ORCID Profile
0000-0001-8289-7429
Current Organisations
Utrecht University
,
University of Oxford
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Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2014
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2016
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2022
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 21-05-2016
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2016
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-05-2021
DOI: 10.1007/S11625-021-00963-6
Abstract: Scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool to analyze complex and uncertain future socio-ecological developments. However, currently existing global scenarios (narratives of how the world may develop) have neglected biological invasions, a major threat to bio ersity and the economy. Here, we use a novel participatory process to develop a erse set of global biological invasion scenarios spanning a wide range of plausible global futures through to 2050. We adapted the widely used “two axes” scenario analysis approach to develop four families of four scenarios each, resulting in 16 scenarios that were later clustered into four contrasting sets of futures. Our analysis highlights that socioeconomic developments and technological innovation have the potential to shape biological invasions, in addition to well-known drivers, such as climate and human land use change and global trade. Our scenarios partially align with the shared socioeconomic pathways created by the climate change research community. Several factors that drive differences in biological invasions were underrepresented in the shared socioeconomic pathways in particular, the implementation of biosecurity policies. We argue that including factors related to public environmental awareness and technological and trade development in global scenarios and models is essential to adequately consider biological invasions in global environmental assessments and thereby obtain a more integrative picture of future social–ecological developments.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 2021
DOI: 10.1007/S11027-021-09940-X
Abstract: Science–policy engagement efforts to accelerate climate action in agricultural systems are key to enable the sector to contribute to climate and food security goals. However, lessons to improve science–policy engagement efforts in this context mostly come from successful efforts and are limited in terms of empirical scope. Moreover, lessons have not been generated systematically from failed science–policy engagement efforts. Such analysis using lessons from failure management can improve or even transform the efficacy of efforts. To address this knowledge gap, we examined challenges and failures faced in science–policy engagement efforts of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). We developed an explanatory framework inspired by Cash et al.’s criteria for successful knowledge systems for sustainable development: credibility, salience, and legitimacy, complemented with insights from the wider literature. Using this framework in a survey, we identified factors which explain failure. To effectively manage these factors, we propose a novel approach for researchers working at the science–policy interface to fail intelligently, which involves planning for failure, minimizing risks, effective design, making failures visible, and learning from failures. This approach needs to be complemented by actions at the knowledge system level to create an enabling environment for science–policy interfaces.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Joost Vervoort.