ORCID Profile
0000-0003-3626-4254
Current Organisation
University of Cambridge
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Publisher: eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
Date: 08-04-2019
DOI: 10.7554/ELIFE.42869
Abstract: Serostudies are needed to answer generalizable questions on disease risk. However, recruitment is usually biased by age or location. We present a nationally-representative study for dengue from 70 communities in Bangladesh. We collected data on risk factors, trapped mosquitoes and tested serum for IgG. Out of 5866 in iduals, 24% had evidence of historic infection, ranging from 3% in the north to % in Dhaka. Being male (aOR:1.8, [95%CI:1.5–2.0]) and recent travel (aOR:1.3, [1.1–1.8]) were linked to seropositivity. We estimate that 40 million [34.3–47.2] people have been infected nationally, with 2.4 million ([1.3–4.5]) annual infections. Had we visited only 20 communities, seropositivity estimates would have ranged from 13% to 37%, highlighting the lack of representativeness generated by small numbers of communities. Our findings have implications for both the design of serosurveys and tackling dengue in Bangladesh.
Publisher: Massachusetts Medical Society
Date: 09-05-2019
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 17-01-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2013
Publisher: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Date: 2016
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2017
Publisher: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Date: 09-2017
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 02-03-2020
Abstract: Contact patterns play a key role in disease transmission, and variation in contacts during the course of illness can influence transmission, particularly when accompanied by changes in host infectiousness. We used surveys among 1642 contacts of 94 Nipah virus case patients in Bangladesh to determine how contact patterns (physical and with bodily fluids) changed as disease progressed in severity. The number of contacts increased with severity and, for case patients who died, peaked on the day of death. Given transmission has only been observed among fatal cases of Nipah virus infection, our findings suggest that changes in contact patterns during illness contribute to risk of infection.
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 06-03-2014
DOI: 10.1093/AJE/KWU002
Publisher: Hindawi Limited
Date: 23-09-2013
DOI: 10.1111/INA.12065
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 05-2020
Abstract: It is of uttermost importance that the global health community develops the surveillance capability to effectively monitor emerging zoonotic pathogens that constitute a major and evolving threat for human health. In this study, we propose a comprehensive framework to measure changes in (1) spillover risk, (2) interhuman transmission, and (3) morbidity/mortality associated with infections based on 6 epidemiological key indicators derived from routine surveillance. We demonstrate the indicators’ value for the retrospective or real-time assessment of changes in transmission and epidemiological characteristics using data collected through a long-standing, systematic, hospital-based surveillance system for Nipah virus in Bangladesh. We show that although interhuman transmission and morbidity/mortality indicators were stable, the number and geographic extent of spillovers varied significantly over time. This combination of systematic surveillance and active tracking of transmission and epidemiological indicators should be applied to other high-risk emerging pathogens to prevent public health emergencies.
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 10-11-2017
Abstract: The cholera pathogen, Vibrio cholerae , is considered to be ubiquitous in water systems, making the design of eradication measures apparently fruitless. Nevertheless, local and global Vibrio populations remain distinct. Now, Weill et al. and Domman et al. show that a surprising ersity between continents has been established. Latin America and Africa bear different variants of cholera toxin with different transmission dynamics and ecological niches. The data are not consistent with the establishment of long-term reservoirs of pandemic cholera or with a relationship to climate events. Science , this issue p. 785 , p. 789
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 07-11-2016
Abstract: Although the determinants of infectious disease transmission have been extensively investigated in small social structures such as households or schools, the impact of the wider environment (e.g., neighborhood) on transmission has received less attention. Here we use an outbreak of chikungunya as a case study where detailed epidemiological data were collected and combine it with statistical approaches to characterize the multiple factors that influence the risk of infectious disease transmission and may depend on characteristics of the in idual (e.g., age, sex), of his or her close relatives (e.g., household members), or of the wider neighborhood. Our findings highlight the role that integrating statistical approaches with in-depth information on the at-risk population can have on understanding pathogen spread.
Publisher: Hindawi Limited
Date: 21-03-2013
DOI: 10.1111/INA.12038
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2020
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 20-12-2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.12.18.423387
Abstract: Retracing microbial emergence and spread is essential to understanding the evolution and dynamics of pathogens. The bacterial foodborne pathogen Listeria monocytogenes clonal complex 1 ( Lm -CC1) is the most prevalent clonal group associated with listeriosis, and is strongly associated with cattle and dairy products. Here we analysed 2,021 Lm -CC1 isolates collected from 40 countries, since the first Lm isolation to the present day, to define its evolutionary history and population dynamics. Our results suggest that Lm -CC1 spread worldwide from North America following the Industrial Revolution through two waves of expansion, coinciding with the transatlantic livestock trade in the second half of the 19 th century and the rapid growth of cattle farming in the 20 th century. Lm -CC1 then firmly established at a local level, with limited inter-country spread. This study provides an unprecedented insight into Lm -CC1 phylogeography and dynamics and can contribute to effective disease surveillance to reduce the burden of listeriosis.
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 03-12-2021
Abstract: Analyses of ~2000 genomes of Listeria monocytogenes main clinical clone reveal its global spread and dynamics.
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 16-03-2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.13.20035352
Abstract: Pandemic Vibrio cholerae from cholera-endemic countries around the Bay of Bengal regularly seed epidemics globally. Without reducing cholera in these countries, including Bangladesh, global cholera control may never be achieved. Little is known about the geographic distribution and magnitude of V. cholerae O1 transmission nationally. Here we use recent advances in cholera seroepidemiology to describe infection risk across Bangladesh overcoming many of the limitations of current clinic-based surveillance. We tested serum from a nationally-representative serosurvey in Bangladesh of 2,778 participants with eight V. cholerae -specific assays. Using these data with a previously validated machine learning model we estimate the annual seroincidence rate and use Bayesian geostatistical models to create high-resolution national maps of infection risk. We estimate a national seroincidence rate of 19.1% (95% CI 12.2-26.9%). Our high-resolution maps reveal large heterogeneity of infection risk, with community-level annual infection risk within the s led population ranging from 2.4-69.0%. Across the country, we estimate that 31.0 million (95% CI 19.8-43.7 million) occurred in the year before the survey with most of these infections occurring in urban areas, including Dhaka, the capital. Serosurveillance provides an avenue for identifying areas with high V. cholerae O1 transmission and exploring key risk factors for infection across geographic scales. This may serve as an important tool for countries to plan and monitor progress towards 2030 cholera elimination goals.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2018
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 11-04-2019
DOI: 10.1093/IJE/DYZ057
Abstract: Understanding the true burden of emergent diseases is critical for assessing public-health impact. However, surveillance often relies on hospital systems that only capture a minority of cases. We use the ex le of Nipah-virus infection in Bangladesh, which has a high case-fatality ratio and frequent person-to-person transmission, to demonstrate how healthcare-seeking data can estimate true burden. We fit logistic-regression models to data from a population-based, healthcare-seeking study of encephalitis cases to characterize the impact of distance and mortality on attending one of three surveillance hospital sites. The resulting estimates of detection probabilities, as a function of distance and outcome, are applied to all observed Nipah outbreaks between 2007 and 2014 to estimate the true burden. The probability of attending a surveillance hospital fell from 82% for people with fatal encephalitis living 10 km away from a surveillance hospital to 54% at 50 km away. The odds of attending a surveillance hospital are 3.2 (95% confidence interval: 1.6, 6.6) times greater for patients who eventually died (i.e. who were more severely ill) compared with those who survived. Using these probabilities, we estimated that 119 Nipah outbreaks (95% confidence interval: 103, 140)—an average of 15 outbreaks per Nipah season—occurred during 2007–14 62 (52%) were detected. Our findings suggest hospital-based surveillance missed nearly half of all Nipah outbreaks. This analytical method allowed us to estimate the underlying burden of disease, which is important for emerging diseases where healthcare access may be limited.
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 17-01-2017
Publisher: eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
Date: 20-02-2019
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Henrik Salje.