ORCID Profile
0000-0001-9785-0180
Current Organisation
Universidade de Lisboa
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Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2020
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2019.136452
Abstract: Debris flows are one of the most hazardous types of landslides in mountain regions. In the upper part of the Zêzere valley (Serra da Estrela, Portugal) several debris flows events occurred in the last 200 years, some of them causing loss of lives and material damages. In this work, a methodology for pedestrian evacuation modelling, in a debris flow hazard scenario, was implemented. A dynamic run-out model, developed in previous studies, was used to evaluate the debris flows velocities, thickness of the deposits and extent of the mobilized material. The buildings potentially affected by the impact of debris flows were identified and the potentially exposed population was estimated by applying a dasymetric distribution. The results lead to the conclusion that, in the study area, the elderly are those who are most exposed to debris flows. Furthermore, the time lapse between the debris flows initiation and the arrival at the buildings at risk was estimated, allowing to account for the overall number of buildings where the evacuation time takes longer than the debris flows arrival. Additionally, the safe areas within the study area were identified, and several safe public buildings with the capacity to gather a large number of persons were selected. Considering that the study area is located in a mountain region, characterized by steep slopes, the evacuation modelling was performed based on an anisotropic approach, in order to consider the influence of slope direction on travel costs. At the end, three pedestrian evacuation travel time scenarios, based on different walking speeds to accommodate residents with different ages in safer places, were compared and the results mapped. The implemented methodology is not local dependent, which allows its reproduction elsewhere.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 14-10-2022
DOI: 10.3390/FIRE5050166
Abstract: Wildfire risk assessment provides important tools to fire management, by analysing and aggregating information regarding multiple, interactive dimensions. The three main risk dimensions hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the latter considered in its social dimension, were quantified separately at the local scale for 972 civil parishes in central mainland Portugal and integrated into a wildfire risk index. The importance of each component in the level of risk varied, as assessed by a cluster analysis that established five different groups of parishes, each with a specific profile regarding the relative importance of each dimension. The highest values of wildfire risk are concentrated in the centre-south sector of the study area, with high-risk parishes also dispersed in the northeast. Wildfire risk level is dominated by the hazard component in 52% of the parishes, although with contrasting levels of magnitude. Exposure and social vulnerability dominate together in 32% of the parishes, with the latter being the main risk driver in only 17%. The proposed methodology allows for an integrated, multilevel assessment of wildfire risk, facilitating the effective allocation of resources and the adjustment of risk reduction policies to the specific reality in each parish that results from distinct combinations of the wildfire risk dimensions.
Publisher: RISCOS - Associação Portuguesa de Riscos, Prevenção e Segurança
Date: 08-09-2021
DOI: 10.34037/978-989-9053-06-9_1.2_06
Abstract: Um índice de risco de incêndio foi aplicado às 972 freguesias da região Centro de Portugal Continental, integrando três dimensões: perigosidade, exposição e vulnerabilidade social. As freguesias do setor centro-sul apresentam níveis de risco mais elevados. Os padrões espaciais variam para cada dimensão a vulnerabilidade mais elevada ocorre nas freguesias dos setores oriental e centro-sul, enquanto a perigosidade mais alta se localiza numa faixa N-S no setor central da região. As estratégias de redução de risco devem ser ajustadas de acordo com a relevância de cada dimensão.
Location: Portugal
Location: Portugal
No related grants have been discovered for Pedro Pinto Santos.