ORCID Profile
0000-0001-9633-2752
Current Organisations
Helmholtz Zentrum München
,
Ludwig-Maximilians Universität
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Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 24-08-2023
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-023-40599-X
Abstract: Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-03-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-022-09049-4
Abstract: Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option that provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, and yet are to be systematically explored for their suitability in assessing temperature-related health risks at a global scale. Here we provide the first comprehensive analysis over multiple regions to assess the suitability of the most recent generation of reanalysis datasets for health impact assessments and evaluate their comparative performance against traditional station-based data. Our findings show that reanalysis temperature from the last ERA5 products generally compare well to station observations, with similar non-optimal temperature-related risk estimates. However, the analysis offers some indication of lower performance in tropical regions, with a likely underestimation of heat-related excess mortality. Reanalysis data represent a valid alternative source of exposure variables in epidemiological analyses of temperature-related risk.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-04-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, bio ersity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 10-02-2020
DOI: 10.1136/BMJ.M108
Abstract: To assess short term mortality risks and excess mortality associated with exposure to ozone in several cities worldwide. Two stage time series analysis. 406 cities in 20 countries, with overlapping periods between 1985 and 2015, collected from the database of Multi-City Multi-Country Collaborative Research Network. Deaths for all causes or for external causes only registered in each city within the study period . Daily total mortality (all or non-external causes only). A total of 45 165 171 deaths were analysed in the 406 cities. On average, a 10 µg/m 3 increase in ozone during the current and previous day was associated with an overall relative risk of mortality of 1.0018 (95% confidence interval 1.0012 to 1.0024). Some heterogeneity was found across countries, with estimates ranging from greater than 1.0020 in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Estonia, and Canada to less than 1.0008 in Mexico and Spain. Short term excess mortality in association with exposure to ozone higher than maximum background levels (70 µg/m 3 ) was 0.26% (95% confidence interval 0.24% to 0.28%), corresponding to 8203 annual excess deaths (95% confidence interval 3525 to 12 840) across the 406 cities studied. The excess remained at 0.20% (0.18% to 0.22%) when restricting to days above the WHO guideline (100 µg/m 3 ), corresponding to 6262 annual excess deaths (1413 to 11 065). Above more lenient thresholds for air quality standards in Europe, America, and China, excess mortality was 0.14%, 0.09%, and 0.05%, respectively. Results suggest that ozone related mortality could be potentially reduced under stricter air quality standards. These findings have relevance for the implementation of efficient clean air interventions and mitigation strategies designed within national and international climate policies.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2021
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 24-03-2021
DOI: 10.1136/BMJ.N534
Abstract: To evaluate the short term associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide, using a uniform analytical protocol. Two stage, time series approach, with overdispersed generalised linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. 398 cities in 22 low to high income countries/regions. Daily deaths from total (62.8 million), cardiovascular (19.7 million), and respiratory (5.5 million) causes between 1973 and 2018. On average, a 10 μg/m 3 increase in NO 2 concentration on lag 1 day (previous day) was associated with 0.46% (95% confidence interval 0.36% to 0.57%), 0.37% (0.22% to 0.51%), and 0.47% (0.21% to 0.72%) increases in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. These associations remained robust after adjusting for co-pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm or ≤2.5 μm (PM 10 and PM 2.5 , respectively), ozone, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide). The pooled concentration-response curves for all three causes were almost linear without discernible thresholds. The proportion of deaths attributable to NO 2 concentration above the counterfactual zero level was 1.23% (95% confidence interval 0.96% to 1.51%) across the 398 cities. This multilocation study provides key evidence on the independent and linear associations between short term exposure to NO 2 and increased risk of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting that health benefits would be achieved by tightening the guidelines and regulatory limits of NO 2 .
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2022
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2021
DOI: 10.51893/2021.1.RL1
Abstract: There is significant uncertainty about the potential role of temperature control in the intensive care unit (ICU) in general, but more specifically in septic shock patients.1,2 Common techniques for temperature control have been limited by minimal effect (eg, paracetamol, fans or air blankets), undesirable side effects (eg, non-steroidal anti-inflammatories), or being burdensome (eg, heavy sedation, paralysis with surface cooling intravascular cooling devices3). In contrast, the potential of newer-generation surface-cooling devices to achieve temperature control more simply has created the possibility of studying temperature modulation in the septic ICU population.
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 14-11-2022
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-2190946/V1
Abstract: Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2022
Publisher: Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Date: 24-09-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 13-09-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 31-05-2021
Location: Germany
No related grants have been discovered for Veronika Huber.