ARDC Research Link Australia

ORCID Profile
Orcid icon. 0000-0003-0228-2446

Current Organisations
National Center for Potato, Vegetable and Spice Crops Development , The University of Queesland

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Publications

Publication

Forecasting Area, Production and Productivity of Vegetable Crops in Nepal using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model

Publisher: Turkish Science and Technology Publishing (TURSTEP)

Date: 03-2022

DOI: 10.24925/TURJAF.V10I2.174-181.4618

Abstract: Forecasting of vegetable area, production, and productivity of Nepal was made from the historical data of 1977/78 to 2019/20 by using the Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The best fitted ARIMA models were chosen based on the minimum value of the selection criterion, Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model was found suitable for all areas and production, whereas ARIMA (0, 2, 0) model was best fitted for forecasting vegetable productivity. The model was cross-validated by comparing the point prediction with the actual test series data from 2015/16 to 2019/20. The performances of models were determined from the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) value. The MAPE was found to be 2.70%, 2.40%, and 3.80%, respectively for the prediction of area, production, and productivity. The forecast was made for the immediate five years (2020/21 to 2024/25), and it showed an increasing value for area and production while the forecasts of productivity had lower values. The vegetable production policy in Nepal should be planned following accurate forecasts to increase production in the upcoming years. Awareness among the vegetable growers should be raised in the following years with appropriate extension programs.

Publication

Farmers’ perception and determinants of dairy cattle insurance in Nepal

Publisher: Informa UK Limited

Date: 2021

DOI: 10.1080/23311932.2021.1911422

Publication

Profitability and determinants of protected vegetable farming in Nepal

Publisher: Informa UK Limited

Date: 20-04-2023

Location: Nepal

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Related Funding Activities

No related grants have been discovered for Sandip Subedi.

Sandip Subedi

Researcher

Related Links

Publications

Forecasting Area, Production and Productivity of Vegetable Crops in Nepal using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model

Farmers’ perception and determinants of dairy cattle insurance in Nepal

Profitability and determinants of protected vegetable farming in Nepal

Related Organisations

Institute Of Agriculture And Animal Sciences

Caritas Nepal

National Center For Potato, Vegetable And Spice Crops Development

Morning Star Awasiya Ma Vi

Agriculture And Forestry University

The University Of Queesland

Sagarmatha Higher Secondary School

Related Funding Activities

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