ORCID Profile
0000-0001-9385-4782
Current Organisations
Albert Einstein College of Medicine
,
University of New South Wales
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Research Topics
In Research Link Australia (RLA), "Research Topics" refer to ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes. These topics are either sourced from ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes listed in researchers' related grants or generated by a large language model (LLM) based on their publications.
Top 5 Research Topics
ANZSRC Field of Research (FoR)
Palaeoclimatology | Physical Oceanography | Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience | Climate Change Processes
ANZSRC Socio-Economic Objective (SEO)
Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Environments (excl. Social Impacts) | Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Oceanography | Climate Change Models |
Related Links
Publications
Supplementary material to "DeepMIP: Model intercomparison of early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO) large-scale climate features and comparison with proxy data"
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 02-01-2020
Supplementary material to Sea surface temperature evolution of the North Atlantic Ocean across the Eocene-Oligocene Transition
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 25-01-2022
Meridional Heat Transport in the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: non-CO2 and CO2 effects
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-6749
Abstract: The total meridional heat transport (MHT) is relatively stable across different climates. Nevertheless, the strength of in idual processes contributing to the total transport are not stable. Here we investigate the MHT and its main components especially in the atmosphere, in five coupled climate model simulations from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). These simulations target the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), a geological time period with high CO2 concentrations, analogous to the upper range of end-of-century CO2 projections. Preindustrial and early Eocene simulations at a range of CO2& levels (1x, 3x and 6x preindustrial values) are used to quantify the MHT changes in response to both CO2 and non-CO2 related forcings. We found that atmospheric poleward heat transport increases with CO2, while the effect of non-CO2 boundary conditions (e.g., paleogeography, land ice, vegetation) is causing more poleward atmospheric heat transport on the Northern and less on the Southern Hemisphere. The changes in paleogeography increase the heat transport via transient eddies at the mid-latitudes in the Eocene. The Hadley cells have an asymmetric response to both the CO2 and non-CO2 constraints. The poleward latent heat transport of monsoon systems increases with rising CO2 concentrations, but this effect is offset by the Eocene topography. Our results show that the changes in the monsoon systems& #8217 latent heat transport is a robust feature of CO2 warming, which is in line with the currently observed precipitation increase of present day monsoon systems.
Global- and regional-scale hydrological response to early Eocene warmth
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-09-2022
The Relationship Between the Global Mean Deep‐Sea and Surface Temperature During the Early Eocene
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 28-02-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2022PA004532
Abstract: Estimates of global mean near‐surface air temperature (global SAT) for the Cenozoic era rely largely on paleo‐proxy data of deep‐sea temperature (DST), with the assumption that changes in global SAT covary with changes in the global mean deep‐sea temperature (global DST) and global mean sea‐surface temperature (global SST). We tested the validity of this assumption by analyzing the relationship between global SST, SAT, and DST using 25 different model simulations from the Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project simulating the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) with varying CO 2 levels. Similar to the modern situation, we find limited spatial variability in DST, indicating that local DST estimates can be regarded as a first order representative of global DST. In line with previously assumed relationships, linear regression analysis indicates that both global DST and SAT respond stronger to changes in atmospheric CO 2 than global SST by a similar factor. Consequently, this model‐based analysis validates the assumption that changes in global DST can be used to estimate changes in global SAT during the early Cenozoic. Paleo‐proxy estimates of global DST, SST, and SAT during EECO show the best fit with model simulations with a 1,680 ppm atmospheric CO 2 level. This matches paleo‐proxies of EECO atmospheric CO 2 , indicating a good fit between models and proxy‐data.
Simulating Miocene Warmth: Insights From an Opportunistic Multi‐Model Ensemble (MioMIP1)
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020PA004054
Abstract: The Miocene epoch, spanning 23.03–5.33 Ma, was a dynamic climate of sustained, polar lified warmth. Miocene atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are typically reconstructed between 300 and 600 ppm and were potentially higher during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (16.75–14.5 Ma). With surface temperature reconstructions pointing to substantial midlatitude and polar warmth, it is unclear what processes maintained the much weaker‐than‐modern equator‐to‐pole temperature difference. Here, we synthesize several Miocene climate modeling efforts together with available terrestrial and ocean surface temperature reconstructions. We evaluate the range of model‐data agreement, highlight robust mechanisms operating across Miocene modeling efforts and regions where differences across experiments result in a large spread in warming responses. Prescribed CO 2 is the primary factor controlling global warming across the ensemble. On average, elements other than CO 2 , such as Miocene paleogeography and ice sheets, raise global mean temperature by ∼2°C, with the spread in warming under a given CO 2 concentration (due to a combination of the spread in imposed boundary conditions and climate feedback strengths) equivalent to ∼1.2 times a CO 2 doubling. This study uses an ensemble of opportunity: models, boundary conditions, and reference data sets represent the state‐of‐art for the Miocene, but are inhomogeneous and not ideal for a formal intermodel comparison effort. Acknowledging this caveat, this study is nevertheless the first Miocene multi‐model, multi‐proxy comparison attempted so far. This study serves to take stock of the current progress toward simulating Miocene warmth while isolating remaining challenges that may be well served by community‐led efforts to coordinate modeling and data activities within a common analytical framework.
Proxy‐Model Comparison for the Eocene‐Oligocene Transition in Southern High Latitudes
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2022PA004496
Abstract: The Eocene‐Oligocene transition (EOT) marks the shift from greenhouse to icehouse conditions at 34 Ma, when a permanent ice sheet developed on Antarctica. Climate modeling studies have recently assessed the drivers of the transition globally. Here we revisit those experiments for a detailed study of the southern high latitudes in comparison to the growing number of mean annual sea surface temperature (SST) and mean air temperature (MAT) proxy reconstructions, allowing us to assess proxy‐model temperature agreement and refine estimates for the magnitude of the p CO 2 forcing of the EOT. We compile and update published proxy temperature records on and around Antarctica for the late Eocene (38–34 Ma) and early Oligocene (34–30 Ma). Compiled SST proxies cool by up to 3°C and MAT by up to 4°C between the timeslices. Proxy data were compared to previous climate model simulations representing pre‐ and post‐EOT, typically forced with a halving of p CO 2 . We scaled the model outputs to identify the magnitude of p CO 2 change needed to drive a commensurate change in temperature to best fit the temperature proxies. The multi‐model ensemble needs a 30 or 33% decrease in p CO 2 , to best fit MAT or SST proxies respectively. These proxy‐model intercomparisons identify declining p CO 2 as the primary forcing of EOT cooling, with a magnitude (200 or 243 ppmv) approaching that of the p CO 2 proxies (150 ppmv). However in idual model estimates span a decrease of 66–375 ppmv, thus proxy‐model uncertainties are dominated by model ergence.
Response to Referee 1
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 29-08-2020
Response to Referee 2
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 29-08-2020
Arctic closure as a trigger for Atlantic overturning at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-08-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-019-11828-Z
Abstract: The Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT), approximately 34 Ma ago, marks a period of major global cooling and inception of the Antarctic ice sheet. Proxies of deep circulation suggest a contemporaneous onset or strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Proxy evidence of gradual salinification of the North Atlantic and tectonically driven isolation of the Arctic suggest that closing the Arctic-Atlantic gateway could have triggered the AMOC at the EOT. We demonstrate this trigger of the AMOC using a new paleoclimate model with late Eocene boundary conditions. The control simulation reproduces Eocene observations of low Arctic salinities. Subsequent closure of the Arctic-Atlantic gateway triggers the AMOC by blocking freshwater inflow from the Arctic. Salt advection feedbacks then lead to cessation of overturning in the North Pacific. These circulation changes imply major warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, and simultaneous cooling of the North Pacific, but no interhemispheric change in temperatures.
Arctic closure as a trigger for Atlantic overturning at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-03-2020
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU2020-7493
Abstract: & & & strong& The Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT), approximately 34 Ma ago, marks a period of major global cooling and inception of the Antarctic ice sheet. Proxies of deep circulation suggest a contemporaneous onset or strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Proxy evidence of gradual salinification of the North Atlantic and tectonically driven isolation of the Arctic suggest that closing the Arctic-Atlantic gateway could have triggered the AMOC at the EOT. We demonstrate this trigger of the AMOC using a new paleoclimate model with late Eocene boundary conditions. The control simulation reproduces Eocene observations of low Arctic salinities. Subsequent closure of the Arctic-Atlantic gateway triggers the AMOC by blocking freshwater inflow from the Arctic. Salt advection feedbacks then lead to cessation of overturning in the North Pacific. These circulation changes imply major warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, and simultaneous cooling of the North Pacific, but no interhemispheric change in temperatures.& /strong& & &
Ice–Atmosphere Feedbacks Dominate the Response of the Climate System to Drake Passage Closure
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2017
Abstract: The response of the global climate system to Drake Passage (DP) closure is examined using a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere–ice model. Unlike most previous studies, a full three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation model is included with a complete hydrological cycle and a freely evolving wind field, as well as a coupled dynamic–thermodynamic sea ice module. Upon DP closure the initial response is found to be consistent with previous ocean-only and intermediate-complexity climate model studies, with an expansion and invigoration of the Antarctic meridional overturning, along with a slowdown in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) production. This results in a dominance of Southern Ocean poleward geostrophic flow and Antarctic sinking when DP is closed. However, within just a decade of DP closure, the increased southward heat transport has melted back a substantial fraction of Antarctic sea ice. At the same time the polar oceans warm by 4°–6°C on the zonal mean, and the maximum strength of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies weakens by ≃10%. These effects, not captured in models without ice and atmosphere feedbacks, combine to force Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) to warm and freshen, to the point that this water mass becomes less dense than NADW. This leads to a marked contraction of the Antarctic overturning, allowing NADW to ventilate the abyssal ocean once more. Poleward heat transport settles back to very similar values as seen in the unperturbed DP open case. Yet remarkably, the equilibrium climate in the closed DP configuration retains a strong Southern Hemisphere warming, similar to past studies with no dynamic atmosphere. However, here it is ocean–atmosphere–ice feedbacks, primarily the ice-albedo feedback and partly the weakened midlatitude jet, not a vigorous southern sinking, which maintain the warm polar oceans. This demonstrates that DP closure can drive a hemisphere-scale warming with polar lification, without the presence of any vigorous Southern Hemisphere overturning circulation. Indeed, DP closure leads to warming that is sufficient over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to inhibit ice-sheet growth. This highlights the importance of the DP gap, Antarctic sea ice, and the associated ice-albedo feedback in maintaining the present-day glacial state over Antarctica.
DeepMIP: Model intercomparison of early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO) large-scale climate features and comparison with proxy data
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 02-01-2020
DOI: 10.5194/CP-2019-149
Abstract: Abstract. We present results from an ensemble of seven climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, ~ 50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of DeepMIP (www.deepmip.org), and as such all models have been configured with identical paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO2 boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5 °C to Eocene warmth. Compared to results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations show reduced spread of global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble, for a given atmospheric CO2 concentration. In a marked departure from the results from previous simulations, at least two of the DeepMIP models (CESM and GFDL) are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature, and atmospheric CO2, and meridional SST gradients. The best agreement with global SST proxies from these models occurs at CO2 concentrations of around 2400 ppmv. At a more regional scale the models lack skill in reproducing the proxy SSTs, in particular in the southwest Pacific, around New Zealand and south Australia, where the modelled anomalies are substantially less than indicated by the proxies. However, in these regions modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying an inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxies or models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large scale features and model-data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for ex le the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography and aerosols.
African Hydroclimate During the Early Eocene From the DeepMIP Simulations
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022PA004419
Abstract: The early Eocene (∼56–48 Myr ago) is characterized by high CO 2 estimates (1,200–2,500 ppmv) and elevated global temperatures (∼10°C–16°C higher than modern). However, the response of the hydrological cycle during the early Eocene is poorly constrained, especially in regions with sparse data coverage (e.g., Africa). Here, we present a study of African hydroclimate during the early Eocene, as simulated by an ensemble of state‐of‐the‐art climate models in the Deep‐time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). A comparison between the DeepMIP pre‐industrial simulations and modern observations suggests that model biases are model‐ and geographically dependent, however, these biases are reduced in the model ensemble mean. A comparison between the Eocene simulations and the pre‐industrial suggests that there is no obvious wetting or drying trend as the CO 2 increases. The results suggest that changes to the land sea mask (relative to modern) in the models may be responsible for the simulated increases in precipitation to the north of Eocene Africa. There is an increase in precipitation over equatorial and West Africa and associated drying over northern Africa as CO 2 rises. There are also important dynamical changes, with evidence that anticyclonic low‐level circulation is replaced by increased south‐westerly flow at high CO 2 levels. Lastly, a model‐data comparison using newly compiled quantitative climate estimates from paleobotanical proxy data suggests a marginally better fit with the reconstructions at lower levels of CO 2 .
Plant Proxy Evidence for High Rainfall and Productivity in the Eocene of Australia
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 26-05-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022PA004418
Abstract: During the early to middle Eocene, a mid‐to‐high latitudinal position and enhanced hydrological cycle in Australia would have contributed to a wetter and “greener” Australian continent where today arid to semi‐arid climates dominate. Here, we revisit 12 southern Australian plant megafossil sites from the early to middle Eocene to generate temperature, precipitation, and seasonality paleoclimate estimates, net primary productivity (NPP), and vegetation type, based on paleobotanical proxies and compare them to early Eocene global climate models. Temperature reconstructions are uniformly subtropical (mean annual, summer, and winter mean temperatures 19–21°C, 25–27°C, and 14–16°C, respectively), indicating that southern Australia was ∼5°C warmer than today, despite a ° poleward shift from its modern geographic location. Precipitation was less homogeneous than temperature, with mean annual precipitation of ∼60 cm over inland sites and cm over coastal sites. Precipitation may have been seasonal with the driest month receiving 2–7× less than the mean monthly precipitation. Proxy‐model comparison is favorable with a 1,680 ppm CO 2 concentration. However, in idual proxy reconstructions can disagree with models as well as with each other. In particular, seasonality reconstructions have systemic offsets. NPP estimates were higher than modern, implying a more homogenously “green” southern Australia in the early to middle Eocene when this part of Australia was at 48–64°S and larger carbon fluxes to and from the Australian biosphere. The most similar modern vegetation type is modern‐day eastern Australian subtropical forest, although the distance from coast and latitude may have led to vegetation heterogeneity.
Response to Reviewer 2
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 09-05-2018
Pleistocene glacial history of the New Zealand subantarctic islands
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 14-03-2019
Abstract: Abstract. The New Zealand subantarctic islands of Auckland and C bell, situated between the subtropical front and the Antarctic Convergence in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, provide valuable terrestrial records from a globally important climatic region. Whilst the islands show clear evidence of past glaciation, the timing and mechanisms behind Pleistocene environmental and climate changes remain uncertain. Here we present a multidisciplinary study of the islands – including marine and terrestrial geomorphological surveys, extensive analyses of sedimentary sequences, a comprehensive dating programme, and glacier flow line modelling – to investigate multiple phases of glaciation across the islands. We find evidence that the Auckland Islands hosted a small ice cap 384 000 ± 26 000 years ago (384±26 ka), most likely during Marine Isotope Stage 10, a period when the subtropical front was reportedly north of its present-day latitude by several degrees, and consistent with hemispheric-wide glacial expansion. Flow line modelling constrained by field evidence suggests a more restricted glacial period prior to the LGM that formed substantial valley glaciers on the C bell and Auckland Islands around 72–62 ka. Despite previous interpretations that suggest the maximum glacial extent occurred in the form of valley glaciation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM ∼21 ka), our combined approach suggests minimal LGM glaciation across the New Zealand subantarctic islands and that no glaciers were present during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR ∼15–13 ka). Instead, modelling implies that despite a regional mean annual air temperature depression of ∼5 ∘C during the LGM, a combination of high seasonality and low precipitation left the islands incapable of sustaining significant glaciation. We suggest that northwards expansion of winter sea ice during the LGM and subsequent ACR led to precipitation starvation across the middle to high latitudes of the Southern Ocean, resulting in restricted glaciation of the subantarctic islands.
Response to Reviewer 1 (Casimir de Lavergne)
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 09-05-2018
The Non-Coding RNA Journal Club: Highlights on Recent Papers—9
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 16-09-2021
DOI: 10.3390/NCRNA7030058
Abstract: We are delighted to share with you our ninth Journal Club and highlight some of the most interesting papers published recently [...]
Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2022
Global and Zonal‐Mean Hydrological Response to Early Eocene Warmth
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2022PA004542
Abstract: Earth's hydrological cycle is expected to intensify in response to global warming, with a “wet‐gets‐wetter, dry‐gets‐drier” response anticipated over the ocean. Subtropical regions (∼15°–30°N/S) are predicted to become drier, yet proxy evidence from past warm climates suggests these regions may be characterized by wetter conditions. Here we use an integrated data‐modeling approach to reconstruct global and zonal‐mean rainfall patterns during the early Eocene (∼56–48 million years ago). The Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) model ensemble indicates that the mid‐ (30°–60°N/S) and high‐latitudes ( °N/S) are characterized by a thermodynamically dominated hydrological response to warming and overall wetter conditions. The tropical band (0°–15°N/S) is also characterized by wetter conditions, with several DeepMIP models simulating narrowing of the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone. However, the latter is not evident from the proxy data. The subtropics are characterized by negative precipitation‐evaporation anomalies (i.e., drier conditions) in the DeepMIP models, but there is surprisingly large inter‐model variability in mean annual precipitation (MAP). Intriguingly, we find that models with weaker meridional temperature gradients (e.g., CESM, GFDL) are characterized by a reduction in subtropical moisture ergence, leading to an increase in MAP. These model simulations agree more closely with our new proxy‐derived precipitation reconstructions and other key climate metrics and imply that the early Eocene was characterized by reduced subtropical moisture ergence. If the meridional temperature gradient was even weaker than suggested by those DeepMIP models, circulation‐induced changes may have outcompeted thermodynamic changes, leading to wetter subtropics. This highlights the importance of accurately reconstructing zonal temperature gradients when reconstructing past rainfall patterns.
Early Eocene Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: The Roles of Atmospheric Forcing and Strait Geometry
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021PA004329
Abstract: Here, we compare the ocean overturning circulation of the early Eocene (47–56 Ma) in eight coupled climate model simulations from the Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) and investigate the causes of the observed inter‐model spread. The most common global meridional overturning circulation (MOC) feature of these simulations is the anticlockwise bottom cell, fed by sinking in the Southern Ocean. In the North Pacific, one model (GFDL) displays strong deepwater formation and one model (CESM) shows weak deepwater formation, while in the Atlantic two models show signs of weak intermediate water formation (MIROC and NorESM). The location of the Southern Ocean deepwater formation sites varies among models and relates to small differences in model geometry of the Southern Ocean gateways. Globally, convection occurs in the basins with smallest local freshwater gain from the atmosphere. The global MOC is insensitive to atmospheric CO 2 concentrations from 1× (i.e., 280 ppm) to 3× (840 ppm) pre‐industrial levels. Only two models have simulations with higher CO 2 (i.e., CESM and GFDL) and these show ergent responses, with a collapsed and active MOC, respectively, possibly due to differences in spin‐up conditions. Combining the multiple model results with available proxy data on abyssal ocean circulation highlights that strong Southern Hemisphere‐driven overturning is the most likely feature of the early Eocene. In the North Atlantic, unlike the present day, neither model results nor proxy data suggest deepwater formation in the open ocean during the early Eocene, while the evidence for deepwater formation in the North Pacific remains inconclusive.
Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 26-10-2020
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to 28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and 27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk” equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS 66 % confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C), 3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to 4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values ( .5 per doubling CO2).
Supplementary material to "Pleistocene glacial history of the New Zealand subantarctic islands"
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 25-05-2018
Southern Ocean Response to Relative Velocity Wind Stress Forcing
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-2010
Abstract: An eddy-resolving quasigeostrophic model of the Southern Ocean coupled to a dynamic atmospheric mixed layer is used to compare the performance of two different wind stress parameterization schemes. The first is the standard quadratic drag law, based on atmospheric velocity alone, whereas the second (more exact) formulation is based on the difference between ocean and atmosphere velocities. The two different schemes give very similar magnitudes of mean stress however, the relative velocity scheme has substantially lower power input, resulting in a weaker eddy field, and consequently, greater circumpolar transport. These results are explored in terms of the existing theories of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (including eddy saturation and eddy d ing) and the implications for modeling the Southern Ocean are discussed.
The Impact of Southern Ocean Topographic Barriers on the Ocean Circulation and the Overlying Atmosphere
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-09-2022
Abstract: Southern Ocean bathymetry constrains the path of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), but the bathymetric influence on the coupled ocean–atmosphere system is poorly understood. Here, we investigate this impact by respectively flattening large topographic barriers around the Kerguelen Plateau, C bell Plateau, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and Drake Passage in four simulations in a coupled climate model. The barriers impact both the wind and buoyancy forcing of the ACC transport, which increases by between 4% and 14% when barriers are removed in idually and by 56% when all barriers are removed simultaneously. The removal of Kerguelen Plateau bathymetry increases convection south of the plateau and the removal of Drake Passage bathymetry reduces convection upstream in the Ross Sea. When the barriers are removed, zonal flattening of the currents leads to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that strongly correlate to precipitation anomalies, with correlation coefficients ranging between r = 0.92 and r = 0.97 in the four experiments. The SST anomalies correlate to the surface winds too in some locations. However, they also generate circumpolar waves of sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies, which induce remote wind speed changes that are unconnected to the underlying SST field. The meridional variability in the wind stress curl contours over the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the Kerguelen Plateau, and the C bell Plateau disappears when these barriers are removed, confirming the impact of bathymetry on surface winds. However, bathymetry-induced wind changes are too small to affect the overall wave-3 asymmetry in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. Removal of Southern Hemisphere orography is also inconsequential to the wave-3 pattern. Several studies in the past have pointed to the controlling effect of bathymetry on currents in the Southern Ocean circulation, but a clear idea of the importance of the major topographic barriers in the Southern Ocean is lacking. By removing these barriers systematically in a coupled climate model, we can evaluate their impact on several important components of the climate system, such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) pathways and strength, Antarctic Bottom Water formation, sea surface temperature, overlying winds, air–sea fluxes, and even precipitation. This helps in our understanding of what controls the pathways of the ACC and how much it matters for climate.
Interhemispheric asymmetry in transient global warming: The role of Drake Passage
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 28-04-2013
DOI: 10.1002/GRL.50341
Impact of Mountains in Southern China on the Eocene Climates of East Asia
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-09-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022JD036510
Abstract: Inconsistencies in the Eocene climates of East Asia have been revealed in both geological studies and simulations. Several earlier reconstructions showed an arid zonal band in mid‐latitude China, but others showed a humid climate in the same region. Moreover, previous Eocene modeling studies have demonstrated that climate models can simulate both scenarios in China. Therefore, it is essential to investigate the cause of this model spread. We conducted a series of experiments using Norwegian Earth System Model 1‐F and examined the impact of mountains in Southern China on the simulated Eocene climate. These mountains, including the Gangdese and Southeast Mountains, are located along the main path of water vapor transport to East Asia. Our results reveal that the Southeast Mountains play the dominant role in controlling the simulated precipitation in Eastern China during the Eocene. When the heights of the Southeast Mountains exceed ∼2,000 m, an arid zonal band appears in mid‐latitude China, whereas humid climates appear in Eastern China when the elevation of the Southeast Mountains is relatively low.
The Eocene–Oligocene transition: a review of marine and terrestrial proxy data, models and model–data comparisons
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-01-2021
Abstract: Abstract. The Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT) was a climate shift from a largely ice-free greenhouse world to an icehouse climate, involving the first major glaciation of Antarctica and global cooling occurring ∼34 million years ago (Ma) and lasting ∼790 kyr. The change is marked by a global shift in deep-sea δ18O representing a combination of deep-ocean cooling and growth in land ice volume. At the same time, multiple independent proxies for ocean temperature indicate sea surface cooling, and major changes in global fauna and flora record a shift toward more cold-climate-adapted species. The two principal suggested explanations of this transition are a decline in atmospheric CO2 and changes to ocean gateways, while orbital forcing likely influenced the precise timing of the glaciation. Here we review and synthesise proxy evidence of palaeogeography, temperature, ice sheets, ocean circulation and CO2 change from the marine and terrestrial realms. Furthermore, we quantitatively compare proxy records of change to an ensemble of climate model simulations of temperature change across the EOT. The simulations compare three forcing mechanisms across the EOT: CO2 decrease, palaeogeographic changes and ice sheet growth. Our model ensemble results demonstrate the need for a global cooling mechanism beyond the imposition of an ice sheet or palaeogeographic changes. We find that CO2 forcing involving a large decrease in CO2 of ca. 40 % (∼325 ppm drop) provides the best fit to the available proxy evidence, with ice sheet and palaeogeographic changes playing a secondary role. While this large decrease is consistent with some CO2 proxy records (the extreme endmember of decrease), the positive feedback mechanisms on ice growth are so strong that a modest CO2 decrease beyond a critical threshold for ice sheet initiation is well capable of triggering rapid ice sheet growth. Thus, the litude of CO2 decrease signalled by our data–model comparison should be considered an upper estimate and perhaps artificially large, not least because the current generation of climate models do not include dynamic ice sheets and in some cases may be under-sensitive to CO2 forcing. The model ensemble also cannot exclude the possibility that palaeogeographic changes could have triggered a reduction in CO2.
Sea surface temperature evolution of the North Atlantic Ocean across the Eocene-Oligocene Transition
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-8831
Abstract: When a permanent ice cap developed on Antarctica during the Eocene& #8211 Oligocene transition (EOT ~34.44 to 33.65 million years ago (Ma)), Earth witnessed a transition from a greenhouse towards a glacially driven climate. Evidence of high-latitude cooling and increased latitudinal temperature gradients across the EOT has been found in both marine and terrestrial environments. However, the timing and magnitude of temperature change in the North Atlantic remains poorly constrained.Here, we used two independent organic geochemical palaeothermometers derived from (i) alkenones and (ii) Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraether (GDGT) lipids, to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) evolution across the EOT from the southern Labrador Sea (Sites: ODP 647 and DSDP 112). In the Labrador Sea alkenones do not appear until the earliest Oligocene (both sites) while GDGT lipids (analysed in Site 647 only) provides a well-constrained temperature record across the EOT. & Our SST records provide the most detailed record for the northern North Atlantic through the 1 Myr leading up to the EOT onset, and reveals a distinctive cooling step of ~3 & #186 C (from 27 to 24 & #186 C), between 34.9 and 34.3 Ma, ~500 kyr prior to Antarctic glaciation. This cooling step, when compared visually to other SST records, is asynchronous across North and South Atlantic sites. This illustrates a considerable spatiotemporal variability in SST evolution in the northern sector of the North Atlantic and the Norwegian-Greenland Sea. Overall, the cooling step fits within a phase of general SST cooling recorded across sites in the North Atlantic in the 5 Myr interval bracketing the EOT.We used a modelling study (GFDL CM2.1) to try and reconcile the observation of pre-EOT cooling with the hypothesis that Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) switched on or intensified on the lead up to the EOT, which would be expected to have warmed the North Atlantic region. Results suggest that a reduction in atmospheric CO2 from 800 to 400 ppm may be sufficient to counter warming from an AMOC start-up. In the model, the AMOC start-up is initiated during closure of the Arctic& #8211 Atlantic gateway.While the model simulations applied here are not yet in full equilibrium, and the experiments are idealized, the results, together with the proxy data, highlight the heterogeneity of basin-scale surface ocean responses to the EOT thermohaline changes, with sharp temperature contrasts expected across the northern North Atlantic as positions of the subtropical and subpolar gyre systems shift in response to climatic and oceanic adjustments.
Supplementary material to "The Eocene-Oligocene transition: a review of marine and terrestrial proxy data, models and model-data comparisons"
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 18-05-2020
Climate sensitivity and meridional overturning circulation in the late Eocene using GFDL CM2.1
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 09-01-2018
DOI: 10.5194/CP-2017-161
Abstract: Abstract. The Eocene–Oligocene Transition (EOT), approximately 34 Ma ago, is an interval of great interest in Earth's climate history, due to the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet and major global cooling at the time. Climate simulations of the transition are needed to help us interpret proxy data, test mechanistic hypotheses for the transition, and determine the climate sensitivity at the time. However, model studies of the EOT thus far typically employ control states designed for a different time period, or ocean resolution on the order of 3 degrees. Here we developed a new higher resolution paleoclimate model configuration based on the GFDL CM2.1 climate model adapted to a late Eocene (38 Ma) paleogeography reconstruction. We employ an ocean resolution of 1 × 1.5 degrees, and an atmosphere resolution of 3 × 3.75 degrees. This represents a significant step forward in resolving the ocean geography, gateways and circulation in a coupled climate model of this period. We simulate the model under 3 different levels of CO2 400, 800 and 1600 ppm. The model exhibits relatively high sensitivity to CO2 compared with other recent model studies, and thus can capture the expected Eocene high latitude warmth within observed estimates of atmospheric CO2. However, the model does not capture the low meridional temperature gradient seen in proxies. Equatorial sea surface temperatures are too high in the model (30–37 degrees C) compared with observations (max 32 degrees C), though observations are lacking in the warmest regions of the western Pacific. The model exhibits robust bipolar sinking in the North Pacific and Southern Ocean, which persists under all levels of CO2. North Atlantic salinities are too fresh to permit sinking (25–30 psu), due to surface transport from the very fresh Arctic (~ 20 psu), whose salinities approximately agree with Eocene proxy estimates. North Atlantic salinity increases by 1–2 psu when CO2 is halved, and similarly freshens when CO2 is doubled, due to changes in the hydrological cycle.
Sea surface temperature evolution of the North Atlantic Ocean across the Eocene–Oligocene transition
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-01-2023
Abstract: Abstract. A major step in the long-term Cenozoic evolution toward a glacially driven climate occurred at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT), ∼34.44 to 33.65 million years ago (Ma). Evidence for high-latitude cooling and increased latitudinal temperature gradients across the EOT has been found in a range of marine and terrestrial environments. However, the timing and magnitude of temperature change in the North Atlantic remains highly unconstrained. Here, we use two independent organic geochemical palaeothermometers to reconstruct sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the southern Labrador Sea (Ocean Drilling Program – ODP Site 647) across the EOT. The new SST records, now the most detailed for the North Atlantic through the 1 Myr leading up to the EOT onset, reveal a distinctive cooling step of ∼3 ∘C (from 27 to 24 ∘C), between 34.9 and 34.3 Ma, which is ∼500 kyr prior to Antarctic glaciation. This cooling step, when compared visually to other SST records, is asynchronous across Atlantic sites, signifying considerable spatiotemporal variability in regional SST evolution. However, overall, it fits within a phase of general SST cooling recorded across sites in the North Atlantic in the 5 Myr bracketing the EOT. Such cooling might be unexpected in light of proxy and modelling studies suggesting the start-up of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) before the EOT, which should warm the North Atlantic. Results of an EOT modelling study (GFDL CM2.1) help reconcile this, finding that a reduction in atmospheric CO2 from 800 to 400 ppm may be enough to counter the warming from an AMOC start-up, here simulated through Arctic–Atlantic gateway closure. While the model simulations applied here are not yet in full equilibrium, and the experiments are idealised, the results, together with the proxy data, highlight the heterogeneity of basin-scale surface ocean responses to the EOT thermohaline changes, with sharp temperature contrasts expected across the northern North Atlantic as positions of the subtropical and subpolar gyre systems shift. Suggested future work includes increasing spatial coverage and resolution of regional SST proxy records across the North Atlantic to identify likely thermohaline fingerprints of the EOT AMOC start-up, as well as critical analysis of the causes of inter-model responses to help better understand the driving mechanisms.
The relationship between the global mean deep-sea and surface temperature during the Early Eocene
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 31-08-2022
The relationship between the global mean deep-sea and surface temperature during the Early Eocene
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 25-08-2022
Meridional Heat Transport in the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: non-CO2 and CO2 effects
Publisher: Authorea, Inc.
Date: 10-12-2022
DOI: 10.22541/ESSOAR.167065777.72214683/V1
Abstract: The total meridional heat transport (MHT) is relatively stable across different climates. Nevertheless, the strength of in idual processes contributing to the total transport are not stable. Here we investigate the MHT and its main components especially in the atmosphere, in five coupled climate model simulations from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). These simulations target the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), a geological time period with high CO2 concentrations, analogous to the upper range of end-of-century CO2 projections. Preindustrial and early Eocene simulations at a range of CO2 levels (1x, 3x and 6x preindustrial values) are used to quantify the MHT changes in response to both CO2 and non-CO2 related forcings. We found that atmospheric poleward heat transport increases with CO2, while the effect of non-CO2 boundary conditions (e.g., paleogeography, land ice, vegetation) is causing more poleward atmospheric heat transport on the Northern and less on the Southern Hemisphere. The changes in paleogeography increase the heat transport via transient eddies at the mid-latitudes in the Eocene. The Hadley cells have an asymmetric response to both the CO2 and non-CO2 constraints. The poleward latent heat transport of monsoon systems increases with rising CO2 concentrations, but this effect is offset by the Eocene topography. Our results show that the changes in the monsoon systems’ latent heat transport is a robust feature of CO2 warming, which is in line with the currently observed precipitation increase of present day monsoon systems.
Meridional Heat Transport in the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: non-CO2 and CO2 effects
Publisher: Authorea, Inc.
Date: 02-2023
DOI: 10.22541/ESSOAR.167065777.72214683/V2
Abstract: The total meridional heat transport (MHT) is relatively stable across different climates. Nevertheless, the strength of in idual processes contributing to the total transport are not stable. Here we investigate the MHT and its main components especially in the atmosphere, in five coupled climate model simulations from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). These simulations target the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), a geological time period with high CO2 concentrations, analogous to the upper range of end-of-century CO2 projections. Preindustrial and early Eocene simulations at a range of CO2 levels (1x, 3x and 6x preindustrial values) are used to quantify the MHT changes in response to both CO2 and non-CO2 related forcings. We found that atmospheric poleward heat transport increases with CO2, while the effect of non-CO2 boundary conditions (e.g., paleogeography, land ice, vegetation) is causing more poleward atmospheric heat transport on the Northern and less on the Southern Hemisphere. The changes in paleogeography increase the heat transport via transient eddies at the mid-latitudes in the Eocene. The Hadley cells have an asymmetric response to both the CO2 and non-CO2 constraints. The poleward latent heat transport of monsoon systems increases with rising CO2 concentrations, but this effect is offset by the Eocene topography. Our results show that the changes in the monsoon systems’ latent heat transport is a robust feature of CO2 warming, which is in line with the currently observed precipitation increase of present day monsoon systems.
Proxy-Model Comparison for the Eocene-Oligocene Transition in Southern High Latitudes
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 16-12-2022
DOI: 10.1002/ESSOAR.10511735.2
Abstract: The Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT) marks the shift from greenhouse to icehouse conditions at 34 Ma, when a permanent ice sheet developed on Antarctica. Climate modeling studies have recently assessed the drivers of the transition globally. Here we revisit those experiments for a detailed study of the southern high latitudes in comparison to the growing number of mean annual sea surface temperature (SST) and mean air temperature (MAT) proxy reconstructions, allowing us to assess proxy-model temperature agreement and refine estimates for the magnitude of the p CO forcing of the EOT. We compile and update published proxy temperature records on and around Antarctica for the late Eocene (38-34 Ma) and early Oligocene (34-30 Ma). Compiled SST proxies cool by up to 3°C and MAT by up to 4°C between the timeslices. Proxy data were compared to previous climate model simulations representing pre- and post-EOT, typically forced with a halving of p CO. We scaled the model outputs to identify the magnitude of p CO change needed to drive a commensurate change in temperature to best fit the temperature proxies. The multi-model ensemble needs a 30 or 33% decrease in p CO, to best fit MAT or SST proxies respectively, a difference of just 3%. These proxy-model intercomparisons identify p CO as the primary forcing of EOT cooling, with a magnitude (-200 or -243 ppmv) approaching that of the p CO proxies (-150 ppmv). However in idual model estimates span -66 to -375 ppmv, thus proxy-model uncertainties are dominated by model ergence.
Proxy-Model Comparison for the Eocene-Oligocene Transition in Southern High Latitudes
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 30-06-2022
On the inter-connectivity of volume transports through Arctic Straits
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 23-03-2020
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU2020-8569
Abstract: & & & span& Arctic heat and freshwater budgets are highly sensitive to volume transports through Arctic-Subarctic straits. Here we investigate how the volume transports through these straits adjust to each other to maintain a mass balance in the Arctic on annual timescales. To this end, we use three models two coupled global climate models, one with a third-degree horizontal ocean resolution (HiGEM1.1) and one with a twelfth-degree horizontal ocean resolution (HadGEM3), and one ocean-only model with an idealized polar basin (tenth-degree horizontal resolution). The two global climate models indicate that there is a strong anti-correlation between the Bering Strait throughflow and the transport through the Nordic Seas, a second strong anti-correlation between the transport through the Canadian Artic Archipelago (CAA) and the Nordic Seas transport, and a third strong anti-correlation between the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea throughflows. We find that part of the strait correlations is due to the strait transports being coincidentally driven by large-scale atmospheric forcing patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation. However, there is also a role for fast wave adjustments of some straits flows to perturbations in other straits since atmospheric forcing of in idual strait flows alone cannot lead to near mass balance fortuitously every year. Idealized experiments with an ocean model (NEMO3.6) that investigate such causal strait relations suggest that perturbations in the Bering Strait are compensated preferentially in the Fram Strait due to the narrowness of the western Arctic shelf and the deeper depth of the Fram Strait. & /span& & &
DeepMIP: model intercomparison of early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO) large-scale climate features and comparison with proxy data
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-01-2021
Abstract: Abstract. We present results from an ensemble of eight climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, ∼ 50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP www.deepmip.org, last access: 10 January 2021) thus, all models have been configured with the same paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO2 boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5 ∘C to Eocene warmth. Compared with results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations generally show a reduced spread of the global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble for a given atmospheric CO2 concentration as well as an increased climate sensitivity on average. An energy balance analysis of the model ensemble indicates that global mean warming in the Eocene compared with the preindustrial period mostly arises from decreases in emissivity due to the elevated CO2 concentration (and associated water vapour and long-wave cloud feedbacks), whereas the reduction in the Eocene in terms of the meridional temperature gradient is primarily due to emissivity and albedo changes owing to the non-CO2 boundary conditions (i.e. the removal of the Antarctic ice sheet and changes in vegetation). Three of the models (the Community Earth System Model, CESM the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, model and the Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM) show results that are consistent with the proxies in terms of the global mean temperature, meridional SST gradient, and CO2, without prescribing changes to model parameters. In addition, many of the models agree well with the first-order spatial patterns in the SST proxies. However, at a more regional scale, the models lack skill. In particular, the modelled anomalies are substantially lower than those indicated by the proxies in the southwest Pacific here, modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are more consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying a possible inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxies or models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large-scale features and model–data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for ex le the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability, and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography, orbital configuration, and aerosols.
Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the Eocene Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project: thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-8420
Abstract: The early Eocene greenhouse climate driven by high atmospheric CO2 concentrations serves as a testbed for future climate changes dominated by increasing CO2 forcing. Especially, the early Eocene Arctic region is important in light of future CO2-driven climate warming in the northern polar region. Here, we present early Eocene Arctic sea ice simulations carried out by coupled climate models within the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project. We find differences in sea ice responses to CO2 changes across the ensemble and compare the results with existing proxy-based sea ice reconstructions from the Arctic Ocean. Most of the models simulate winter sea ice presence at high CO2 levels (& #8805 840 ppmv = 3x pre-industrial (PI) level of 280 ppmv). However, the threshold when sea ice permanently disappears from the ocean varies significantly between the models (from 840 ppmv to 1680 ppmv). Based on a one-dimensional energy balance model analysis we find that the greenhouse effect plays an important role in the inter-model spread in Arctic winter surface temperature changes in response to a CO2 rise from 1x to 3x the PI level. We link this greenhouse effect to increased atmospheric water vapour concentration. Furthermore, differences in simulated surface salinity in the Arctic Ocean play an important role in controlling local sea ice formation. These inter-model differences result from differences in the exchange of waters between a brackish Arctic and a more saline North Atlantic Ocean that are controlled by the width of the gateway between both basins. As there is no geological evidence for Arctic sea ice in the early Eocene, its presence in most of the simulations with 3x PI CO2 level indicates either a higher CO2 level and/or models miss important mechanism/feedback.
Interhemispheric Asymmetry of Warming in an Eddy-Permitting Coupled Sector Model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-09-2015
Abstract: Climate model projections and observations show a faster rate of warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH). This asymmetry is partly due to faster rates of warming over the land than the ocean, and partly due to the ocean circulation redistributing heat toward the NH. This study examines the interhemispheric warming asymmetry in an intermediate complexity coupled climate model with eddy-permitting (0.25°) ocean resolution, and results are compared with a similar model with coarse (1°) ocean resolution. The models use a pole-to-pole 60° wide sector domain in the ocean and a 120° wide sector in the atmosphere, with Atlantic-like bathymetry and a simple land model. There is a larger high-latitude ocean temperature asymmetry in the 0.25° model compared with the 1° model, both in equilibrated control runs and in response to greenhouse warming. The larger warming asymmetry is caused by greater melting of NH sea ice in the 0.25° model, associated with faster, less viscous boundary currents transporting heat northward. The SH sea ice and heat transport response is relatively insensitive to the resolution change, since the eddy heat transport differences between the models are small compared with the mean flow heat transport. When a wind shift and intensification is applied in these warming scenarios, the warming asymmetry is further enhanced, with greater upwelling of cool water in the Southern Ocean and enhanced warming in the NH. Surface air temperatures show a substantial but lesser degree of high-latitude warming asymmetry, reflecting the sea surface warming patterns over the ocean but warming more symmetrically over the land regions.
Pleistocene glacial history of the New Zealand subantarctic islands
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 25-05-2018
DOI: 10.5194/CP-2018-52
Abstract: Abstract. The New Zealand subantarctic islands of Auckland and C bell, situated between the Subtropical Front and the Antarctic Convergence in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, provide valuable terrestrial records from a globally-important climatic region. Whilst the islands show clear evidence of past glaciation, the timing and mechanisms behind Pleistocene environmental and climate changes remain uncertain. Here we present a multidisciplinary study of the islands – including marine and terrestrial geomorphological surveys, extensive analyses of sedimentary sequences, a comprehensive dating program, and glacier flowline modelling – to investigate multiple phases of glaciation across the islands. We find evidence that the Auckland Islands hosted a small ice cap at 384,000 ± 26,000 years ago (384 ± 26 ka), most likely during Marine Isotope Stage 10, a period when the Subtropical Front was pushed northwards by seven degrees, and consistent with hemispheric-wide glacial expansion. Despite previous interpretations that suggest the maximum glacial extent occurred in the form of valley glaciation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM ~ 21 ka) age, our combined approach suggests minimal LGM glaciation across the New Zealand Subantarctic Islands, and that no glaciers were present during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR ~ 15–13 ka). Instead, our flowline modelling, constrained by field evidence, implies that despite a regional mean annual air temperature depression of ~ 5 °C during the LGM, a combination of high seasonality and low precipitation left the islands incapable of sustaining significant glaciation. We suggest that northwards expansion of winter sea ice during the LGM and subsequent ACR led to precipitation starvation across the mid to high latitudes of the Southern Ocean, resulting in restricted glaciation of the subantarctic islands.
Rapid global ocean-atmosphere response to Southern Ocean freshening during the last glacial
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-09-2017
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-017-00577-6
Abstract: Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperatures during the last glacial period (115,000 to 11,650 years ago) are thought to have been driven by imbalances in the rates of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the ‘bipolar seesaw’). Here we exploit a bidecadally resolved 14 C data set obtained from New Zealand kauri ( Agathis australis ) to undertake high-precision alignment of key climate data sets spanning iceberg-rafted debris event Heinrich 3 and Greenland Interstadial (GI) 5.1 in the North Atlantic (~30,400 to 28,400 years ago). We observe no ergence between the kauri and Atlantic marine sediment 14 C data sets, implying limited changes in deep water formation. However, a Southern Ocean (Atlantic-sector) iceberg rafted debris event appears to have occurred synchronously with GI-5.1 warming and decreased precipitation over the western equatorial Pacific and Atlantic. An ensemble of transient meltwater simulations shows that Antarctic-sourced salinity anomalies can generate climate changes that are propagated globally via an atmospheric Rossby wave train.
Simulating Miocene warmth: insights from an opportunistic Multi-Model ensemble (MioMIP1)
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-01-2021
The Eocene-Oligocene transition: a review of marine and terrestrial proxy data, models and model-data comparisons
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 18-05-2020
DOI: 10.5194/CP-2020-68
Abstract: Abstract. The Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) from a largely ice-free greenhouse world to an icehouse climate with the first major glaciation of Antarctica was a phase of major climate and environmental change occurring ~34 million years ago (Ma) and lasting ~500 kyr. The change is marked by a global shift in deep sea δ18O representing a combination of deep-ocean cooling and global ice sheet growth. At the same time, multiple independent proxies for sea surface temperature indicate a surface ocean cooling, and major changes in global fauna and flora record a shift toward more cold-climate adapted species. The major explanations of this transition that have been suggested are a decline in atmospheric CO2, and changes to ocean gateways, while orbital forcing likely influenced the precise timing of the glaciation. This work reviews and synthesises proxy evidence of paleogeography, temperature, ice sheets, ocean circulation, and CO2 change from the marine and terrestrial realms. Furthermore, we quantitatively compare proxy records of change to an ensemble of model simulations of temperature change across the EOT. The model simulations compare three forcing mechanisms across the EOT: CO2 decrease, paleogeographic changes, and ice sheet growth. We find that CO2 forcing provides by far the best explanation of the combined proxy evidence, and based on our model ensemble, we estimate that a CO2 decrease of about 1.6× across the EOT (e.g. from 910 to 560 ppmv) achieves the best fit to the temperature change recorded in the proxies. This model-derived CO2 decrease is consistent with proxy estimates of CO2 decline at the EOT.
Climate sensitivity and meridional overturning circulation in the late Eocene using GFDL CM2.1
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-06-2018
Abstract: Abstract. The Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT), which took place approximately 34 Ma ago, is an interval of great interest in Earth's climate history, due to the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet and major global cooling. Climate simulations of the transition are needed to help interpret proxy data, test mechanistic hypotheses for the transition and determine the climate sensitivity at the time. However, model studies of the EOT thus far typically employ control states designed for a different time period, or ocean resolution on the order of 3∘. Here we developed a new higher resolution palaeoclimate model configuration based on the GFDL CM2.1 climate model adapted to a late Eocene (38 Ma) palaeogeography reconstruction. The ocean and atmosphere horizontal resolutions are 1∘ × 1.5∘ and 3∘ × 3.75∘ respectively. This represents a significant step forward in resolving the ocean geography, gateways and circulation in a coupled climate model of this period. We run the model under three different levels of atmospheric CO2: 400, 800 and 1600 ppm. The model exhibits relatively high sensitivity to CO2 compared with other recent model studies, and thus can capture the expected Eocene high latitude warmth within observed estimates of atmospheric CO2. However, the model does not capture the low meridional temperature gradient seen in proxies. Equatorial sea surface temperatures are too high in the model (30–37 ∘C) compared with observations (max 32 ∘C), although observations are lacking in the warmest regions of the western Pacific. The model exhibits bipolar sinking in the North Pacific and Southern Ocean, which persists under all levels of CO2. North Atlantic surface salinities are too fresh to permit sinking (25–30 psu), due to surface transport from the very fresh Arctic (∼ 20 psu), where surface salinities approximately agree with Eocene proxy estimates. North Atlantic salinity increases by 1–2 psu when CO2 is halved, and similarly freshens when CO2 is doubled, due to changes in the hydrological cycle.
The impact of Southern Ocean bathymetry on the ocean circulation and the overlying atmosphere
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-03-2022
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU22-9044
Abstract: & & Southern Ocean bathymetry constrains the path of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), but the bathymetric influence on the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is poorly understood. Here, we investigate this impact by respectively flattening large topographic barriers around the Kerguelen Plateau, C bell Plateau, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and Drake Passage in four simulations in a coupled climate model. The barriers impact both the barotropic and baroclinic forcing of the ACC, which increases by between 3% and 14% when barriers are removed in idually and by 56% when all barriers are removed simultaneously. The removal of Kerguelen Plateau bathymetry increases convection south of the plateau and the removal of Drake Passage bathymetry reduces convection upstream in the Ross Sea, affecting the deep overturning cell. When the barriers are removed, zonal flattening of the currents leads to SST anomalies upstream and downstream of their locations. These SST anomalies strongly correlate to precipitation in the overlying atmosphere, with correlation coefficients ranging between r=0.92 and r=0.97 in the four experiments. Windspeed anomalies are also positively correlated to SST anomalies in some locations but other forcing factors obscure this correlation in general. The meridional variability in the wind stress curl contours over the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the Kerguelen Plateau and the C bell Plateau disappears when these barriers are removed, confirming the impact of bathymetry on overlying winds. However, bathymetry-induced wind changes are too small to affect the overall wave-3 asymmetry in the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies. Removal of Southern Hemisphere orography is also inconsequential to the wave-3 pattern, suggestion a remote control.& &
Interconnectivity Between Volume Transports Through Arctic Straits
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 12-2018
DOI: 10.1029/2018JC014320
Obliquity control on Southern Hemisphere climate during the last glacial
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-06-2015
DOI: 10.1038/SREP11673
Abstract: Recent paleoclimate reconstructions have challenged the traditional view that Northern Hemisphere insolation and associated feedbacks drove synchronous global climate and ice-sheet volume during the last glacial cycle. Here we focus on the response of the Patagonian Ice Sheet and demonstrate that its maximum expansion culminated at 28,400 ± 500 years before present (28.4 ± 0.5 ka), more than 5,000 years before the minima in 65°N summer insolation and the formally-defined Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) at 21,000 ± 2,000 years before present. To investigate the potential drivers of this early LGM (eLGM), we simulate the effects of orbital changes using a suite of climate models incorporating prescribed and evolving sea-ice anomalies. Our analyses suggest that Antarctic sea-ice expansion at 28.5 ka altered the location and intensity of the Southern Hemisphere storm track, triggering regional cooling over Patagonia of 5°C that extends across the wider mid-southern latitudes. In contrast, at the LGM, continued sea-ice expansion reduced regional temperature and precipitation further, effectively starving the ice sheet and resulting in reduced glacial expansion. Our findings highlight the dominant role that orbital changes can play in driving Southern Hemisphere glacial climate via the sensitivity of mid-latitude regions to changes in Antarctic sea-ice extent.
The Effects of Mesoscale Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling on the Large-Scale Ocean Circulation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2009
Abstract: Small-scale variation in wind stress due to ocean–atmosphere interaction within the atmospheric boundary layer alters the temporal and spatial scale of Ekman pumping driving the double-gyre circulation of the ocean. A high-resolution quasigeostrophic (QG) ocean model, coupled to a dynamic atmospheric mixed layer, is used to demonstrate that, despite the small spatial scale of the Ekman-pumping anomalies, this phenomenon significantly modifies the large-scale ocean circulation. The primary effect is to decrease the strength of the nonlinear component of the gyre circulation by approximately 30%–40%. This result is due to the highest transient Ekman-pumping anomalies destabilizing the flow in a dynamically sensitive region close to the western boundary current separation. The instability of the jet produces a flux of potential vorticity between the two gyres that acts to weaken both gyres.
Obliquity-driven expansion of North Atlantic sea ice during the last glacial
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 10-12-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066344
Sea surface temperature evolution of the North Atlantic Ocean across the Eocene-Oligocene Transition
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 25-01-2022
DOI: 10.5194/CP-2021-184
Abstract: Abstract. A major step in the long-term Cenozoic evolution toward a glacially-driven climate occurred at the Eocene Oligocene Transition (EOT), ~34.44 to 33.65 million years ago (Ma). Evidence for high latitude cooling and increased latitudinal temperature gradients across the EOT has been found in a range of marine and terrestrial environments. However, the timing and magnitude of temperature change in the North Atlantic remains highly unconstrained. Here, we use two independent organic geochemical paleo-thermometers to reconstruct sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the southern Labrador Sea (Ocean Drilling Program – ODP Site 647) across the EOT. We find a permanent cooling step of ~3 °C (from 27 to 24 °C), between 34.9 Ma and 34.3 Ma, which is ~500 kyr prior to Antarctic glaciation. This step in SST values is asynchronous across Atlantic sites, signifiying considerable spatiotemporal variability in SST evolution. However, it is part of an overall cooling observed across sites in the North Atlantic (NA) in the 5 million years bracketing the EOT. Such cooling is unexpected in light of proxy and modelling studies suggesting the startup or strengething of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) before the EOT, which would warm the NA, although parallel Eocene CO2 decline on the decent into the Oligocene icehouse might counter this feedback. Here we show, using a published modelling study, that a reduction in atmospheric CO2 from 800 to 400 ppm is not sufficient to produce the observed cooling, if combined with NA warming from an AMOC startup, simulated here through Arctic closure from the Atlantic. Possible explanations of the apparent discrepancy are discussed and include uncertainty in the SST data, paleogeography and atmospheric CO2 boundary conditions, model weaknesses, and an earlier AMOC startup that just strengthened at the EOT. The results highlight the remaining uncertainty in many aspects of data and modelling results which need to be improved before we can draw robust conclusions of the processes acting before and across the EOT.
Remote Sensing Measures Restoration Successes, but Canopy Heights Lag in Restoring Floodplain Vegetation
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 24-06-2016
DOI: 10.3390/RS8070542
Meridional Heat Transport in the DeepMIP Eocene Ensemble: Non‐CO2 and CO2 Effects
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 08-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2022PA004607
Abstract: The total meridional heat transport (MHT) is relatively stable across different climates. Nevertheless, the strength of in idual processes contributing to the total transport are not stable. Here we investigate the MHT and its main components especially in the atmosphere, in five coupled climate model simulations from the Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). These simulations target the early Eocene climatic optimum, a geological time period with high CO 2 concentrations, analog to the upper range of end‐of‐century CO 2 projections. Preindustrial and early Eocene simulations, at a range of CO 2 levels are used to quantify the MHT changes in response to both CO 2 and non‐CO 2 related forcings. We found that atmospheric poleward heat transport increases with CO 2 , while oceanic poleward heat transport decreases. The non‐CO 2 boundary conditions cause more MHT toward the South Pole, mainly through an increase in the southward oceanic heat transport. The changes in paleogeography increase the heat transport via transient eddies at the northern mid‐latitudes in the Eocene. The Eocene Hadley cells do not transport more heat poleward, but due to the warmer atmosphere, especially the northern cell, circulate more heat in the tropics, than today. The monsoon systems' poleward latent heat transport increases with rising CO 2 concentrations, but this change is counterweighted by the globally smaller Eocene monsoon area. Our results show that the changes in the monsoon systems' latent heat transport is a robust feature of CO 2 warming, which is in line with the currently observed precipitation increase of present day monsoon systems.
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