ORCID Profile
0000-0003-2846-1792
Current Organisations
University of Wollongong
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Organisation
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Archaeological Science | Quaternary Environments | Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Archaeology | Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
Expanding Knowledge in the Earth Sciences | Understanding Australia's Past | Expanding Knowledge in History and Archaeology |
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 18-10-2019
DOI: 10.1101/19009555
Abstract: The recent emergence and established presence of Aedes aegypti in the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal, was responsible for the first autochthonous outbreak of dengue in Europe. The island has not reported any dengue cases since the outbreak in 2012. However, there is a high risk that an introduction of the virus would result in another autochthonous outbreak given the presence of the vector and permissive environmental conditions. Understanding the dynamics of a potential epidemic is critical for targeted local control strategies. Here, we adopt a deterministic model for the transmission of dengue in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The model integrates empirical and mechanistic parameters for virus transmission, under seasonally varying temperatures for Funchal, Madeira Island. We examine the epidemic dynamics as triggered by the arrival date of an infectious in idual the influence of seasonal temperature mean and variation on the epidemic dynamics and performed a sensitivity analysis on the following quantities of interest: the epidemic peak size, time to peak and the final epidemic size. Our results demonstrate the potential for summer to early winter transmission of dengue, with the arrival date significantly affecting the distribution of the timing and peak size of the epidemic. Mid-summer to early autumn arrivals are more likely to produce larger epidemics within a short peak time. Epidemics within this favorable period had an average of 18% of the susceptible population infected at the peak, at an average peak time of 70 days. We also demonstrated that seasonal temperature variation dramatically affects the epidemic dynamics, with warmer starting temperatures producing peaks more quickly after an introduction and larger epidemics. Overall, our quantities of interest were most sensitive to variance in the date of arrival, seasonal temperature, biting rate, transmission rates, and the mosquito population the magnitude of sensitivity differs across quantities. Our model could serve as a useful guide in the development of effective local control and mitigation strategies for dengue fever in Madeira Island. The presence of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in Madeira Island had recently caused the first local outbreak of dengue in Europe. The island is at risk of another local transmission if triggered by the introduction of the dengue virus by an infected person. Using a mathematical model for the transmission of dengue, we examine the dynamics of a potential epidemic triggered by the arrival of an infected person on the island. We also examine the impact of seasonal temperature variation on the epidemic dynamics. Our results show the potential for summer to early winter transmission of dengue on the island, and that the arrival date of an infectious person affects the distribution of the timing and peak size of the epidemic. Arrival dates during mid-summer to early autumn were more likely to produce larger epidemic peak size within a short time. We also show that seasonal temperature variation dramatically affects the epidemic dynamics. With warmer starting temperatures, epidemics peak more rapidly and produce a larger epidemic size. Our model could be useful to estimate the risk of an epidemic outbreak and as a guide for local control and mitigation strategies for dengue on the island.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2015
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2016
DOI: 10.1016/J.JHEVOL.2016.03.010
Abstract: Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) measurements were made on in idual, sand-sized grains of quartz from Middle Palaeolithic deposits at three sites (Pech de l'Azé I, II and IV) located close to one another in the Dordogne region of southwest France. We were able to calculate OSL ages for 69 s les collected from these three sites. These ages reveal periods of occupation between about 180 and 50 thousand years ago. Our single-grain OSL chronologies largely support previous age estimates obtained by thermoluminescence dating of burnt flints at Pech IV, electron spin resonance dating of tooth enamel at Pech I, II and IV and radiocarbon dating of bone at Pech I and IV, but provide a more complete picture due to the ubiquitous presence of sand-sized quartz grains used in OSL dating. These complete chronologies for the three sites have allowed us to compare the single-grain ages for similar lithic assemblages among the three sites, to test the correlations among them previously proposed by Bordes in the 1970s, and to construct our own correlative chronological framework for the three sites. This shows that similar lithic assemblages occur at around the same time, and that where a lithic assemblage is unique to one or found at two of the Pech sites, there are no deposits of chronologically equivalent age at the other Pech site(s). We interpret this to mean that, at least for these Pech de l'Azé sites, the Mousterian variants show temporal ordering. Whether or not this conclusion applies to the wider region and beyond, the hypothesis that Mousterian industrial variation is temporally ordered cannot be refuted at this time.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-10-2020
Abstract: Abstract. This paper presents the current state-of-knowledge of the New Zealand (Aotearoa) last interglacial (MIS 5 sensu lato) sea-level record compiled within the framework of the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines (WALIS) database. Seventy-seven total relative sea-level (RSL) indicators (direct, marine-, and terrestrial-limiting points), commonly in association with marine terraces, were identified from over 120 studies reviewed. Extensive coastal deformation around New Zealand has resulted in a significant range of elevation measurements on both the North Island (276.8 to −94.2 msl) and South Island (173.1 to −70.0 msl) and prompted the use of RSL indicators to estimate rates of vertical land movement however, indicators lack adequate description and age constraint. Identified RSL indicators are correlated with MIS 5, MIS 5e, MIS 5c, and MIS 5a and indicate the potential for the New Zealand sea-level record to inform sea-level fluctuation and climatic change within MIS 5 (sensu lato). The Northland (North Island) and Otago (South Island) regions, historically considered stable, have the potential to provide a regional sea-level curve in a remote location of the South Pacific across broad degrees of latitude. Future work requires modern analogue information, heights above a defined sea-level datum, better stratigraphic descriptions, and use of improved geochronological methods. The database presented in this study is available open-access at this link: 0.5281/zenodo.4056376 (Ryan et al., 2020a).
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2022
Publisher: Zenodo
Date: 2020
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-08-2019
Publisher: Zenodo
Date: 2020
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-06-2017
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 05-10-2020
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-07-2021
DOI: 10.1002/JQS.3348
Abstract: Abandoned shorelines are an important archive used to constrain past fluctuations in the hydrological balance of lakes around the globe. Within Australia, the shorelines preserved at Lake George, NSW, form one of the few shoreline archives in the south‐east of the continent that record palaeoenvironmental conditions throughout the late Quaternary. Here, we examined and tested the lake‐level record for Lake George constructed in the 1970s by dating a well‐preserved shoreline sequence at Luckdale, on the lake's eastern shore, using single‐grain optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. Ten stratigraphic units were identified, and these suggest a late Quaternary highstand for Lake George in MIS 3, with fluctuations superimposed upon an overall drying trend throughout MIS 2 and into the present. At Luckdale, the highest four shoreline‐associated units were deposited ~13 to 19 m above lake base and date to between 39 ± 2 and 29 ± 1 ka ago. Our study pushes back the timing of maximum lake depth at Lake George to at least MIS 3, rather than MIS 2. The overall drying trend is supported by similar reductions in both Riverine Plain fluvial activity and other associated lake‐level records from within the Murray basin.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-2016
DOI: 10.1002/JQS.2877
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-09-2017
DOI: 10.1111/DDI.12617
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2022
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 12-03-2020
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 26-10-2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-08-2018
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-08-2014
DOI: 10.1002/ESP.3622
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 05-02-2018
Abstract: Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species—those never before encountered as aliens—therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Using a global database of the first regional records of alien species covering the years 1500–2005 we detected a surprisingly high proportion of species in recent records that have never been recorded as alien before. The high proportion of these emerging alien species mainly resulted from the increased accessibility of new source species pools in the native range. Risk assessment approaches that rely less on invasion history will need to be prioritized.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-05-2023
DOI: 10.1007/S00334-023-00922-4
Abstract: Although phytolith research has come of age in archaeology and palaeoecology internationally, it has remained relatively marginalised from mainstream practice in Australasia. The region’s initial isolation from international scientific communities and uniqueness of its vegetation communities, has led to an exclusive set of challenges and interruptions in phytolith research. Examining a history of Australasian phytolith research presents the opportunity to recognise developments that have made phytoliths a powerful tool in reconstructing past environments and human uses of plants. Phytolith research arrived early in Australia (1903), after a convoluted journey from Germany (1835–1895) and Europe (1895–1943), but phytoliths were initially misidentified as sponge spicules (1931–1959). Formal understanding of phytoliths and their applications began in Australasia during the late 1950s, continuing throughout the 1960s and 1970s (1959–1980). After a brief hiatus, the modern period of phytolith analyses in Australasian archaeological and palaeoenvironmental research began in the 1980s (1984–1992), focusing on investigating the deep past. Advancements continued into the 1990s and early 2000s. Wallis and Hart declared in 2003 that Australian phytolith research had finally come of age, but more a fitting description would be that it had peaked. Since then phytolith research in Australasia slowed down considerably (2005-present). Local phytolith reference collections for Australasian flora, critical for identifying ancient phytoliths, are essentially no longer produced.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2020
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 02-12-2010
Abstract: Explaining the Late Pleistocene demise of many of the world's larger terrestrial vertebrates is arguably the most enduring and debated topic in Quaternary science. Australia lost % of its larger species by around 40 thousand years (ka) ago, but the relative importance of human impacts and increased aridity remains unclear. Resolving the debate has been h ered by a lack of sites spanning the last glacial cycle. Here we report on an exceptional faunal succession from Tight Entrance Cave, southwestern Australia, which shows persistence of a erse mammal community for at least 100 ka leading up to the earliest regional evidence of humans at 49 ka. Within 10 millennia, all larger mammals except the gray kangaroo and thylacine are lost from the regional record. Stable-isotope, charcoal, and small-mammal records reveal evidence of environmental change from 70 ka, but the extinctions occurred well in advance of the most extreme climatic phase. We conclude that the arrival of humans was probably decisive in the southwestern Australian extinctions, but that changes in climate and fire activity may have played facilitating roles. One-factor explanations for the Pleistocene extinctions in Australia are likely oversimplistic.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2011
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 29-08-2018
Abstract: Islands are hotspots of alien species invasions, and their distinct bio ersity is particularly vulnerable to invading species. While isolation has shaped natural colonization of islands for millions of years, globalization in trade and transport has led to a breakdown of biogeographical barriers and subsequent colonization of islands by alien species. Using a large dataset of 257 subtropical and tropical islands, we show that alien richness increases with increasing isolation of islands. This pattern is consistent for plants, ants, mammals, and reptiles, and it cannot simply be explained by island economics and trade alone. Geographical isolation does not protect islands from alien species, and island species richness may reach a new dynamic equilibrium at some point, likely at the expense of many endemic species.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 14-07-2021
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-13-3399-2021
Abstract: Abstract. This paper presents the current state of knowledge of the Aotearoa New Zealand last interglacial (marine isotope stage 5, MIS 5, sensu lato) sea-level record compiled within the framework of the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines (WALIS) database. A total of 77 relative sea-level (RSL) indicators (direct, marine-limiting, and terrestrial-limiting points), commonly in association with marine terraces, were identified from over 120 studies reviewed. Extensive coastal deformation around New Zealand has prompted research focused on active tectonics, the scale of which overprints the sea-level record in most regions. The ranges of last interglacial palaeo-shoreline elevations are significant on both the North Island (276.8 ± 10.0 to −94.2 ± 10.6 ma.m.s.l., above mean sea level) and South Island (165.8 ± 2.0 to −70.0 ± 10.3 ma.m.s.l.) and have been used to estimate rates of vertical land movement however, in many instances there is a lack of adequate description and age constraint for high-quality RSL indicators. Identified RSL indicators are correlated with MIS 5, MIS 5e, MIS 5c, and MIS 5a and indicate the potential for the New Zealand sea-level record to inform sea-level fluctuation and climatic change within MIS 5. The Northland Region of the North Island and southeastern South Island, historically considered stable, have the potential to provide a regional sea-level curve, minimally impacted by glacio- and hydro-isostatic adjustment (GIA) and reflecting near-eustatic fluctuations in a remote location of the South Pacific, across broad degrees of latitude however, additional records from these regions are needed. Future work requires modern analogue information, heights above a defined sea-level datum, better stratigraphic descriptions, and use of improved geochronological methods. The database presented in this study is available open access at this link: 0.5281/zenodo.4590188 (Ryan et al., 2020a).
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 09-07-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2015
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2012
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2017
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Start Date: 2021
End Date: 2024
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 06-2021
End Date: 05-2024
Amount: $462,700.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded Activity