ORCID Profile
0000-0002-1048-0138
Current Organisation
Universidade de São Paulo
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Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-07-2023
Abstract: Designing multispecies systems with suitable climatic affinity and identifying species' vulnerability under human‐driven climate change are current challenges to achieve successful adaptation of natural systems. To address this problem, we need to (1) identify groups of species with climatic similarity under climate scenarios and (2) identify areas with high conservation value under predicted climate change. To recognize species with similar climatic niche requirements that can be grouped for mixed cropping in Brazil, we employed ecological niche models (ENMs) and Spearman's ρ for overlap. We also used prioritization algorithms to map areas of high conservation value using two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) to assess mid‐term (2041–2060) and long‐term (2061–2080) climate change impacts. We identified 15 species groups with finer climatic affinities at different times depicted on hierarchical clustering dendrograms, which can be combined into agroecological agroforestry systems. Furthermore, we highlight the climatically suitable areas for these groups of species, thus providing an outlook of where different species will need to be planted over time to be conserved. In addition, we observed that climate change is predicted to modify the spatial association of these groups under different future climate scenarios, causing a mean negative change in species climatic similarity of 9.5% to 13.7% under SSP2‐4.5 scenario and 9.5% to 10.5% under SSP5‐8.5, for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080, respectively. Synthesis and applications . Our findings provide a framework for agroforestry conservation. The groups of species with finer climatic affinities identified and the climatically suitable areas can be combined into agroecological productive systems, and provide an outlook of where different species may be planted over time. In addition, the conservation priority zones displaying high climate stability for each species in idually and all at once can be incorporated into Brazil's conservation plans by policymakers to prioritize specific sites. Lastly, we urge policymakers, conservation organizations and donors to promote interventions involving farmers and local communities, since the species' evaluated have proven to maintain landscapes with productive forest fragments and can be conserved in different Brazilian ecosystems.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-05-2021
DOI: 10.1111/GEB.13309
Abstract: Here we examine the functional profile of regional tree species pools across the latitudinal distribution of Neotropical moist forests, and test trait–climate relationships among local communities. We expected opportunistic strategies (acquisitive traits, small seeds) to be overrepresented in species pools further from the equator, but also in terms of abundance in local communities in currently wetter, warmer and more seasonal climates. Neotropics. Recent. Trees. We obtained abundance data from 471 plots across nine Neotropical regions, including c . 100,000 trees of 3,417 species, in addition to six functional traits. We compared occurrence‐based trait distributions among regional species pools, and evaluated single trait–climate relationships across local communities using community abundance‐weighted means (CWMs). Multivariate trait–climate relationships were assessed by a double‐constrained correspondence analysis that tests both how CWMs relate to climate and how species distributions, parameterized by niche centroids in climate space, relate to their traits. Regional species pools were undistinguished in functional terms, but opportunistic strategies dominated local communities further from the equator, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate explained up to 57% of the variation in CWM traits, with increasing prevalence of lower‐statured, light‐wooded and softer‐leaved species bearing smaller seeds in more seasonal, wetter and warmer climates. Species distributions were significantly but weakly related to functional traits. Neotropical moist forest regions share similar sets of functional strategies, from which local assembly processes, driven by current climatic conditions, select for species with different functional strategies. We can thus expect functional responses to climate change driven by changes in relative abundances of species already present regionally. Particularly, equatorial forests holding the most conservative traits and large seeds are likely to experience the most severe changes if climate change triggers the proliferation of opportunistic tree species.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 30-06-2023
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.16821
Abstract: For more than three decades, major efforts in s ling and analyzing tree ersity in South America have focused almost exclusively on trees with stems of at least 10 and 2.5 cm diameter, showing highest species ersity in the wetter western and northern Amazon forests. By contrast, little attention has been paid to patterns and drivers of ersity in the largest canopy and emergent trees, which is surprising given these have dominant ecological functions. Here, we use a machine learning approach to quantify the importance of environmental factors and apply it to generate spatial predictions of the species ersity of all trees (dbh ≥ 10 cm) and for very large trees (dbh ≥ 70 cm) using data from 243 forest plots (108,450 trees and 2832 species) distributed across different forest types and biogeographic regions of the Brazilian Amazon. The ersity of large trees and of all trees was significantly associated with three environmental factors, but in contrasting ways across regions and forest types. Environmental variables associated with disturbances, for ex le, the lightning flash rate and wind speed, as well as the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation, tend to govern the ersity of large trees. Upland rainforests in the Guiana Shield and Roraima regions had a high ersity of large trees. By contrast, variables associated with resources tend to govern tree ersity in general. Places such as the province of Imeri and the northern portion of the province of Madeira stand out for their high ersity of species in general. Climatic and topographic stability and functional adaptation mechanisms promote ideal conditions for species ersity. Finally, we mapped general patterns of tree species ersity in the Brazilian Amazon, which differ substantially depending on size class.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 23-06-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-020-66686-3
Abstract: Amazonian forests are extraordinarily erse, but the estimated species richness is very much debated. Here, we apply an ensemble of parametric estimators and a novel technique that includes conspecific spatial aggregation to an extended database of forest plots with up-to-date taxonomy. We show that the species abundance distribution of Amazonia is best approximated by a logseries with aggregated in iduals, where aggregation increases with rarity. By averaging several methods to estimate total richness, we confirm that over 15,000 tree species are expected to occur in Amazonia. We also show that using ten times the number of plots would result in an increase to just ~50% of those 15,000 estimated species. To get a more complete s le of all tree species, rigorous field c aigns may be needed but the number of trees in Amazonia will remain an estimate for years to come.
No related grants have been discovered for Renato Augusto Ferreira de Lima.