ORCID Profile
0000-0003-1172-8243
Current Organisation
University of Oxford
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Publisher: Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Date: 08-2014
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2016
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 10-02-2020
DOI: 10.1093/NDT/GFAA008
Abstract: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major contributor to morbidity and mortality in people on hemodialysis (HD). Cardiovascular outcomes are reported infrequently and inconsistently across trials in HD. This study aimed to identify the priorities of patients/caregivers and health professionals (HPs) for CVD outcomes to be incorporated into a core outcome set reported in all HD trials. In an international online survey, participants rated the absolute importance of 10 cardiovascular outcomes (derived from a systematic review) on a 9-point Likert scale, with 7–9 being critically important. The relative importance was determined using a best–worst scale. Likert means, medians and proportions and best–worst preference scores were calculated for each outcome. Comments were thematically analyzed. Participants included 127 (19%) patients/caregivers and 549 (81%) HPs from 53 countries, of whom 530 (78%) completed the survey in English and 146 (22%) in Chinese. All but one cardiovascular outcome (‘valve replacement’) was rated as critically important (Likert 7–9) by all participants ‘sudden cardiac death’, ‘heart attack’, ‘stroke’ and ‘heart failure’ were all rated at the top by patients/caregivers (median Likert score 9). Patients/caregivers ranked the same four outcomes as the most important outcomes with mean preference scores of 6.2 (95% confidence interval 4.8–7.5), 5.9 (4.6–7.2), 5.3 (4.0–6.6) and 4.9 (3.6–6.3), respectively. The same four outcomes were ranked most highly by HPs. We identified five themes underpinning the prioritization of outcomes: ‘clinical equipoise and potential for intervention’, ‘specific or attributable to HD’, ‘severity or impact on the quality of life’, ‘strengthen knowledge and education’, and ‘inextricably linked burden and risk’. Patients and HPs believe that all cardiovascular outcomes are of critical importance but consistently identify sudden cardiac death, myocardial infarction, stroke and heart failure as the most important outcomes to be measured in all HD trials.
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 24-01-2023
DOI: 10.1093/EURHEARTJ/EHAC825
Abstract: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Less is known about how CVD associates with future risk of kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT). The study included 25 903 761 in iduals from the CKD Prognosis Consortium with known baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and evaluated the impact of prevalent and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF) events as time-varying exposures on KFRT outcomes. Mean age was 53 (standard deviation 17) years and mean eGFR was 89 mL/min/1.73 m2, 15% had diabetes and 8.4% had urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) available (median 13 mg/g) 9.5% had prevalent CHD, 3.2% prior stroke, 3.3% HF, and 4.4% prior AF. During follow-up, there were 269 142 CHD, 311 021 stroke, 712 556 HF, and 605 596 AF incident events and 101 044 (0.4%) patients experienced KFRT. Both prevalent and incident CVD were associated with subsequent KFRT with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.9–3.3], 2.0 (1.9–2.1), 4.5 (4.2–4.9), 2.8 (2.7–3.1) after incident CHD, stroke, HF and AF, respectively. HRs were highest in first 3 months post-CVD incidence declining to baseline after 3 years. Incident HF hospitalizations showed the strongest association with KFRT [HR 46 (95% CI: 43–50) within 3 months] after adjustment for other CVD subtype incidence. Incident CVD events strongly and independently associate with future KFRT risk, most notably after HF, then CHD, stroke, and AF. Optimal strategies for addressing the dramatic risk of KFRT following CVD events are needed.
Publisher: Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Date: 30-10-2020
Abstract: Conventional epidemiology associates increased body mass index (BMI) with higher risk of CKD. Diabetes and high BP explain half of the association. However, residual confounding factors preclude causal inferences and impede mediation assessments. A genetic approach (Mendelian randomization) may overcome these limitations. Analyses of 281,228 genotyped UK Biobank participants identified positive independent genetic associations between central and general adiposity with CKD, suggesting both are causal risk factors. Conventional approaches underestimate the role of known mediators. Diabetes and BP (and correlates) explain % of genetic associations between waist-to-hip ratio and CKD and two-thirds between BMI and CKD. In people without diabetes, obesity appeared to cause CKD. BP accounted for about half of the BMI-CKD associations. The size of any causal contribution of central and general adiposity to CKD risk and the underlying mechanism of mediation are unknown. Data from 281,228 UK Biobank participants were used to estimate the relevance of waist-to-hip ratio and body mass index (BMI) to CKD prevalence. Conventional approaches used logistic regression. Genetic analyses used Mendelian randomization (MR) and data from 394 waist-to-hip ratio and 773 BMI-associated loci. Models assessed the role of known mediators (diabetes mellitus and BP) by adjusting for measured values (conventional analyses) or genetic associations of the selected loci (multivariable MR). Evidence of CKD was found in 18,034 (6.4%) participants. Each 0.06 higher measured waist-to-hip ratio and each 5-kg/m 2 increase in BMI were associated with 69% (odds ratio, 1.69 95% CI, 1.64 to 1.74) and 58% (1.58 1.55 to 1.62) higher odds of CKD, respectively. In analogous MR analyses, each 0.06–genetically-predicted higher waist-to-hip ratio was associated with a 29% (1.29 1.20 to 1.38) increased odds of CKD, and each 5-kg/m 2 genetically-predicted higher BMI was associated with a 49% (1.49 1.39 to 1.59) increased odds. After adjusting for diabetes and measured BP, chi-squared values for associations for waist-to-hip ratio and BMI fell by 56%. In contrast, mediator adjustment using multivariable MR found 83% and 69% reductions in chi-squared values for genetically-predicted waist-to-hip ratio and BMI models, respectively. Genetic analyses suggest that conventional associations between central and general adiposity with CKD are largely causal. However, conventional approaches underestimate mediating roles of diabetes, BP, and their correlates. Genetic approaches suggest these mediators explain most of adiposity-CKD–associated risk.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2012
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2014
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2015
Publisher: Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Date: 05-2014
DOI: 10.2215/CJN.10371013
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-07-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41366-020-0642-3
Abstract: Whether measures of central adiposity are more or less strongly associated with risk of albuminuria than body mass index (BMI), and by how much diabetes/levels of glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) explain or modify these associations, is uncertain. Ordinal logistic regression was used to estimate associations between values of central adiposity (waist-to-hip ratio) and, separately, general adiposity (BMI) with categories of urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) in 408,527 UK Biobank participants. Separate central and general adiposity-based models were initially adjusted for potential confounders and measurement error, then sequentially, models were mutually adjusted (e.g. waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI, and vice versa), and finally they were adjusted for potential mediators. Levels of albuminuria were generally low: 20,425 (5%) had a uACR ≥3 mg/mmol. After adjustment for confounders and measurement error, each 0.06 higher waist-to-hip ratio was associated with a 55% (95%CI 53–57%) increase in the odds of being in a higher uACR category. After adjustment for baseline BMI, this association was reduced to 32% (30–34%). Each 5 kg/m 2 higher BMI was associated with a 47% (46–49%) increase in the odds of being in a higher uACR category. Adjustment for baseline waist-to-hip ratio reduced this association to 35% (33–37%). Those with higher HbA1c were at progressively higher odds of albuminuria, but positive associations between both waist-to-hip ratio and BMI were apparent irrespective of HbA1c. Altogether, about 40% of central adiposity associations appeared to be mediated by diabetes, vascular disease and blood pressure. Conventional epidemiological approaches suggest that higher waist-to-hip ratio and BMI are independently positively associated with albuminuria. Adiposity–albuminuria associations appear strong among people with normal HbA1c, as well as people with pre-diabetes or diabetes.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-04-2015
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 29-05-2023
DOI: 10.1093/EURHEARTJ/EHAD260
Abstract: To develop and validate a recalibrated prediction model (SCORE2-Diabetes) to estimate the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in in iduals with type 2 diabetes in Europe. SCORE2-Diabetes was developed by extending SCORE2 algorithms using in idual-participant data from four large-scale datasets comprising 229 460 participants (43 706 CVD events) with type 2 diabetes and without previous CVD. Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models were used including conventional risk factors (i.e. age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total, and HDL-cholesterol), as well as diabetes-related variables (i.e. age at diabetes diagnosis, glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c] and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]). Models were recalibrated to CVD incidence in four European risk regions. External validation included 217 036 further in iduals (38 602 CVD events), and showed good discrimination, and improvement over SCORE2 (C-index change from 0.009 to 0.031). Regional calibration was satisfactory. SCORE2-Diabetes risk predictions varied several-fold, depending on in iduals’ levels of diabetes-related factors. For ex le, in the moderate-risk region, the estimated 10-year CVD risk was 11% for a 60-year-old man, non-smoker, with type 2 diabetes, average conventional risk factors, HbA1c of 50 mmol/mol, eGFR of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 60 years. By contrast, the estimated risk was 17% in a similar man, with HbA1c of 70 mmol/mol, eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 50 years. For a woman with the same characteristics, the risk was 8% and 13%, respectively. SCORE2-Diabetes, a new algorithm developed, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of CVD in in iduals with type 2 diabetes, enhances identification of in iduals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2016
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2016
Publisher: Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Date: 02-2022
Abstract: GFR slope has been proposed as a surrogate endpoint for progression to kidney failure in clinical trials studying patients with CKD. Acute or immediate effects on GFR after treatment initiation may complicate the interpretation of long-term treatment effects. In this large meta-analysis of 53 randomized clinical studies of CKD progression, the authors found the magnitude and nature of acute effects are variable across different interventions and may be larger at a higher baseline GFR. Negative acute effects (such as an acute reduction in GFR) were observed in trials of renin-angiotensin system blockade and BP lowering, whereas positive acute effects were more common in trials of immunosuppressive therapies. Such information can inform the optimal design and analysis plan for randomized clinical trials in CKD. Acute changes in GFR can occur after initiation of interventions targeting progression of CKD. These acute changes complicate the interpretation of long-term treatment effects. To assess the magnitude and consistency of acute effects in randomized clinical trials and explore factors that might affect them, we performed a meta-analysis of 53 randomized clinical trials for CKD progression, enrolling 56,413 participants with at least one estimated GFR measurement by 6 months after randomization. We defined acute treatment effects as the mean difference in GFR slope from baseline to 3 months between randomized groups. We performed univariable and multivariable metaregression to assess the effect of intervention type, disease state, baseline GFR, and albuminuria on the magnitude of acute effects. The mean acute effect across all studies was −0.21 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 (95% confidence interval, −0.63 to 0.22) over 3 months, with substantial heterogeneity across interventions (95% coverage interval across studies, −2.50 to +2.08 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ). We observed negative average acute effects in renin angiotensin system blockade, BP lowering, and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor trials, and positive acute effects in trials of immunosuppressive agents. Larger negative acute effects were observed in trials with a higher mean baseline GFR. The magnitude and consistency of acute GFR effects vary across different interventions, and are larger at higher baseline GFR. Understanding the nature and magnitude of acute effects can help inform the optimal design of randomized clinical trials evaluating disease progression in CKD.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for William Herrington.