ORCID Profile
0000-0001-9437-8896
Current Organisations
Karolinska Institutet
,
Healthcare Provision, Stockholm County
,
CSIRO
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Fisheries Sciences not elsewhere classified | Ecological Impacts of Climate Change | Ecological Applications |
Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change | Wild Caught Fin Fish (excl. Tuna) | Global Effects of Climate Change and Variability (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. Social Impacts)
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 05-05-2015
Abstract: Abstract. Coral reefs are erse ecosystems that are threatened by rising CO2 levels through increases in sea surface temperature and ocean acidification. Here we present a new unified model that links changes in temperature and carbonate chemistry to coral health. Changes in coral health and population are explicitly modelled by linking rates of growth, recovery and calcification to rates of bleaching and temperature-stress-induced mortality. The model is underpinned by four key principles: the Arrhenius equation, thermal specialisation, correlated up- and down-regulation of traits that are consistent with resource allocation trade-offs, and adaption to local environments. These general relationships allow this model to be constructed from a range of experimental and observational data. The performance of the model is assessed against independent data to demonstrate how it can capture the observed response of corals to stress. We also provide new insights into the factors that determine calcification rates and provide a framework based on well-known biological principles to help understand the observed global distribution of calcification rates. Our results suggest that, despite the implicit complexity of the coral reef environment, a simple model based on temperature, carbonate chemistry and different species can give insights into how corals respond to changes in temperature and ocean acidification.
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 26-05-2017
Abstract: Policy- and decision-makers require assessments of status and trends for marine species, habitats, and ecosystems to understand if human activities in the marine environment are sustainable, particularly in the face of global change. Central to many assessments are statistical and dynamical models of populations, communities, ecosystems, and their socioeconomic systems and management frameworks. The establishment of a national system that could facilitate the development of such model-based assessments has been identified as a priority for addressing management challenges for Australia’s marine environment. Given that most assessments require cross-scale information, in idual models cannot capture all of the spatial, temporal, biological, and socioeconomic scales that are typically needed. Coupling or integrating models across scales and domains can expand the scope for developing comprehensive and internally consistent, system-level assessments, including higher-level feedbacks in social–ecological systems. In this article, we summarize: (i) integrated modelling for marine systems currently being undertaken in Australia, (ii) methods used for integration and comparison of models, and (iii) improvements to facilitate further integration, particularly with respect to standards and specifications. We consider future needs for integrated modelling of marine social–ecological systems in Australia and provide a set of recommendations for priority focus areas in the development of a national approach to integrated modelling. These recommendations draw on—and have broader relevance for—international efforts around integrated modelling to inform decision-making for marine systems.
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 28-05-2011
Abstract: Episodic events like hurricanes, storms and frontal- and eddy-driven upwelling can alter the partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 ) at the sea surface by entraining subsurface waters into the surface mixed layer (ML) of the ocean. Since pCO 2 is a function of total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), temperature ( T ), salinity and alkalinity, it responds to the combined impacts of physical, chemical and biological changes. Here, we present an analytical framework for assessing the relative magnitude and sign in the short-term perturbation of surface pCO 2 arising from vertical mixing events. Using global, monthly, climatological datasets, we assess the in idual, as well as integrated, contribution of various properties to surface pCO 2 in response to episodic mixing. The response depends on the relative vertical gradients of properties beneath the ML. Many areas of the ocean exhibit very little sensitivity to mixing owing to the compensatory effects of DIC and T on pCO 2 , whereas others, such as the eastern upwelling margins, have the potential to generate large positive/negative anomalies in surface pCO 2 . The response varies seasonally and spatially and becomes more intense in subtropical and subpolar regions during summer. Regions showing a greater pCO 2 response to vertical mixing are likely to exhibit higher spatial variability in surface pCO 2 on time scales of days.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 12-03-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the global carbon budget – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from 0.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-06-2001
DOI: 10.1111/JVH.12113
Abstract: Anaemia frequently complicates peginterferon/ribavirin therapy for chronic hepatitis C infection. Better prediction of anaemia, ribavirin dose reduction or erythropoietin (EPO) need, may enhance patient management. Inosine triphosphatase (ITPA) genetic variants are associated with ribavirin-induced anaemia and dose reduction however, their impact in real-life clinic patient cohorts remains to be defined. We studied 193 clinic patients with chronic hepatitis C infection of mixed viral genotype (genotype 1/4 n = 123, genotype 2/3, n = 70) treated with peginterferon/ribavirin. Patients were genotyped for ITPA polymorphisms rs1127354 and rs7270101 using Taqman primers. Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was present. Estimated ITPA deficiency was graded on severity (0-3, no deficiency/mild/moderate/severe, n = 126/40/24/3, respectively). Multivariable models tested the association with anaemia at 4 weeks of treatment [including decline in haemoglobin (g/dL) haemoglobin 3 g/dL] ribavirin dose reduction and EPO use and explored sustained viral response (SVR) to peginterferon/ribavirin. More severe ITPA deficiency was associated with less reduction in haemoglobin level (P <0.001 R(2) = 0.34), less ribavirin dose reduction (OR 0.42 (95% CI = 0.23-0.77) P = 0.005) and less EPO use [OR 0.53 (0.30-0.94) P = 0.029]. ITPA deficiency was associated with SVR [OR: 1.70 (1.02-2.83) P = 0.041] independently of clinical covariates (adjusted R(2) = 0.31). In this clinical cohort, ITPA deficiency helped predict the risk of on-treatment anaemia, ribavirin dose reduction, need for EPO support and was associated with SVR. For patients on HCV regimens including peginterferon/ribavirin, testing for ITPA deficiency may have clinical utility.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-12-2015
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 23-02-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NCOMMS10732
Abstract: The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is founded on reef-building corals. Corals build their exoskeleton with aragonite, but ocean acidification is lowering the aragonite saturation state of seawater (Ω a ). The downscaling of ocean acidification projections from global to GBR scales requires the set of regional drivers controlling Ω a to be resolved. Here we use a regional coupled circulation–biogeochemical model and observations to estimate the Ω a experienced by the 3,581 reefs of the GBR, and to apportion the contributions of the hydrological cycle, regional hydrodynamics and metabolism on Ω a variability. We find more detail, and a greater range (1.43), than previously compiled coarse maps of Ω a of the region (0.4), or in observations (1.0). Most of the variability in Ω a is due to processes upstream of the reef in question. As a result, future decline in Ω a is likely to be steeper on the GBR than currently projected by the IPCC assessment report.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-07-2020
Abstract: Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change is projected to lead to ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes to primary production, all of which are expected to affect marine ecosystems. Here we assess projections of these drivers of environmental change over the twenty-first century from Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that were forced under the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Projections are compared to those from the previous generation (CMIP5) forced under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). A total of 10 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 models are used in the two multi-model ensembles. Under the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the multi-model global mean change (2080–2099 mean values relative to 1870–1899) ± the inter-model SD in sea surface temperature, surface pH, subsurface (100–600 m) oxygen concentration, euphotic (0–100 m) nitrate concentration, and depth-integrated primary production is +3.47±0.78 ∘C, -0.44±0.005, -13.27±5.28, -1.06±0.45 mmol m−3 and -2.99±9.11 %, respectively. Under the low-emission, high-mitigation scenario SSP1-2.6, the corresponding global changes are +1.42±0.32 ∘C, -0.16±0.002, -6.36±2.92, -0.52±0.23 mmol m−3, and -0.56±4.12 %. Projected exposure of the marine ecosystem to these drivers of ocean change depends largely on the extent of future emissions, consistent with previous studies. The ESMs in CMIP6 generally project greater warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than those from CMIP5 under comparable radiative forcing. The increased projected ocean warming results from a general increase in the climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to those of CMIP5. This enhanced warming increases upper-ocean stratification in CMIP6 projections, which contributes to greater reductions in upper-ocean nitrate and subsurface oxygen ventilation. The greater surface acidification in CMIP6 is primarily a consequence of the SSPs having higher associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations than their RCP analogues for the same radiative forcing. We find no consistent reduction in inter-model uncertainties, and even an increase in net primary production inter-model uncertainties in CMIP6, as compared to CMIP5.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2016GB005476
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 09-01-2023
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-2230847/V1
Abstract: Anthropogenic warming of the oceans and associated deoxygenation are altering marine ecosystems. Current knowledge suggests that these changes might be reversible in the centennial timescale in the ocean surface and irreversible at deeper depth if global warming were to decline. However, knowledge on the persistence of their combined effects on marine ecosystems remains limited. Here we explore to what extent global warming will drive alterations on marine habitats by following the evolution of a metabolic index that captures the ecophysiological response of marine organisms to both changes in temperature and oxygen, through an idealised r -up r -down atmospheric CO 2 concentration experiment. Using a multi-model approach, we find that changes in ocean temperature and oxygen drives a centuries-long irreversible loss of ~4% in the habitable volume of the upper 1000 m of the world ocean. These results suggest the combined effect of warming and deoxygenation will diminish the capability of the ocean to hold life far after recovering from a temperature overshoot.
Publisher: CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology
Date: 2015
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2010
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-2009
DOI: 10.1029/2009GL038227
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-07-2017
Abstract: Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) that incorporate carbon–climate feedbacks represent the present state of the art in climate modelling. Here, we describe the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS)-ESM1, which comprises atmosphere (UM7.3), land (CABLE), ocean (MOM4p1), and sea-ice (CICE4.1) components with OASIS-MCT coupling, to which ocean and land carbon modules have been added. The land carbon model (as part of CABLE) can optionally include both nitrogen and phosphorous limitation on the land carbon uptake. The ocean carbon model (WOMBAT, added to MOM) simulates the evolution of phosphate, oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity and iron with one class of phytoplankton and zooplankton. We perform multi-centennial pre-industrial simulations with a fixed atmospheric CO2 concentration and different land carbon model configurations (prescribed or prognostic leaf area index). We evaluate the equilibration of the carbon cycle and present the spatial and temporal variability in key carbon exchanges. Simulating leaf area index results in a slight warming of the atmosphere relative to the prescribed leaf area index case. Seasonal and interannual variations in land carbon exchange are sensitive to whether leaf area index is simulated, with interannual variations driven by variability in precipitation and temperature. We find that the response of the ocean carbon cycle shows reasonable agreement with observations. While our model overestimates surface phosphate values, the global primary productivity agrees well with observations. Our analysis highlights some deficiencies inherent in the carbon models and where the carbon simulation is negatively impacted by known biases in the underlying physical model and consequent limits on the applicability of this model version. We conclude the study with a brief discussion of key developments required to further improve the realism of our model simulation.
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 08-2022
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-1880023/V1
Abstract: Zooplankton grazing regulates marine carbon cycling by constraining phytoplankton populations and the subsequent transfer of carbon to depth and higher trophic levels. Yet, without robust in-situ data to constrain them, the grazing formulation in state-of-the-art climate models varies largely. We present a new metric to compare how fast zooplankton are assumed to graze in 10 state-of-the-art (CMIP6) biogeochemical models and find they differ by nearly 2 orders of magnitude, implying an ocean populated exclusively with everything from slow-grazing krill to rapidly-grazing ciliates. We use a global, coupled ocean-biogeochemistry model to test the sensitivity of marine carbon cycling to this uncertainty and find the Net Primary Production (NPP) and export efficiency collapse across the range of plausible values. Even when tuned to identical NPP by increasing phytoplankton growth rates, export and secondary production remain extremely sensitive to grazing, likely biasing predictions of future climate states and food security.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2014
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 28-03-2023
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 05-2013
Abstract: The overturning circulation of the Southern Ocean has been investigated using eddying coupled ocean–sea ice models. The circulation is diagnosed in both density–latitude coordinates and in depth–density coordinates. Depth–density coordinates follow streamlines where the Antarctic Circumpolar Current is equivalent barotropic, capture the descent of Antarctic Bottom Water, follow density outcrops at the surface, and can be interpreted energetically. In density–latitude coordinates, wind-driven northward transport of light water and southward transport of dense water are compensated by standing meanders and to a lesser degree by transient eddies, consistent with previous results. In depth–density coordinates, however, wind-driven upwelling of dense water and downwelling of light water are compensated more strongly by transient eddy fluxes than fluxes because of standing meanders. Model realizations are discussed where the wind pattern of the southern annular mode is lified. In density–latitude coordinates, meridional fluxes because of transient eddies can increase to counter changes in Ekman transport and decrease in response to changes in the standing meanders. In depth–density coordinates, vertical fluxes because of transient eddies directly counter changes in Ekman pumping.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-11-2008
Abstract: Climate change over the last several decades is suggested to cause a decrease in the magnitude of the uptake of CO2 by the Southern Ocean (Le Quere et al.). In this study, the atmospheric fields from NCEP R1 for the years 1948–2003 are used to drive an ocean biogeochemical model to probe how changes in the heat and freshwater fluxes and in the winds affect the Southern Ocean’s uptake of carbon. Over this period, the model simulations herein show that the increases in heat and freshwater fluxes drive a net increase in Southern Ocean uptake (south of 40°S) while the increases in wind stresses drive a net decrease in uptake. The total Southern Ocean response is nearly identical with the simulation without climate change because the heat and freshwater flux response is approximately both equal and opposite to the wind stress response. It is also shown that any change in the Southern Ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake is always opposed by a much larger change in the natural carbon air–sea exchange. For the 1948–2003 period, the changes in the natural carbon cycle dominate the Southern Ocean carbon uptake response to climate change. However, it is shown with a simple box model that when atmospheric CO2 levels exceed the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) of the upwelled Circumpolar Deep Water (≈450 μatm) the Southern Ocean uptake response will be dominated by the changes in anthropogenic carbon uptake. Therefore, the suggestion that the Southern Ocean carbon uptake is a positive feedback to global warming is only a transient response that will change to a negative feedback in the near future if the present climate trend continues. Associated with the increased outgassing of carbon from the natural carbon cycle was a reduction in the aragonite saturation state of the high-latitude Southern Ocean (south of 60°S). In the simulation with just wind stress changes, the reduction in the high-latitude Southern Ocean aragonite saturation state (≈0.2) was comparable to the magnitude of the decline in the aragonite saturation state over the last 4 decades because of rising atmospheric CO2 levels (≈0.2). The simulation showed that climate change could significantly impact aragonite saturation state in the Southern Ocean.
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 24-08-2020
DOI: 10.1071/ES19035
Abstract: The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) has been extended to include land and ocean carbon cycle components to form an Earth System Model (ESM). The current version, ACCESS-ESM1.5, has been mainly developed to enable Australia to participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with an ESM version. Here we describe the model components and changes to the previous version, ACCESS-ESM1. We use the 500-year pre-industrial control run to highlight the stability of the physical climate and the carbon cycle. The long spin-up, negligible drift in temperature and small pre-industrial net carbon fluxes (0.02 and 0.08 PgC year−1 for land and ocean respectively) highlight the suitability of ACCESS-ESM1.5 to explore modes of variability in the climate system and coupling to the carbon cycle. The physical climate and carbon cycle for the present day have been evaluated using the CMIP6 historical simulation by comparing against observations and ACCESS-ESM1. Although there is generally little change in the climate simulation from the earlier model, many aspects of the carbon simulation are improved. An assessment of the climate response to CO2 forcing indicates that ACCESS-ESM1.5 has an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.87°C.
Publisher: Australian Ocean Data Network
Date: 2022
DOI: 10.26198/DMZB-QE77
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-01-2016
Abstract: Abstract. Here, the authors describe the construction of a forcing data set for land surface models (including both physical and biogeochemical models LSMs) with eight meteorological variables for the 35-year period from 1979 to 2013. The data set is intended for use in a model intercomparison study, called GTMIP, which is a part of the Japanese-funded Arctic Climate Change Research Project. In order to prepare a set of site-fitted forcing data for LSMs with realistic yet continuous entries (i.e. without missing data), four observational sites across the pan-Arctic region (Fairbanks, Tiksi, Yakutsk, and Kevo) were selected to construct a blended data set using both global reanalysis and observational data. Marked improvements were found in the diurnal cycles of surface air temperature and humidity, wind speed, and precipitation. The data sets and participation in GTMIP are open to the scientific community (doi:10.17592/001.2015093001).
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 30-07-2014
Abstract: Abstract. Ocean acidification (OA) is the consequence of rising atmospheric CO2 levels, and it is occurring in conjunction with global warming. Observational studies show that OA will impact ocean biogeochemical cycles. Here, we use an Earth system model under the RCP8.5 emission scenario to evaluate and quantify the first-order impacts of OA on marine biogeochemical cycles, and its potential feedback on our future climate. We find that OA impacts have only a small impact on the future atmospheric CO2 (less than 45 ppm) and global warming (less than a 0.25 K) by 2100. While the climate change feedbacks are small, OA impacts may significantly alter the distribution of biological production and remineralisation, which would alter the dissolved oxygen distribution in the ocean interior. Our results demonstrate that the consequences of OA will not be through its impact on climate change, but on how it impacts the flow of energy in marine ecosystems, which may significantly impact their productivity, composition and ersity.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 23-07-2018
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 22-10-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL089296
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 12-09-2018
DOI: 10.5194/ACP-18-13097-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Geoengineering, or climate intervention, describes methods of deliberately altering the climate system to offset anthropogenic climate change. As an idealized representation of near-surface solar geoengineering over the ocean, such as marine cloud brightening, this paper discusses experiment G1ocean-albedo of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), involving an abrupt quadrupling of the CO2 concentration and an instantaneous increase in ocean albedo to maintain approximate net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux balance. A total of 11 Earth system models are relatively consistent in their temperature, radiative flux, and hydrological cycle responses to this experiment. Due to the imposed forcing, air over the land surface warms by a model average of 1.14 K, while air over most of the ocean cools. Some parts of the near-surface air temperature over ocean warm due to heat transport from land to ocean. These changes generally resolve within a few years, indicating that changes in ocean heat content play at most a small role in the warming over the oceans. The hydrological cycle response is a general slowing down, with high heterogeneity in the response, particularly in the tropics. While idealized, these results have important implications for marine cloud brightening, or other methods of geoengineering involving spatially heterogeneous forcing, or other general forcings with a strong land–ocean contrast. It also reinforces previous findings that keeping top-of-atmosphere net radiative flux constant is not sufficient for preventing changes in global mean temperature.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-10-2017
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3399
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 27-07-2023
DOI: 10.1111/JSR.14002
Abstract: Stimulus control (SC) is commonly viewed as an evidence‐based treatment for insomnia, but it has not been evaluated comprehensively with modern review and meta‐analytic techniques. The aim of the current study was thus to perform a systematic review and meta‐analysis of trials that examine the efficacy of stimulus control for insomnia. A systematic search for eligible articles and dissertations was conducted in six online bibliographic databases. The 11 included studies, with the majority published between 1978 and 1998, were randomised controlled and experimental studies in adults, comparing stimulus control for insomnia with passive and active comparators and assessing insomnia symptoms as outcomes. A random effects model was used to determine the standardised mean difference Hedge's g at post‐treatment and follow‐up for three sleep diary measures: the number of awakenings, sleep onset latency, and total sleep time. A test for heterogeneity was conducted, forest plots were produced, the risk of publication bias was estimated, and the study quality was assessed. In the trials identified, stimulus control resulted in small to large improvements on sleep onset latency and total sleep time, relative to passive comparators ( g = 0.38–0.85). Compared with active comparators, the improvements following stimulus control were negligible ( g = 0.06–0.30). Although methodological uncertainties were observed in the included trials, stimulus control appears to be an efficacious treatment for insomnia when compared with passive comparators and with similar effects to active comparators. More robust studies are, however, warranted before stronger conclusions are possible to infer.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-04-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels continue to rise, increasing the risk of severe impacts on the Earth system, and on the ecosystem services that it provides. Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is capable of reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface warming and addressing ocean acidification. Here, we simulate global and regional responses to alkalinity (ALK) addition (0.25 PmolALK yr−1) over the period 2020–2100 using the CSIRO-Mk3L-COAL Earth System Model, under high (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) emissions. While regionally there are large changes in alkalinity associated with locations of AOA, globally we see only a very weak dependence on where and when AOA is applied. On a global scale, while we see that under RCP2.6 the carbon uptake associated with AOA is only ∼ 60 % of the total, under RCP8.5 the relative changes in temperature are larger, as are the changes in pH (140 %) and aragonite saturation state (170 %). The simulations reveal AOA is more effective under lower emissions, therefore the higher the emissions the more AOA is required to achieve the same reduction in global warming and ocean acidification. Finally, our simulated AOA for 2020–2100 in the RCP2.6 scenario is capable of offsetting warming and ameliorating ocean acidification increases at the global scale, but with highly variable regional responses.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-01-2019
Abstract: Abstract. Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas, whose natural and anthropogenic emissions contribute ∼20 % to global radiative forcing. Its atmospheric budget (sources and sinks), however, has large uncertainties. Inverse modelling, using atmospheric CH4 trends, spatial gradients and isotopic source signatures, has recently improved the major source estimates and their spatial–temporal variation. Nevertheless, isotopic data lack CH4 source representativeness for many sources, and their isotopic signatures are affected by incomplete knowledge of the spatial distribution of some sources, especially those related to fossil (radiocarbon-free) and microbial gas. This gap is particularly wide for geological CH4 (geo-CH4) seepage, i.e. the natural degassing of hydrocarbons from the Earth's crust. While geological seepage is widely considered a major source of atmospheric CH4, it has been largely neglected in 3-D inverse CH4 budget studies given the lack of detailed a priori gridded emission maps. Here, we report for the first time global gridded maps of geological CH4 sources, including emission and isotopic data. The 1∘×1∘ maps include the four main categories of natural geo-CH4 emission: (a) onshore hydrocarbon macro-seeps, including mud volcanoes, (b) submarine (offshore) seeps, (c) diffuse microseepage and (d) geothermal manifestations. An inventory of point sources and area sources was developed for each category, defining areal distribution (activity), CH4 fluxes (emission factors) and its stable C isotope composition (δ13C-CH4). These parameters were determined considering geological factors that control methane origin and seepage (e.g. petroleum fields, sedimentary basins, high heat flow regions, faults, seismicity). The global geo-source map reveals that the regions with the highest CH4 emissions are all located in the Northern Hemisphere, in North America, in the Caspian region, in Europe and in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. The globally gridded CH4 emission estimate (37 Tg yr−1 exclusively based on data and modelling specifically targeted for gridding, and 43–50 Tg yr−1 when extrapolated to also account for onshore and submarine seeps with no location specific measurements available) is compatible with published ranges derived using top-down and bottom-up procedures. Improved activity and emission factor data allowed previously published mud volcanoes and microseepage emission estimates to be refined. The emission-weighted global mean δ13C-CH4 source signature of all geo-CH4 source categories is about −49 ‰. This value is significantly lower than those attributed so far in inverse studies to fossil fuel sources (−44 ‰) and geological seepage (−38 ‰). It is expected that using this updated, more 13C-depleted, isotopic signature in atmospheric modelling will increase the top-down estimate of the geological CH4 source. The geo-CH4 emission grid maps can now be used to improve atmospheric CH4 modelling, thereby improving the accuracy of the fossil fuel and microbial components. Grid csv (comma-separated values) files are available at 0.25925/4j3f-he27.
Publisher: Australian Ocean Data Network
Date: 2022
DOI: 10.26198/AFT3-GB13
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 10-10-2023
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 19-05-2012
DOI: 10.1029/2011GB004095
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 22-03-2013
Abstract: Abstract. The globally integrated sea–air anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) flux from 1990 to 2009 is determined from models and data-based approaches as part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project. Numerical methods include ocean inverse models, atmospheric inverse models, and ocean general circulation models with parameterized biogeochemistry (OBGCMs). The median value of different approaches shows good agreement in average uptake. The best estimate of anthropogenic CO2 uptake for the time period based on a compilation of approaches is −2.0 Pg C yr−1. The interannual variability in the sea–air flux is largely driven by large-scale climate re-organizations and is estimated at 0.2 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades with some systematic differences between approaches. The largest differences between approaches are seen in the decadal trends. The trends range from −0.13 (Pg C yr−1) decade−1 to −0.50 (Pg C yr−1) decade−1 for the two decades under investigation. The OBGCMs and the data-based sea–air CO2 flux estimates show appreciably smaller decadal trends than estimates based on changes in carbon inventory suggesting that methods capable of resolving shorter timescales are showing a slowing of the rate of ocean CO2 uptake. RECCAP model outputs for five decades show similar differences in trends between approaches.
Publisher: Bentham Science Publishers Ltd.
Date: 12-2023
DOI: 10.2174/0929867330666230330092725
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has claimed millions of lives worldwide in the past two years. Fatalities among the elderly with underlying cardiovascular disease, lung disease, and diabetes have particularly been high. A biometrics analysis on author’s keywords was carried out, and searched for possible links between various coronavirus studies over the past 50 years, and integrated them. We found keywords like immune system, immunity, nutrition, malnutrition, micronutrients, exercise, inflammation, and hyperinflammation were highly related to each other. Based on these findings, we hypothesized that the human immune system is a multilevel super complex system, which employs multiple strategies to contain microorganism infections and restore homeostasis. It was also found that the behavior of the immune system is not able to be described by a single immunological theory. However, one main strategy is “self-destroy and rebuild”, which consists of a series of inflammatory responses: 1) active self-destruction of damaged/dysfunctional somatic cells 2) removal of debris and cells 3) rebuilding tissues. Thus, invading microorganisms’ clearance could be only a passive bystander response to this destroy–rebuild process. Microbial infections could be self-limiting and promoted as an indispensable essential nutrition for the vast number of genes existing in the microorganisms. The transient nutrition surge resulting from the degradation of the self-destroyed cell debris coupled with the existing nutrition state in the patient may play an important role in the pathogenesis of COVID-19. Finally, a possible coping strategies to mitigate COVID-19, including vaccination is also discussed.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-07-2022
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 09-03-2022
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 28-05-2019
Abstract: Measurements show large decadal variability in the rate of C O 2 accumulation in the atmosphere that is not driven by C O 2 emissions. The decade of the 1990s experienced enhanced carbon accumulation in the atmosphere relative to emissions, while in the 2000s, the atmospheric growth rate slowed, even though emissions grew rapidly. These variations are driven by natural sources and sinks of C O 2 due to the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere. In this study, we compare three independent methods for estimating oceanic C O 2 uptake and find that the ocean carbon sink could be responsible for up to 40% of the observed decadal variability in atmospheric C O 2 accumulation. Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink from p C O 2 mapping methods and decadal ocean inverse models generally agree on the magnitude and sign of decadal variability in the ocean C O 2 sink at both global and regional scales. Simulations with ocean biogeochemical models confirm that climate variability drove the observed decadal trends in ocean C O 2 uptake, but also demonstrate that the sensitivity of ocean C O 2 uptake to climate variability may be too weak in models. Furthermore, all estimates point toward coherent decadal variability in the oceanic and terrestrial C O 2 sinks, and this variability is not well-matched by current global vegetation models. Reconciling these differences will help to constrain the sensitivity of oceanic and terrestrial C O 2 uptake to climate variability and lead to improved climate projections and decadal climate predictions.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-08-2022
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 14-10-2010
DOI: 10.1029/2009GB003658
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 19-01-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Here we show results from Earth system model simulations from the marine cloud brightening experiment G4cdnc of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The nine contributing models prescribe a 50 % increase in the cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) of low clouds over the global oceans in an experiment dubbed G4cdnc, with the purpose of counteracting the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases under the RCP4.5 scenario. The model ensemble median effective radiative forcing (ERF) amounts to −1.9 W m−2, with a substantial inter-model spread of −0.6 to −2.5 W m−2. The large spread is partly related to the considerable differences in clouds and their representation between the models, with an underestimation of low clouds in several of the models. All models predict a statistically significant temperature decrease with a median of (for years 2020–2069) −0.96 [−0.17 to −1.21] K relative to the RCP4.5 scenario, with particularly strong cooling over low-latitude continents. Globally averaged there is a weak but significant precipitation decrease of −2.35 [−0.57 to −2.96] % due to a colder climate, but at low latitudes there is a 1.19 % increase over land. This increase is part of a circulation change where a strong negative top-of-atmosphere (TOA) shortwave forcing over subtropical oceans, caused by increased albedo associated with the increasing CDNC, is compensated for by rising motion and positive TOA longwave signals over adjacent land regions.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-06-2018
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 06-2021
Abstract: The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is a globally significant coral reef system supporting productive and erse ecosystems. The GBR is under increasing threat from climate change and local anthropogenic stressors, with its general condition degrading over recent decades. In response to this, a number of techniques have been proposed to offset or ameliorate environmental changes. In this study, we use a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model of the GBR and surrounding ocean to simulate artificial ocean alkalinisation (AOA) as a means to reverse the impact of global ocean acidification on GBR reefs. Our results demonstrate that a continuous release of 90 000 t of alkalinity every 3 d over one year along the entire length of the GBR, following the Gladstone-Weipa bulk carrier route, increases the mean aragonite saturation state ( Ω a r ) across the GBR’s 3860 reefs by 0.05. This change offsets just over 4 years (∼4.2) of ocean acidification under the present rate of anthropogenic carbon emissions. The injection raises Ω a r in the 250 reefs closest to the route by ⩾ 0.15 , reversing further projected Ocean Acidification. Following cessation of alkalinity injection Ω a r returns to the value of the waters in the absence of AOA over a 6 month period, primarily due to transport of additional alkalinity into the Coral Sea. Significantly, our study provides for the first time a model of AOA applied along existing shipping infrastructure that has been used to investigate shelf scale impacts. Thus, amelioration of decades of OA on the GBR is feasible using existing infrastructure, but is likely to be extremely expensive, include as yet unquantified risks, and would need to be undertaken continuously until such time, probably centuries in the future, when atmospheric CO 2 concentrations have returned to today’s values.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 04-04-2013
Abstract: Abstract. A well-documented, publicly available, global data set of surface ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) parameters has been called for by international groups for nearly two decades. The Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) project was initiated by the international marine carbon science community in 2007 with the aim of providing a comprehensive, publicly available, regularly updated, global data set of marine surface CO2, which had been subject to quality control (QC). Many additional CO2 data, not yet made public via the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), were retrieved from data originators, public websites and other data centres. All data were put in a uniform format following a strict protocol. Quality control was carried out according to clearly defined criteria. Regional specialists performed the quality control, using state-of-the-art web-based tools, specially developed for accomplishing this global team effort. SOCAT version 1.5 was made public in September 2011 and holds 6.3 million quality controlled surface CO2 data points from the global oceans and coastal seas, spanning four decades (1968–2007). Three types of data products are available: in idual cruise files, a merged complete data set and gridded products. With the rapid expansion of marine CO2 data collection and the importance of quantifying net global oceanic CO2 uptake and its changes, sustained data synthesis and data access are priorities.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-11-2013
Abstract: Abstract. The Indian Ocean (44° S–30° N) plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, yet it remains one of the most poorly s led ocean regions. Several approaches have been used to estimate net sea–air CO2 fluxes in this region: interpolated observations, ocean biogeochemical models, atmospheric and ocean inversions. As part of the RECCAP (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) project, we combine these different approaches to quantify and assess the magnitude and variability in Indian Ocean sea–air CO2 fluxes between 1990 and 2009. Using all of the models and inversions, the median annual mean sea–air CO2 uptake of −0.37 ± 0.06 PgC yr−1 is consistent with the −0.24 ± 0.12 PgC yr−1 calculated from observations. The fluxes from the southern Indian Ocean (18–44° S −0.43 ± 0.07 PgC yr−1 are similar in magnitude to the annual uptake for the entire Indian Ocean. All models capture the observed pattern of fluxes in the Indian Ocean with the following exceptions: underestimation of upwelling fluxes in the northwestern region (off Oman and Somalia), overestimation in the northeastern region (Bay of Bengal) and underestimation of the CO2 sink in the subtropical convergence zone. These differences were mainly driven by lack of atmospheric CO2 data in atmospheric inversions, and poor simulation of monsoonal currents and freshwater discharge in ocean biogeochemical models. Overall, the models and inversions do capture the phase of the observed seasonality for the entire Indian Ocean but overestimate the magnitude. The predicted sea–air CO2 fluxes by ocean biogeochemical models (OBGMs) respond to seasonal variability with strong phase lags with reference to climatological CO2 flux, whereas the atmospheric inversions predicted an order of magnitude higher seasonal flux than OBGMs. The simulated interannual variability by the OBGMs is weaker than that found by atmospheric inversions. Prediction of such weak interannual variability in CO2 fluxes by atmospheric inversions was mainly caused by a lack of atmospheric data in the Indian Ocean. The OBGM models suggest a small strengthening of the sink over the period 1990–2009 of −0.01 PgC decade−1. This is inconsistent with the observations in the southwestern Indian Ocean that shows the growth rate of oceanic pCO2 was faster than the observed atmospheric CO2 growth, a finding attributed to the trend of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the 1990s.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 03-05-2013
Abstract: Abstract. Analysis of the variability of the last 18 yr (1993–2012) of a 32 yr run of a new near-global, eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model coupled with biogeochemistry is presented. Comparisons between modelled and observed mean sea level (MSL), mixed layer depth (MLD), sea level anomaly (SLA), sea surface temperature (SST), and {\\\\chla} indicate that the model variability is realistic. We find some systematic errors in the modelled MLD, with the model generally deeper than observations, which results in errors in the {\\\\chla}, owing to the strong biophysical coupling. We evaluate several other metrics in the model, including the zonally averaged seasonal cycle of SST, meridional overturning, volume transports through key straits and passages, zonally averaged temperature and salinity, and El Niño-related SST indices. We find that the modelled seasonal cycle in SST is 0.5–1.5 °C weaker than observed volume transports of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the East Australian Current, and Indonesian Throughflow are in good agreement with observational estimates and the correlation between the modelled and observed NINO SST indices exceeds 0.91. Most aspects of the model circulation are realistic. We conclude that the model output is suitable for broader analysis to better understand upper ocean dynamics and ocean variability at mid- and low latitudes. The new model is intended to underpin a future version of Australia's operational short-range ocean forecasting system.
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 26-10-2015
Abstract: We estimate that stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering may somewhat ameliorate Atlantic hurricane intensity and frequency, but there will be more “Katrina”-level events than during the past 30 y. Geoengineering would likely be reasonably effective at controlling coastal flood risk relative to the coastal flood risk expected under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 greenhouse gas warming, in part, due to its impact on global sea level rise, although flood risk would still be significantly larger than at present.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 21-03-2016
Abstract: Abstract. The ocean has become more acidic over the last 200 years in response increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. Documenting how the ocean has changed is critical for assessing how these changes impact marine ecosystems and for the management of marine resources. Here we use present-day ocean carbon observations, from shelf and offshore waters around Australia, combined with neural network mapping of CO2, sea surface temperature, and salinity to estimate the current seasonal and regional distributions of carbonate chemistry (pH and aragonite saturation state). The observed changes in atmospheric CO2 and sea surface temperature (SST) and climatological salinity are then used to reconstruct pH and aragonite saturation state changes over the last 140 years (1870–2013). The comparison with data collected at Integrated Marine Observing System National Reference Station sites located on the shelf around Australia shows that both the mean state and seasonality in the present day are well represented, with the exception of sites such as the Great Barrier Reef. Our reconstruction predicts that since 1870 decrease in aragonite saturation state of 0.48 and of 0.09 in pH has occurred in response to increasing oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2. Large seasonal variability in pH and aragonite saturation state occur in southwestern Australia driven by ocean dynamics (mixing) and in the Tasman Sea by seasonal warming (in the case of the aragonite saturation state). The seasonal and historical changes in aragonite saturation state and pH have different spatial patterns and suggest that the biological responses to ocean acidification are likely to be non-uniform depending on the relative sensitivity of organisms to shifts in pH and saturation state. This new historical reconstruction provides an important link to biological observations that will help to elucidate the consequences of ocean acidification.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2015
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2737
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 03-2016
Publisher: CSIRO
Date: 2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-07-2012
DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1523
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-10-2023
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 30-05-2007
DOI: 10.1029/2006GB002714
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 17-03-2009
Abstract: Abstract. The ocean's ability to store large quantities of carbon, combined with the millennial longevity over which this reservoir is overturned, has implicated the ocean as a key driver of glacial–interglacial climates. However, the combination of processes that cause an accumulation of carbon within the ocean during glacial periods is still under debate. Here we present simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using the CSIRO Mk3L-COAL (Carbon–Ocean–Atmosphere–Land) earth system model to test the contribution of physical and biogeochemical processes to ocean carbon storage. For the LGM simulation, we find a significant global cooling of the surface ocean (3.2 °C) and the expansion of both minimum and maximum sea ice cover broadly consistent with proxy reconstructions. The glacial ocean stores an additional 267 Pg C in the deep ocean relative to the pre-industrial (PI) simulation due to stronger Antarctic Bottom Water formation. However, 889 Pg C is lost from the upper ocean via equilibration with a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration and a global decrease in export production, causing a net loss of carbon relative to the PI ocean. The LGM deep ocean also experiences an oxygenation ( 100 mmol O2 m−3) and deepening of the calcite saturation horizon (exceeds the ocean bottom) at odds with proxy reconstructions. With modifications to key biogeochemical processes, which include an increased export of organic matter due to a simulated release from iron limitation, a deepening of remineralisation and decreased inorganic carbon export driven by cooler temperatures, we find that the carbon content of the glacial ocean can be sufficiently increased (317 Pg C) to explain the reduction in atmospheric and terrestrial carbon at the LGM (194 ± 2 and 330 ± 400 Pg C, respectively). Assuming an LGM–PI difference of 95 ppm pCO2, we find that 55 ppm can be attributed to the biological pump, 28 ppm to circulation changes and the remaining 12 ppm to solubility. The biogeochemical modifications also improve model–proxy agreement in export production, carbonate chemistry and dissolved oxygen fields. Thus, we find strong evidence that variations in the oceanic biological pump exert a primary control on the climate.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-10-2023
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-01-2018
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018JC014655
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017GB005669
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 17-08-2021
DOI: 10.1111/JSR.13464
Abstract: Paradoxical intention (PI) has been considered an evidence‐based treatment for insomnia since the 1990s, but it has not been evaluated with modern review techniques such as meta‐analysis. The present study aimed to conduct the first systematic review and meta‐analysis of studies that explore the effectiveness of PI for insomnia on insomnia symptomatology and theory‐derived processes. A systematic review and meta‐analysis was conducted by searching for eligible articles or dissertations in six online bibliographic databases. Randomised controlled trials and experimental studies comparing PI for insomnia to active and passive comparators and assessing insomnia symptoms as outcomes were included. A random effects model was estimated to determine the standardised mean difference Hedge’s g at post‐treatment. Test for heterogeneity was performed, fail‐safe N was calculated, and study quality was assessed. The study was pre‐registered at International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO, CRD42019137357). A total of 10 trials were identified. Compared to passive comparators, PI led to large improvements in key insomnia symptoms. Relative to active comparators, the improvements were smaller, but still moderate for several central outcomes. Compared to passive comparators, PI resulted in great reductions in sleep‐related performance anxiety, one of several proposed mechanisms of change for PI. PI for insomnia resulted in marked clinical improvements, large relative to passive comparators and moderate compared to active comparators. However, methodologically stronger studies are needed before more firm conclusions can be drawn.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018EF000990
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 18-08-2020
Abstract: Abstract. Results from the fully and biogeochemically coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1 % yr−1 (1pctCO2) from its preindustrial value are analyzed to quantify the magnitude of carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters which measure the response of ocean and terrestrial carbon pools to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the resulting change in global climate, respectively. The results are based on 11 comprehensive Earth system models from the most recent (sixth) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and compared with eight models from the fifth CMIP (CMIP5). The strength of the carbon–concentration feedback is of comparable magnitudes over land (mean ± standard deviation = 0.97 ± 0.40 PgC ppm−1) and ocean (0.79 ± 0.07 PgC ppm−1), while the carbon–climate feedback over land (−45.1 ± 50.6 PgC ∘C−1) is about 3 times larger than over ocean (−17.2 ± 5.0 PgC ∘C−1). The strength of both feedbacks is an order of magnitude more uncertain over land than over ocean as has been seen in existing studies. These values and their spread from 11 CMIP6 models have not changed significantly compared to CMIP5 models. The absolute values of feedback parameters are lower for land with models that include a representation of nitrogen cycle. The transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the 11 CMIP6 models considered here is 1.77 ± 0.37 ∘C EgC−1 and is similar to that found in CMIP5 models (1.63 ± 0.48 ∘C EgC−1) but with somewhat reduced model spread. The expressions for feedback parameters based on the fully and biogeochemically coupled configurations of the 1pctCO2 simulation are simplified when the small temperature change in the biogeochemically coupled simulation is ignored. Decomposition of the terms of these simplified expressions for the feedback parameters is used to gain insight into the reasons for differing responses among ocean and land carbon cycle models.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 14-11-2016
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), EFF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr−1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2 % (range of −1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016).
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 08-05-2015
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr−1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 08-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020JC016115
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 17-11-2006
DOI: 10.1029/2005GB002620
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 14-07-2022
DOI: 10.1071/ES21031
Abstract: The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) has contributed to the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) using two fully coupled model versions (ACCESS-CM2 and ACCESS-ESM1.5) and two ocean–sea-ice model versions (1° and 0.25° resolution versions of ACCESS-OM2). The fully coupled models differ primarily in the configuration and version of their atmosphere components (including the aerosol scheme), with smaller differences in their sea-ice and land model versions. Additionally, ACCESS-ESM1.5 includes biogeochemistry in the land and ocean components and can be run with an interactive carbon cycle. CMIP6 comprises core experiments and associated thematic Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). This paper provides an overview of the CMIP6 submission, including the methods used for the preparation of input forcing datasets and the post-processing of model output, along with a comprehensive list of experiments performed, detailing their initialisation, duration, ensemble number and computational cost. A small selection of model output is presented, focusing on idealised experiments and their variants at global scale. Differences in the climate simulation of the two coupled models are highlighted. ACCESS-CM2 produces a larger equilibrium climate sensitivity (4.7°C) than ACCESS-ESM1.5 (3.9°C), likely a result of updated atmospheric parameterisation in recent versions of the atmospheric component of ACCESS-CM2. The idealised experiments run with ACCESS-ESM1.5 show that land and ocean carbon fluxes respond to both changing atmospheric CO2 and to changing temperature. ACCESS data submitted to CMIP6 are available from the Earth System Grid Federation (0.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2281 and 0.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.2288). The information provided in this paper should facilitate easier use of these significant datasets by the broader climate community.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 30-04-2021
Abstract: GamTest is a self-rating scale of negative consequences of gambling, included in the popular responsible gambling tool Playscan as part of an overall risk assessment and feedback feature. Two previous psychometric evaluations of this instrument yielded contradictory results: in an online high-gambling population, a five-factor model was supported and the instrument had overall good psychometric properties, but in a low-gambling population, the same factor structure was not supported. Because GamTest is used with both low- and high-gambling populations, more psychometric research is needed to fully understand how the instrument works. The current study examined, for the first time, psychometric performance among a s le of low-gambling respondents using a Rasch analysis. Results indicated that the instrument could be improved by decreasing the scale-steps and removing several problematic items demonstrating misfit. Furthermore, the findings indicated that some items functioned differently depending on gender, and that a shortened, improved nine-item version could not differentiate between different levels of risk. Our findings suggest that the instrument would arguably benefit from being adapted for use in a low-gambling population.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-02-2014
Abstract: Abstract. Air–sea CO2 fluxes over the Pacific Ocean are known to be characterized by coherent large-scale structures that reflect not only ocean subduction and upwelling patterns, but also the combined effects of wind-driven gas exchange and biology. On the largest scales, a large net CO2 influx into the extratropics is associated with a robust seasonal cycle, and a large net CO2 efflux from the tropics is associated with substantial interannual variability. In this work, we have synthesized estimates of the net air–sea CO2 flux from a variety of products, drawing upon a variety of approaches in three sub-basins of the Pacific Ocean, i.e., the North Pacific extratropics (18–66° N), the tropical Pacific (18° S–18° N), and the South Pacific extratropics (44.5–18° S). These approaches include those based on the measurements of CO2 partial pressure in surface seawater (pCO2sw), inversions of ocean-interior CO2 data, forward ocean biogeochemistry models embedded in the ocean general circulation models (OBGCMs), a model with assimilation of pCO2sw data, and inversions of atmospheric CO2 measurements. Long-term means, interannual variations and mean seasonal variations of the regionally integrated fluxes were compared in each of the sub-basins over the last two decades, spanning the period from 1990 through 2009. A simple average of the long-term mean fluxes obtained with surface water pCO2 diagnostics and those obtained with ocean-interior CO2 inversions are −0.47 ± 0.13 Pg C yr−1 in the North Pacific extratropics, +0.44 ± 0.14 Pg C yr−1 in the tropical Pacific, and −0.37 ± 0.08 Pg C yr−1 in the South Pacific extratropics, where positive fluxes are into the atmosphere. This suggests that approximately half of the CO2 taken up over the North and South Pacific extratropics is released back to the atmosphere from the tropical Pacific. These estimates of the regional fluxes are also supported by the estimates from OBGCMs after adding the riverine CO2 flux, i.e., −0.49 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1 in the North Pacific extratropics, +0.41 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−1 in the tropical Pacific, and −0.39 ± 0.11 Pg C yr−1 in the South Pacific extratropics. The estimates from the atmospheric CO2 inversions show large variations amongst different inversion systems, but their median fluxes are consistent with the estimates from climatological pCO2sw data and pCO2sw diagnostics. In the South Pacific extratropics, where CO2 variations in the surface and ocean interior are severely unders led, the difference in the air–sea CO2 flux estimates between the diagnostic models and ocean-interior CO2 inversions is larger (0.18 Pg C yr−1). The range of estimates from forward OBGCMs is also large (−0.19 to −0.72 Pg C yr−1). Regarding interannual variability of air–sea CO2 fluxes, positive and negative anomalies are evident in the tropical Pacific during the cold and warm events of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the estimates from pCO2sw diagnostic models and from OBGCMs. They are consistent in phase with the Southern Oscillation Index, but the peak-to-peak litudes tend to be higher in OBGCMs (0.40 ± 0.09 Pg C yr−1) than in the diagnostic models (0.27 ± 0.07 Pg C yr−1).
Publisher: Stockholm University Press
Date: 2014
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2018
DOI: 10.1002/2017JC012861
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-2004
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 22-03-2017
DOI: 10.1029/2017EO068385
Abstract: First Workshop of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project Potsdam, Germany, 20–22 September 2016
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-04-2019
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-01-2016
DOI: 10.5194/CP-12-1-2016
Abstract: Abstract. Middle Holocene cultures have been widely studied around the Eastern-Mediterranean basin in the last 30 years and past cultural activities have been commonly linked with regional climate changes. However, in many cases such linkage is equivocal, in part due to existing climatic evidence that has been derived from areas outside the distribution of ancient settlements, leading to uncertainty from complex spatial heterogeneity in both climate and demography. A few high-resolution well-dated paleoclimate records were recently established using speleothems in the Central and Eastern-Mediterranean basin, however, the scarcity of such records in the western part of the Mediterranean prevents us from correlating past climate evolutions across the basin and deciphering climate–culture relation at fine timescales. Here we report the first decadal-resolved Mid-Holocene climate proxy records from the Western-Mediterranean basin based on the stable carbon and oxygen isotopes analyses of two U/Th dated stalagmites from the Gueldaman GLD1 Cave in Northern Algeria. Comparison of our records with those from Italy and Israel reveals synchronous (multi) centennial dry phases centered at ca. 5600, ca. 5200 and ca. 4200 yr BP across the Mediterranean basin. New calibrated radiocarbon dating constrains reasonably well the age of rich anthropogenic deposits (e.g., faunal remains, pottery, charcoal) excavated inside the cave, which allows the comparison between in situ evidence of human occupation and of climate change. This approach shows that the timing of a prolonged drought at ca. 4400–3800 yr BP blankets the onset of cave abandonment shortly after ca. 4403 cal yr BP, supporting the hypothesis that a climate anomaly may have played a role in this cultural disruption.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-03-2021
DOI: 10.1111/LIV.14825
Abstract: Non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a chronic disease that can progress to end‐stage liver disease (ESLD). A large proportion of early‐stage NASH patients remain undiagnosed compared to those with advanced fibrosis, who are more likely to receive disease management interventions. This study estimated the disease burden and economic impact of diagnosed NASH in the adult population of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom in 2018. The socioeconomic burden of diagnosed NASH was estimated using cost‐of‐illness methodology applying a prevalence approach to estimate the number of adults with NASH and the attributable economic and wellbeing costs. Given undiagnosed patients do not incur costs in the study, the probability of diagnosis is central to cost estimation. The analysis was based on a literature review, databases and consultation with clinical experts, economists and patient groups. The proportion of adult NASH patients with a diagnosis ranged from 11.9% to 12.7% across countries, which increased to 38.8%‐39.1% for advanced fibrosis (F3‐F4 compensated cirrhosis). Total economic costs were €8548‐19 546M. Of these, health system costs were €619‐1292M. Total wellbeing costs were €41 536‐90 379M. The majority of the undiagnosed population (87.3%‐88.2% of total prevalence) was found to have early‐stage NASH, which, left untreated, may progress to more resource consuming ESLD over time. This study found that the majority of economic and wellbeing costs of NASH are experienced in late disease stages. Earlier diagnosis and care of NASH patients could reduce future healthcare costs.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-06-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2022
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 10-2018
DOI: 10.1029/2018GB005977
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-03-2020
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-07-2017
Abstract: Abstract. Over the last decade many climate models have evolved into Earth system models (ESMs), which are able to simulate both physical and biogeochemical processes through the inclusion of additional components such as the carbon cycle. The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) has been recently extended to include land and ocean carbon cycle components in its ACCESS-ESM1 version. A detailed description of ACCESS-ESM1 components including results from pre-industrial simulations is provided in Part 1. Here, we focus on the evaluation of ACCESS-ESM1 over the historical period (1850–2005) in terms of its capability to reproduce climate and carbon-related variables. Comparisons are performed with observations, if available, but also with other ESMs to highlight common weaknesses. We find that climate variables controlling the exchange of carbon are well reproduced. However, the aerosol forcing in ACCESS-ESM1 is somewhat larger than in other models, which leads to an overly strong cooling response in the land from about 1960 onwards. The land carbon cycle is evaluated for two scenarios: running with a prescribed leaf area index (LAI) and running with a prognostic LAI. We overestimate the seasonal mean (1.7 vs. 1.4) and peak litude (2.0 vs. 1.8) of the prognostic LAI at the global scale, which is common amongst CMIP5 ESMs. However, the prognostic LAI is our preferred choice, because it allows for the vegetation feedback through the coupling between LAI and the leaf carbon pool. Our globally integrated land–atmosphere flux over the historical period is 98 PgC for prescribed LAI and 137 PgC for prognostic LAI, which is in line with estimates of land use emissions (ACCESS-ESM1 does not include land use change). The integrated ocean–atmosphere flux is 83 PgC, which is in agreement with a recent estimate of 82 PgC from the Global Carbon Project for the period 1959–2005. The seasonal cycle of simulated atmospheric CO2 is close to the observed seasonal cycle (up to 1 ppm difference for the station at Mace Head and up to 2 ppm for the station at Mauna Loa), but shows a larger litude (up to 6 ppm) in the high northern latitudes. Overall, ACCESS-ESM1 performs well over the historical period, making it a useful tool to explore the change in land and oceanic carbon uptake in the future.
Publisher: Authorea, Inc.
Date: 25-05-2023
DOI: 10.22541/ESSOAR.168500331.18868876/V1
Abstract: We use inverse modelling to infer the distribution and drivers of community-integrated zooplankton grazing dynamics based on the skill with which different grazing formulations recreate the satellite-observed seasonal cycle in phytoplankton biomass. We find that oligotrophic and eutrophic biomes require more and less efficient grazing dynamics, respectively. This is characteristic of micro- and mesozooplankton, respectively, and leads to a strong sigmoidal relationship between observed mean-annual phytoplankton biomass and the optimal grazing parameterization required to simulate its seasonal cycle. Globally, we find Type III rather than Type II functional response curves consistently exhibit higher skill. These new observationally-based distributions can help constrain, validate and develop next-generation biogeochemical models.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 22-03-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Carbon–climate feedbacks have the potential to significantly impact the future climate by altering atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Zaehle et al., 2010). By modifying the future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the carbon–climate feedbacks will also influence the future ocean acidification trajectory. Here, we use the CO2 emissions scenarios from four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with an Earth system model to project the future trajectories of ocean acidification with the inclusion of carbon–climate feedbacks. We show that simulated carbon–climate feedbacks can significantly impact the onset of undersaturated aragonite conditions in the Southern and Arctic oceans, the suitable habitat for tropical coral and the deepwater saturation states. Under the high-emissions scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP6), the carbon–climate feedbacks advance the onset of surface water under saturation and the decline in suitable coral reef habitat by a decade or more. The impacts of the carbon–climate feedbacks are most significant for the medium- (RCP4.5) and low-emissions (RCP2.6) scenarios. For the RCP4.5 scenario, by 2100 the carbon–climate feedbacks nearly double the area of surface water undersaturated with respect to aragonite and reduce by 50 % the surface water suitable for coral reefs. For the RCP2.6 scenario, by 2100 the carbon–climate feedbacks reduce the area suitable for coral reefs by 40 % and increase the area of undersaturated surface water by 20 %. The sensitivity of ocean acidification to the carbon–climate feedbacks in the low to medium emission scenarios is important because recent CO2 emission reduction commitments are trying to transition emissions to such a scenario. Our study highlights the need to better characterise the carbon–climate feedbacks and ensure we do not underestimate the projected ocean acidification.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 04-04-2013
Abstract: Abstract. As a response to public demand for a well-documented, quality controlled, publically available, global surface ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) data set, the international marine carbon science community developed the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT). The first SOCAT product is a collection of 6.3 million quality controlled surface CO2 data from the global oceans and coastal seas, spanning four decades (1968–2007). The SOCAT gridded data presented here is the second data product to come from the SOCAT project. Recognizing that some groups may have trouble working with millions of measurements, the SOCAT gridded product was generated to provide a robust, regularly spaced CO2 fugacity (fCO2) product with minimal spatial and temporal interpolation, which should be easier to work with for many applications. Gridded SOCAT is rich with information that has not been fully explored yet (e.g., regional differences in the seasonal cycles), but also contains biases and limitations that the user needs to recognize and address (e.g., local influences on values in some coastal regions).
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-06-2023
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-023-00871-W
Abstract: The current generation of Earth system models used by the United Nations to project future climate scenarios (CMIP6) relies heavily on marine biogeochemical models to track the fate of carbon absorbed into the oceans. Here we compare 11 CMIP6 marine biogeochemical models and find the largest source of inter-model uncertainty in their representation of the marine carbon cycle is phytoplankton-specific loss rates to zooplankton grazing. This uncertainty is over three times larger than that of net primary production and driven by large differences in prescribed zooplankton grazing dynamics. We run a controlled sensitivity experiment in a global marine biogeochemical model and find that small changes in prescribed grazing dynamics (roughly 5% of what is used across CMIP6 models) can increase secondary and export production by 5 and 2 PgC yr −1 , respectively, even when tuned to identical net primary production, likely biasing predictions of future climate states and food security.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 03-2017
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 17-06-2004
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-12-2017
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-017-17292-3
Abstract: The Southern Ocean has taken up more than 40% of the total anthropogenic carbon (C ant ) stored in the oceans since the preindustrial era, mainly in subantarctic mode and intermediate waters (SAMW-AAIW). However, the physical mechanisms responsible for the transfer of C ant into the ocean interior remain poorly understood. Here, we use high resolution (1/10°) ocean simulations to investigate these mechanisms at the SAMW-AAIW subduction hotspots. Mesoscale Stationary Rossby Waves (SRWs), generated where the Antarctic Circumpolar Current interacts with topography, make the dominant contribution to the C ant transfer in SAMW-AAIW in the Indian and Pacific sectors (66% and 95% respectively). Eddy-resolving simulations reproduce the observed C ant sequestration in these layers, while lower spatial resolution models, that do not reproduce SRWs, underestimate the inventory of C ant in these layers by 40% and overestimate the storage in denser layers. A key implication is that climate model simulations, that lack sufficient resolution to represent sequestration by SRWs, are therefore likely to overestimate the residence time of C ant in the ocean, with implications for simulated rates of climate change.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2009
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 29-03-2018
Abstract: Abstract. The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention – deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2019JC015071
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-02-2008
Abstract: Abstract. We compiled a large data-set from 22 cruises spanning from 1991 to 2003, of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in surface waters over the continental shelf (CS) and adjacent open ocean (43° to 46° S 145° to 150° E), south of Tasmania. Climatological seasonal cycles of pCO2 in the CS, the subtropical zone (STZ) and the subAntarctic zone (SAZ) are described and used to determine monthly pCO2 anomalies. These are used in combination with monthly anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) to investigate inter-annual variations of SST and pCO2. Monthly anomalies of SST (as intense as 2°C) are apparent in the CS, STZ and SAZ, and are indicative of strong inter-annual variability that seems to be related to large-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean oscillations. Anomalies of pCO2 normalized to a constant temperature are negatively related to SST anomalies. A reduced winter-time vertical input of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) during phases of positive SST anomalies, related to a poleward shift of westerly winds, and a concomitant local decrease in wind stress is the likely cause of the negative relationship between pCO2 and SST anomalies. The observed pattern is an increase of the sink for atmospheric CO2 associated with positive SST anomalies, although strongly modulated by inter-annual variability of wind speed. Assuming that phases of positive SST anomalies are indicative of the future evolution of regional ocean biogeochemistry under global warming, we show using a purely observational based approach that some provinces of the Southern Ocean could provide a potential negative feedback on increasing atmospheric CO2.
Publisher: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
Date: 03-2015
DOI: 10.22499/2.6501.012
Location: Australia
Location: Australia
Start Date: 05-2019
End Date: 05-2022
Amount: $493,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
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