ORCID Profile
0000-0003-4359-5895
Current Organisation
CSIRO
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Research Topics
In Research Link Australia (RLA), "Research Topics" refer to ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes. These topics are either sourced from ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes listed in researchers' related grants or generated by a large language model (LLM) based on their publications.
Top 5 Research Topics
ANZSRC Field of Research (FoR)
Global Change Biology | Environmental Science and Management | Ecosystem Function | Ecological Applications | Other Biological Sciences | Atmospheric Sciences | Reaction Kinetics And Dynamics | Environmental Chemistry (Incl. Atmospheric Chemistry) | Natural Resource Management | Environmental Monitoring | Sustainability Accounting and Reporting | Atmospheric Sciences Not Elsewhere Classified | Ecological Physiology | Climatology (excl. Climate Change Processes)
ANZSRC Socio-Economic Objective (SEO)
Sparseland, Permanent Grassland and Arid Zone Land and Water Management | Environmental Management Systems | Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts) | Management of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Plant Production | Ecosystem Assessment and Management at Regional or Larger Scales | Air quality | Native Forests | Chemical sciences | Physical sciences | Sustainability Indicators |
Related Links
Publications
Causes of slowing‐down seasonal CO2 amplitude at Mauna Loa
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-06-2020
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.15162
Abstract: Changing litude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO 2 (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO 2 record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s ( p .01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing‐down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO 2 fertilization. This challenges the view that CO 2 fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land–atmosphere CO 2 flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs.
Rotational effects in the band oscillator strengths and predissociation linewidths for the lowest 1Π u - X 1∑ +g transitions of N 2
Publisher: AIP Publishing
Date: 12-2005
DOI: 10.1063/1.2134704
Abstract: A coupled-channel Schrödinger equation (CSE) model of N2 photodissociation, which includes the effects of all interactions between the b, c, and oΠu1 and the C and C′Πu3 states, is employed to study the effects of rotation on the lowest-υΠu1–XΣg+1(υ,0) band oscillator strengths and Πu1 predissociation linewidths. Significant rotational dependences are found which are in excellent agreement with recent experimental results, where comparisons are possible. New extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) photoabsorption spectra of the key bΠu1←XΣg+1(3,0) transition of N2 are also presented and analyzed, revealing a b(υ=3) predissociation linewidth peaking near J=11. This behavior can be reproduced only if the triplet structure of the C state is included explicitly in the CSE-model calculations, with a spin-orbit constant A≈15cm−1 for the diffuse C(υ=9) level which accidentally predissociates b(υ=3). The complex rotational behavior of the b–X(3,0) and other bands may be an important component in the modeling of EUV transmission through nitrogen-rich planetary atmospheres.
Thermal optima of gross primary productivity are closely aligned with mean air temperatures across Australian wooded ecosystems
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-07-2021
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.15760
Abstract: Gross primary productivity (GPP) of wooded ecosystems (forests and savannas) is central to the global carbon cycle, comprising 67%–75% of total global terrestrial GPP. Climate change may alter this flux by increasing the frequency of temperatures beyond the thermal optimum of GPP ( T opt ). We examined the relationship between GPP and air temperature (Ta) in 17 wooded ecosystems dominated by a single plant functional type (broadleaf evergreen trees) occurring over a broad climatic gradient encompassing five ecoregions across Australia ranging from tropical in the north to Mediterranean and temperate in the south. We applied a novel boundary‐line analysis to eddy covariance flux observations to (a) derive ecosystem GPP–Ta relationships and T opt (including seasonal analyses for five tropical savannas) (b) quantitatively and qualitatively assess GPP–Ta relationships within and among ecoregions (c) examine the relationship between T opt and mean daytime air temperature (MDTa) across all ecosystems and (d) examine how down‐welling short‐wave radiation (Fsd) and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) influence the GPP–Ta relationship. GPP–Ta relationships were convex parabolas with narrow curves in tropical forests, tropical savannas (wet season), and temperate forests, and wider curves in temperate woodlands, Mediterranean woodlands, and tropical savannas (dry season). Ecosystem T opt ranged from 15℃ (temperate forest) to 32℃ (tropical savanna—wet and dry seasons). The shape of GPP–Ta curves was largely determined by daytime Ta range, MDTa, and maximum GPP with the upslope influenced by Fsd and the downslope influenced by VPD. Across all ecosystems, there was a strong positive linear relationship between T opt and MDTa (Adjusted R 2 : 0.81 Slope: 1.08) with T opt exceeding MDTa by ℃ at all but two sites. We conclude that ecosystem GPP has adjusted to local MDTa within Australian broadleaf evergreen forests and that GPP is buffered against small Ta increases in the majority of these ecosystems.
The 248 nm photolysis of NO2/N2O4: Time-resolved Fourier transform infrared emission from NO and NO2, and quenching of NO (v=5–8)
Publisher: AIP Publishing
Date: 11-12-2002
DOI: 10.1063/1.1521724
Abstract: The photolysis of NO2 and N2O4 has been studied at 248 nm by observations of time-resolved Fourier transform infrared emission from the photofragments. The photolysis of NO2 produces emission in the Δv=−1 and −2 fundamental and overtone bands of NO(X 2Π), and spectral analysis yields a broad Gaussian-type distribution in the vibrational levels v=2–8, in good agreement with one of two previously reported initial nascent quantum state distributions. Quenching of the higher levels (v=5–8) of NO in collisions with NO2 produces rate constants which increase with increasing v with values between 0.91 and 3.5×10−11 cm3 molecule−1 s−1. The process is shown to have a larger component of resonance energy transfer from NO(v) to NO2(0,0,1) than previously reported values for the rate constants at lower v which are further from resonance. A fast component of IR emission from the nascent excited states of NO2 is observed, together with slower decaying emissions near 1450 and 2750 cm−1, assigned as Δν3=−1 and Δν1=Δν3=−1 transitions from high vibrational levels of the ground state formed by quenching of electronically excited NO2 produced from the photolysis of N2O4. A comparison is made of these IR bands with similar features seen in the IR emission from NO2 following electronic excitation in the visible region below its dissociation limit. Further emission near 1880 cm−1 accompanies the photolysis of N2O4, and is tentatively assigned to the direct formation of NO as a photolysis product, with a non-negligible quantum yield in low vibrational levels.
Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 15-04-2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.14.031716
Abstract: Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of bio ersity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but bio ersity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future bio ersity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Development pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of bio ersity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.
Global Carbon Budget 2017
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 12-03-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the global carbon budget – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from 0.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).
Higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 04-02-2020
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.14950
Process contributions of Australian ecosystems to interannual variations in the carbon cycle
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 05-2016
Key knowledge and data gaps in modelling the influence of CO2 concentration on the terrestrial carbon sink
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2016
DOI: 10.1016/J.JPLPH.2016.05.001
Abstract: Primary productivity of terrestrial vegetation is expected to increase under the influence of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO
A time-resolved FTIR emission study of the gas phase removal processes of CH2(X̃3B1) and CH2(ã1A1) in collisions with O2
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2003
A stand-alone tree demography and landscape structure module for Earth system models: integration with inventory data from temperate and boreal forests
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 08-2014
Abstract: Abstract. Poorly constrained rates of biomass turnover are a key limitation of Earth system models (ESMs). In light of this, we recently proposed a new approach encoded in a model called Populations-Order-Physiology (POP), for the simulation of woody ecosystem stand dynamics, demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. POP is suitable for continental to global applications and designed for coupling to the terrestrial ecosystem component of any ESM. POP bridges the gap between first-generation dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) with simple large-area parameterisations of woody biomass (typically used in current ESMs) and complex second-generation DVMs that explicitly simulate demographic processes and landscape heterogeneity of forests. The key simplification in the POP approach, compared with second-generation DVMs, is to compute physiological processes such as assimilation at grid-scale (with CABLE (Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange) or a similar land surface model), but to partition the grid-scale biomass increment among age classes defined at sub-grid-scale, each subject to its own dynamics. POP was successfully demonstrated along a savanna transect in northern Australia, replicating the effects of strong rainfall and fire disturbance gradients on observed stand productivity and structure. Here, we extend the application of POP to wide-ranging temporal and boreal forests, employing paired observations of stem biomass and density from forest inventory data to calibrate model parameters governing stand demography and biomass evolution. The calibrated POP model is then coupled to the CABLE land surface model, and the combined model (CABLE-POP) is evaluated against leaf–stem allometry observations from forest stands ranging in age from 3 to 200 year. Results indicate that simulated biomass pools conform well with observed allometry. We conclude that POP represents an ecologically plausible and efficient alternative to large-area parameterisations of woody biomass turnover, typically used in current ESMs.
Time resolved FTIR emission measurements of the internal energies of NO formed in the O(1D) + N2O reaction, and energy transfer processes to N2O
Publisher: Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC)
Date: 2003
DOI: 10.1039/B300163F
Evaluation of two MCM v3.1 alkene mechanisms using indoor environmental chamber data
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2005
The Plumbing of Land Surface Models: Is Poor Performance a Result of Methodology or Data Quality?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 25-05-2016
Abstract: The Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface Models (PALS) Land Surface Model Benchmarking Evaluation Project (PLUMBER) illustrated the value of prescribing a priori performance targets in model intercomparisons. It showed that the performance of turbulent energy flux predictions from different land surface models, at a broad range of flux tower sites using common evaluation metrics, was on average worse than relatively simple empirical models. For sensible heat fluxes, all land surface models were outperformed by a linear regression against downward shortwave radiation. For latent heat flux, all land surface models were outperformed by a regression against downward shortwave radiation, surface air temperature, and relative humidity. These results are explored here in greater detail and possible causes are investigated. It is examined whether particular metrics or sites unduly influence the collated results, whether results change according to time-scale aggregation, and whether a lack of energy conservation in flux tower data gives the empirical models an unfair advantage in the intercomparison. It is demonstrated that energy conservation in the observational data is not responsible for these results. It is also shown that the partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes in LSMs, rather than the calculation of available energy, is the cause of the original findings. Finally, evidence is presented that suggests that the nature of this partitioning problem is likely shared among all contributing LSMs. While a single candidate explanation for why land surface models perform poorly relative to empirical benchmarks in PLUMBER could not be found, multiple possible explanations are excluded and guidance is provided on where future research should focus.
An introduction to the Australian and New Zealand flux tower network – OzFlux
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 31-10-2016
Abstract: Abstract. OzFlux is the regional Australian and New Zealand flux tower network that aims to provide a continental-scale national research facility to monitor and assess trends, and improve predictions, of Australia's terrestrial biosphere and climate. This paper describes the evolution, design, and current status of OzFlux as well as provides an overview of data processing. We analyse measurements from all sites within the Australian portion of the OzFlux network and two sites from New Zealand. The response of the Australian biomes to climate was largely consistent with global studies except that Australian systems had a lower ecosystem water-use efficiency. Australian semi-arid/arid ecosystems are important because of their huge extent (70 %) and they have evolved with common moisture limitations. We also found that Australian ecosystems had a similar radiation-use efficiency per unit leaf area compared to global values that indicates a convergence toward a similar biochemical efficiency. The two New Zealand sites represented extremes in productivity for a moist temperate climate zone, with the grazed dairy farm site having the highest GPP of any OzFlux site (2620 gC m−2 yr−1) and the natural raised peat bog site having a very low GPP (820 gC m−2 yr−1). The paper discusses the utility of the flux data and the synergies between flux, remote sensing, and modelling. Lastly, the paper looks ahead at the future direction of the network and concludes that there has been a substantial contribution by OzFlux, and considerable opportunities remain to further advance our understanding of ecosystem response to disturbances, including drought, fire, land-use and land-cover change, land management, and climate change, which are relevant both nationally and internationally. It is suggested that a synergistic approach is required to address all of the spatial, ecological, human, and cultural challenges of managing the delicately balanced ecosystems in Australasia.
Global Carbon Budget 2019
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 04-12-2019
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-11-1783-2019
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr−1, reaching 10 GtC yr−1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4±0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among in idual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at 0.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).
Evaluating the performance of land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN v1.0 on water and energy flux estimation with a single- and multi-layer energy budget scheme
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 02-09-2016
Abstract: Abstract. Canopy structure is one of the most important vegetation characteristics for land–atmosphere interactions, as it determines the energy and scalar exchanges between the land surface and the overlying air mass. In this study we evaluated the performance of a newly developed multi-layer energy budget in the ORCHIDEE-CAN v1.0 land surface model (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems – CANopy), which simulates canopy structure and can be coupled to an atmospheric model using an implicit coupling procedure. We aim to provide a set of acceptable parameter values for a range of forest types. Top-canopy and sub-canopy flux observations from eight sites were collected in order to conduct this evaluation. The sites crossed climate zones from temperate to boreal and the vegetation types included deciduous, evergreen broad-leaved and evergreen needle-leaved forest with a maximum leaf area index (LAI all-sided) ranging from 3.5 to 7.0. The parametrization approach proposed in this study was based on three selected physical processes – namely the diffusion, advection, and turbulent mixing within the canopy. Short-term sub-canopy observations and long-term surface fluxes were used to calibrate the parameters in the sub-canopy radiation, turbulence, and resistance modules with an automatic tuning process. The multi-layer model was found to capture the dynamics of sub-canopy turbulence, temperature, and energy fluxes. The performance of the new multi-layer model was further compared against the existing single-layer model. Although the multi-layer model simulation results showed few or no improvements to both the nighttime energy balance and energy partitioning during winter compared with a single-layer model simulation, the increased model complexity does provide a more detailed description of the canopy micrometeorology of various forest types. The multi-layer model links to potential future environmental and ecological studies such as the assessment of in-canopy species vulnerability to climate change, the climate effects of disturbance intensities and frequencies, and the consequences of biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from the terrestrial ecosystem.
State of the science in reconciling top-down and bottom-up approaches for terrestrial CO
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-12-2020
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.14917
Abstract: Robust estimates of CO
A new version of the CABLE land surface model (Subversion revision r4546), incorporating land use and land cover change, woody vegetation demography and a novel optimisation-based approach to plant coordination of photosynthesis.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 27-07-2018
Abstract: Abstract. The Community Atmosphere–Biosphere Land Exchange model (CABLE) is a land surface model (LSM) that can be applied stand-alone and provides the land surface–atmosphere exchange within the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS). We describe new developments that extend the applicability of CABLE for regional and global carbon–climate simulations, accounting for vegetation responses to biophysical and anthropogenic forcings. A land use and land cover change module driven by gross land use transitions and wood harvest area was implemented, tailored to the needs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). Novel aspects include the treatment of secondary woody vegetation, which benefits from a tight coupling between the land use module and the Population Orders Physiology (POP) module for woody demography and disturbance-mediated landscape heterogeneity. Land use transitions and harvest associated with secondary forest tiles modify the annually resolved patch age distribution within secondary vegetated tiles, in turn affecting biomass accumulation and turnover rates and hence the magnitude of the secondary forest sink. Additionally, we implemented a novel approach to constrain modelled GPP consistent with the coordination hypothesis and predicted by evolutionary theory, which suggests that electron-transport- and Rubisco-limited rates adjust seasonally and across biomes to be co-limiting. We show that the default prior assumption – common to CABLE and other LSMs – of a fixed ratio of electron transport to carboxylation capacity at standard temperature (Jmax, 0∕Vcmax, 0) is at odds with this hypothesis we implement an alternative algorithm for dynamic optimisation of this ratio such that coordination is achieved as an outcome of fitness maximisation. The results have significant implications for the magnitude of the simulated CO2 fertilisation effect on photosynthesis in comparison to alternative estimates and observational proxies. These new developments enhance CABLE's capability for use within an Earth system model and in stand-alone applications to attribute trends and variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle to regions, processes and drivers. Model evaluation shows that the new model version satisfies several key observational constraints: (i) trend and interannual variations in the global land carbon sink, including sensitivities of interannual variations to global precipitation and temperature anomalies (ii) centennial trends in global GPP (iii) coordination of Rubisco-limited and electron-transport-limited photosynthesis (iv) spatial distributions of global ET, GPP, biomass and soil carbon and (v) age-dependent rates of biomass accumulation in boreal, temperate and tropical secondary forests. CABLE simulations agree with recent independent assessments of the global land–atmosphere flux partition that use a combination of atmospheric inversions and bottom-up constraints. In particular, there is agreement that the strong CO2-driven sink in the tropics is largely cancelled by net deforestation and forest degradation emissions, leaving the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics as the dominant contributor to the net land sink.
Primary and secondary effects of climate variability on net ecosystem carbon exchange in an evergreen Eucalyptus forest
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2013
Corrigendum to "The Australian Terrestrial Carbon Budget" published in Biogeosciences, 10, 851–869, 2013
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 10-06-2015
The Australian terrestrial carbon budget
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-02-2013
Abstract: Abstract. This paper reports a study of the full carbon (C-CO2) budget of the Australian continent, focussing on 1990–2011 in the context of estimates over two centuries. The work is a contribution to the RECCAP (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) project, as one of numerous regional studies. In constructing the budget, we estimate the following component carbon fluxes: net primary production (NPP) net ecosystem production (NEP) fire land use change (LUC) riverine export dust export harvest (wood, crop and livestock) and fossil fuel emissions (both territorial and non-territorial). Major biospheric fluxes were derived using BIOS2 (Haverd et al., 2012), a fine-spatial-resolution (0.05°) offline modelling environment in which predictions of CABLE (Wang et al., 2011), a sophisticated land surface model with carbon cycle, are constrained by multiple observation types. The mean NEP reveals that climate variability and rising CO2 contributed 12 & m 24 (1σ error on mean) and 68 & m 15 TgC yr−1, respectively. However these gains were partially offset by fire and LUC (along with other minor fluxes), which caused net losses of 26 & m 4 TgC yr−1 and 18 & m 7 TgC yr−1, respectively. The resultant net biome production (NBP) is 36 & m 29 TgC yr−1, in which the largest contributions to uncertainty are NEP, fire and LUC. This NBP offset fossil fuel emissions (95 & m 6 TgC yr−1) by 38 & m 30%. The interannual variability (IAV) in the Australian carbon budget exceeds Australia's total carbon emissions by fossil fuel combustion and is dominated by IAV in NEP. Territorial fossil fuel emissions are significantly smaller than the rapidly growing fossil fuel exports: in 2009–2010, Australia exported 2.5 times more carbon in fossil fuels than it emitted by burning fossil fuels.
The Plumbing of Land Surface Models: Benchmarking Model Performance
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 27-05-2015
Abstract: The Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface Models (PALS) Land Surface Model Benchmarking Evaluation Project (PLUMBER) was designed to be a land surface model (LSM) benchmarking intercomparison. Unlike the traditional methods of LSM evaluation or comparison, benchmarking uses a fundamentally different approach in that it sets expectations of performance in a range of metrics a priori—before model simulations are performed. This can lead to very different conclusions about LSM performance. For this study, both simple physically based models and empirical relationships were used as the benchmarks. Simulations were performed with 13 LSMs using atmospheric forcing for 20 sites, and then model performance relative to these benchmarks was examined. Results show that even for commonly used statistical metrics, the LSMs’ performance varies considerably when compared to the different benchmarks. All models outperform the simple physically based benchmarks, but for sensible heat flux the LSMs are themselves outperformed by an out-of-s le linear regression against downward shortwave radiation. While moisture information is clearly central to latent heat flux prediction, the LSMs are still outperformed by a three-variable nonlinear regression that uses instantaneous atmospheric humidity and temperature in addition to downward shortwave radiation. These results highlight the limitations of the prevailing paradigm of LSM evaluation that simply compares an LSM to observations and to other LSMs without a mechanism to objectively quantify the expectations of performance. The authors conclude that their results challenge the conceptual view of energy partitioning at the land surface.
Estimating ecosystem maximum light use efficiency based on the water use efficiency principle
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 10-2021
The Canopy Semi-analytic Pgap And Radiative Transfer (CanSPART) model: Validation using ground based lidar
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2012
Infrared emission accompanying the gas phase recombination of alkyl radicalsElectronic supplementary information (ESI) available: Appendix: Model for emission from the C2H6 recombination product of CH
Publisher: Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC)
Date: 2003
DOI: 10.1039/B303780K
Comparison of forest above‐ground biomass from dynamic global vegetation models with spatially explicit remotely sensed observation‐based estimates
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 19-05-2020
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.15117
Fire in Australian savannas: from leaf to landscape
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 09-09-2014
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.12686
Abstract: Savanna ecosystems comprise 22% of the global terrestrial surface and 25% of Australia (almost 1.9 million km 2 ) and provide significant ecosystem services through carbon and water cycles and the maintenance of bio ersity. The current structure, composition and distribution of Australian savannas have coevolved with fire, yet remain driven by the dynamic constraints of their bioclimatic niche. Fire in Australian savannas influences both the biophysical and biogeochemical processes at multiple scales from leaf to landscape. Here, we present the latest emission estimates from Australian savanna biomass burning and their contribution to global greenhouse gas budgets. We then review our understanding of the impacts of fire on ecosystem function and local surface water and heat balances, which in turn influence regional climate. We show how savanna fires are coupled to the global climate through the carbon cycle and fire regimes. We present new research that climate change is likely to alter the structure and function of savannas through shifts in moisture availability and increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in turn altering fire regimes with further feedbacks to climate. We explore opportunities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from savanna ecosystems through changes in savanna fire management.
Carbon cycle responses of semi-arid ecosystems to positive asymmetry in rainfall
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 30-09-2017
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.13412
Abstract: Recent evidence shows that warm semi-arid ecosystems are playing a disproportionate role in the interannual variability and greening trend of the global carbon cycle given their mean lower productivity when compared with other biomes (Ahlström et al. 2015 Science, 348, 895). Using multiple observations (land-atmosphere fluxes, biomass, streamflow and remotely sensed vegetation cover) and two state-of-the-art biospheric models, we show that climate variability and extremes lead to positive or negative responses in the biosphere, depending on vegetation type. We find Australia to be a global hot spot for variability, with semi-arid ecosystems in that country exhibiting increased carbon uptake due to both asymmetry in the interannual distribution of rainfall (extrinsic forcing), and asymmetry in the response of gross primary production (GPP) to rainfall change (intrinsic response). The latter is attributable to the pulse-response behaviour of the drought-adapted biota of these systems, a response that is estimated to be as much as half of that from the CO
Erratum to: An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-10-2016
A multi-layer land surface energy budget model for implicit coupling with global atmospheric simulations
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 25-01-2016
Abstract: Abstract. In Earth system modelling, a description of the energy budget of the vegetated surface layer is fundamental as it determines the meteorological conditions in the planetary boundary layer and as such contributes to the atmospheric conditions and its circulation. The energy budget in most Earth system models has been based on a big-leaf approach, with averaging schemes that represent in-canopy processes. Furthermore, to be stable, that is to say, over large time steps and without large iterations, a surface layer model should be capable of implicit coupling to the atmospheric model. Surface models with large time steps, however, have difficulties in reproducing consistently the energy balance in field observations. Here we outline a newly developed numerical model for energy budget simulation, as a component of the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems – CANopy). This new model implements techniques from single-site canopy models in a practical way. It includes representation of in-canopy transport, a multi-layer long-wave radiation budget, height-specific calculation of aerodynamic and stomatal conductance, and interaction with the bare-soil flux within the canopy space. Significantly, it avoids iterations over the height of the canopy and so maintains implicit coupling to the atmospheric model LMDz (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Zoomed model). As a first test, the model is evaluated against data from both an intensive measurement c aign and longer-term eddy-covariance measurements for the intensively studied Eucalyptus stand at Tumbarumba, Australia. The model performs well in replicating both diurnal and annual cycles of energy and water fluxes, as well as the vertical gradients of temperature and of sensible heat fluxes.
Widespread seasonal compensation effects of spring warming on northern plant productivity
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-10-2018
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-018-0555-7
Abstract: Climate change is shifting the phenological cycles of plants
Soil–Litter–Iso: A one-dimensional model for coupled transport of heat, water and stable isotopes in soil with a litter layer and root extraction
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2010
The fourth phase of the radiative transfer model intercomparison (RAMI) exercise: Actual canopy scenarios and conformity testing
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2015
Interannual variability in Australia's terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by multiple observation types
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 29-11-2016
Abstract: Abstract. Recent studies have shown that semi-arid ecosystems in Australia may be responsible for a significant part of the interannual variability in the global concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here we use a multiple constraints approach to calibrate a land surface model of Australian terrestrial carbon and water cycles, with a focus on interannual variability. We use observations of carbon and water fluxes at 14 OzFlux sites, as well as data on carbon pools, litterfall and streamflow. We include calibration of the function describing the response of heterotrophic respiration to soil moisture. We also explore the effect on modelled interannual variability of parameter equifinality, whereby multiple combinations of parameters can give an equally acceptable fit to the calibration data. We estimate interannual variability of Australian net ecosystem production (NEP) of 0.12–0.21 PgC yr−1 (1σ) over 1982–2013, with a high anomaly of 0.43–0.67 PgC yr−1 in 2011 relative to this period associated with exceptionally wet conditions following a prolonged drought. The ranges are due to the effect on calculated NEP anomaly of parameter equifinality, with similar contributions from equifinality in parameters associated with net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration. Our range of results due to parameter equifinality demonstrates how errors can be underestimated when a single parameter set is used.
An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-09-2016
Air and biomass heat storage fluxes in a forest canopy: Calculation within a soil vegetation atmosphere transfer model
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2007
An analysis of the surface energy budget above the world's tallest angiosperm forest
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2012
Cation Selectivity at Air/Anionic Surfactant Solution Interfaces
Publisher: American Chemical Society (ACS)
Date: 17-11-1999
DOI: 10.1021/LA990695L
Impact of Land Surface Initialization Approach on Subseasonal Forecast Skill: A Regional Analysis in the Southern Hemisphere
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-2014
Abstract: The authors use a sophisticated coupled land–atmosphere modeling system for a Southern Hemisphere subdomain centered over southeastern Australia to evaluate differences in simulation skill from two different land surface initialization approaches. The first approach uses equilibrated land surface states obtained from offline simulations of the land surface model, and the second uses land surface states obtained from reanalyses. The authors find that land surface initialization using prior offline simulations contribute to relative gains in subseasonal forecast skill. In particular, relative gains in forecast skill for temperature of 10%–20% within the first 30 days of the forecast can be attributed to the land surface initialization method using offline states. For precipitation there is no distinct preference for the land surface initialization method, with limited gains in forecast skill irrespective of the lead time. The authors evaluated the asymmetry between maximum and minimum temperatures and found that maximum temperatures had the largest gains in relative forecast skill, exceeding 20% in some regions. These results were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level at up to 60 days into the forecast period. For minimum temperature, using reanalyses to initialize the land surface contributed to relative gains in forecast skill, reaching 40% in parts of the domain that were statistically significant at the 98% confidence level. The contrasting impact of the land surface initialization method between maximum and minimum temperature was associated with different soil moisture coupling mechanisms. Therefore, land surface initialization from prior offline simulations does improve predictability for temperature, particularly maximum temperature, but with less obvious improvements for precipitation and minimum temperature over southeastern Australia.
Drought can offset potential water use efficiency of forest ecosystems from rising atmospheric CO2
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2020
Measured deuterium in water vapour concentration does not improve the constraint on the partitioning of evapotranspiration in a tall forest canopy, as estimated using a soil vegetation atmosphere tran
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2011
Sensitivities of the Australian terrestrial water and carbon balances to climate change and variability
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2013
Measurements of trace gas emissions from Australian forest fires and correlations with coincident measurements of aerosol optical depth
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 23-12-2005
DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006202
Dryland vegetation response to wet episode, not inherent shift in sensitivity to rainfall, behind Australia’s role in 2011 global carbon sink anomaly
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 09-02-2016
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.13202
A model inter-comparison study to examine limiting factors in modelling Australian tropical savannas
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 03-06-2016
Abstract: Abstract. The savanna ecosystem is one of the most dominant and complex terrestrial biomes, deriving from a distinct vegetative surface comprised of co-dominant tree and grass populations. While these two vegetation types co-exist functionally, demographically they are not static but are dynamically changing in response to environmental forces such as annual fire events and rainfall variability. Modelling savanna environments with the current generation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) has presented many problems, particularly describing fire frequency and intensity, phenology, leaf biochemistry of C3 and C4 photosynthesis vegetation, and root-water uptake. In order to better understand why TBMs perform so poorly in savannas, we conducted a model inter-comparison of six TBMs and assessed their performance at simulating latent energy (LE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) for five savanna sites along a rainfall gradient in northern Australia. Performance in predicting LE and GPP was measured using an empirical benchmarking system, which ranks models by their ability to utilise meteorological driving information to predict the fluxes. On average, the TBMs performed as well as a multi-linear regression of the fluxes against solar radiation, temperature and vapour pressure deficit but were outperformed by a more complicated nonlinear response model that also included the leaf area index (LAI). This identified that the TBMs are not fully utilising their input information effectively in determining savanna LE and GPP and highlights that savanna dynamics cannot be calibrated into models and that there are problems in underlying model processes. We identified key weaknesses in a model's ability to simulate savanna fluxes and their seasonal variation, related to the representation of vegetation by the models and root-water uptake. We underline these weaknesses in terms of three critical areas for development. First, prescribed tree-rooting depths must be deep enough, enabling the extraction of deep soil-water stores to maintain photosynthesis and transpiration during the dry season. Second, models must treat grasses as a co-dominant interface for water and carbon exchange rather than a secondary one to trees. Third, models need a dynamic representation of LAI that encompasses the dynamic phenology of savanna vegetation and its response to rainfall interannual variability. We believe that this study is the first to assess how well TBMs simulate savanna ecosystems and that these results will be used to improve the representation of savannas ecosystems in future global climate model studies.
A data - Model fusion methodology for mapping bushfire fuels for smoke emissions forecasting in forested landscapes of south-eastern Australia
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2018
DOI: 10.1016/J.JENVMAN.2018.05.060
Abstract: The increasing regional and global impact of wildfires on the environment, and particularly on the human population, is becoming a focus of the research community. Both fire behaviour and smoke dispersion models are now underpinning strategic and tactical fire management by many government agencies and therefore model accuracy at regional and local scales is increasingly important. This demands accuracy of all the components of the model systems, biomass fuel loads being among the more significant. Validation of spatial fuels maps at a regional scale is uncommon in part due to the limited availability of independent observations of fuel loads, and in part due to a focus on the impact of model outputs. In this study we evaluate two approaches for estimating fuel loads at a regional scale and test their accuracy against an extensive set of field observations for the State of Victoria, Australia. The first approach, which assumes that fuel accumulation is an attribute of the vegetation class, was developed for the fire behaviour model Phoenix Rapid-Fire, with apparent success the second approach applies the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) process-based terrestrial biosphere model, implemented at high resolution across the Australian continent. We show that while neither model is accurate over the full range of fine and coarse fuel loads, CABLE biases can be corrected for the full regional domain with a single linear correction, however the classification based Phoenix requires a matrix of factors to correct its bias. We conclude that these ex les illustrate that the benefits of simplicity and resolution inherent in classification-based models do not compensate for their lack of accuracy, and that lower resolution but inherently more accurate carbon-cycle models may be preferable for estimating fuel loads for input into smoke dispersion models.
Multiple observation types reduce uncertainty in Australia's terrestrial carbon and water cycles
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 25-03-2013
Abstract: Abstract. Information about the carbon cycle potentially constrains the water cycle, and vice versa. This paper explores the utility of multiple observation sets to constrain a land surface model of Australian terrestrial carbon and water cycles, and the resulting mean carbon pools and fluxes, as well as their temporal and spatial variability. Observations include streamflow from 416 gauged catchments, measurements of evapotranspiration (ET) and net ecosystem production (NEP) from 12 eddy-flux sites, litterfall data, and data on carbon pools. By projecting residuals between observations and corresponding predictions onto uncertainty in model predictions at the continental scale, we find that eddy flux measurements provide a significantly tighter constraint on continental net primary production (NPP) than the other data types. Nonetheless, simultaneous constraint by multiple data types is important for mitigating bias from any single type. Four significant results emerging from the multiply-constrained model are that, for the 1990–2011 period: (i) on the Australian continent, a predominantly semi-arid region, over half the water loss through ET (0.64 ± 0.05) occurs through soil evaporation and bypasses plants entirely (ii) mean Australian NPP is quantified at 2.2 ± 0.4 (1σ) Pg C yr−1 (iii) annually cyclic ("grassy") vegetation and persistent ("woody") vegetation account for 0.67 ± 0.14 and 0.33 ± 0.14, respectively, of NPP across Australia (iv) the average interannual variability of Australia's NEP (±0.18 Pg C yr−1, 1σ) is larger than Australia's total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2011 (0.149 Pg C equivalent yr–1), and is dominated by variability in desert and savanna regions.
Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018EF001123
Forest production efficiency increases with growth temperature
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 17-04-2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.15.042275
Abstract: We present a global analysis of the relationship of forest production efficiency (FPE) to stand age and climate, based on a large compilation of data on gross primary production and either biomass production or net primary production. FPE is important for both forest production and atmospheric carbon dioxide uptake. Earlier findings – FPE declining with age – are supported by this analysis. However, FPE also increases with absolute latitude, precipitation and (all else equal) with temperature. The temperature effect is opposite to what would be expected based on the short-term physiological response of respiration rates to temperature. It implies top-down regulation of forest carbon loss, perhaps reflecting the higher carbon costs of nutrient acquisition in colder climates. Current ecosystem models do not reproduce this phenomenon. They consistently predict lower FPE in warmer climates, and are therefore likely to overestimate carbon losses in a warming climate.
The Turbulent Lagrangian Time Scale in Forest Canopies Constrained by Fluxes, Concentrations and Source Distributions
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-01-2009
Mesophyll conductance in land surface models: effects on photosynthesis and transpiration
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 10-12-2019
DOI: 10.1111/TPJ.14587
Abstract: The CO
Global Carbon Budget 2016
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 14-11-2016
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), EFF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr−1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2 % (range of −1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016).
A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-11-2018
Abstract: Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Bio ersity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of bio ersity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on bio ersity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected bio ersity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the bio ersity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.
Contrasting effects of CO<sub>2</sub> fertilization, land-use change and warming on seasonal amplitude of Northern Hemisphere CO<sub>2</sub> exc
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-10-2019
DOI: 10.5194/ACP-19-12361-2019
Abstract: Abstract. Continuous atmospheric CO2 monitoring data indicate an increase in the litude of seasonal CO2-cycle exchange (SCANBP) in northern high latitudes. The major drivers of enhanced SCANBP remain unclear and intensely debated, with land-use change, CO2 fertilization and warming being identified as likely contributors. We integrated CO2-flux data from two atmospheric inversions (consistent with atmospheric records) and from 11 state-of-the-art land-surface models (LSMs) to evaluate the relative importance of in idual contributors to trends and drivers of the SCANBP of CO2 fluxes for 1980–2015. The LSMs generally reproduce the latitudinal increase in SCANBP trends within the inversions range. Inversions and LSMs attribute SCANBP increase to boreal Asia and Europe due to enhanced vegetation productivity (in LSMs) and point to contrasting effects of CO2 fertilization (positive) and warming (negative) on SCANBP. Our results do not support land-use change as a key contributor to the increase in SCANBP. The sensitivity of simulated microbial respiration to temperature in LSMs explained biases in SCANBP trends, which suggests that SCANBP could help to constrain model turnover times.
Physically Accurate Soil Freeze‐Thaw Processes in a Global Land Surface Scheme
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 2018
DOI: 10.1002/2017MS001100
A stand-alone tree demography and landscape structure module for Earth system models
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 08-10-2013
DOI: 10.1002/GRL.50972
Recent global decline of CO 2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 11-12-2020
Abstract: One source of uncertainty in climate science is how the carbon fertilization effect (CFE) will contribute to mitigation of anthropogenic climate change. Wang et al. explored the temporal dynamics of CFE on vegetation photosynthesis at the global scale. There has been a decline over recent decades in the contribution of CFE to vegetation photosynthesis, perhaps owing to the limiting effects of plant nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus. This declining trend has not been adequately accounted for in carbon cycle models. CFE thus has limitations for long-term mitigation of climate change, and future warming might currently be underestimated. Science , this issue p. 1295
Impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial carbon cycle constrained by bottom-up and top-down approaches
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 08-10-2018
Abstract: Evaluating the response of the land carbon sink to the anomalies in temperature and drought imposed by El Niño events provides insights into the present-day carbon cycle and its climate-driven variability. It is also a necessary step to build confidence in terrestrial ecosystems models' response to the warming and drying stresses expected in the future over many continents, and particularly in the tropics. Here we present an in-depth analysis of the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the 2015/2016 El Niño that imposed extreme warming and dry conditions in the tropics and other sensitive regions. First, we provide a synthesis of the spatio-temporal evolution of anomalies in net land–atmosphere CO 2 fluxes estimated by two in situ measurements based on atmospheric inversions and 16 land-surface models (LSMs) from TRENDYv6. Simulated changes in ecosystem productivity, decomposition rates and fire emissions are also investigated. Inversions and LSMs generally agree on the decrease and subsequent recovery of the land sink in response to the onset, peak and demise of El Niño conditions and point to the decreased strength of the land carbon sink: by 0.4–0.7 PgC yr −1 (inversions) and by 1.0 PgC yr −1 (LSMs) during 2015/2016. LSM simulations indicate that a decrease in productivity, rather than increase in respiration, dominated the net biome productivity anomalies in response to ENSO throughout the tropics, mainly associated with prolonged drought conditions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.
Absolute Calibration of the Intramolecular Site Preference of 15N Fractionation in Tropospheric N2O by FT-IR Spectroscopy
Publisher: American Chemical Society (ACS)
Date: 20-02-2009
DOI: 10.1021/AC802371C
Abstract: Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) plays important roles in atmospheric chemistry both as a greenhouse gas and in stratospheric ozone depletion. Isotopic measurements of N(2)O have provided an invaluable insight into understanding its atmospheric sources and sinks. The preference for (15)N fractionation between the central and terminal positions (the "site preference") is particularly valuable because it depends principally on the processes involved in N(2)O production or consumption, rather than the (15)N content of the substrate from which it is formed. Despite the value of measurements of the site preference, there is no internationally recognized standard reference material of accurately known and accepted site preference, and there has been some lack of agreement in published studies aimed at providing such a standard. Previous work has been based on isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) in this work we provide an absolute calibration for the intramolecular site preference of (15)N fractionation of working standard gases used in our laboratory by a completely independent technique--high-resolution Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy. By reference to this absolute calibration, we determine the site preference for 25 s les of tropospheric N(2)O collected under clean air conditions to be 19.8 per thousand +/- 2.1 per thousand. This result is in agreement with that based on the earlier absolute calibration of Toyoda and Yoshida (Toyoda , S. , and Yoshida , N. Anal. Chem. 1999 , 71, 4711-4718 ) who found an average tropospheric site preference of 18.7 per thousand +/- 2.2 per thousand. We now recommend an interlaboratory exchange of working standard N(2)O gases as the next step to providing an international reference standard.
Evaluating land-atmosphere coupling using a resistance pathway framework
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-2016
Abstract: This paper presents a methodology for examining land–atmosphere coupling in a regional climate model by examining how the resistances to moisture transfer from the land to the atmosphere control the surface turbulent energy fluxes. Perturbations were applied in idually to the aerodynamic resistance from the soil surface to the displacement height, the aerodynamic resistance from the displacement height to the reference level, the stomatal resistance, and the leaf boundary layer resistance. Only perturbations to the aerodynamic resistance from the soil surface to the displacement height systematically affected 2-m air temperature for the shrub and evergreen boreal forest plant functional types (PFTs). This was associated with this resistance systematically increasing the terrestrial and atmospheric components of the land–atmosphere coupling strength through changes in the partitioning of the surface energy balance. Perturbing the other resistances did contribute to changing the partitioning of the surface energy balance but did not lead to systematic changes in the 2-m air temperature. The results suggest that land–atmosphere coupling in the modeling system presented here acts mostly through the aerodynamic resistance from the soil surface to the displacement height, which is a function of both the friction velocity and vegetation height and cover. The results show that a resistance pathway framework can be used to examine how changes in the resistances affect the partitioning of the surface energy balance and how this subsequently influences surface climate through land–atmosphere coupling. Limitations in the present analysis include grid-scale rather than PFT-scale analysis, the exclusion of resistance dependencies, and the linearity assumption of how temperature responds to a resistance perturbation.
Comparison of remotely sensed and modelled soil moisture data sets across Australia
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2016
Summertime maximum and minimum temperature coupling asymmetry over Australia determined using WRF
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-03-2014
DOI: 10.1002/2013GL059055
The sensitivity of isoprene emissions to drought over south-eastern Australia: integrating models and satellite observations of soil moisture
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2019
Negative extreme events in gross primary productivity and their drivers in China during the past three decades
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2019
Amazon forest response to CO2 fertilization dependent on plant phosphorus acquisition
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-08-2019
Robust Response of Terrestrial Plants to Rising CO2
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2019
DOI: 10.1016/J.TPLANTS.2019.04.003
Abstract: Human-caused CO
A vertically discretised canopy description for ORCHIDEE (SVN r2290) and the modifications to the energy, water and carbon fluxes
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-07-2015
Abstract: Abstract. Since 70 % of global forests are managed and forests impact the global carbon cycle and the energy exchange with the overlying atmosphere, forest management has the potential to mitigate climate change. Yet, none of the land-surface models used in Earth system models, and therefore none of today's predictions of future climate, accounts for the interactions between climate and forest management. We addressed this gap in modelling capability by developing and parametrising a version of the ORCHIDEE land-surface model to simulate the biogeochemical and biophysical effects of forest management. The most significant changes between the new branch called ORCHIDEE-CAN (SVN r2290) and the trunk version of ORCHIDEE (SVN r2243) are the allometric-based allocation of carbon to leaf, root, wood, fruit and reserve pools the transmittance, absorbance and reflectance of radiation within the canopy and the vertical discretisation of the energy budget calculations. In addition, conceptual changes were introduced towards a better process representation for the interaction of radiation with snow, the hydraulic architecture of plants, the representation of forest management and a numerical solution for the photosynthesis formalism of Farquhar, von Caemmerer and Berry. For consistency reasons, these changes were extensively linked throughout the code. Parametrisation was revisited after introducing 12 new parameter sets that represent specific tree species or genera rather than a group of often distantly related or even unrelated species, as is the case in widely used plant functional types. Performance of the new model was compared against the trunk and validated against independent spatially explicit data for basal area, tree height, canopy structure, gross primary production (GPP), albedo and evapotranspiration over Europe. For all tested variables, ORCHIDEE-CAN outperformed the trunk regarding its ability to reproduce large-scale spatial patterns as well as their inter-annual variability over Europe. Depending on the data stream, ORCHIDEE-CAN had a 67 to 92 % chance to reproduce the spatial and temporal variability of the validation data.
Land surface models systematically overestimate the intensity, duration and magnitude of seasonal-scale evaporative droughts
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 10-2016
Coupling carbon allocation with leaf and root phenology predicts tree–grass partitioning along a savanna rainfall gradient
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 11-02-2016
Abstract: Abstract. The relative complexity of the mechanisms underlying savanna ecosystem dynamics, in comparison to other biomes such as temperate and tropical forests, challenges the representation of such dynamics in ecosystem and Earth system models. A realistic representation of processes governing carbon allocation and phenology for the two defining elements of savanna vegetation (namely trees and grasses) may be a key to understanding variations in tree–grass partitioning in time and space across the savanna biome worldwide. Here we present a new approach for modelling coupled phenology and carbon allocation, applied to competing tree and grass plant functional types. The approach accounts for a temporal shift between assimilation and growth, mediated by a labile carbohydrate store. This is combined with a method to maximize long-term net primary production (NPP) by optimally partitioning plant growth between fine roots and (leaves + stem). The computational efficiency of the analytic method used here allows it to be uniquely and readily applied at regional scale, as required, for ex le, within the framework of a global biogeochemical model.We demonstrate the approach by encoding it in a new simple carbon–water cycle model that we call HAVANA (Hydrology and Vegetation-dynamics Algorithm for Northern Australia), coupled to the existing POP (Population Orders Physiology) model for tree demography and disturbance-mediated heterogeneity. HAVANA-POP is calibrated using monthly remotely sensed fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) and eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon and water fluxes at five tower sites along the North Australian Tropical Transect (NATT), which is characterized by large gradients in rainfall and wildfire disturbance. The calibrated model replicates observed gradients of fPAR, tree leaf area index, basal area, and foliage projective cover along the NATT. The model behaviour emerges from complex feedbacks between the plant physiology and vegetation dynamics, mediated by shifting above- versus below-ground resources, and not from imposed hypotheses about the controls on tree–grass co-existence. Results support the hypothesis that resource limitation is a stronger determinant of tree cover than disturbance in Australian savannas.
Challenges and opportunities in land surface modelling of savanna ecosystems
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 24-10-2017
Abstract: Abstract. The savanna complex is a highly erse global biome that occurs within the seasonally dry tropical to sub-tropical equatorial latitudes and are structurally and functionally distinct from grasslands and forests. Savannas are open-canopy environments that encompass a broad demographic continuum, often characterised by a changing dominance between C3-tree and C4-grass vegetation, where frequent environmental disturbances such as fire modulates the balance between ephemeral and perennial life forms. Climate change is projected to result in significant changes to the savanna floristic structure, with increases to woody biomass expected through CO2 fertilisation in mesic savannas and increased tree mortality expected through increased rainfall interannual variability in xeric savannas. The complex interaction between vegetation and climate that occurs in savannas has traditionally challenged terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), which aim to simulate the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface to predict responses of vegetation to changing in environmental forcing. In this review, we examine whether TBMs are able to adequately represent savanna fluxes and what implications potential deficiencies may have for climate change projection scenarios that rely on these models. We start by highlighting the defining characteristic traits and behaviours of savannas, how these differ across continents and how this information is (or is not) represented in the structural framework of many TBMs. We highlight three dynamic processes that we believe directly affect the water use and productivity of the savanna system: phenology, root-water access and fire dynamics. Following this, we discuss how these processes are represented in many current-generation TBMs and whether they are suitable for simulating savanna fluxes.Finally, we give an overview of how eddy-covariance observations in combination with other data sources can be used in model benchmarking and intercomparison frameworks to diagnose the performance of TBMs in this environment and formulate road maps for future development. Our investigation reveals that many TBMs systematically misrepresent phenology, the effects of fire and root-water access (if they are considered at all) and that these should be critical areas for future development. Furthermore, such processes must not be static (i.e. prescribed behaviour) but be capable of responding to the changing environmental conditions in order to emulate the dynamic behaviour of savannas. Without such developments, however, TBMs will have limited predictive capability in making the critical projections needed to understand how savannas will respond to future global change.
The Effect of Source Distribution on Bulk Scalar Transfer between a Rough Land Surface and the Atmosphere
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-04-2010
Evaluation of six satellite-derived Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetic Active Radiation (FAPAR) products across the Australian continent
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2014
Evidence for altitude‐dependent photolysis‐induced 18O isotopic fractionation in stratospheric ozone
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-2005
DOI: 10.1029/2005GL024049
Global Carbon Budget 2018
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 05-12-2018
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-10-2141-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among in idual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from 0.18160/GCP-2018.
Enhanced regional terrestrial carbon uptake over Korea revealed by atmospheric CO2 measurements from 1999 to 2017
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 13-04-2020
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.15061
Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO2
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-10-2020
DOI: 10.1111/NPH.16866
Abstract: Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]) is increasing, which increases leaf‐scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water‐use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO 2 ] increase and thus climate change. However, ecosystem CO 2 responses are complex or confounded by concurrent changes in multiple agents of global change and evidence for a [CO 2 ]‐driven terrestrial carbon sink can appear contradictory. Here we synthesize theory and broad, multidisciplinary evidence for the effects of increasing [CO 2 ] (iCO 2 ) on the global terrestrial carbon sink. Evidence suggests a substantial increase in global photosynthesis since pre‐industrial times. Established theory, supported by experiments, indicates that iCO 2 is likely responsible for about half of the increase. Global carbon budgeting, atmospheric data, and forest inventories indicate a historical carbon sink, and these apparent iCO 2 responses are high in comparison to experiments and predictions from theory. Plant mortality and soil carbon iCO 2 responses are highly uncertain. In conclusion, a range of evidence supports a positive terrestrial carbon sink in response to iCO 2 , albeit with uncertain magnitude and strong suggestion of a role for additional agents of global change.
Improved representations of coupled soil–canopy processes in the CABLE land surface model (Subversion revision 3432)
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-09-2016
Abstract: Abstract. CABLE is a global land surface model, which has been used extensively in offline and coupled simulations. While CABLE performs well in comparison with other land surface models, results are impacted by decoupling of transpiration and photosynthesis fluxes under drying soil conditions, often leading to implausibly high water use efficiencies. Here, we present a solution to this problem, ensuring that modelled transpiration is always consistent with modelled photosynthesis, while introducing a parsimonious single-parameter drought response function which is coupled to root water uptake. We further improve CABLE's simulation of coupled soil–canopy processes by introducing an alternative hydrology model with a physically accurate representation of coupled energy and water fluxes at the soil–air interface, including a more realistic formulation of transfer under atmospherically stable conditions within the canopy and in the presence of leaf litter. The effects of these model developments are assessed using data from 18 stations from the global eddy covariance FLUXNET database, selected to span a large climatic range. Marked improvements are demonstrated, with root mean squared errors for monthly latent heat fluxes and water use efficiencies being reduced by 40 %. Results highlight the important roles of deep soil moisture in mediating drought response and litter in d ening soil evaporation.
Carbon uptake and water use in woodlands and forests in southern Australia during an extreme heat wave event in the angry Summer of 2012/2013
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 11-2016
Abstract: Abstract. As a result of climate change warmer temperatures are projected through the 21st century and are already increasing above modelled predictions. Apart from increases in the mean, warm/hot temperature extremes are expected to become more prevalent in the future, along with an increase in the frequency of droughts. It is crucial to better understand the response of terrestrial ecosystems to such temperature extremes for predicting land-surface feedbacks in a changing climate. While land-surface feedbacks in drought conditions and during heat waves have been reported from Europe and the US, direct observations of the impact of such extremes on the carbon and water cycles in Australia have been lacking. During the 2012/2013 summer, Australia experienced a record-breaking heat wave with an exceptional spatial extent that lasted for several weeks. In this study we synthesised eddy-covariance measurements from seven woodlands and one forest site across three biogeographic regions in southern Australia. These observations were combined with model results from BIOS2 (Haverd et al., 2013a, b) to investigate the effect of the summer heat wave on the carbon and water exchange of terrestrial ecosystems which are known for their resilience toward hot and dry conditions. We found that water-limited woodland and energy-limited forest ecosystems responded differently to the heat wave. During the most intense part of the heat wave, the woodlands experienced decreased latent heat flux (23 % of background value), increased Bowen ratio (154 %) and reduced carbon uptake (60 %). At the same time the forest ecosystem showed increased latent heat flux (151 %), reduced Bowen ratio (19 %) and increased carbon uptake (112 %). Higher temperatures caused increased ecosystem respiration at all sites (up to 139 %). During daytime all ecosystems remained carbon sinks, but carbon uptake was reduced in magnitude. The number of hours during which the ecosystem acted as a carbon sink was also reduced, which switched the woodlands into a carbon source on a daily average. Precipitation occurred after the first, most intense part of the heat wave, and the subsequent cooler temperatures in the temperate woodlands led to recovery of the carbon sink, decreased the Bowen ratio (65 %) and hence increased evaporative cooling. Gross primary productivity in the woodlands recovered quickly with precipitation and cooler temperatures but respiration remained high. While the forest proved relatively resilient to this short-term heat extreme the response of the woodlands is the first direct evidence that the carbon sinks of large areas of Australia may not be sustainable in a future climate with an increased number, intensity and duration of heat waves.
ESM-SnowMIP: assessing snow models and quantifying snow-related climate feedbacks
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 10-12-2018
Abstract: Abstract. This paper describes ESM-SnowMIP, an international coordinated modelling effort to evaluate current snow schemes, including snow schemes that are included in Earth system models, in a wide variety of settings against local and global observations. The project aims to identify crucial processes and characteristics that need to be improved in snow models in the context of local- and global-scale modelling. A further objective of ESM-SnowMIP is to better quantify snow-related feedbacks in the Earth system. Although it is not part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), ESM-SnowMIP is tightly linked to the CMIP6-endorsed Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison (LS3MIP).
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