ORCID Profile
0000-0002-6304-7434
Current Organisations
Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
,
Aviamettelecom of Roshydromet
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Publisher: Hindawi Limited
Date: 2017
DOI: 10.1155/2017/4615072
Abstract: The weather and climate manipulation is examined as an optimal control problem for the earth climate system, which is considered as a complex adaptive dynamical system. Weather and climate manipulations are actually amorphous operations. Since their objectives are usually formulated vaguely, the expected results are fairly unpredictable and uncertain. However, weather and climate modification is a purposeful process and, therefore, we can formulate operations to manipulate weather and climate as the optimization problem within the framework of the optimal control theory. The complexity of the earth’s climate system is discussed and illustrated using the simplified low-order coupled chaotic dynamical system. The necessary conditions of optimality are derived for the large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This confirms that even a relatively simplified control problem for the atmospheric dynamics requires significant efforts to obtain the solution.
Publisher: Impact Journals, LLC
Date: 14-04-2019
Publisher: Hindawi Limited
Date: 2016
DOI: 10.1155/2016/1547462
Abstract: Geophysical cybernetics allows for exploring weather and climate modification (geoengineering) as an optimal control problem in which the Earth’s climate system is considered as a control system and the role of controller is given to human operators. In mathematical models used in climate studies control actions that manipulate the weather and climate can be expressed via variations in model parameters that act as controls. In this paper, we propose the “instability-sensitivity” approach that allows for determining feasible control variables in geoengineering. The method is based on the sensitivity analysis of mathematical models that describe various types of natural instability phenomena. The applicability of this technique is illustrated by a model of atmospheric baroclinic instability since this physical mechanism plays a significant role in the general circulation of the atmosphere and, consequently, in climate formation. The growth rate of baroclinic unstable waves is taken as an indicator of control manipulations. The information obtained via calculated sensitivity coefficients is very beneficial for assessing the physical feasibility of methods of control of the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and for designing optimal control systems for climatic processes. It also provides insight into potential future changes in baroclinic waves, as a result of a changing climate.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 28-10-2018
DOI: 10.3390/CLI6040085
Abstract: In this paper, we apply the optimal control theory to obtain the analytic solutions of the two-component globally averaged energy balance model in order to estimate the influence of solar radiation management (SRM) operations on the global mean surface temperature in the 21st century. It is assumed that SRM is executed via injection of sulfur aerosols into the stratosphere to limit the global temperature increase in the year 2100 by 1.5 °C and keeping global temperature over the specified period (2020–2100) within 2 °C as required by the Paris climate agreement. The radiative forcing produced by the rise in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases is defined by the Representative Concentration Pathways and the 1pctCO2 (1% per year CO2 increase) scenario. The goal of SRM is formulated in terms of extremal problem, which entails finding a control function (the albedo of aerosol layer) that minimizes the amount of aerosols injected into the upper atmosphere to satisfy the Paris climate target. For each climate change scenario, the optimal albedo of the aerosol layer and the corresponding global mean surface temperature changes were obtained. In addition, the aerosol emission rates required to create an aerosol cloud with optimal optical properties were calculated.
Publisher: Pleiades Publishing Ltd
Date: 11-2019
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 11-2020
DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/606/1/012060
Abstract: Every aspect of human activities in the Arctic faces a wide range of risks. By the beginning of the XXI century, mankind had recognized a new class of risks, namely the risks associated with anthropogenic climate change, which is more noticeable in the Arctic, where the rate of warming is twice as high as the world average. The global and especially Arctic climate is likely to continue to change, thereby significantly affecting future socio-economic development, bio ersity, ecosystems and human society. In this paper, we consider climate risks associated with socio-economic development of the Russian Arctic, and propose a modelling framework that allows stakeholders to identify and manage climate risks, assess the economic impacts of climate change in the Arctic, and assist in the development of climate change adaptation strategies.
Publisher: Pleiades Publishing Ltd
Date: 09-2018
Publisher: Pleiades Publishing Ltd
Date: 2019
Publisher: Pleiades Publishing Ltd
Date: 09-2019
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 19-06-2020
Abstract: Using the two-box energy balance model (EBM), we explore the climate system response to radiative forcing generated by variations in the concentrations of stratospheric aerosols and estimate the effect of uncertainties in radiative feedbacks on changes in global mean surface temperature anomaly used as an indicator of the response of the climate system to external radiative perturbations. Radiative forcing generated by stratospheric sulfate aerosols from the second-largest volcanic eruption in the 20th century, the Mount Pinatubo eruption in June 1991, was chosen for this research. The global mean surface temperature response to a specified change in radiative forcing is estimated as a convolution of the derived impulse response function corresponding to EBM with a function that describes the temporal change in radiative forcing. The influence of radiative feedback uncertainties on changes in the global mean surface temperature is estimated using several “versions” of the EBM. The parameters for different “versions” were identified by applying a specific procedure for calibrating the two-box EBM parameters using the results of climate change simulations conducted with coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Changes in the global mean surface temperature caused by stratospheric aerosol forcing are found to be highly sensitive not only to radiative feedbacks but also to climate system inertia defined by the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere–land–ocean mixed layer system, as well as to deep-ocean heat uptake. The results obtained have direct implications for a better understanding of how uncertainties in climate feedbacks, climate system inertia and deep-ocean heat uptake affect climate change modelling.
Publisher: Pleiades Publishing Ltd
Date: 11-2021
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 12-08-2021
DOI: 10.3390/JMSE9080867
Abstract: It is a well-known fact that the observed rise in the Arctic near-surface temperature is more than double the increase in global mean temperature. However, the entire scientific picture of the formation of the Arctic lification has not yet taken final shape and the causes of this phenomenon are still being discussed within the scientific community. Some recent studies suggest that the atmospheric equator-to-pole transport of heat and moisture, and also radiative feedbacks, are among the possible reasons for the Arctic lification. In this paper, we highlight and summarize some of our research related to assessing the response of climate in the Arctic to global warming and vice versa. Since extratropical transient eddies dominate the meridional transport of sensible and latent heat from low to high latitudes, we estimated the effect of climate change on meridional heat transport by means of the β-plane model of baroclinic instability. It has been shown that the heat transport from low and middle latitudes to the Arctic by large scale transient eddies increases by about 9% due to global warming, contributing to the polar lification and thereby a decrease in the extent of the Arctic sea, which, in turn, is an important factor in the formation of the Arctic climate. The main radiative feedback mechanisms affecting the formation of the Arctic climate are also considered and discussed. It was emphasized that the influence of feedbacks depends on a season since the total feedback in the winter season is negative, while in the summer season, it is positive. Thus, further research is required to diminish the uncertainty regarding the character of various feedback mechanisms in the shaping of the Artic climate and, through that, in predicting the extent of Arctic sea ice.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 31-08-2022
DOI: 10.3390/JMSE10091216
Abstract: The ocean, one of the five major components of the Earth’s climate system, plays a key role in climate-forming processes, affecting its change and variability. The ocean influences climate over a wide range of time–space scales. To explore the climate, its components, interactions between them and, in particular, the effect of the ocean on weather and climate, researchers commonly use extremely complex mathematical models of the climate system that describe the atmospheric and ocean general circulations. However, this class of climate models requires enormous human and computing resources to simulate the climate system itself and to analyze the output results. For simple climate models, such as energy balance and similar models, the computational cost is insignificant, which is why these models represent a test tool to mimic a complex climate system and obtaining preliminary estimates of the influence of various internal and external factors on climate, its change and variability. The global mean surface temperature (GMST) and its fluctuations in time serve as critical indicators of changes in the climate system state. We apply a simple two-box ocean model to explore the effect of mixed and deep ocean layers on climate-forming processes and especially on climate change and variability. The effect of mixed and deep ocean layers on GMST is parameterized via the layers’ effective heat capacities and heat exchange between layers. For the listed parameters, the sensitivity functions were derived numerically and analytically, allowing one to obtain an idea of how the mixed and deep ocean layers affect climate change and variability. To study climate change, a deterministic version of the model was used with radiative forcing parameterized by both stepwise and linear functions. In climate variability experiments, a stochastic version of the model was applied in which the radiative forcing is considered as a delta-correlated random process.
Publisher: Hindawi Limited
Date: 2015
DOI: 10.1155/2015/753031
Abstract: Variational data assimilation (VDA) remains one of the key issues arising in many fields of geosciences including the numerical weather prediction. While the theory of VDA is well established, there are a number of issues with practical implementation that require additional consideration and study. However, the exploration of VDA requires considerable computational resources. For simple enough low-order models, the computational cost is minor and therefore models of this class are used as simple test instruments to emulate more complex systems. In this paper, the sensitivity with respect to variations in the parameters of one of the main components of VDA, the nonlinear forecasting model, is considered. For chaotic atmospheric dynamics, conventional methods of sensitivity analysis provide uninformative results since the envelopes of sensitivity functions grow with time and sensitivity functions themselves demonstrate the oscillating behaviour. The use of sensitivity analysis method, developed on the basis of the theory of shadowing pseudoorbits in dynamical systems, allows us to calculate sensitivity functions correctly. Sensitivity estimates for a simple coupled dynamical system are calculated and presented in the paper. To estimate the influence of model parameter uncertainties on the forecast, the relative error in the energy norm is applied.
Publisher: Hindawi Limited
Date: 2014
DOI: 10.1155/2014/498184
Abstract: Complex dynamical processes occurring in the earth’s climate system are strongly nonlinear and exhibit wave-like oscillations within broad time-space spectrum. One way to imitate essential features of such processes is using a coupled nonlinear dynamical system, obtained by coupling two versions of the well-known Lorenz (1963) model with distinct time scales that differ by a certain time-scale factor. This dynamical system is frequently applied for studying various aspects of atmospheric and climate dynamics, as well as for estimating the effectiveness of numerical algorithms and techniques used in numerical weather prediction, data assimilation, and climate simulation. This paper examines basic dynamic, correlative, and spectral properties of this system and quantifies the influence of the coupling strength on power spectrum densities, spectrograms, and autocorrelation functions.
Publisher: Stockholm University Press
Date: 2019
Publisher: Hindawi Limited
Date: 2013
DOI: 10.1155/2013/981271
Abstract: The sensitivity of the main characteristics of baroclinically unstable waves with respect to fundamental parameters of the atmosphere (the static stability parameter σ 0 and vertical shear of a zonal wind Λ ) is theoretically explored. Two types of waves are considered: synoptic scale waves and planetary scale (ultralong) waves based on an Eady-type model and model with vertically averaged primitive equations. Sensitivity functions are obtained that estimate the impact of variations in σ 0 and Λ on the growth rate and other characteristics of unstable waves and demonstrate that waves belonging to the short-wave part of the spectrum of unstable waves are more sensitive to changes in the static stability parameter than waves belonging to the long-wave part of the spectrum. The obtained theoretical results show that the increase of the static stability and decrease of the meridional temperature gradient in midlatitude baroclinic zones in some areas of the southern hemisphere lead to a slowing of the growth rate of baroclinic unstable waves and an increasing wavelength of baroclinic unstable wave maximum growth rate, that is, a spectrum shift of unstable waves towards longer wavelengths. These might affect the favorable conditions for the development of baroclinic instability and, therefore, the intensity of cyclone generation activity.
Publisher: Pleiades Publishing Ltd
Date: 11-2014
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-03-2020
Publisher: Hikari, Ltd.
Date: 2015
Publisher: InTech
Date: 15-03-2017
DOI: 10.5772/66752
Publisher: Hikari, Ltd.
Date: 2015
Publisher: Stockholm University Press
Date: 22-03-2022
DOI: 10.16993/TELLUSA.40
Publisher: Hikari, Ltd.
Date: 2015
Publisher: SPIIRAS
Date: 14-02-2020
Publisher: InTech
Date: 05-10-2016
DOI: 10.5772/64710
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 16-11-2021
DOI: 10.3390/MATH9222920
Abstract: The current climate change, unlike previous ones, is caused by human activity and is characterized by an unprecedented rate of increase in the near-surface temperature and an increase in the frequency and intensity of hazardous weather and climate events. To survive, society must be prepared to implement adaptation strategies and measures to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. This requires, first of all, knowledge of how the climate will change in the future. To date, mathematical modelling remains the only method and effective tool that is used to predict the climate system’s evolution under the influence of natural and anthropogenic perturbations. It is important that mathematics and its methods and approaches have played a vital role in climate research for several decades. In this study, we examined some mathematical methods and approaches, primarily, mathematical modelling and sensitivity analysis, for studying the Earth’s climate system, taking into account the dependence of human health on environmental conditions. The essential features of stochastic climate models and their application for the exploration of climate variability are examined in detail. As an illustrative ex le, we looked at the application of a low-order energy balance model to study climate variability. The effects of variations in feedbacks and the climate system’s inertia on the power spectrum of global mean surface temperature fluctuations that characterized the distribution of temperature variance over frequencies were estimated using a sensitivity analysis approach. Our confidence in the obtained results was based on the satisfactory agreement between the theoretical power spectrum that was derived from the energy balance model and the power spectrum that was obtained from observations and coupled climate models, including historical runs of the CMIP5 models.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 20-11-2019
DOI: 10.3390/APP9234992
Abstract: Research findings suggest that water (hydrological) cycle of the earth intensifies in response to climate change, since the amount of water that evaporates from the ocean and land to the atmosphere and the total water content in the air will increase with temperature. In addition, climate change affects the large-scale atmospheric circulation by, for ex le, altering the characteristics of extratropical transient eddies (cyclones), which play a dominant role in the meridional transport of heat, moisture, and momentum from tropical to polar latitudes. Thus, climate change also affects the planetary hydrological cycle by redistributing atmospheric moisture around the globe. Baroclinic instability, a specific type of dynamical instability of the zonal atmospheric flow, is the principal mechanism by which extratropical cyclones form and evolve. It is expected that, due to global warming, the two most fundamental dynamical quantities that control the development of baroclinic instability and the overall global atmospheric dynamics—the parameter of static stability and the meridional temperature gradient (MTG)—will undergo certain changes. As a result, climate change can affect the formation and evolution of transient extratropical eddies and, therefore, macro-exchange of heat and moisture between low and high latitudes and the global water cycle as a whole. In this paper, we explore the effect of changes in the static stability parameter and MTG caused by climate change on the annual-mean eddy meridional moisture flux (AMEMF), using the two classical atmospheric models: the mid-latitude f-plane model and the two-layer β-plane model. These models are represented in two versions: “dry,” which considers the static stability of dry air alone, and “moist,” in which effective static stability is considered as a combination of stability of dry and moist air together. Sensitivity functions were derived for these models that enable estimating the influence of infinitesimal perturbations in the parameter of static stability and MTG on the AMEMF and on large-scale eddy dynamics characterized by the growth rate of unstable baroclinic waves of various wavelengths. For the base climate change scenario, in which the surface temperature increases by 1 °C and warming of the upper troposphere outpaces warming of the lower troposphere by 2 °C (this scenario corresponds to the observed warming trend), the response of the mass-weighted vertically averaged annual mean MTG is -0.2 ℃ per 1000 km. The dry static stability increases insignificantly relative to the reference climate state, while on the other hand, the effective static stability decreases by more than 5.4%. Assuming that static stability of the atmosphere and the MTG are independent of each other (using One-factor-at-a-time approach), we estimate that the increase in AMEMF caused by change in MTG is about 4%. Change in dry static stability has little effect on AMEMF, while change in effective static stability leads to an increase in AMEMF of about 5%. Thus, neglecting atmospheric moisture in calculations of the atmospheric static stability leads to tangible differences between the results obtained using the dry and moist models. Moist models predict ~9% increase in AMEMF due to global warming. Dry models predict ~4% increase in AMEMF solely because of the change in MTG. For the base climate change scenario, the average temperature of the lower troposphere (up to ~4 km), in which the atmospheric moisture is concentrated, increases by ~1.5 ℃. This leads to an increase in specific humidity of about 10.5%. Thus, since both AMEMF and atmospheric water vapor content increase due to the influence of climate change, a rather noticeable restructuring of the global water cycle is expected.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 04-02-2021
DOI: 10.3390/MATH9040305
Abstract: Intentionally altering natural atmospheric processes using various techniques and technologies for changing weather patterns is one of the appropriate human responses to climate change and can be considered a rather drastic adaptation measure. A fundamental understanding of the human ability to modify weather conditions requires collaborative research in various scientific fields, including, but not limited to, atmospheric sciences and different branches of mathematics. This article being theoretical and methodological in nature, generalizes and, to some extent, summarizes our previous and current research in the field of climate and weather modification and control. By analyzing the deliberate change in weather and climate from an optimal control and dynamical systems perspective, we get the ability to consider the modification of natural atmospheric processes as a dynamic optimization problem with an emphasis on the optimal control problem. Within this conceptual and unified theoretical framework for developing and synthesizing an optimal control for natural weather phenomena, the atmospheric process in question represents a closed-loop dynamical system described by an appropriate mathematical model or, in other words, by a set of differential equations. In this context, the human control actions can be described by variations of the model parameters selected on the basis of sensitivity analysis as control variables. Application of the proposed approach to the problem of weather and climate modification is illustrated using a low-order conceptual model of the Earth’s climate system. For the sake of convenient interpretation, we provide some weather and climate basics, as well as we give a brief glance at control theory and sensitivity analysis of dynamical systems.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 16-01-2018
DOI: 10.3390/ATMOS9010023
Location: Russian Federation
Location: Russian Federation
Location: Russian Federation
No related grants have been discovered for SERGEI SOLDATENKO.