ORCID Profile
0000-0002-6054-3571
Current Organisation
UNSW Sydney
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Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 21-01-2020
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 24-05-2021
DOI: 10.1101/2021.05.24.443300
Abstract: Our changing climate is already affecting the transmission of vector borne diseases such as dengue fever. This issue presents a significant public health concern for some nations, such as Bangladesh, which already experience regular seasonal outbreaks of dengue fever under present day conditions. To provide guidance for proactive public health planning to potentially mitigate future infections, we explore the impact of climate change on dengue infections by calculating the change in vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti mosquito at a seasonal level for all regions in Bangladesh under two scenarios for future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. For each of the four climate models used, and for both scenarios, our analysis reveals that the annual vectorial capacity remains at a level that would enable potential dengue epidemic transmission in all regions in Bangladesh. We found a slight decline in vectorial capacity in half of the regions examined during the last two decades of the 21 st Century for the lower-concentration scenario, with a pronounced decline in vectorial capacity in all geographic regions beginning in 2060 for the higher-concentration scenario. The likely reason is that in many regions, warming is leading to sub-optimal mosquito breeding temperatures. However, seasonal differences in vectorial capacity dissipates as the climate warms, to the point that there is almost no observable seasonality for the higher-concentration scenario during the last two decades of this century. This finding suggests there is the potential for the dengue season to extend all year, with outbreaks occurring at any time. Consequently, disease surveillance and control activities would need to be geographically and temporally adapted to mitigate dengue epidemic risk in response to climate change.
Publisher: eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
Date: 08-04-2019
DOI: 10.7554/ELIFE.42869
Abstract: Serostudies are needed to answer generalizable questions on disease risk. However, recruitment is usually biased by age or location. We present a nationally-representative study for dengue from 70 communities in Bangladesh. We collected data on risk factors, trapped mosquitoes and tested serum for IgG. Out of 5866 in iduals, 24% had evidence of historic infection, ranging from 3% in the north to % in Dhaka. Being male (aOR:1.8, [95%CI:1.5–2.0]) and recent travel (aOR:1.3, [1.1–1.8]) were linked to seropositivity. We estimate that 40 million [34.3–47.2] people have been infected nationally, with 2.4 million ([1.3–4.5]) annual infections. Had we visited only 20 communities, seropositivity estimates would have ranged from 13% to 37%, highlighting the lack of representativeness generated by small numbers of communities. Our findings have implications for both the design of serosurveys and tackling dengue in Bangladesh.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-2020
DOI: 10.1186/S13071-020-04503-6
Abstract: Arboviral diseases, including dengue and chikungunya, are major public health concerns in Bangladesh where there have been unprecedented levels of transmission reported in recent years. The primary approach to control these diseases is to control the vector Aedes aegypti using pyrethroid insecticides. Although chemical control has long been practiced, no comprehensive analysis of Ae. aegypti susceptibility to insecticides has been conducted to date. The aim of this study was to determine the insecticide resistance status of Ae. aegypti in Bangladesh and investigate the role of detoxification enzymes and altered target site sensitivity as resistance mechanisms. Eggs of Aedes mosquitoes were collected using ovitraps from five districts across Bangladesh and in eight neighborhoods of the capital city Dhaka, from August to November 2017. CDC bottle bioassays were conducted for permethrin, deltamethrin, malathion, and bendiocarb using 3- to 5-day-old F 0 –F 2 non-blood-fed female mosquitoes. Biochemical assays were conducted to detect metabolic resistance mechanisms, and real-time PCR was performed to determine the frequencies of the knockdown resistance ( kdr ) mutations Gly1016, Cys1534, and Leu410. High levels of resistance to permethrin were detected in all Ae. aegypti populations, with mortality ranging from 0 to 14.8% at the diagnostic dose. Substantial resistance continued to be detected against higher (2×) doses of permethrin (5.1–44.4% mortality). Susceptibility to deltamethrin and malathion varied between populations while complete susceptibility to bendiocarb was observed in all populations. Significantly higher levels of esterase and oxidase activity were detected in most of the test populations as compared to the susceptible reference Rockefeller strain. A significant association was detected between permethrin resistance and the presence of Gly1016 and Cys1534 homozygotes. The frequency of kdr (knockdown resistance) alleles varied across the Dhaka Aedes populations. Leu410 was not detected in any of the tested populations. The detection of widespread pyrethroid resistance and multiple resistance mechanisms highlights the urgency for implementing alternate Ae. aegypti control strategies. In addition, implementing routine monitoring of insecticide resistance in Ae. aegypti in Bangladesh will lead to a greater understanding of susceptibility trends over space and time, thereby enabling the development of improved control strategies.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2020
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 23-11-2021
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0260389
Abstract: In recent non-pandemic periods, tuberculosis (TB) has been the leading killer worldwide from a single infectious disease. Patients with DM are three times more likely to develop active TB and poor treatment outcomes. Single glycemic measurements at TB diagnosis may inaccurately diagnose or mischaracterize DM severity. Data are limited regarding glycemic dynamics from TB diagnosis through treatment. Prospective study of glycemia dynamics in response to TB treatment measured glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) in patients presenting to TB screening centres in Bangladesh to determine the prevalence and risk factors of hyperglycemia before and at TB treatment completion. 429 adults with active TB disease were enrolled and ided into groups based on history of DM and initial HbA1c range: normoglycemia, prediabetes, and DM. DM was diagnosed in 37%. At treatment completion,14(6%) patients from the normoglycemia and prediabetes groups had HbA1c .5%, thus increasing the prevalence of DM to 39%. The number needed to screen to diagnose one new case of DM at TB diagnosis was 5.7 and 16 at treatment completion in the groups without DM. Weight gain % at treatment completion significantly increased the risk of hyperglycemia in the groups without DM at TB diagnosis (95% CI 1.23–26.04, p .05). HbA1c testing prior to and at TB treatment completion found a high prevalence of prediabetes and DM, including a proportion found at treatment completion and commonly in people with a higher percentage of weight gain. Further longitudinal research is needed to understand the effects of TB disease and treatment on insulin resistance and DM complications.
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 23-11-2020
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0241437
Abstract: In Bangladesh, about 80% of healthcare is provided by the private sector. Although free diagnosis and care is offered in the public sector, only half of the estimated number of people with tuberculosis are diagnosed, treated, and notified to the national program. Private sector engagement strategies often have been small scale and time limited. We evaluated a Social Enterprise Model combining external funding and income generation at three tuberculosis screening centres across the Dhaka Metropolitan Area for diagnosing and treating tuberculosis. The model established three tuberculosis screening centres across Dhaka Metropolitan Area that carried the icddr,b brand and offered free Xpert MTB/RIF tests to patients visiting the screening centres for subsidized, digital chest radiographs from April 2014 to December 2017. A network of private and public health care providers, and community recommendation was formed for patient referral. No financial incentives were offered to physicians for referrals. Revenues from radiography were used to support screening centres’ operation. Tuberculosis patients could choose to receive treatment from the private or public sector. Between 2014 and 2017, 1,032 private facilities networked with 8,466 private providers were mapped within the Dhaka Metropolitan Area. 64, 031 patients with TB symptoms were referred by the private providers, public sector and community residents to the three screening centres with 80% coming from private providers. 4,270 private providers made at least one referral. Overall, 10,288 pulmonary and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis cases were detected and 7,695 were bacteriologically positive by Xpert, corresponding to 28% of the total notifications in Dhaka Metropolitan Area. The model established a network of private providers who referred in iduals with presumptive tuberculosis without financial incentives to icddr,b’s screening centres, facilitating a quarter of total tuberculosis notifications in Dhaka Metropolitan Area. Scaling up this approach may enhance national and international tuberculosis response.
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 14-06-2022
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PDIG.0000067
Abstract: Computer-aided detection (CAD) was recently recommended by the WHO for TB screening and triage based on several evaluations, but unlike traditional diagnostic tests, software versions are updated frequently and require constant evaluation. Since then, newer versions of two of the evaluated products have already been released. We used a case control s le of 12,890 chest X-rays to compare performance and model the programmatic effect of upgrading to newer versions of CAD4TB and qXR. We compared the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), overall, and with data stratified by age, TB history, gender, and patient source. All versions were compared against radiologist readings and WHO’s Target Product Profile (TPP) for a TB triage test. Both newer versions significantly outperformed their predecessors in terms of AUC: CAD4TB version 6 (0.823 [0.816–0.830]), version 7 (0.903 [0.897–0.908]) and qXR version 2 (0.872 [0.866–0.878]), version 3 (0.906 [0.901–0.911]). Newer versions met WHO TPP values, older versions did not. All products equalled or surpassed the human radiologist performance with improvements in triage ability in newer versions. Humans and CAD performed worse in older age groups and among those with TB history. New versions of CAD outperform their predecessors. Prior to implementation CAD should be evaluated using local data because underlying neural networks can differ significantly. An independent rapid evaluation centre is necessitated to provide implementers with performance data on new versions of CAD products as they are developed.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2022
DOI: 10.1016/J.IJID.2021.11.010
Abstract: The World Health Organization is considering substituting Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) with Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Ultra) for tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis, but supportive evidence is scarce, particularly among people more likely (presumptive) to have paucibacillary pulmonary TB (PTB). During January-July 2018, presumptive PTB patients visiting TB Screening and Treatment Centres of Dhaka for routine chest X-ray (CXR) and conventional Xpert were enrolled. Sputum specimens were additionally tested with microscopy, culture, and Ultra. Specimens with "Trace call" by Ultra (Ultra-trace) were retested. Yield and diagnostic accuracy using various approaches to Ultra-trace and concordance of Ultra with bacteriological-positive PTB were assessed. Altogether, 1,083 participants (104 'Xpert-positive' 979 'Xpert-negative and CXR-suggestive') were enrolled. All Xpert-positives and 900 (92%) Xpert-negatives were concordant with Ultra, however, seventy-nine (8.1%) Xpert-negative specimens tested positive with Ultra 37 (46.8%) were categorically positives, and 42 (53.2%) were Ultra-trace. Sixteen of the 42 were retested, of whom eight (50.1%) Ultra-trace turned categorically positive, leading to 45 (4.6%) additionally detected by Ultra. Ultra sensitivity and specificity were 93.9% and 94.6%, and it additionally detected 5.4% more TB patients with a concordance of 94.6% (kappa, □=0.78) compared to any bacteriologically positive specimen (microscopy, culture, or Xpert). Ultra exhibited improved detection and accuracy among Xpert-negatives in a cohort with a high likelihood of PTB.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2021
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 18-05-2020
DOI: 10.1093/CID/CIAA583
Abstract: The World Health Organization recommends the Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra assay for diagnosing pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in children. Though stool is a potential alternative to respiratory specimens among children, the diagnostic performance of Xpert Ultra on stool is unknown. Thus, we assessed the diagnostic performance of Xpert Ultra on stool to diagnose PTB in children. We conducted a cross-sectional study among consecutively recruited children (& 15 years of age) with presumptive PTB admitted in 4 tertiary care hospitals in Dhaka, Bangladesh, between January 2018 and April 2019. Single induced sputum and stool specimens were subjected to culture, Xpert, and Xpert Ultra. We considered children as bacteriologically confirmed on induced sputum if any test performed on induced sputum was positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis and bacteriologically confirmed if M. tuberculosis was detected on either induced sputum or stool. Of 447 children, 29 (6.5%) were bacteriologically confirmed on induced sputum and 72 (16.1%) were bacteriologically confirmed. With “bacteriologically confirmed on induced sputum” as a reference, the sensitivity and specificity of Xpert Ultra on stool were 58.6% and 88.1%, respectively. Xpert on stool had sensitivity and specificity of 37.9% and 100.0%, respectively. Among bacteriologically confirmed children, Xpert Ultra on stool was positive in 60 (83.3%), of whom 48 (80.0%) had “trace call.” In children, Xpert Ultra on stool has better sensitivity but lesser specificity than Xpert. A high proportion of Xpert Ultra assays positive on stool had trace call. Future longitudinal studies on clinical evolution are required to provide insight on the management of children with trace call.
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 23-03-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2020
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 07-11-2016
Abstract: Although the determinants of infectious disease transmission have been extensively investigated in small social structures such as households or schools, the impact of the wider environment (e.g., neighborhood) on transmission has received less attention. Here we use an outbreak of chikungunya as a case study where detailed epidemiological data were collected and combine it with statistical approaches to characterize the multiple factors that influence the risk of infectious disease transmission and may depend on characteristics of the in idual (e.g., age, sex), of his or her close relatives (e.g., household members), or of the wider neighborhood. Our findings highlight the role that integrating statistical approaches with in-depth information on the at-risk population can have on understanding pathogen spread.
Publisher: American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Date: 05-12-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2020
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 21-06-2018
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 16-03-2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.13.20035352
Abstract: Pandemic Vibrio cholerae from cholera-endemic countries around the Bay of Bengal regularly seed epidemics globally. Without reducing cholera in these countries, including Bangladesh, global cholera control may never be achieved. Little is known about the geographic distribution and magnitude of V. cholerae O1 transmission nationally. Here we use recent advances in cholera seroepidemiology to describe infection risk across Bangladesh overcoming many of the limitations of current clinic-based surveillance. We tested serum from a nationally-representative serosurvey in Bangladesh of 2,778 participants with eight V. cholerae -specific assays. Using these data with a previously validated machine learning model we estimate the annual seroincidence rate and use Bayesian geostatistical models to create high-resolution national maps of infection risk. We estimate a national seroincidence rate of 19.1% (95% CI 12.2-26.9%). Our high-resolution maps reveal large heterogeneity of infection risk, with community-level annual infection risk within the s led population ranging from 2.4-69.0%. Across the country, we estimate that 31.0 million (95% CI 19.8-43.7 million) occurred in the year before the survey with most of these infections occurring in urban areas, including Dhaka, the capital. Serosurveillance provides an avenue for identifying areas with high V. cholerae O1 transmission and exploring key risk factors for infection across geographic scales. This may serve as an important tool for countries to plan and monitor progress towards 2030 cholera elimination goals.
Publisher: eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
Date: 20-02-2019
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 14-10-2021
Location: Bangladesh
Location: No location found
Location: Bangladesh
No related grants have been discovered for Kishor Kumar Paul.