ORCID Profile
0000-0003-4834-5641
Current Organisations
Utrecht University
,
Universiteit Utrecht
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Research Topics
In Research Link Australia (RLA), "Research Topics" refer to ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes. These topics are either sourced from ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes listed in researchers' related grants or generated by a large language model (LLM) based on their publications.
Top 5 Research Topics
ANZSRC Field of Research (FoR)
Environmental Science and Management | Conservation and Biodiversity | Natural Resource Management | Spatial Information Systems | Economic Models and Forecasting | Information Systems Development Methodologies | Public Health and Health Services | Epidemiology | Health Information Systems (Incl. Surveillance) | Optimisation | Environmental Management And Rehabilitation | Agricultural Economics | Environment and Resource Economics | Demography | Ecological Impacts of Climate Change | Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Environmental Knowledge | Applied Economics | Environmental Impact Assessment | Environmental Management | Landscape Ecology | Conservation And Biodiversity | Population Trends And Policies | Family And Household Studies | Fertility |
ANZSRC Socio-Economic Objective (SEO)
Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity at Regional or Larger Scales | Economic Incentives for Environmental Protection | Ecosystem Assessment and Management at Regional or Larger Scales | Institutional Arrangements for Environmental Protection | Trade Policy | Families | Border Biosecurity (incl. Quarantine and Inspection) | Climate Change Mitigation Strategies | Application packages | Health related to ageing | Land and water management | Marine protected areas | Integrated (ecosystem) assessment and management | Rural health | Rehabilitation/reafforestation | Remnant Vegetation and Protected Conservation Areas in Farmland, Arable Cropland and Permanent Cropland Environments | Consumption patterns, population issues and the environment | Environmental health | Behaviour and health | Trade and Environment
Related Links
Publications
Robust global sensitivity analysis under deep uncertainty via scenario analysis
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2016
Inequality in access to cultural ecosystem services from protected areas in the Chilean biodiversity hotspot
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2018
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2018.04.353
Abstract: Experiences with nature through visits to protected areas provide important cultural ecosystem services that have the potential to strengthen pro-environmental attitudes and behavior. Understanding accessibility to protected areas and likely preferences for enjoying the benefits of nature visits are key factors in identifying ways to reduce inequality in access and inform the planning and management for future protected areas. We develop, at a regional scale, a novel social media database of visits to public protected areas in part of the Chilean bio ersity hotspot using geotagged photographs and assess the inequality of access using the home locations of the visitors and socio-economic data. We find that 20% of the population of the region make 87% of the visits to protected areas. The larger, more bio erse protected areas were the most visited and provided most cultural ecosystem services. Wealthier people tend to travel further to visit protected areas while people with lower incomes tend to visit protected areas that are closer to home. By providing information on the current spatial flows of people to protected areas, we demonstrate the need to expand the protected area network, especially in lower income areas, to reduce inequality in access to the benefits from cultural ecosystem services provided by nature to people.
Land use efficiency: Anticipating future demand for land-sector greenhouse gas emissions abatement and managing trade-offs with agriculture, water, and biodiversity
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 23-09-2015
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.13020
Abstract: Competition for land is increasing, and policy needs to ensure the efficient supply of multiple ecosystem services from land systems. We modelled the spatially explicit potential future supply of ecosystem services in Australia's intensive agricultural land in response to carbon markets under four global outlooks from 2013 to 2050. We assessed the productive efficiency of greenhouse gas emissions abatement, agricultural production, water resources, and bio ersity services and compared these to production possibility frontiers (PPFs). While interacting commodity markets and carbon markets produced efficient outcomes for agricultural production and emissions abatement, more efficient outcomes were possible for water resources and bio ersity services due to weak price signals. However, when only two objectives were considered as per typical efficiency assessments, efficiency improvements involved significant unintended trade-offs for the other objectives and incurred substantial opportunity costs. Considering multiple objectives simultaneously enabled the identification of land use arrangements that were efficient over multiple ecosystem services. Efficient land use arrangements could be selected that meet society's preferences for ecosystem service provision from land by adjusting the metric used to combine multiple services. To effectively manage competition for land via land use efficiency, market incentives are needed that effectively price multiple ecosystem services.
From Water-Use to Water-Scarcity Footprinting in Environmentally Extended Input–Output Analysis
Publisher: American Chemical Society (ACS)
Date: 18-05-2018
Abstract: Environmentally extended input-output analysis (EEIOA) supports environmental policy by quantifying how demand for goods and services leads to resource use and emissions across the economy. However, some types of resource use and emissions require spatially explicit impact assessment for meaningful interpretation, which is not possible in conventional EEIOA. For ex le, water use in locations of scarcity and of abundance are not environmentally equivalent. Opportunities for spatially explicit impact assessment in conventional EEIOA are limited because official input-output tables tend to be produced at the scale of political units, which are not usually well-aligned with environmentally relevant spatial units. In this study, spatially explicit water-scarcity factors and a spatially disaggregated Australian water-use account were used to develop water-scarcity extensions that were coupled with a multiregional input-output model (MRIO). The results link demand for agricultural commodities to the problem of water scarcity in Australia and globally. Important differences were observed between the water-use and water-scarcity footprint results as well as the relative importance of direct and indirect water use, with significant implications for sustainable production and consumption-related policies. The approach presented here is suggested as a feasible general approach for incorporating spatially explicit impact assessments in EEIOA.
Uncertainty Assessment of Hyperspectral Image Classification: Deep Learning vs. Random Forest
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 16-01-2019
DOI: 10.3390/E21010078
Abstract: Uncertainty assessment techniques have been extensively applied as an estimate of accuracy to compensate for weaknesses with traditional approaches. Traditional approaches to mapping accuracy assessment have been based on a confusion matrix, and hence are not only dependent on the availability of test data but also incapable of capturing the spatial variation in classification error. Here, we apply and compare two uncertainty assessment techniques that do not rely on test data availability and enable the spatial characterisation of classification accuracy before the validation phase, promoting the assessment of error propagation within the classified imagery products. We compared the performance of emerging deep neural network (DNN) with the popular random forest (RF) technique. Uncertainty assessment was implemented by calculating the Shannon entropy of class probabilities predicted by DNN and RF for every pixel. The classification uncertainties of DNN and RF were quantified for two different hyperspectral image datasets—Salinas and Indian Pines. We then compared the uncertainty against the classification accuracy of the techniques represented by a modified root mean square error (RMSE). The results indicate that considering modified RMSE values for various s le sizes of both datasets, the derived entropy based on the DNN algorithm is a better estimate of classification accuracy and hence provides a superior uncertainty estimate at the pixel level.
Real options analysis for land use management: Methods, application, and implications for policy
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2015
DOI: 10.1016/J.JENVMAN.2015.07.004
Abstract: Discounted cash flow analysis, including net present value is an established way to value land use and management investments which accounts for the time-value of money. However, it provides a static view and assumes passive commitment to an investment strategy when real world land use and management investment decisions are characterised by uncertainty, irreversibility, change, and adaptation. Real options analysis has been proposed as a better valuation method under uncertainty and where the opportunity exists to delay investment decisions, pending more information. We briefly review the use of discounted cash flow methods in land use and management and discuss their benefits and limitations. We then provide an overview of real options analysis, describe the main analytical methods, and summarize its application to land use investment decisions. Real options analysis is largely underutilized in evaluating land use decisions, despite uncertainty in policy and economic drivers, the irreversibility and sunk costs involved. New simulation methods offer the potential for overcoming current technical challenges to implementation as demonstrated with a real options simulation model used to evaluate an agricultural land use decision in South Australia. We conclude that considering option values in future policy design will provide a more realistic assessment of landholder investment decision making and provide insights for improved policy performance.
Systematic landscape restoration in the rural–urban fringe: meeting conservation planning and policy goals
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-06-2007
Modelling Australian land use competition and ecosystem services with food price feedbacks at high spatial resolution
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2015
Linking Responsible Consumption and Production: A Global Assessment of Cropland Use for Agri-Food Production
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 13-01-2021
DOI: 10.20944/PREPRINTS202101.0237.V1
Abstract: Sustainable Development Goal 12 requires countries to achieve responsible consumption and production patterns without exceeding safe environmental limits for natural resource use. However, little is known about how cropland impacts from the agri-food sector contribute to the exceedance of national environmental limits for consumption and production. Using a multi-regional input-output model, we linked the cropland impacts of agri-food production to countries of consumption while considering the exceedance of production-based and consumption-based environmental limits. We defined national consumption-based environmental limits via the fair-share approach and quantified national production-based environmental limits according to the biophysical limit of available arable land. We then classified countries into quadrants according to their exceedance of consumption and/or production environmental limits. We found that the USA, Australia and other high-income countries were exceeding both consumption-based and production-based environmental limits. High-population but low-income countries such as India and China were within safe consumption-based environmental limits but exceeded production-based environmental limits. Brazil and other countries of the Americas incurred substantial environmental costs due to the conversion of forests into cropland to produce food for export. We identified patterns in international trade relationships that could inform national-level responsible agri-food consumption and production patterns across the global supply chain, thereby contributing to Sustainable Development Goal 12. More stringent regulations and commitments in national and international policies are required to reduce the exceedance of consumption-based and production-based environmental limits and avoid exceeding the global land-system change planetary boundary.
Comparing Spatially Explicit Ecological and Social Values for Natural Areas to Identify Effective Conservation Strategies
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 02-09-2010
DOI: 10.1111/J.1523-1739.2010.01560.X
Abstract: Consideration of the social values people assign to relatively undisturbed native ecosystems is critical for the success of science-based conservation plans. We used an interview process to identify and map social values assigned to 31 ecosystem services provided by natural areas in an agricultural landscape in southern Australia. We then modeled the spatial distribution of 12 components of ecological value commonly used in setting spatial conservation priorities. We used the analytical hierarchy process to weight these components and used multiattribute utility theory to combine them into a single spatial layer of ecological value. Social values assigned to natural areas were negatively correlated with ecological values overall, but were positively correlated with some components of ecological value. In terms of the spatial distribution of values, people valued protected areas, whereas those natural areas underrepresented in the reserve system were of higher ecological value. The habitats of threatened animal species were assigned both high ecological value and high social value. Only small areas were assigned both high ecological value and high social value in the study area, whereas large areas of high ecological value were of low social value, and vice versa. We used the assigned ecological and social values to identify different conservation strategies (e.g., information sharing, community engagement, incentive payments) that may be effective for specific areas. We suggest that consideration of both ecological and social values in selection of conservation strategies can enhance the success of science-based conservation planning.
The costs of reforestation: A spatial model of the costs of establishing environmental and carbon plantings
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2015
Frequent policy uncertainty can negate the benefits of forest conservation policy
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2018
Financial inclusion may limit sustainable development under economic globalization and climate change
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 05-2021
Abstract: Financial inclusion is a key policy for achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals worldwide. However, emerging evidence has challenged the universal effectiveness of this policy. Combining a cross-sectional socio-economic and ecological survey with regional macro-economic and climatic data, we undertook an integrated causal analysis of the impact of financial inclusion policy on the Inner Mongolian herder social-ecological system. Exposure to economic globalization and climate change threatened herder livelihoods via increased feed costs and reduced livestock sales prices. Financial inclusion loans were beneficial for herders with large grassland plot size who used their traditional ecological knowledge to adapt via seasonal herd mobility. However, most herders were sedentary, constrained by small plot size, and used financial inclusion loans to reserve livestock and maintain high stocking densities. This strategy exposed them to inflated feed costs, increased their debt, and led to widespread grassland degradation. The results illustrate the limitations of financial inclusion policy in achieving sustainable development when people are trapped in poverty, subject to novel social-ecological contexts, and their ability to adapt is compromised. Transformative adaptations based on community cooperation, traditional knowledge and institutions, complementary public policies, and technological innovation are crucial to support financial inclusion policy and enhance sustainable development.
Agricultural land-use dynamics: Assessing the relative importance of socioeconomic and biophysical drivers for more targeted policy
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2017
Identifying strengths and weaknesses of landscape visualisation for effective communication of future alternatives
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2011
Making decisions for managing ecosystem services
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2015
Sensitivity in Ecological Modeling
Publisher: Elsevier
Date: 2017
Pesticide Toxicity Hazard of Agriculture: Regional and Commodity Hotspots in Australia
Publisher: American Chemical Society (ACS)
Date: 06-01-2021
Articulating the impact of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2021
Spatiotemporal trends in adequacy of dietary nutrient production and food sources
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2020
Publisher Correction: Climate-friendly and nutrition-sensitive interventions can close the global dietary nutrient gap while reducing GHG emission
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-01-2023
Projecting the performance of conservation interventions
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2017
Potential impact of climate change on wheat yield in South Australia
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2005
Making China’s water data accessible, usable and shareable
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-04-2023
Mapping agriculture's impact by combining farm management handbooks, life-cycle assessment and search engine science
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2016
A Robust Rule-Based Ensemble Framework Using Mean-Shift Segmentation for Hyperspectral Image Classification
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 09-2019
DOI: 10.3390/RS11172057
Abstract: This paper assesses the performance of DoTRules—a dictionary of trusted rules—as a supervised rule-based ensemble framework based on the mean-shift segmentation for hyperspectral image classification. The proposed ensemble framework consists of multiple rule sets with rules constructed based on different class frequencies and sequences of occurrences. Shannon entropy was derived for assessing the uncertainty of every rule and the subsequent filtering of unreliable rules. DoTRules is not only a transparent approach for image classification but also a tool to map rule uncertainty, where rule uncertainty assessment can be applied as an estimate of classification accuracy prior to image classification. In this research, the proposed image classification framework is implemented using three world reference hyperspectral image datasets. We found that the overall accuracy of classification using the proposed ensemble framework was superior to state-of-the-art ensemble algorithms, as well as two non-ensemble algorithms, at multiple training s le sizes. We believe DoTRules can be applied more generally to the classification of discrete data such as hyperspectral satellite imagery products.
What Actually Confers Adaptive Capacity? Insights from Agro-Climatic Vulnerability of Australian Wheat
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 10-02-2015
Automatic calibration of a whole-of-basin water accounting model using a comprehensive learning particle swarm optimiser
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2020
Unravelling the effects of large-scale ecological programs on ecological rehabilitation of China’s Three Gorges Dam
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2020
Agricultural commodity mapping for land use change assessment and environmental management: an application in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 31-08-2009
Expanding the Role of Targets in Conservation Policy
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2018
DOI: 10.1016/J.TREE.2018.08.014
Abstract: Conservation targets perform beneficial auxiliary functions that are rarely acknowledged, including raising awareness, building partnerships, promoting investment, and developing new knowledge. Building on these auxiliary functions could enable more rapid progress towards current targets and inform the design of future targets.
Australia is ‘free to choose’ economic growth and falling environmental pressures
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-2015
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE16065
Abstract: Over two centuries of economic growth have put undeniable pressure on the ecological systems that underpin human well-being. While it is agreed that these pressures are increasing, views ide on how they may be alleviated. Some suggest technological advances will automatically keep us from transgressing key environmental thresholds others that policy reform can reconcile economic and ecological goals while a third school argues that only a fundamental shift in societal values can keep human demands within the Earth's ecological limits. Here we use novel integrated analysis of the energy-water-food nexus, rural land use (including bio ersity), material flows and climate change to explore whether mounting ecological pressures in Australia can be reversed, while the population grows and living standards improve. We show that, in the right circumstances, economic and environmental outcomes can be decoupled. Although economic growth is strong across all scenarios, environmental performance varies widely: pressures are projected to more than double, stabilize or fall markedly by 2050. However, we find no evidence that decoupling will occur automatically. Nor do we find that a shift in societal values is required. Rather, extensions of current policies that mobilize technology and incentivize reduced pressure account for the majority of differences in environmental performance. Our results show that Australia can make great progress towards sustainable prosperity, if it chooses to do so.
Impacts of rapid urbanization on ecosystem services along urban-rural gradients: a case study of the Guangzhou-Foshan Metropolitan Area, South China
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 13-03-2018
A biodiversity-crisis hierarchy to evaluate and refine conservation indicators
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-03-2018
DOI: 10.1038/S41559-018-0504-8
Abstract: The Convention on Biological Diversity and its Strategic Plan for Bio ersity 2011-2020 form the central pillar of the world's conservation commitment, with 196 signatory nations yet its capacity to reign in catastrophic bio ersity loss has proved inadequate. Indicators suggest that few of the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi targets that aim to reduce bio ersity loss will be met by 2020. While the indicators have been criticized for only partially representing the targets, a bigger problem is that the indicators do not adequately draw attention to and measure all of the drivers of the bio ersity crisis. Here, we show that many key drivers of bio ersity loss are either poorly evaluated or entirely lacking indicators. We use a bio ersity-crisis hierarchy as a conceptual model linking drivers of change to bio ersity loss to evaluate the scope of current indicators. We find major gaps related to monitoring governments, human population size, corruption and threat-industries. We recommend the hierarchy is used to develop an expanded set of indicators that comprehensively monitor the human behaviour and institutions that drive bio ersity loss and that, so far, have impeded progress towards achieving global bio ersity targets.
Forest transition in developed agricultural regions needs efficient regulatory policy
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2018
Mapping Built-Up Land with High Accuracy Using Fourier Transformation and Temporal Correction
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 04-12-2020
DOI: 10.20944/PREPRINTS202012.0105.V1
Abstract: Long-term, high-accuracy mapping of built-up land dynamics is essential for understanding urbanization and its consequences for the environment. Despite advances in remote sensing and classification algorithms, built-up land mapping using early satellite imagery (e.g., from the 2000s and earlier) remains prone to uncertainty. We mapped the extent of built-up land in the North China Plain, one of China& rsquo s most important agricultural regions, from 1990 to 2019 at three-year intervals. Using dense time-stack Landsat data, we applied discrete Fourier transformation to create temporal predictors and reduce mapping uncertainties for early years. We improved overall accuracy by 8% compared to using spectral and indices predictors alone. We implemented a temporal correction algorithm to remove inconsistent pixel classifications, further improving accuracy to a consistently high level (& %) across years. A cross-product comparison showed that our study achieved the highest levels of accuracy across years. Total built-up land in the North China Plain increased from 37,941 km2 in 1990& ndash to 131,578 km2 in 2017& ndash . Consistent, high-accuracy built-up land mapping provides a reliable basis for policy planning in one of the most rapidly urbanizing regions of the planet.
Land-use and sustainability under intersecting global change and domestic policy scenarios: Trajectories for Australia to 2050
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2016
Improving the assessment of food system sustainability
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2019
Projecting Australia's forest cover dynamics and exploring influential factors using deep learning
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2019
Spatial and temporal patterns of land clearing during policy change
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2018
Scenarios for land use and ecosystem services under global change
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2017
Quantifying the Safe Operating Space for Land‐System SDG Achievement via Machine Learning and Scenario Discovery
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2022EF003083
Abstract: We developed a machine learning based surrogate model to identify sustainability pathways through rapid scenario generation and defined the safe operating space for achieving them via scenario discovery. We trained a surrogate model to replicate the Land‐Use Trade‐Offs integrated model of the Australian land system. Latin hypercube s ling was used to create many scenarios exploring the impact of uncertainties in key drivers including future socio‐economic development, climate change mitigation, and agricultural productivity at a granular level. Economic and environmental impacts were evaluated against nationally downscaled SDG targets. Scenario discovery revealed new pathways to achieving five SDG targets for 2050 which required crop yield increases above 1.78 times, a carbon price above 100 AU$ tCO 2 −1 , a % bio ersity levy on carbon plantings, and carefully regulated land‐use policy. Machine learning based surrogate modeling teamed with scenario discovery revealed the policy and scenario settings required for a more sustainable future for the Australian land sector.
A conservation industry for sustaining natural capital and ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2010
Recent responses of grassland net primary productivity to climatic and anthropogenic factors in Kyrgyzstan
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 19-05-2020
DOI: 10.1002/LDR.3623
Nonparametric machine learning for mapping forest cover and exploring influential factors
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-06-2020
China’s response to a national land-system sustainability emergency
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-2018
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-018-0280-2
Abstract: China has responded to a national land-system sustainability emergency via an integrated portfolio of large-scale programmes. Here we review 16 sustainability programmes, which invested US$378.5 billion (in 2015 US$), covered 623.9 million hectares of land and involved over 500 million people, mostly since 1998. We find overwhelmingly that the interventions improved the sustainability of China's rural land systems, but the impacts are nuanced and adverse outcomes have occurred. We identify some key characteristics of programme success, potential risks to their durability, and future research needs. We suggest directions for China and other nations as they progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations' Agenda 2030.
Structuring and evaluating decision support processes to enhance the robustness of complex human-natural systems
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2020
Reconfiguring an irrigation landscape to improve provision of ecosystem services
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2010
China’s progress towards sustainable land development and ecological civilization
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-08-2018
A review of systems modelling for local sustainability
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 11-2021
Abstract: The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent a holistic and ambitious agenda for transforming the world towards societal well-being, economic prosperity, and environmental protection. Achieving the SDGs is, however, challenged by the performance of interconnected sectors and the complexity of their interactions which drive non-linear system responses, tipping points, and spillover effects. Systems modelling, as an integrated way of thinking about and modelling multisectoral dynamics, can help explain how feedback interactions within and among different sectors can lead to broader system transformation and progress towards the SDGs. Here, we review how system dynamics, as a prominent systems modelling approach, can inform and contribute to sustainability research and implementation, framed by the SDGs. We systematically analyse 357 system dynamics studies undertaken at the local scale where the most important SDG impacts and their initiators are often located, published between 2015 (i.e. SDGs’ inception) and 2020. We analyse the studies to illuminate strengths and limitations in four key areas: ersity of scope interdisciplinarity of the approaches the role of stakeholder participation and the analysis of SDG interactions. Our review highlights opportunities for a better consideration of societal aspects of sustainable development (e.g. poverty, inequality) in modelling efforts integrating with new interdisciplinary methods to leverage system dynamics modelling capabilities improving genuine stakeholder engagement for credibility and impacts on the ground and a more in-depth analysis of SDG interactions (i.e. synergies and trade-offs) with the feedback-rich structure of system dynamics models.
A novel algorithm for calculating transition potential in cellular automata models of land-use/cover change
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2019
Designer policy for carbon and biodiversity co-benefits under global change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-11-2015
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2874
Parallelization and optimization of spatial analysis for large scale environmental model data assembly
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2012
School Belonging and the Role of Social and Emotional Competencies in Fostering an Adolescent’s Sense of Connectedness to Their School
Publisher: Springer Singapore
Date: 2017
The second industrial transformation of Australian landscapes
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2013
Incorporating deep uncertainty into the elementary effects method for robust global sensitivity analysis
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2016
Changes in land-use and ecosystem services in the Guangzhou-Foshan Metropolitan Area, China from 1990 to 2010: Implications for sustainability under rapid urbanization
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2018
Reframing Water-Related Ecosystem Services Flows
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 12-01-2021
DOI: 10.20944/PREPRINTS202101.0210.V1
Abstract: To sustain water-dependent economic and socio-ecological systems, natural capital and its interactions with other capitals is gaining attention, but a clear understanding of how to manage natural capital sustainably and how to make decisions relevant to water-related ecosystem services is yet to be achieved. In this study, we extended the framing of water-related ecosystem service flows as a cycle, integrating water quantity and quality and capturing the flows of ecosystem services (i.e., green phase) and ecosystem disservices (i.e., red phase), and connecting natural capital, built capital, and beneficiaries. We applied this framework to the Jiulong River watershed in China, using hydrological models to model water quantity and quality based on historical observations and experimental data. Our results showed that, during the green phase, the interactions of natural capital and built capital significantly improved water quality in downstream areas with higher flows. During the red phase, built capital reduced ecosystem disservices by ~10% while natural capital further reduced it by over one half. Our framework can provide information for natural capital management, eco-compensation, and pollutant management relevant to water-related ecosystem services.
Regional engagement and spatial modelling for natural resource management planning
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-10-2015
Resilience of smallholder cropping to climatic variability
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2020
Quantitative and visual assessments of climate change impacts on South Australian wheat production
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2003
Survey data on climate change adaptation and barriers to adoption among smallholder farmers in Nepal
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2021
Contributions of non-timber forest products to people in mountain ecosystems and impacts of recent climate change
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 2021
Projected social costs of CO2 emissions from forest losses far exceed the sequestration benefits of forest gains under global change
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2019
Mixed policies give more options in multifunctional tropical forest landscapes
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-04-2017
Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia's agricultural land under global change
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2014
Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: a review
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-09-2017
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.13457
Abstract: Climate change is having a significant impact on ecosystem services and is likely to become increasingly important as this phenomenon intensifies. Future impacts can be difficult to assess as they often involve long timescales, dynamic systems with high uncertainties, and are typically confounded by other drivers of change. Despite a growing literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services, no quantitative syntheses exist. Hence, we lack an overarching understanding of the impacts of climate change, how they are being assessed, and the extent to which other drivers, uncertainties, and decision making are incorporated. To address this, we systematically reviewed the peer-reviewed literature that assesses climate change impacts on ecosystem services at subglobal scales. We found that the impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative (59% negative, 24% mixed, 4% neutral, 13% positive), but varied across services, drivers, and assessment methods. Although uncertainty was usually incorporated, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included, along with the methods used to incorporate them. We found that relatively few studies integrated decision making, and even fewer studies aimed to identify solutions that were robust to uncertainty. For management or policy to ensure the delivery of ecosystem services, integrated approaches that incorporate multiple drivers of change and account for multiple sources of uncertainty are needed. This is undoubtedly a challenging task, but ignoring these complexities can result in misleading assessments of the impacts of climate change, suboptimal management outcomes, and the inefficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation.
Managing too little to too much water: robust mine-water management strategies under variable climate and mine conditions
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2017
Better land-use allocation outperforms land sparing and land sharing approaches to conservation in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2015
Mapping economic returns to agriculture for informing environmental policy in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-04-2009
Meta-modeling soil organic carbon sequestration potential and its application at regional scale
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-2013
DOI: 10.1890/12-0672.1
Abstract: Upscaling the results from process-based soil-plant models to assess regional soil organic carbon (SOC) change and sequestration potential is a great challenge due to the lack of detailed spatial information, particularly soil properties. Meta-modeling can be used to simplify and summarize process-based models and significantly reduce the demand for input data and thus could be easily applied on regional scales. We used the pre-validated Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) to simulate the impact of climate, soil, and management on SOC at 613 reference sites across Australia's cereal-growing regions under a continuous wheat system. We then developed a simple meta-model to link the APSIM-modeled SOC change to primary drivers, i.e., the amount of recalcitrant SOC, plant available water capacity of soil, soil pH, and solar radiation, temperature, and rainfall in the growing season. Based on high-resolution soil texture data and 8165 climate data points across the study area, we used the meta-model to assess SOC sequestration potential and the uncertainty associated with the variability of soil characteristics. The meta-model explained 74% of the variation of final SOC content as simulated by APSIM. Applying the meta-model to Australia's cereal-growing regions reveals regional patterns in SOC, with higher SOC stock in cool, wet regions. Overall, the potential SOC stock ranged from 21.14 to 152.71 Mg/ha with a mean of 52.18 Mg/ha. Variation of soil properties induced uncertainty ranging from 12% to 117% with higher uncertainty in warm, wet regions. In general, soils in Australia's cereal-growing regions under continuous wheat production were simulated as a sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide with a mean sequestration potential of 8.17 Mg/ha.
Land-use change impacts on ecosystem services value: Incorporating the scarcity effects of supply and demand dynamics
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2018
CREDOS: A Conservation Reserve Evaluation And Design Optimisation System
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2007
Early systems change necessary for catalyzing long-term sustainability in a post-2030 agenda
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2022
Development, land-use change and rural resettlement capacity: A case study of the Three Gorges Project, China
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 07-2005
Climate change and the economics of biomass energy feedstocks in semi-arid agricultural landscapes: A spatially explicit real options analysis
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2017
DOI: 10.1016/J.JENVMAN.2017.01.049
Abstract: The economics of establishing perennial species as renewable energy feedstocks has been widely investigated as a climate change adapted ersification option for landholders, primarily using net present value (NPV) analysis. NPV does not account for key uncertainties likely to influence relevant landholder decision making. While real options analysis (ROA) is an alternative method that accounts for the uncertainty over future conditions and the large upfront irreversible investment involved in establishing perennials, there have been limited applications of ROA to evaluating land use change decision economics and even fewer applications considering climate change risks. Further, while the influence of spatially varying climate risk on biomass conversion economic has been widely evaluated using NPV methods, effects of spatial variability and climate on land use change have been scarcely assessed with ROA. In this study we applied a simulation-based ROA model to evaluate a landholder's decision to convert land from agriculture to biomass. This spatially explicit model considers price and yield risks under baseline climate and two climate change scenarios over a geographically erse farming region. We found that underlying variability in primary productivity across the study area had a substantial effect on conversion thresholds required to trigger land use change when compared to results from NPV analysis. Areas traditionally thought of as being quite similar in average productive capacity can display large differences in response to the inclusion of production and price risks. The effects of climate change, broadly reduced returns required for land use change to biomass in low and medium rainfall zones and increased them in higher rainfall areas. Additionally, the risks posed by climate change can further exacerbate the tendency for NPV methods to underestimate true conversion thresholds. Our results show that even under severe drying and warming where crop yield variability is more affected than perennial biomass plantings, comparatively little of the study area is economically viable for conversion to biomass under $200/DM t, and it is not until prices exceed $200/DM t that significant areas become profitable for biomass plantings. We conclude that for biomass to become a valuable ersification option the synchronisation of products and services derived from biomass and the development of markets is vital.
Unintended consequences of combating desertification in China
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-02-2023
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-023-36835-Z
Abstract: Since the early 2000s, China has carried out extensive “grain-for-green” and grazing exclusion practices to combat desertification in the desertification-prone region (DPR). However, the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of these practices remain unclear. We quantify and compare the changes in fractional vegetation cover (FVC) with economic and population data in the DPR before and after the implementation of these environmental programmes. Here we show that climatic change and CO 2 fertilization are relatively strong drivers of vegetation rehabilitation from 2001-2020 in the DPR, and the declines in the direct incomes of farmers and herders caused by ecological practices exceed the subsidies provided by governments. To minimize economic hardship, enhance food security, and improve the returns on policy investments in the DPR, China needs to adapt its environmental programmes to address the potential impacts of future climate change and create positive synergies to combat desertification and improve the economy in this region.
Scenarios for Australian agricultural production and land use to 2050
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2016
National-level consumption-based and production-based utilisation of the land-system change planetary boundary: patterns and trends
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2021
Is Inspiring Group Members an Effective Predictor of Social Dominance in Early Adolescence? Direct and Moderated Effects of Behavioral Strategies, Social Skills, and Gender on Resource Control and Pop
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 13-03-2018
Land use mapping error introduces strongly-localised, scale-dependent uncertainty into land use and ecosystem services modelling
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2015
Measurement matters in managing landscape carbon
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2015
Sustainable limits to crop residue harvest for bioenergy: maintaining soil carbon in Australia's agricultural lands
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-03-2015
DOI: 10.1111/GCBB.12145
Navigating sustainability trade-offs in global beef production
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-01-2023
Large-scale, high-resolution agricultural systems modeling using a hybrid approach combining grid computing and parallel processing
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2013
Stronger policy required to substantially reduce deaths from PM2.5 pollution in China
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 19-03-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-020-15319-4
Abstract: Air pollution kills nearly 1 million people per year in China. In response, the Chinese government implemented the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) from 2013 to 2017 which had a significant impact on reducing PM 2.5 concentration. However, the health benefits of the APPCAP are not well understood. Here we examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of annual deaths attributable to PM 2.5 pollution (DAPP) in China and the contribution from the APPCAP using decomposition analysis. Despite a 36.1% increase in DAPP from 2000 to 2017, The APPCAP-induced improvement in air quality achieved substantial health benefits, with the DAPP in 2017 reduced by 64 thousand (6.8%) compared to 2013. However, the policy is unlikely to result in further major reductions in DAPP and more ambitious policies are required to reduce the health impacts of air pollution by 2030 and meet the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goal 3.
Targeting the management of ecosystem services based on social values: Where, what, and how?
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2010
Modelling farming systems performance at catchment and regional scales to support natural resource management
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 12-2009
Science to improve regional environmental investment decisions
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2011
Spatial Analysis of Environmental Change Impacts on Wheat Production in Mid-Lower North, South Australia
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-2005
Mitigating economic risk from climate variability in rain-fed agriculture through enterprise mix diversification
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2012
Effectiveness of regulatory policy in curbing deforestation in a biodiversity hotspot
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 23-11-2018
Exploring the cost effectiveness of land conservation auctions and payment policies*
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 28-08-2008
Conservation planning for people and nature in a Chilean biodiversity hotspot
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-03-2021
DOI: 10.1002/PAN3.10200
Abstract: The Mediterranean‐type climate region of Chile is a globally unique bio ersity hotspot but its protected area system does not adequately represent the biological ersity, nor does it provide equitable access to people. We explored options to expand the protected area system to cost‐effectively improve the conservation of forest ecosystem types while simultaneously enhancing social accessibility to protected areas. Social accessibility is defined as the access of municipalities to cultural ecosystem services provided by protected areas which depends on distance to highly demanded protected areas and income of the municipalities. Using systematic conservation planning methods, we identified priority areas for extending the existing protected area system that: (a) minimise land acquisition cost, (b) maximise social accessibility and (c) optimise for both cost and accessibility. The results show that it is possible to improve social accessibility while simultaneously minimising land cost. Considering cost alone, the protected area system could be expanded to improve bio ersity conservation by 86% at the cost of $47 million USD, which would also increase the accessibility of protected areas by 12%. Accessibility can be increased by a further 18% by jointly considering cost and accessibility without compromising the cost or bio ersity performance. New private conservation policy developed in Chile could help offset the costs of conservation through novel public–private partnerships. Our results can provide specific guidance to policymakers to strategically identify new locations for protected areas which cost‐effectively improve bio ersity conservation, while at the same time reducing inequality in social accessibility. The consideration of social access in reserve design could increase the success of protected areas as a conservation tool by bringing people closer to nature. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.
Rapid SDG progress possible
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-11-2019
Climate change adaptation in smallholder agriculture: adoption, barriers, determinants, and policy implications
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-2022
DOI: 10.1007/S11027-022-10010-Z
Abstract: Adaptation to climate change is imperative for the resilience of smallholder agriculture in many developing countries. While studies have focused on climatic impacts on crops and adaptation decisions, barriers to the uptake of adaptation measures by smallholder farmers remain largely unexplored. We empirically quantified the adoption of adaptation measures, as well as barriers to adoption and their determinants for smallholder agriculture in Far Western Province, Nepal, based on a survey of 327 smallholder farmers. We established relationships between barriers and adoption for three different agroecosystems: the Mountain, Hill, and Terai. We then used multiple regression to identify the determinants of barriers in the broader study area, as well as across agroecosystems. We found that adaptation measures such as crop adjustment, farm management, and fertiliser management were practised across all regions. Techno-informational, economic, and environmental barriers were strongly and inversely correlated with adoption of adaptation measures. Adoption, barriers, and determinants varied across agroecosystems. The findings indicate that agricultural development policies must consider climate change adaptation measures tailored to specific agroecosystems in order to most effectively alleviate barriers and promote smallholder resilience.
Cap and trade policy for managing water competition from potential future carbon plantations
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2016
Impact of agricultural management practices on soil organic carbon: simulation of Australian wheat systems
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-02-2013
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.12145
Abstract: Quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics at a high spatial and temporal resolution in response to different agricultural management practices and environmental conditions can help identify practices that both sequester carbon in the soil and sustain agricultural productivity. Using an agricultural systems model (the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator), we conducted a high spatial resolution and long-term (122 years) simulation study to identify the key management practices and environmental variables influencing SOC dynamics in a continuous wheat cropping system in Australia's 96 million ha cereal-growing regions. Agricultural practices included five nitrogen application rates (0-200 kg N ha(-1) in 50 kg N ha(-1) increments), five residue removal rates (0-100% in 25% increments), and five residue incorporation rates (0-100% in 25% increments). We found that the change in SOC during the 122-year simulation was influenced by the management practices of residue removal (linearly negative) and fertilization (nonlinearly positive) - and the environmental variables of initial SOC content (linearly negative) and temperature (nonlinearly negative). The effects of fertilization were strongest at rates up to 50 kg N ha(-1) , and the effects of temperature were strongest where mean annual temperatures exceeded 19 °C. Reducing residue removal and increasing fertilization increased SOC in most areas except Queensland where high rates of SOC decomposition caused by high temperature and soil moisture negated these benefits. Management practices were particularly effective in increasing SOC in south-west Western Australia - an area with low initial SOC. The results can help target agricultural management practices for increasing SOC in the context of local environmental conditions, enabling farmers to contribute to climate change mitigation and sustaining agricultural production.
Finding pathways to national-scale land-sector sustainability
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-2017
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE21694
Abstract: The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets under Agenda 2030 of the United Nations map a coherent global sustainability ambition at a level of detail general enough to garner consensus amongst nations. However, achieving the global agenda will depend heavily on successful national-scale implementation, which requires the development of effective science-driven targets tailored to specific national contexts and supported by strong national governance. Here we assess the feasibility of achieving multiple SDG targets at the national scale for the Australian land-sector. We scaled targets to three levels of ambition and two timeframes, then quantitatively explored the option space for target achievement under 648 plausible future environmental, socio-economic, technological and policy pathways using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) integrated land systems model. We show that target achievement is very sensitive to global efforts to abate emissions, domestic land-use policy, productivity growth rate, and land-use change adoption behaviour and capacity constraints. Weaker target-setting ambition resulted in higher achievement but poorer sustainability outcomes. Accelerating land-use dynamics after 2030 changed the targets achieved by 2050, warranting a longer-term view and greater flexibility in sustainability implementation. Simultaneous achievement of multiple targets is rare owing to the complexity of sustainability target implementation and the pervasive trade-offs in resource-constrained land systems. Given that hard choices are needed, the land-sector must first address the essential food/fibre production, bio ersity and land degradation components of sustainability via specific policy pathways. It may also contribute to emissions abatement, water and energy targets by capitalizing on co-benefits. However, achieving targets relevant to the land-sector will also require substantial contributions from other sectors such as clean energy, food systems and water resource management. Nations require globally coordinated, national-scale, comprehensive, integrated, multi-sectoral analyses to support national target-setting that prioritizes efficient and effective sustainability interventions across societies, economies and environments.
Mapping community values for natural capital and ecosystem services
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2009
Innovation can accelerate the transition towards a sustainable food system
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 19-05-2020
Climate-friendly and nutrition-sensitive interventions can close the global dietary nutrient gap while reducing GHG emissions
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 23-12-2022
Deviation Analysis and Failure Diagnosis of Diesel Engine
Publisher: Springer US
Risk analysis of possible impacts of climate change on South Australian wheat production
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 15-02-2007
Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2020
Dataset of non-timber forest products use and impacts of recent climate change in the Upper Madi Watershed, Nepal
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2020
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