ORCID Profile
0000-0001-9696-2930
Current Organisation
University of New South Wales
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Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2015GB005207
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-10-2023
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 22-02-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL090849
Abstract: The Southern Hemisphere (SH) surface westerlies fundamentally control regional patterns of air temperature, storm tracks, and precipitation while also regulating ocean circulation, heat transport and carbon uptake. Wind‐forced ocean perturbation experiments commonly apply idealized poleward wind shifts ranging between 0.5 and 10 degrees of latitude and wind intensification factors of between 10% and 300%. In addition, changes in winds are often prescribed ad hoc as a zonally uniform anomaly that neglects important regional and seasonal differences. Here we quantify historical and projected SH westerly wind changes based on examination of CMIP5, CMIP6, and reanalysis data. We find a significant reduction in the location bias of the CMIP6 ensemble and an associated reduction in the projected poleward shift compared to CMIP5. Under a high emission scenario, we find a projected end of 21st Century ensemble mean wind increase of ∼10% and a poleward shift of ∼0.8° latitude, although there are important seasonal and regional variations.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 15-07-1997
DOI: 10.1029/97JC00438
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2008
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-09-2006
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3843.1
Abstract: The coupled ocean–atmosphere–ice response to variations in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is examined in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Coupled Climate Model (version 2). The model shows considerable skill in capturing the predominantly zonally symmetric SAM while regional deviations between model and observation SAM winds go a long way in explaining the generally small differences between simulated and observed SAM responses in the ocean and sea ice systems. Vacillations in the position and strength of the circumpolar winds and the ensuing variations in advection of heat and moisture result in a dynamic and thermodynamic forcing of the ocean and sea ice. Both meridional and zonal components of ocean circulation are modified through Ekman transport, which in turn leads to anomalous surface convergences and ergences that strongly affect the meridional overturning circulation and potentially the pathways of intermediate water ventilation. A heat budget analysis demonstrates a conspiring of oceanic meridional heat advection, surface heat fluxes, and changes in mixed layer depth, which acts in phase to imprint a strong circumpolar SAM signature onto sea surface temperatures (SSTs), while other oceanic processes, including vertical advection, are shown to play only a minor role in contrast to previous suggestions. Lagged correlations show that although the SAM is mainly controlled by internal atmospheric mechanisms, the thermal inertia of the ocean reimprints the SAM signature back onto surface air temperatures (SATs) on time scales longer than the initial atmospheric signal. Sea ice variability is well explained by a combination of atmospheric and oceanic dynamic and thermodynamic forcing, and by an albedo feedback mechanism that allows ice extent anomalies to persist for many months. Nonzonally symmetric components of the SAM winds, particularly in the region surrounding the Antarctic Peninsula, have important effects for other climate variables.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-08-2014
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-2008
DOI: 10.1029/2008GL033236
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 21-10-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074509
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-2017
Abstract: During the mature phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events there is a southward shift of anomalous zonal winds (SWS), which has been suggested to play a role in the seasonal phase locking of ENSO. Motivated by the fact that coupled climate models tend to underestimate this feature, this study examines the representation of the SWS in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is found that most models successfully reproduce the observed SWS, although the magnitude of the zonal wind stress anomaly is underestimated. Several significant differences between the models with and without the SWS are identified including biases in the magnitude and spatial distribution of precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO. Multiple-linear regression analysis suggests that the climatological meridional SST gradient as well as anomalous ENSO-driven convective activity over the northwest Pacific both might play a role in controlling the SWS. While the models that capture the SWS also simulate many more strong El Niño and La Niña events peaking at the correct time of year, the overall seasonal synchronization is still underestimated in these models. This is attributed to underestimated changes in warm water volume (WWV) during moderate El Niño events so that these events display relatively poor seasonal synchronization. Thus, while the SWS is an important metric, it is ultimately the magnitude and zonal extent of the wind changes that accompany this SWS that drive the changes in WWV and prime the system for termination.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-06-2016
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 14-01-2014
Abstract: Abstract. Millennial-scale variability associated with Dansgaard–Oeschger events is arguably one of the most puzzling climate phenomena ever discovered in paleoclimate archives. Here, we set out to elucidate the underlying dynamics by conducting a transient global hindcast simulation with a 3-D intermediate complexity earth system model covering the period 50 to 30 ka BP. The model is forced by time-varying external boundary conditions (greenhouse gases, orbital forcing, and ice-sheet orography and albedo) and anomalous North Atlantic freshwater fluxes, which mimic the effects of changing northern hemispheric ice volume on millennial timescales. Together these forcings generate a realistic global climate trajectory, as demonstrated by an extensive model aleo data comparison. Our results are consistent with the idea that variations in ice-sheet calving and subsequent changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation were the main drivers for the continuum of glacial millennial-scale variability seen in paleorecords across the globe.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 25-08-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022GL098820
Abstract: Surface winds around the Antarctic continent control coupled ocean‐ice processes that influence the climate system, including bottom water production, heat transport onto the continental shelf and sea ice coverage. However, few studies have examined projected changes in these winds, even though it would aid in the interpretation and understanding of the ocean's response to climate change. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and reanalysis data, we show a significant reduction in the near‐Antarctic surface winds throughout the historical period that continues until the end of the twenty‐first century, amounting to 23% and 7% for the easterly and southerly wind components respectively under the high emission scenario. The most intense weakening happens during the summer season. We find that the weakening is coherent with the trend toward a positive Southern Annular Mode and a reduction of the pole‐to‐coast meridional pressure gradient, which we term Antarctic Annular Index.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-07-2011
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018JC014227
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-12-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL085160
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 28-04-2013
DOI: 10.1002/GRL.50341
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-06-2011
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-2009
DOI: 10.1029/2009GL038416
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 22-06-2018
Abstract: In this paper we examine various options for the calculation of the forced signal in climate model simulations, and the impact these choices have on the estimates of internal variability. We find that an ensemble mean of runs from a single climate model [a single model ensemble mean (SMEM)] provides a good estimate of the true forced signal even for models with very few ensemble members. In cases where only a single member is available for a given model, however, the SMEM from other models is in general out-performed by the scaled ensemble mean from all available climate model simulations [the multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM)]. The scaled MMEM may therefore be used as an estimate of the forced signal for observations. The MMEM method, however, leads to increasing errors further into the future, as the different rates of warming in the models causes their trajectories to erge. We therefore apply the SMEM method to those models with a sufficient number of ensemble members to estimate the change in the litude of internal variability under a future forcing scenario. In line with previous results, we find that on average the surface air temperature variability decreases at higher latitudes, particularly over the ocean along the sea ice margins, while variability in precipitation increases on average, particularly at high latitudes. Variability in sea level pressure decreases on average in the Southern Hemisphere, while in the Northern Hemisphere there are regional differences.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-06-2010
Abstract: The genesis of mixed layer temperature anomalies across the Indian Ocean are analyzed in terms of the underlying heat budget components. Observational data, for which a seasonal budget can be computed, and a climate model output, which provides improved spatial and temporal coverage for longer time scales, are examined. The seasonal climatology of the model heat budget is broadly consistent with the observational reconstruction, thus providing certain confidence in extending the model analysis to interannual time scales. To identify the dominant heat budget components, covariance analysis is applied based on the heat budget equation. In addition, the role of the heat budget terms on the generation and decay of temperature anomalies is revealed via a novel temperature variance budget approach. The seasonal evolution of the mixed layer temperature is found to be largely controlled by air–sea heat fluxes, except in the tropics where advection and entrainment are important. A distinct shift in the importance and role of certain heat budget components is shown to be apparent in moving from seasonal to interannual time scales. On these longer time scales, advection gains importance in generating and sustaining anomalies over extensive regions, including the trade wind and midlatitude wind regimes. On the other hand, air–sea heat fluxes tend to drive the evolution of thermal anomalies over subtropical regions including off northwestern Australia. In the tropics, however, they limit the growth of anomalies. Entrainment plays a role in the generation and maintenance of interannual anomalies over localized regions, particularly off Sumatra and over the Seychelles–Chagos Thermocline Ridge. It is further shown that the spatial distribution of the role and importance of these terms is related to oceanographic features of the Indian Ocean. Mixed layer depth effects and the influence of model biases are discussed.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-2012
Abstract: Meridional heat transport (MHT) in the Southern Ocean (SO) and its components are analyzed with two eddy-permitting climate models. The two models present a consistent picture of the MHT response to projected twenty-first-century changes in SO winds. In agreement with a recent analysis based on an ocean data synthesis product, much of the MHT in the SO is found to be due to the time-mean fields of meridional velocity and temperature. The change in the net MHT tends to be small relative to the interannual variability at most SO latitudes. However, both models exhibit significant changes at most latitudes south of 30°S in in idual components of MHT. A simple framework wherein changes in the eddy and mean heat transports tend to compensate each other is not supported by the authors’ results. Instead, the MHT response is composed of sizeable contributions from essentially all of the MHT components, with the eddy and mean heat transports often having the same sign.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 16-02-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091487
Abstract: The Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) is a distinctive feature of the Southern Hemisphere high latitude atmospheric circulation, regulating regional Antarctic climate, meridional heat transport, ocean circulation, and sea‐ice in the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Seas. Most previous research on the ASL has focused on its variability with only a few studies attempting to understand why the climatological ASL exists. These studies have proposed different hypotheses to explain the presence of the ASL, however, a clear understanding of the mechanisms responsible for the generation of the ASL remains uncertain. Here we use an atmospheric general circulation model to show that the ASL is a consequence of the interaction between Antarctic topography and the westerly wind jet, with negligible influence from low‐latitude teleconnections. A nonrotating fluid flow simulation further suggests that the ASL can be explained by flow separation resulting from the interaction of westerly winds with the topography of Antarctica.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 24-02-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2938
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 19-06-2017
DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2973
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-10-2013
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1726
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 21-05-2018
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 20-05-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL092752
Abstract: Understanding warming on the Antarctic shelf is critical for projecting changes in Antarctic ice shelves and ice sheets. Here we assess Antarctic Shelf Bottom Water (ASBW) temperature mean‐state and trends in CMIP6 models. While CMIP6 models do not resolve ice shelves, future shelf water warming will impact ice shelf vulnerability. The CMIP6 multi‐model mean zonal temperature structure and mean‐state ASBW spatial pattern resemble observations, although there is considerable spread across the models and a multi‐model mean warm bias. The multi‐model mean projects an average ASBW warming of 0.36°C (interdecile range 0.07°C–0.60°C) under SSP245 and 0.62°C (interdecile range 0.16°C–0.95°C) under SSP585 by 2100, emphasizing the influence future emissions have on shelf water warming around Antarctica. Changes in the transport of Circumpolar Deep Water onto the shelf associated with changes in the Southern Annular Mode, as well as Circumpolar Deep Water warming, are predicted to conspire to warm ASBW in the future.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-09-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3103
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 31-08-2020
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-2018
Abstract: The Southern Ocean surface has freshened in recent decades, increasing water column stability and reducing upwelling of warmer subsurface waters. The majority of CMIP5 models underestimate or fail to capture this historical surface freshening, yet little is known about the impact of this model bias on regional ocean circulation and hydrography. Here experiments are performed using a global coupled climate model with additional freshwater applied to the Southern Ocean to assess the influence of recent surface freshening. The simulations explore the impact of persistent and long-term broad-scale freshening as a result of processes including precipitation minus evaporation changes. Thus, unlike previous studies, the freshening is applied as far north as 55°S, beyond the Antarctic ice margin. It is found that imposing a large-scale surface freshening causes a surface cooling and sea ice increase under preindustrial conditions, because of a reduction in ocean convection and weakened entrainment of warm subsurface waters into the surface ocean. This is consistent with intermodel relationships between CMIP5 models and the simulations, suggesting that models with larger surface freshening also exhibit stronger surface cooling and increased sea ice. Additional experiments are conducted with surface salinity restoration applied to capture observed regional salinity trends. Remarkably, without any mechanical wind trend forcing, these simulations accurately represent the spatial pattern of observed surface temperature and sea ice trends around Antarctica. This study highlights the importance of accurately simulating changes in Southern Ocean salinity to capture changes in ocean circulation, sea surface temperature, and sea ice.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 19-10-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2021JD035023
Abstract: Recent work has suggested that tropical Pacific decadal variability and external forcings have had a comparable influence on the observed changes in the Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy‐driven jet over the satellite era. Here we contrast the zonally asymmetric response of the Southern Hemisphere eddy‐driven jet to tropical Pacific decadal variability by designing an atmosphere‐only PAC‐A experiment using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) and comparing it with the fully coupled Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1) tropical Pacific pacemaker (PAC‐C) experiments. In both frameworks, the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are identical (model climatology plus observed anomalies), which allows the PAC‐C and PAC‐A experiments to be used to estimate the impact of coupling on teleconnections from the tropical Pacific to the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. The observed summertime South Pacific jet intensification is reproduced in both coupled and uncoupled experiments, indicating that the central and eastern tropical Pacific (hereafter, tropical Pacific) SST impacts the South Pacific jet mainly via direct atmospheric teleconnections. By contrast, only the coupled PAC‐C captures the summertime poleward shift of the South Atlantic‐Indian jet, suggesting that air‐sea coupling is essential in driving the teleconnections between tropical Pacific SST anomalies and South Atlantic‐Indian jet variations.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 28-11-2016
Abstract: A strengthening of the Amundsen Sea low from 1979 to 2013 has been shown to largely explain the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice concentration in the eastern Ross Sea and decrease in the Bellingshausen Sea. Here it is shown that while these changes are not generally seen in freely running coupled climate model simulations, they are reproduced in simulations of two independent coupled climate models: one constrained by observed sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and the other by observed surface wind stress in the tropics. This analysis confirms previous results and strengthens the conclusion that the phase change in the interdecadal Pacific oscillation from positive to negative over 1979–2013 contributed to the observed strengthening of the Amundsen Sea low and the associated pattern of Antarctic sea ice change during this period. New support for this conclusion is provided by simulated trends in spatial patterns of sea ice concentrations that are similar to those observed. These results highlight the importance of accounting for teleconnections from low to high latitudes in both model simulations and observations of Antarctic sea ice variability and change.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-2011
Abstract: The subsurface variability of potential temperature and salinity south of Australia along 130°E is studied over a 25-yr period (1980–2004). The study is done with fields provided by a global eddy-permitting model of the DRAKKAR project forced by atmospheric reanalysis. The analysis performed by C. Sun and D. R. Watts with in situ hydrographic data is repeated. Sun and Watts have investigated the EOF modes in streamfunction space along the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) SR3 section. In particular, they found that an EOF mode, which they called the “pulsation mode,” strongly dominates subsurface thermohaline variations. Here, it is found that, in the model, an EOF mode with spatial structure similar to the Sun and Watts pulsation mode dominates subsurface thermohaline variations in streamfunction space. The mode displays a maximum of variability at the Subantarctic Front (SAF) between Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW). The associated time series exhibits an intermittent interseasonal frequency (3–6 months), especially during three periods (1983–84, 1990, and 1994–96). Some energy is also found with a 4-yr period. Further analyses reveal that the pulsation mode can also be observed in physical space. The pulsation mode is found to be related to movements of the SAF constrained by the bathymetry of the Southeast Indian Ridge. The pulsation mode displays many similarities with cold-core eddy events rather than being related to variations of the westerly wind stress, as previously proposed. The impact of those events on SAMW properties remains unclear.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-01-2015
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2492
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 21-02-2013
DOI: 10.1002/GRL.50136
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 28-05-2013
DOI: 10.1002/GRL.50498
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 29-06-2020
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 20-10-2020
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-88932/V1
Abstract: Oceanic eddies play a profound role in mixing tracers such as heat, carbon, and nutrients, thereby regulating regional and global climate. Yet, it remains unclear how global oceanic eddy kinetic energy has evolved over the past few decades. Furthermore, coupled climate model predictions generally fail to resolve oceanic mesoscale dynamics, which could limit their accuracy in simulating future climate change. Here we show a global statistically significant increase of the eddy activity using two independent observational datasets of mesoscale variability, one directly measuring currents and the other from sea surface temperature. Regions characterized by different dynamical processes show distinct evolution in the eddy field. For ex le, eddy-rich regions such as boundary current extensions and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current show a significant increase of 2% and 5% per decade in eddy activity, respectively. In contrast, most of the regions of observed decrease are found in the tropical oceans. Because eddies play a fundamental role in the ocean transport of heat, momentum, and carbon, our results have far-reaching implications for ocean circulation and climate, and the modelling platforms we use to study future climate change.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 21-10-2016
Abstract: Recent studies have highlighted the role of subsurface ocean dynamics in modulating eastern Pacific (EPac) hurricane activity on interannual time scales. In particular, the well-known El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) recharge–discharge mechanism has been suggested to provide a good understanding of the year-to-year variability of hurricane activity in this region. This paper investigates the influence of equatorial subsurface subannual and intraseasonal oceanic variability on tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the EPac. That is to say, it examines previously unexplored time scales, shorter than interannual, in an attempt to explain the variability not related to ENSO. Using ocean reanalysis products and TC best-track archive, the role of subannual and intraseasonal equatorial Kelvin waves (EKW) in modulating hurricane intensity in the EPac is examined. It is shown first that these planetary waves have a clear control on the subannual and intraseasonal variability of thermocline depth in the EPac cyclone-active region. This is found to affect ocean subsurface temperature, which in turn fuels hurricane intensification with a marked seasonal-phase locking. This mechanism of TC fueling, which explains up to 30% of the variability of TC activity unrelated to ENSO (around 15%–20% of the total variability), is embedded in the large-scale equatorial dynamics and therefore offers some predictability with lead time up to 3–4 months at seasonal and subseasonal time scales.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 2012
Abstract: Four versions of the same global climate model, one with horizontal resolution of 1.8° × 3.6° and three with 0.2° × 0.4°, are employed to evaluate the role of ocean bottom topography and viscosity on the spatial structure of the deep circulation. This study is motivated by several recent observational studies that find that subsurface floats injected near the western boundary of the Labrador Sea most often do not continuously follow the deep western boundary current (DWBC), in contrast to the traditional view that the deep water formed in the North Atlantic predominantly follows the DWBC. It is found that, with imposed large viscosity values, the model reproduces the traditional view. However, as viscosity is reduced and the model bathymetry resolution increased, much of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) separates from the western boundary and enters the low-latitude Atlantic via interior pathways distinct from the DWBC. It is shown that bottom pressure torques play an important role in maintaining these interior NADW outflows.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 04-2023
Abstract: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays a leading role in modulating wintertime climate over the North Atlantic and the surrounding continents of Europe and North America. Here we show that the observed evolution of the NAO displays larger multi-decadal variability than that simulated by nearly all CMIP6 models. To investigate the role of the NAO as a pacemaker of multi-decadal climate variability, we analyse simulations that are constrained to follow the observed NAO. We use a particle filter data-assimilation technique that sub-selects members that follow the observed NAO among an ensemble of simulations, as well as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode in a global climate model, without the use of nudging terms. Since the climate model also contains external forcings, these simulations can be used to compare the simulated forced response to the effect of the three assimilated modes. Concentrating on the 28 year periods of strongest observed NAO trends, we show that NAO variability leads to large multi-decadal trends in temperature and precipitation over Northern Hemisphere land as well as in sea-ice concentration. The Atlantic subpolar gyre region is particularly strongly influenced by the NAO, with links found to both concurrent atmospheric variability and to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Care thus needs to be taken to account for impacts of the NAO when using sea surface temperature in this region as a proxy for AMOC strength over decadal to multi-decadal time-scales. Our results have important implications for climate analyses of the North Atlantic region and highlight the need for further work to understand the causes of multi-decadal NAO variability.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 17-07-2017
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3335
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-06-2015
DOI: 10.1038/SREP11673
Abstract: Recent paleoclimate reconstructions have challenged the traditional view that Northern Hemisphere insolation and associated feedbacks drove synchronous global climate and ice-sheet volume during the last glacial cycle. Here we focus on the response of the Patagonian Ice Sheet and demonstrate that its maximum expansion culminated at 28,400 ± 500 years before present (28.4 ± 0.5 ka), more than 5,000 years before the minima in 65°N summer insolation and the formally-defined Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) at 21,000 ± 2,000 years before present. To investigate the potential drivers of this early LGM (eLGM), we simulate the effects of orbital changes using a suite of climate models incorporating prescribed and evolving sea-ice anomalies. Our analyses suggest that Antarctic sea-ice expansion at 28.5 ka altered the location and intensity of the Southern Hemisphere storm track, triggering regional cooling over Patagonia of 5°C that extends across the wider mid-southern latitudes. In contrast, at the LGM, continued sea-ice expansion reduced regional temperature and precipitation further, effectively starving the ice sheet and resulting in reduced glacial expansion. Our findings highlight the dominant role that orbital changes can play in driving Southern Hemisphere glacial climate via the sensitivity of mid-latitude regions to changes in Antarctic sea-ice extent.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-2014
DOI: 10.1002/JQS.2700
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-1992
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 28-05-2013
DOI: 10.1002/GRL.50483
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 06-2009
Abstract: This study investigates interseasonal and interevent variations in the impact of El Niño on Australian rainfall using available observations from the postsatellite era. Of particular interest is the difference in impact between classical El Niño events wherein peak sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies appear in the eastern Pacific and the recently termed El Niño “Modoki” events that are characterized by distinct warm SST anomalies in the central Pacific and weaker cold anomalies in the west and east of the basin. A clear interseasonal and interevent difference is apparent, with the maximum rainfall response for Modoki events occurring in austral autumn compared to austral spring for classical El Niños. Most interestingly, the Modoki and non-Modoki El Niño events exhibit a marked difference in rainfall impact over Australia: while classical El Niños are associated with a significant reduction in rainfall over northeastern and southeastern Australia, Modoki events appear to drive a large-scale decrease in rainfall over northwestern and northern Australia. In addition, rainfall variations during March–April–May are more sensitive to the Modoki SST anomaly pattern than the conventional El Niño anomalies to the east.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-08-2009
Abstract: Interannual rainfall variability over Tasmania is examined using observations and reanalysis data. Tasmanian rainfall is dominated by an east–west gradient of mean rainfall and variability. The Pacific–South American mode (PSA), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the southern annular mode (SAM) each show clear influences on the interannual variability of Tasmanian rainfall. Composites of rainfall during each phase of ENSO and the PSA suggest a notable islandwide influence of these climate modes on Tasmanian rainfall. In contrast, the positive phase of the SAM is associated with drier conditions over the west of the island. The PSA and the SAM project most prominently over the southwest of the island, whereas the ENSO signature is strongest in the north. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of rainfall over Tasmania show a leading mode (explaining 72% of total variance) of coherent islandwide in-phase anomalies with dominant periods of 2 and 5 yr. The second EOF accounts for ∼14% of total variation, characterized by out-of-phase east–west anomalies, which is likely a combination of all three modes. The EOF1 mode can be attributed to ENSO, the PSA, and to a lesser extent the SAM.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 2012
Abstract: This study examines criteria for the existence of two stable states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) using a combination of theory and simulations from a numerical coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model. By formulating a simple collection of state parameters and their relationships, the authors reconstruct the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) OFF state behavior under a varying external salt-flux forcing. This part (Part I) of the paper examines the steady-state solution, which gives insight into the mechanisms that sustain the NADW OFF state in this coupled model Part II deals with the transient behavior predicted by the evolution equation. The nonlinear behavior of the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) reverse cell is critical to the OFF state. Higher Atlantic salinity leads both to a reduced AAIW reverse cell and to a greater vertical salinity gradient in the South Atlantic. The former tends to reduce Atlantic salt export to the Southern Ocean, while the latter tends to increases it. These competing effects produce a nonlinear response of Atlantic salinity and salt export to salt forcing, and the existence of maxima in these quantities. Thus the authors obtain a natural and accurate analytical saddle-node condition for the maximal surface salt flux for which a NADW OFF state exists. By contrast, the bistability indicator proposed by De Vries and Weber does not generally work in this model. It is applicable only when the effect of the AAIW reverse cell on the Atlantic salt budget is weak.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2001
DOI: 10.1029/2000GL011642
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-11-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091103
Abstract: The positive trend of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) will impact the Southern Ocean's role in Earth's climate however, the details of the Southern Ocean's response remain uncertain. We introduce a methodology to examine the influence of SAM on the Southern Ocean and apply this method to a global ocean‐sea ice model run at three resolutions (1°, (1/4)°, and (1/10)°). Our methodology drives perturbation simulations with realistic atmospheric forcing of extreme SAM conditions. The thermal response agrees with previous studies positive SAM perturbations warm the upper ocean north of the wind speed maximum and cool it to the south, with the opposite response for negative SAM. The overturning circulation exhibits a rapid response that increases/decreases for positive/negative SAM perturbations and is insensitive to model resolution. The longer‐term adjustment of the overturning circulation, however, depends on the representation of eddies, and is faster at higher resolutions.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 08-1996
DOI: 10.1029/96GL01960
Abstract: A new parameterization of eddies in a coarse resolution ocean model yields deep ocean salinities and temperatures that are significantly closer to observations than with previous parameterizations. This is achieved because dense water is able to flow over sills and into the deep ocean without being diluted with the surrounding water. In addition, the depth to which surface‐induced tracers penetrate in the Southern Ocean is now realistic. This depth is overestimated by previous ocean models, including those used to estimate global warming. Adding this new eddy parameterization to coupled atmosphere‐ocean models is expected to yield greater global warming.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 02-10-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-04-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-019-09761-2
Abstract: Climate models generally simulate a long-term slowdown of the Pacific Walker Circulation in a warming world. However, despite increasing greenhouse forcing, there was an unprecedented intensification of the Pacific Trade Winds during 1992–2011, that co-occurred with a temporary slowdown in global surface warming. Using ensemble simulations from three different climate models starting from different initial conditions, we find a large spread in projected 20-year globally averaged surface air temperature trends that can be linked to differences in Pacific climate variability. This implies diminished predictive skill for global surface air temperature trends over decadal timescales, to a large extent due to intrinsic Pacific Ocean variability. We show, however, that this uncertainty can be considerably reduced when the initial oceanic state is known and well represented in the model. In this case, the spatial patterns of 20-year surface air temperature trends depend largely on the initial state of the Pacific Ocean.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2020
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 13-05-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063843
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-2007
Abstract: Interannual extremes in New Zealand rainfall and their modulation by modes of Southern Hemisphere climate variability are examined in observations and a coupled climate model. North Island extreme dry (wet) years are characterized by locally increased (reduced) sea level pressure (SLP), cold (warm) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the southern Tasman Sea and to the north of the island, and coinciding reduced (enhanced) evaporation upstream of the mean southwesterly airflow. During extreme dry (wet) years in South Island precipitation, an enhanced (reduced) meridional SLP gradient occurs, with circumpolar strengthened (weakened) subpolar westerlies and an easterly (westerly) anomaly in zonal wind in the subtropics. As a result, via Ekman transport, anomalously cold (warm) SST appears under the subpolar westerlies, while anomalies of the opposite sign occur farther north. The phase and magnitude of the resulting SST and evaporation anomalies cannot account for the rainfall extremes over the South Island, suggesting a purely atmospheric mode of variability as the driving factor, in this case the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). New Zealand rainfall variability is predominantly modulated by two Southern Hemisphere climate modes, namely, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the SAM, with a latitudinal gradation in influence of the respective phenomena, and a notable interaction with orographic features. While this heterogeneity is apparent both latitudinally and as a result of orographic effects, climate modes can force local rainfall anomalies with considerable variations across both islands. North Island precipitation is for the most part regulated by both local air–sea heat fluxes and circulation changes associated with the tropical ENSO mode. In contrast, for the South Island the influence of the large-scale general atmospheric circulation dominates, especially via the strength and position of the subpolar westerlies, which are modulated by the extratropical SAM.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-07-2007
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4200.1
Abstract: Previous studies have demonstrated that while the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is an intrinsic feature of the atmosphere, it projects strongly onto the ocean and sea ice properties and circulation. This study investigates the extent of “back interaction” whereby these oceanic SAM anomalies feed back to the atmosphere. A comparison between atmosphere-only and full coupled climate models demonstrates that air–sea interactions in the coupled system act to increase the persistence of the SAM in the atmosphere. To identify the nature of feedback from the ocean to the atmosphere, ensemble experiments are carried out in both atmosphere-only and full coupled models whereby a continuous SAM-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is imposed. Both coupled and uncoupled experiments show a direct thermal response that affects the lower-tropospheric temperature and surface meridional winds. An indirect upper troposphere–wide response is also seen whose characteristics are sensitive to the coupling. For the uncoupled experiment a negative-phase SAM SST perturbation produces an indirect atmospheric response that projects strongly onto the SAM. A positive-phase anomaly, however, shows little robust response away from the local heating at the surface. The coupled experiments, however, do show linearity with respect to the sign of the anomaly. However, the response is considerably weaker than the uncoupled case and the projection of the response onto the SAM mode is poorer. Nonetheless the authors find a clear persistence of the SAM at interseasonal time scales that relies on air–sea coupling and cannot be reproduced in unforced atmosphere-only experiments. This demonstrates that the ocean plays a role in modulating the Southern Annular Mode at these time scales.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2015
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00114.1
Abstract: The Pacific and Indian Oceans are connected by an oceanic passage called the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). In this setting, modes of climate variability over the two oceanic basins interact. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events generate sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Indian Ocean that, in turn, influence ENSO evolution. This raises the question as to whether Indo-Pacific feedback interactions would still occur in a climate system without an Indonesian Throughflow. This issue is investigated here for the first time using a coupled climate model with a blocked Indonesian gateway and a series of partially decoupled experiments in which air–sea interactions over each ocean basin are in turn suppressed. Closing the Indonesian Throughflow significantly alters the mean climate state over the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Pacific Ocean retains an ENSO-like variability, but it is shifted eastward. In contrast, the Indian Ocean dipole and the Indian Ocean basinwide mode both collapse into a single dominant and drastically transformed mode. While the relationship between ENSO and the altered Indian Ocean mode is weaker than that when the ITF is open, the decoupled experiments reveal a d ing effect exerted between the two modes. Despite the weaker Indian Ocean SSTAs and the increased distance between these and the core of ENSO SSTAs, the interbasin interactions remain. This suggests that the atmospheric bridge is a robust element of the Indo-Pacific climate system, linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans even in the absence of an Indonesian Throughflow.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-05-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2235
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 02-11-2020
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-09-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NCOMMS6107
Abstract: During the last glacial termination, the upwelling strength of the southern polar limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation varied, changing the ventilation and stratification of the high-latitude Southern Ocean. During the same period, at least two phases of abrupt global sea-level rise--meltwater pulses--took place. Although the timing and magnitude of these events have become better constrained, a causal link between ocean stratification, the meltwater pulses and accelerated ice loss from Antarctica has not been proven. Here we simulate Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the last 25 kyr using a data-constrained ice-sheet model forced by changes in Southern Ocean temperature from an Earth system model. Results reveal several episodes of accelerated ice-sheet recession, the largest being coincident with meltwater pulse 1A. This resulted from reduced Southern Ocean overturning following Heinrich Event 1, when warmer subsurface water thermally eroded grounded marine-based ice and instigated a positive feedback that further accelerated ice-sheet retreat.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-06-2009
Abstract: The atmospheric and land components of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s (GFDL’s) Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1) is used with climatological sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to investigate the relative climatic impacts of historical anthropogenic land cover change (LCC) and realistic SST anomalies. The SST forcing anomalies used are analogous to signals induced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the background global warming trend. Coherent areas of LCC are represented throughout much of central and eastern Europe, northern India, southeastern China, and on either side of the ridge of the Appalachian Mountains in North America. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. The land cover changes in the model are almost exclusively a conversion of forests to grasslands. Model results show that, at the global scale, the physical impacts of LCC on temperature and rainfall are less important than large-scale SST anomalies, particularly those due to ENSO. However, in the regions where the land surface has been altered, the impact of LCC can be equally or more important than the SST forcing patterns in determining the seasonal cycle of the surface water and energy balance. Thus, this work provides a context for the impacts of LCC on climate: namely, strong regional-scale impacts that can significantly change globally averaged fields but that rarely propagate beyond the disturbed regions. This suggests that proper representation of land cover conditions is essential in the design of climate model experiments, particularly if results are to be used for regional-scale assessments of climate change impacts.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-08-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-022-04946-0
Abstract: The East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains the vast majority of Earth's glacier ice (about 52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past warm periods, synthesize current observations of change and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent notable mass loss during past warm periods are losing mass at present but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet over the twenty-first century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high-emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius is satisfied.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-08-2012
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00332.1
Abstract: During large El Niño events the westerly wind response to the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) shifts southward during boreal winter and early spring, reaching latitudes of 5°–7°S. The resulting meridional asymmetry, along with a related seasonal weakening of wind anomalies on the equator are key elements in the termination of strong El Niño events. Using an intermediate complexity atmosphere model it is demonstrated that these features result from a weakening of the climatological wind speeds south of the equator toward the end of the calendar year. The reduced climatological wind speeds, which are associated with the seasonal intensification of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), lead to anomalous boundary layer Ekman pumping and a reduced surface momentum d ing of the combined boundary layer/lower-troposphere surface wind response to El Niño. This allows the associated zonal wind anomalies to shift south of the equator. Furthermore, using a linear shallow-water ocean model it is demonstrated that this southward wind shift plays a prominent role in changing zonal mean equatorial heat content and is solely responsible for establishing the meridional asymmetry of thermocline depth in the turnaround (recharge/discharge) phase of ENSO. This result calls into question the sole role of oceanic Rossby waves in the phase synchronized termination of El Niño events and suggests that the development of a realistic climatological SPCZ in December–February/March–May (DJF/MAM) is one of the key factors in the seasonal termination of strong El Niño events.
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 15-08-2005
Abstract: The anthropogenic introduction of exotic species is one of the greatest modern threats to marine bio ersity. Yet exotic species introductions remain difficult to predict and are easily misunderstood because knowledge of natural dispersal patterns, species ersity, and biogeography is often insufficient to distinguish between a broadly dispersed natural population and an exotic one. Here we compare a global molecular phylogeny of a representative marine meroplanktonic taxon, the moon-jellyfish Aurelia , with natural dispersion patterns predicted by a global biophysical ocean model. Despite assumed high dispersal ability, the phylogeny reveals many cryptic species and predominantly regional structure with one notable exception: the globally distributed Aurelia sp.1, which, molecular data suggest, may occasionally traverse the Pacific unaided. This possibility is refuted by the ocean model, which shows much more limited dispersion and patterns of distribution broadly consistent with modern biogeographic zones, thus identifying multiple introductions worldwide of this cryptogenic species. This approach also supports existing evidence that ( i ) the occurrence in Hawaii of Aurelia sp. 4 and other native Indo-West Pacific species with similar life histories is most likely due to anthropogenic translocation, and ( ii ) there may be a route for rare natural colonization of northeast North America by the European marine snail Littorina littorea , whose status as endemic or exotic is unclear.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-07-2008
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.1736
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-2010
Abstract: The global and regional climate response to a warming of the Indian Ocean is examined in an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model experiments. The most marked changes occur over the Indian Ocean, where the increase in tropical SST is found to drive enhanced convection throughout the troposphere. In the extratropics, the warming Indian Ocean is found to induce a significant trend toward the positive phase of the northern annular mode and also to enhance the Southern Hemisphere storm track over Indian Ocean longitudes as a result of stronger meridional temperature gradients. Convective outflow in the upper levels over the warming Indian Ocean leads to a trend in subsidence over the Indian and Asian monsoon regions extending southeastward to Indonesia, the eastern Pacific, and northern Australia. Regional changes in Australia reveal that this anomalous zone of subsidence induces a drying trend in the northern regions of the continent. The long-term rainfall trend is exacerbated over northeastern Australia by the anomalous anticyclonic circulation, which leads to an offshore trend in near-surface winds. The confluence of these two factors leads to a drying signal over northeastern Australia, which is detectable during austral autumn. The rapid, late twentieth-century warming of the Indian Ocean may have contributed to a component of the observed drying trend over northeastern Australia in this season via modifications to the vertical structure of the tropical wind field.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2017
Abstract: The response of the global climate system to Drake Passage (DP) closure is examined using a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere–ice model. Unlike most previous studies, a full three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation model is included with a complete hydrological cycle and a freely evolving wind field, as well as a coupled dynamic–thermodynamic sea ice module. Upon DP closure the initial response is found to be consistent with previous ocean-only and intermediate-complexity climate model studies, with an expansion and invigoration of the Antarctic meridional overturning, along with a slowdown in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) production. This results in a dominance of Southern Ocean poleward geostrophic flow and Antarctic sinking when DP is closed. However, within just a decade of DP closure, the increased southward heat transport has melted back a substantial fraction of Antarctic sea ice. At the same time the polar oceans warm by 4°–6°C on the zonal mean, and the maximum strength of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies weakens by ≃10%. These effects, not captured in models without ice and atmosphere feedbacks, combine to force Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) to warm and freshen, to the point that this water mass becomes less dense than NADW. This leads to a marked contraction of the Antarctic overturning, allowing NADW to ventilate the abyssal ocean once more. Poleward heat transport settles back to very similar values as seen in the unperturbed DP open case. Yet remarkably, the equilibrium climate in the closed DP configuration retains a strong Southern Hemisphere warming, similar to past studies with no dynamic atmosphere. However, here it is ocean–atmosphere–ice feedbacks, primarily the ice-albedo feedback and partly the weakened midlatitude jet, not a vigorous southern sinking, which maintain the warm polar oceans. This demonstrates that DP closure can drive a hemisphere-scale warming with polar lification, without the presence of any vigorous Southern Hemisphere overturning circulation. Indeed, DP closure leads to warming that is sufficient over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to inhibit ice-sheet growth. This highlights the importance of the DP gap, Antarctic sea ice, and the associated ice-albedo feedback in maintaining the present-day glacial state over Antarctica.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 29-04-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL086605
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 10-2009
DOI: 10.1029/2009GL040164
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2003
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 27-03-2015
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00661.1
Abstract: The tropical Indian Ocean has experienced a faster warming rate in the west than in the east over the twentieth century. The warming pattern resembles a positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) that is well captured by climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), forced with the two main anthropogenic forcings, long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs), and aerosols. However, much less is known about how GHGs and aerosols influence the IOD asymmetry, including the negative sea surface temperature (SST) skewness in the east IOD pole (IODE). Here, it is shown that the IODE SST negative skewness is more enhanced by aerosols than by GHGs using single-factor forcing experiments from 10 CMIP5 models. Aerosols induce a greater mean zonal thermocline gradient along the tropical Indian Ocean than that forced by GHGs, whereby the thermocline is deeper in the east relative to the west. This generates strong asymmetry in the SST response to thermocline anomalies between warm and cool IODE phases in the aerosol-only experiments, enhancing the negative IODE SST skewness. Other feedback processes involving zonal wind, precipitation, and evaporation cannot solely explain the enhanced SST skewness by aerosols. An interexperiment comparison in one model with strong skewness confirms that the mean zonal thermocline gradient across the Indian Ocean determines the magnitude of the SST–thermocline asymmetry, which in turn controls the SST skewness strength. The findings suggest that as aerosol emissions decline and GHGs increase, this will likely contribute to a future weakening of the IODE SST skewness.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-12-2009
Abstract: The role of tectonic Southern Ocean gateway changes in driving Antarctic climate change at the Eocene–Oligocene boundary remains a topic of debate. One approach taken in previous idealized modeling studies of gateway effects has been to alter modern boundary conditions, whereby the Drake Passage becomes closed. Here, the authors follow this approach but vary atmospheric pCO2 over a range of values when comparing gateway configurations. They find a significantly greater sensitivity of Antarctic temperatures to Southern Ocean gateway changes when atmospheric pCO2 is high than when concentrations are low and the ambient climate is cool. In particular, the closure of the Drake Passage (DP) gap is a necessary condition for the existence of ice-free Antarctic conditions at high CO2 concentrations in this coupled climate model. The absence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is particularly conducive to warm Antarctic conditions at higher CO2 concentrations, which is markedly different from previous simulations conducted under present-day CO2 conditions. The reason for this is the reduction of sea ice associated with higher CO2. Antarctic sea surface temperature and surface air temperature warming due to a closed DP gap reach values around ∼5° and ∼7°C, respectively, for high concentrations of CO2 (above 1250 ppm). In other words, the authors find a significantly greater sensitivity of Antarctic temperatures to atmospheric CO2 concentration when the DP is closed compared to when it is open. The presence of a DP gap inhibits a return to warmer and more Eocene-like Antarctic and deep ocean conditions, even under enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 24-03-2012
DOI: 10.1029/2012GL051004
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-2008
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-02-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2106
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-01-2022
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL093438
Abstract: The Ekman streamfunction is a wind‐derived metric that can be used to infer the Southern Ocean overturning circulations (SOOCs) in both latitude‐depth and latitude‐potential density spaces. The Ekman streamfunction integrates the Ekman pumping zonally and northwards from Antarctica, either to a given latitude or potential density. Here, we evaluate the relationship between the Ekman streamfunction and SOOCs in a global 0. ocean‐sea‐ice model driven by interannual forcing (1958–2018). In certain regions of the Southern Ocean, strong correlations ( ) exist between the Ekman streamfunction and the Eulerian and residual SOOCs on monthly and annual timescales. Regression analysis identifies regions where Ekman streamfunction variability coincides with Sv changes in the overturning one such location is where the wind stress curl changes sign and the Ekman pumping is highly variable.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-05-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2011GL046895
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 19-01-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2100
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 19-11-2014
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021JC017453
Abstract: Ocean eddies influence regional and global climate by mixing and transporting heat, carbon, nutrients, and other properties. One of the most recognizable and ubiquitous features of oceanic variability are mesoscale eddies (vortices and meanders/jets) with spatial scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers. Vortices resemble Gaussian‐like features in sea surface height which locally affect near‐surface wind, cloud properties, and rainfall patterns we refer to these Gaussian‐like eddies as spatially coherent eddies. Although spatially coherent eddies are ubiquitous, their climatology, seasonality, and long‐term temporal evolution is yet to be explored. Here, we examine the kinetic energy (KE) contained in spatially coherent eddies and present their temporal variability using satellite observations between 1993 and 2020. Around half of the transient KE contained by eddies corresponds to spatially coherent eddies. A strong seasonal cycle is observed in the spatially coherent eddy field, and correlates with the wind forcing at time‐lags of 3–6 months. The seasonal correlation between wind forcing and spatially coherent eddies with diameters smaller than 120 km is faster (∼3 months), than that of coherent eddies with larger diameters (∼6 months). These lags between different spatially coherent eddy scales are consistent with the transfer of energy from small to large scales (inverse energy cascade). Our analysis highlights the relative importance of the spatially coherent eddy field in the KE budget, revealing a lagged response between the spatially coherent eddy and forcing at different time‐scales, and showcases the seasonality, and multidecadal trends of coherent eddy properties over the global ocean.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-02-2009
Abstract: Links between extreme wet conditions over East Africa and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) are investigated during the core of the so-called short rain season in October–November. During periods of enhanced East African rainfall, Indian Ocean SST anomalies reminiscent of a tropical Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event are observed. Ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model are used to understand the relative effect of local and large-scale Indian Ocean SST anomalies on above-average East African precipitation. The importance of the various tropical and subtropical IOD SST poles, both in idually and in combination, is quantified. In the simulations, enhanced East African “short rains” are predominantly driven by the local warm SST anomalies in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, while the eastern cold pole of the tropical IOD is of lesser importance. The changed East African rainfall distribution can be explained by a reorganization of the atmospheric circulation induced by the SST anomalies. A reduction in sea level pressure over the western half of the Indian Ocean and converging wind anomalies over East Africa lead to moisture convergence and increased convective activity over the region. The pattern of large-scale circulation changes over the tropical Indian Ocean and adjacent landmasses is consistent with an anomalous strengthening of the Walker cell. The seasonal cycle of various indices related to the SST and the atmospheric circulation in the equatorial Indian Ocean are examined to assess their potential usefulness for seasonal forecasting.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 2012
Abstract: In Part I of this paper an evolution equation for the Atlantic salinity and the reverse cell strength in the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) OFF state was formulated. Here, an analytical solution to this equation is used to test its validity in the context of transient solutions. In this study several transient scenarios in the general circulation model are examined to determine the accuracy of the predictions made with the material in Part I. The authors also determine how well the basic premises of Part I hold throughout these transient behaviors. The unstable equilibria that mark the upper boundary of the OFF state attraction basin are elucidated by the time-dependent behavior shown here. Transient equilibration from one stable NADW OFF state to another in response to changes in the anomalous salt flux H is accurately described by the evolution equation. The theory also explains the distribution of decay times for the NADW OFF state around the maximum critical Atlantic surface flux. Exceedingly long collapse times in excess of 50 000 years are found for surface flux values slightly in excess of the critical value.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 25-10-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2011PA002143
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 17-03-2021
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-320008/V1
Abstract: A distinctive feature of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical atmospheric circulation is the quasi-stationary zonal wave 3 (ZW3) pattern, characterized by three high and three low-pressure centers around the SH extratropics. This feature is present in both the mean atmospheric circulation and its variability on daily, seasonal and interannual timescales. While the ZW3 pattern has significant impacts on meridional heat transport and Antarctic sea ice extent, the reason for its existence remains uncertain, although it has long been assumed to be linked to the existence of three major land masses in the SH extratropics. Here we use an atmospheric general circulation model to show that the stationery ZW3 pattern is instead driven by zonal asymmetric deep atmospheric convection in the tropics, with little to no role played by the orography or land masses in the extratropics. Localized regions of deep convection in the tropics form a local Hadley cell which in turn creates a wave source in the subtropics that excites a poleward and eastward propagating wave train which forms stationary waves in the SH high latitudes. Our findings suggest that changes in tropical deep convection, either due to natural variability or climate change, will impact the zonal wave 3 pattern, with implications for Southern Hemisphere climate, ocean circulation, and sea-ice.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-07-2005
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-2009
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 05-02-2020
Abstract: Abstract. We introduce ACCESS-OM2, a new version of the ocean–sea ice model of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator. ACCESS-OM2 is driven by a prescribed atmosphere (JRA55-do) but has been designed to form the ocean–sea ice component of the fully coupled (atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice) ACCESS-CM2 model. Importantly, the model is available at three different horizontal resolutions: a coarse resolution (nominally 1∘ horizontal grid spacing), an eddy-permitting resolution (nominally 0.25∘), and an eddy-rich resolution (0.1∘ with 75 vertical levels) the eddy-rich model is designed to be incorporated into the Bluelink operational ocean prediction and reanalysis system. The different resolutions have been developed simultaneously, both to allow for testing at lower resolutions and to permit comparison across resolutions. In this paper, the model is introduced and the in idual components are documented. The model performance is evaluated across the three different resolutions, highlighting the relative advantages and disadvantages of running ocean–sea ice models at higher resolution. We find that higher resolution is an advantage in resolving flow through small straits, the structure of western boundary currents, and the abyssal overturning cell but that there is scope for improvements in sub-grid-scale parameterizations at the highest resolution.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 23-04-2015
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2575
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2330
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 30-10-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2021JC017662
Abstract: The Weddell Gyre's variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is investigated using an ocean‐sea ice model at three different horizontal resolutions. The model is evaluated against available observations to demonstrate that the highest resolution configuration (0. in the horizontal) best reproduces observed features of the region. The simulations suggest that the gyre is subject to large variability in its circulation that is not captured by summer‐biased or short‐term observations. The Weddell Gyre's seasonal cycle consists of a summer minimum and a winter maximum and accounts for changes that are between one third and a half of its mean transport. On interannual time scales we find that the gyre's strength is correlated with the local Antarctic easterlies and that extreme events of gyre circulation are associated with changes in the characteristics of the warm inflow at the eastern boundary, that in turn drives changes in sea ice concentration.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 05-2012
Abstract: The thermohaline streamfunction is presented. The thermohaline streamfunction is the integral of transport in temperature–salinity space and represents the net pathway of oceanic water parcels in that space. The thermohaline streamfunction is proposed as a diagnostic to understand the global oceanic circulation and its role in the global movement of heat and freshwater. The coordinate system used filters out adiabatic fluctuations. Physical pathways and ventilation time scales are naturally diagnosed, as are the roles of the mean flow and turbulent fluctuations. Because potential density is a function of temperature and salinity, the framework is naturally isopycnal and is ideal for the diagnosis of water-mass transformations and advective diapycnal heat and freshwater transports. Crucially, the thermohaline streamfunction is computationally and practically trivial to implement as a diagnostic for ocean models. Here, the thermohaline streamfunction is computed using the output of an equilibrated intermediate complexity climate model. It describes a global cell, a warm tropical cell, and a bottom water cell. The streamfunction computed from eddy-induced advection is equivalent in magnitude to that from the total advection, demonstrating the leading-order importance of parameterized eddy fluxes in oceanic heat and freshwater transports. The global cell, being clockwise in thermohaline space, tends to advect both heat and salt toward denser (poleward) water masses in symmetry with the atmosphere’s poleward transport of moisture. A reprojection of the global cell from thermohaline to geographical coordinates reveals a thermohaline circulation reminiscent of the schematized “global conveyor.”
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 21-12-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2011GL049823
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 29-02-2016
Abstract: Abstract. We examine whether the reduced meridional temperature gradients of past greenhouse climates might have reduced oceanic overturning, leading to a more quiescent subsurface ocean. A substantial reduction of the pole-to-Equator temperature difference is achieved in a coupled climate model via an altered radiative balance in the atmosphere. Contrary to expectations, we find that the meridional overturning circulation and deep ocean kinetic energy remain relatively unaffected. Reducing the wind strength also has remarkably little effect on the overturning. Instead, overturning strength depends on deep ocean density gradients, which remain relatively unaffected by the surface changes, despite an overall decrease in ocean density. Ocean poleward heat transport is significantly reduced only in the Northern Hemisphere, as now the circulation operates across a reduced temperature gradient, suggesting a sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere heat transport in greenhouse climates to the overturning circulation. These results indicate that climate models of the greenhouse climate during the Cretaceous and early Paleogene may yield a reasonable overturning circulation, despite failing to fully reproduce the extremely reduced temperature gradients of those time periods.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 27-06-2018
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-018-04876-4
Abstract: The early part of the last deglaciation is characterised by a ~40 ppm atmospheric CO 2 rise occurring in two abrupt phases. The underlying mechanisms driving these increases remain a subject of intense debate. Here, we successfully reproduce changes in CO 2 , δ 13 C and Δ 14 C as recorded by paleo-records during Heinrich stadial 1 (HS1). We show that HS1 CO 2 increase can be explained by enhanced Southern Ocean upwelling of carbon-rich Pacific deep and intermediate waters, resulting from intensified Southern Ocean convection and Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerlies. While enhanced Antarctic Bottom Water formation leads to a millennial CO 2 outgassing, intensified SH westerlies induce a multi-decadal atmospheric CO 2 rise. A strengthening of SH westerlies in a global eddy-permitting ocean model further supports a multi-decadal CO 2 outgassing from the Southern Ocean. Our results highlight the crucial role of SH westerlies in the global climate and carbon cycle system with important implications for future climate projections.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-07-2014
DOI: 10.1038/SREP02245
Abstract: In the late twentieth century, the sub-thermocline waters of the southern tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean experienced a sharp cooling. This cooling has been previously attributed to an anthropogenic aerosol-induced strengthening of the global ocean conveyor, which transfers heat from the subtropical gyre latitudes toward the North Atlantic. From the mid-1990s the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean experienced a rapid temperature trend reversal. Here we show, using climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, that the late twentieth century sub-thermocline cooling of the southern Indian Ocean was primarily driven by increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. The models simulate a slow-down in the sub-thermocline cooling followed by a rapid warming towards the mid twenty-first century. The simulated evolution of the Indian Ocean temperature trend is linked with the peak in aerosols and their subsequent decline in the twenty-first century, reinforcing the hypothesis that aerosols influence ocean circulation trends.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 12-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017JC013311
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2015
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-05-2023
DOI: 10.1038/S41558-023-01667-8
Abstract: Dense water formed near Antarctica, known as Antarctic bottom water (AABW), drives deep ocean circulation and supplies oxygen to the abyssal ocean. Observations show that AABW has freshened and contracted since the 1960s, yet the drivers of these changes and their impact remain uncertain. Here, using observations from the Australian Antarctic Basin, we show that AABW transport reduced by 4.0 Sv between 1994 and 2009, during a period of strong freshening on the continental shelf. An increase in shelf water salinity between 2009 and 2018, previously linked to transient climate variability, drove a partial recovery (2.2 Sv) of AABW transport. Over the full period (1994 to 2017), the net slowdown of −0.8 ± 0.5 Sv decade −1 thinned well-oxygenated layers, driving deoxygenation of −3 ± 2 μmol kg −1 decade −1 . These findings demonstrate that freshening of Antarctic shelf waters weakens the lower limb of the abyssal overturning circulation and reduces deep ocean oxygen content.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 29-09-2020
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2001
DOI: 10.1029/1998RG000043
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-2013
Abstract: Vertical transport of heat by ocean circulation is investigated using a coupled climate model and novel thermodynamic methods. Using a streamfunction in temperature–depth coordinates, cells are identified by whether they are thermally direct (flux heat upward) or indirect (flux heat downward). These cells are then projected into geographical and other thermodynamic coordinates. Three cells are identified in the model: a thermally direct cell coincident with Antarctic Bottom Water, a thermally indirect deep cell coincident with the upper limb of the meridional overturning circulation, and a thermally direct shallow cell coincident with the subtropical gyres at the surface. The mechanisms maintaining the thermally indirect deep cell are investigated. Sinking water within the deep cell is more saline than that which upwells, because of the coupling between the upper limb and the subtropical gyres in a broader thermohaline circulation. Despite the higher salinity of its sinking water, the deep cell transports buoyancy downward, requiring a source of mechanical energy. Experiments run to steady state with increasing Southern Hemisphere westerlies show an increasing thermally indirect circulation. These results suggest that heat can be pumped downward by the upper limb of the meridional overturning circulation through a combination of salinity gain in the subtropics and the mechanical forcing provided by Southern Hemisphere westerly winds.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-2011
Abstract: Recent results based on models using prescribed surface wind stress forcing have suggested that the net freshwater transport Σ by the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) into the Atlantic basin is a good indicator of the multiple-equilibria regime. By means of a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity, this study shows that this scalar Σ cannot capture the connection between the properties of the steady state and the impact of the wind stress feedback on the evolution of perturbations. This implies that, when interpreting the observed value of Σ, the position of the present-day climate is systematically biased toward the multiple-equilibria regime. The results show, however, that the stabilizing influence of the wind stress feedback on the MOC is restricted to a narrow window of freshwater fluxes, located in the vicinity of the state characterized by a zero freshwater flux ergence over the Atlantic basin. If the position of the present-day climate is farther away from this state, then wind stress feedbacks are unable to exert a persistent effect on the modern MOC. This is because the stabilizing influence of the shallow reverse cell situated south of the equator during the off state rapidly dominates over the destabilizing influence of the wind stress feedback when the freshwater forcing gets stronger. Under glacial climate conditions by contrast, a weaker sensitivity with an opposite effect is found. This is ultimately due to the relatively large sea ice extent of the glacial climate, which implies that, during the off state, the horizontal redistribution of fresh waters by the subpolar gyre does not favor the development of a thermally direct MOC as opposed to the modern case.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-10-2014
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2018
Abstract: Basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is expected to increase during the twenty-first century as the ocean warms, which will have consequences for ice sheet stability and global sea level rise. Here we present future projections of Antarctic ice shelf melting using the Finite Element Sea Ice/Ice-Shelf Ocean Model (FESOM) forced with atmospheric output from models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). CMIP5 models are chosen based on their agreement with historical atmospheric reanalyses over the Southern Ocean the best-performing models are ACCESS 1.0 and the CMIP5 multimodel mean. Their output is bias-corrected for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. During the twenty-first-century simulations, total ice shelf basal mass loss increases by between 41% and 129%. Every sector of Antarctica shows increased basal melting in every scenario, with the largest increases occurring in the Amundsen Sea. The main mechanism driving this melting is an increase in warm Circumpolar Deep Water on the Antarctic continental shelf. A reduction in wintertime sea ice formation simulated during the twenty-first century stratifies the water column, allowing a warm bottom layer to develop and intrude into ice shelf cavities. This effect may be overestimated in the Amundsen Sea because of a cold bias in the present-day simulation. Other consequences of weakened sea ice formation include freshening of High Salinity Shelf Water and warming of Antarctic Bottom Water. Furthermore, freshening around the Antarctic coast in our simulations causes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to weaken and the Antarctic Coastal Current to strengthen.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 08-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2011GL048056
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-1996
DOI: 10.1007/BF00141702
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 10-12-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066344
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 03-2009
Abstract: The effect of the position of the Southern Hemisphere subpolar westerly winds (SWWs) on the thermohaline circulation (THC) of the World Ocean is examined. The latitudes of zero wind stress curl position exert a strong control on the distribution of overturning between basins in the Northern Hemisphere. A southward wind shift results in a stronger Atlantic THC and enhanced stratification in the North Pacific, whereas a northward wind shift leads to a significantly reduced Atlantic THC and the development of vigorous sinking (up to 1500-m depth) in the North Pacific. In other words, the Atlantic dominance of the meridional overturning circulation depends on the position of the zero wind stress curl over the Southern Ocean in the experiments. This position has a direct influence on the surface salinity contrast between the Pacific and the Atlantic, which is then further lified by changes in the distribution of Northern Hemisphere sinking between these basins. The results show that the northward location of the SWW stress maximum inferred for the last glacial period may have contributed to significantly reduced North Atlantic Deep Water formation during this period, and perhaps an enhanced and deeper North Pacific THC. Also, a more poleward location of the SWW stress maximum in the current warming climate may entail stronger salinity stratification of the North Pacific.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-2006
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3909.1
Abstract: This study shows that a reduction in vertical mixing applied inside the Atlantic basin can drastically increase North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) stability with respect to freshwater perturbations applied to the North Atlantic. This is contrary to the notion that the stability of the ocean’s thermohaline circulation simply scales with vertical mixing rates. An Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) reverse cell, reliant upon upwelling of cold AAIW into the Atlantic thermocline, is found to be associated with stable states where NADW is collapsed. Transitions between NADW “on” and “off” states are characterized by interhemispheric competition between this AAIW cell and the NADW cell. In contrast to the AAIW reverse cell, NADW eventually upwells outside the Atlantic basin and is thus not as sensitive to changes in vertical mixing within the Atlantic. A reduction in vertical mixing in the Atlantic weakens the AAIW reverse cell, resulting in an enhanced stability of NADW formation. The results also suggest that the AAIW reverse cell is responsible for the stability of NADW collapsed states, and thereby plays a key role in maintaining multiple equilibria in the climate system. A global increase of vertical mixing in the model results in significantly enhanced NADW stability, as found in previous studies. However, an enhancement of vertical mixing applied only inside the Atlantic Ocean results in a reduction of NADW stability. It is concluded that the stability of NADW formation to freshwater perturbations depends critically on the basin-scale distribution of vertical mixing in the world’s oceans.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-06-2005
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3376.1
Abstract: The role of a Southern Ocean gateway in permitting multiple equilibria of the global ocean thermohaline circulation is examined. In particular, necessary conditions for the existence of multiple equilibria are studied with a coupled climate model, wherein stable solutions are obtained for a range of bathymetries with varying Drake Passage (DP) depths. No transitions to a Northern Hemisphere (NH) overturning state are found when the Drake Passage sill is shallower than a critical depth (1100 m in the model described herein). This preference for Southern Hemisphere sinking is a result of the particularly cold conditions of the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation regions compared to the NH deep-water formation zones. In a shallow or closed DP configuration, this forces an exclusive production of deep/bottom water in the Southern Hemisphere. Increasing the depth of the Drake Passage sill causes a gradual vertical decoupling in Atlantic circulation, removing the influence of AABW from the upper 2000 m of the Atlantic Ocean. When the DP is sufficiently deep, this shifts the interaction between a North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) cell and an AABW cell to an interaction between an (shallower) Antarctic Intermediate Water cell and an NADW cell. This latter situation allows transitions to a Northern Hemisphere overturning state.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 15-11-1995
DOI: 10.1029/95GL02670
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2014
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-12-2020
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 10-12-2015
Abstract: Kravtsov et al. claim that we incorrectly assess the statistical independence of simulated s les of internal climate variability and that we underestimate uncertainty in our calculations of observed internal variability. Their analysis is fundamentally flawed, owing to the use of model ensembles with too few realizations and the fact that no one model can adequately represent the forced signal.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-2015
DOI: 10.1002/JQS.2794
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 19-11-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065948
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 28-06-2020
Publisher: Authorea, Inc.
Date: 03-2023
DOI: 10.22541/ESSOAR.167768108.88472952/V1
Abstract: Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is a major component of the global overturning circulation, originating around the Antarctic continental margin. In recent decades AABW has both warmed and freshened, but there is also evidence of large interannual variability. The causes of this underlying variability are not yet fully understood, in part due to a lack of ocean and air-sea-ice flux measurements in the region. Here, we simulate the formation and export of AABW from 1958 to 2018 using a global, eddying ocean–sea-ice model in which the four AABW formation regions and transports agree reasonably well with observations. The simulated formation and export of AABW exhibits strong interannual variability which is not correlated between the different formation regions. Reservoirs of very dense waters at depth in the Weddell and Ross Seas following 1-2 years of strong surface water mass transformation can lead to higher AABW export for up to a decade. In Prydz Bay and at the Adélie Coast in contrast, dense water reservoirs do not persist beyond 1 year which we attribute to the narrower shelf extent in the East Antarctic AABW formation regions. The main factor controlling years of high AABW formation are weaker easterly winds, which reduce sea ice import into the AABW formation region, leaving increased areas of open water primed for air-sea buoyancy loss and convective overturning. Our study highlights the variability of simulated AABW formation in all four formation regions, with potential implications for interpreting trends in observational data using only limited duration and coverage.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 08-04-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068159
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 16-11-2021
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 06-2009
Abstract: Fidelity and projected changes in the climate models, used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), are assessed with regard to the Southern Hemisphere extratropical ocean and sea ice systems. While in idual models span different physical parameterizations and resolutions, a major component of intermodel variability results from surface wind differences. Projected changes to the surface wind field are also central in modifying future extratropical circulation and internal properties. A robust southward shift of the circumpolar current and subtropical gyres is projected, with a strong spinup of the Atlantic gyre. An associated increase in the core strength of the circumpolar circulation is evident however, this does not translate into robust increases in Drake Passage transport. While an overarching oceanic warming is projected, the circulation-driven poleward shift of the temperature field explains much of the midlatitude warming pattern. The effect of this shift is less clear for salinity, where, instead, surface freshwater forcing dominates. Surface warming and high-latitude freshwater increases drive intensified stratification, and a shoaling and southward shift of the deep mixed layers. Despite large intermodel differences, there is also a robust weakening in bottom water formation and its northward outflow. At the same time the wind intensification invigorates the upwelling of deep water, transporting warm, salty water southward and upward, with major implications for sequestration and outgassing of CO2. A robust decrease is projected for both the sea ice concentration and the seasonal cycling of ice volume, potentially altering the salt and heat budget at high latitudes.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 16-06-2021
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020JC016412
Abstract: The meridional variability of the Subtropical Front (STF) and the drivers of variability on interannual time scales in the New Zealand region are analyzed using a multi‐decadal eddy‐resolving ocean hindcast model, in comparison with Argo data. The STF marks the water mass boundary between subtropical waters and subantarctic waters, and is defined as the southern‐most location of the 11°C isotherm and 34.8 psu isohaline between 100 and 500 m. The STF shifts up to 650 km (6°) meridionally on seasonal timescales. In addition to seasonal variability, shifts of around 200 km (2°) occur on interannual time scales. These shifts are connected to regional wind stress curl anomalies in the eastern Tasman Sea and east of New Zealand, which trigger Ekman convergence/ ergence and Rossby waves and result in meridional transport of heat and salt into/out of the Tasman Sea. The net transports across the northern boundary of the Tasman Sea show the largest sensitivity to these wind stress curl anomalies. During periods of positive wind stress curl anomalies and Ekman convergence, the heat and salt content increases shifting the position of the STF southward. The opposite tendency occurs during periods of negative wind stress curl anomalies. The migration of the STF does not appear to be directly linked to regional climate oscillations.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-2014
DOI: 10.1002/2013GB004708
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2018
DOI: 10.1002/2017JC013412
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 17-11-2013
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE12683
Abstract: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's most prominent source of interannual climate variability, exerting profound worldwide effects. Despite decades of research, its behaviour continues to challenge scientists. In the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, the anomalously cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) found during La Niña events and the warm waters of modest El Niño events both propagate westwards, as in the seasonal cycle. In contrast, SST anomalies propagate eastwards during extreme El Niño events, prominently in the post-1976 period, spurring unusual weather events worldwide with costly consequences. The cause of this propagation asymmetry is currently unknown. Here we trace the cause of the asymmetry to the variations in upper ocean currents in the equatorial Pacific, whereby the westward-flowing currents are enhanced during La Niña events but reversed during extreme El Niño events. Our results highlight that propagation asymmetry is favoured when the westward mean equatorial currents weaken, as is projected to be the case under global warming. By analysing past and future climate simulations of an ensemble of models with more realistic propagation, we find a doubling in the occurrences of El Niño events that feature prominent eastward propagation characteristics in a warmer world. Our analysis thus suggests that more frequent emergence of propagation asymmetry will be an indication of the Earth's warming climate.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-2008
Abstract: The natural variability of the Weddell Sea variety of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is examined in a long-term integration of a coupled climate model. Examination of passive tracer concentrations suggests that the model AABW is predominantly sourced in the Weddell Sea. The maximum rate of the Atlantic sector Antarctic overturning (ψatl) is shown to effectively represent the outflow of Weddell Sea deep and bottom waters and the compensating inflow of Warm Deep Water (WDW). The variability of ψatl is found to be driven by surface density variability, which is in turn controlled by sea surface salinity (SSS). This suggests that SSS is a better proxy than SST for post-Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions of the AABW overturning rate. Heat–salt budget and composite analyses reveal that during years of high Weddell Sea salinity, there is an increased removal of summertime sea ice by enhanced wind-driven ice drift, resulting in increased solar radiation absorbed into the ocean. The larger ice-free region in summer then leads to enhanced air–sea heat loss, more rapid ice growth, and therefore greater brine rejection during winter. Together with a negative feedback mechanism involving anomalous WDW inflow and sea ice melting, this results in positively correlated θ–S anomalies that in turn drive anomalous convection, impacting AABW variability. Analysis of the propagation of θ–S anomalies is conducted along an isopycnal surface marking the separation boundary between AABW and the overlying Circumpolar Deep Water. Empirical orthogonal function analyses reveal propagation of θ–S anomalies from the Weddell Sea into the Atlantic interior with the dominant modes characterized by fluctuations on interannual to centennial time scales. Although salinity variability is dominated by along-isopycnal propagation, θ variability is dominated by isopycnal heaving, which implies propagation of density anomalies with the speed of baroclinic waves.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 15-03-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018JD029541
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2006
DOI: 10.1175/JPO2930.1
Abstract: The natural variability of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) is analyzed using a long-term integration of a coupled climate model. The variability is decomposed using a standard EOF analysis into three separate modes accounting for 68% and 82% of the total variance in the upper and lower CDW layers, respectively. The first mode exhibits an interbasin-scale variability on multicentennial time scales, originating in the North Atlantic and flowing southward into the Southern Ocean via North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Salinity dipole anomalies appear to propagate around the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on these time scales with the strengthening and weakening of NADW formation. The anomaly propagates northward from the midlatitude subsurface of the South Atlantic and sinks in the North Atlantic before flowing southward along the CDW isopycnal layers. This suggests an interhemispheric connection in the generation of the first CDW variability mode. The second mode shows a localized θ−S variability in the Brazil–Malvinas confluence zone on multidecadal to centennial time scales. Heat and salt budget analyses reveal that this variability is controlled by meridional advection driven by fluctuations in the strength of the Deep Western Boundary and the Malvinas Currents. The third mode suggests an Antarctic Intermediate Water source in the South Pacific contributing to variability in upper CDW. It is further found that NADW formation is mainly buoyancy driven on the time scales resolved, with only a weak connection with Southern Hemisphere winds. On the other hand, Southern Hemisphere winds have a more direct influence on the rate of NADW outflow into the Southern Ocean. The model’s spatial pattern of θ−S variability is consistent with the limited observational record in the Southern Hemisphere. However, some observations of decadal CDW θ−S changes are beyond that seen in the model in its unperturbed state.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 20-08-2010
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060527
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-02-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NCOMMS10409
Abstract: Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979–2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-08-2021
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-04-2014
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00437.1
Abstract: The representation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under historical forcing and future projections is analyzed in 34 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Most models realistically simulate the observed intensity and location of maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during ENSO events. However, there exist systematic biases in the westward extent of ENSO-related SST anomalies, driven by unrealistic westward displacement and enhancement of the equatorial wind stress in the western Pacific. Almost all CMIP5 models capture the observed asymmetry in magnitude between the warm and cold events (i.e., El Niños are stronger than La Niñas) and between the two types of El Niños: that is, cold tongue (CT) El Niños are stronger than warm pool (WP) El Niños. However, most models fail to reproduce the asymmetry between the two types of La Niñas, with CT stronger than WP events, which is opposite to observations. Most models capture the observed peak in ENSO litude around December however, the seasonal evolution of ENSO has a large range of behavior across the models. The CMIP5 models generally reproduce the duration of CT El Niños but have biases in the evolution of the other types of events. The evolution of WP El Niños suggests that the decay of this event occurs through heat content discharge in the models rather than the advection of SST via anomalous zonal currents, as seems to occur in observations. No consistent changes are seen across the models in the location and magnitude of maximum SST anomalies, frequency, or temporal evolution of these events in a warmer world.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-12-2014
DOI: 10.1002/JQS.2683
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-2022
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 28-10-2020
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-2014
DOI: 10.1002/2014JC010286
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 18-02-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL081462
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-05-2011
Abstract: In this study, a simple stochastic climate model is used to examine the impact of the ocean mixed layer depth, surface turbulent energy fluxes, and Ekman currents on the persistence of cold-season extratropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with variability in the annular modes of atmospheric circulation in both hemispheres. Observational analysis reveals that during the cold season, SST anomalies associated with the southern annular mode (SSTSAM) persist considerably longer than those associated with the northern annular mode (SSTNAM). Using the simple model, it is shown that the persistence of the cold-season SSTSAM is consistent with the simple stochastic climate paradigm in which the atmospheric forcing is approximated as white noise, and the persistence of SST anomalies can be largely determined by the thermal inertia of the ocean mixed layer. In the North Atlantic, however, the simple climate model overestimates the persistence of the cold-season SSTNAM. It is thought that this overestimate occurs because the NAM-related heat flux forcing cannot be described purely as white noise but must also include a feedback from the underlying SST anomalies.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-2002
DOI: 10.1007/S00114-002-0348-5
Abstract: The relationship between CFC-11 and anthropogenic CO2 (deltaDIC(ant)) concentrations in the world ocean are evaluated based on a simple off-line tracer ventilation model. Since the different solubility characteristics of CFC-11 and deltaDIC(ant) cause major differences in their oceanic uptake features, indicating different uptake pathways, a care should be taken while assessing deltaDIC(ant) in the oceans relying on CFC-11 concentrations. Evidence will be provided that CFC-11 storage occurs mainly in colder, high latitude regions, whereas the warmer, low latitude regions of the world ocean play an important role in both storing and absorbing anthropogenic CO2. This can be caused by an increased CO2 uptake or by a reduced CO2 release to the atmosphere at lower latitudes, both as a result of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-03-2023
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020MS002333
Abstract: Numerical mixing, defined here as the physically spurious tracer diffusion due to the numerical discretization of advection, is known to contribute to biases in ocean models. However, quantifying numerical mixing is nontrivial, with most studies utilizing targeted experiments in idealized settings. Here, we present a water mass transformation‐based method for quantifying numerical mixing that can be applied to any conserved variable in general circulation models. Furthermore, the method can be applied within in idual fluid columns to provide spatial information. We apply the method to a suite of global ocean model simulations with differing grid spacings and subgrid‐scale parameterizations. In all configurations numerical mixing drives diathermal heat transport of comparable magnitude to that associated with explicit parameterizations. Numerical mixing is prominent in the tropical thermocline, where it is sensitive to the vertical diffusivity and resolution. At colder temperatures numerical mixing is sensitive to the presence of explicit neutral diffusion, suggesting that it may act as a proxy for neutral diffusion when it is explicitly absent. Comparison of otherwise equivalent 1/4° and 1/10° configurations with grid‐scale dependent horizontal viscosity shows only a modest enhancement in numerical mixing at 1/4°. However, if the lateral viscosity is maintained while resolution is increased then numerical mixing is reduced by almost 35 % . This result suggests that the common practice of reducing viscosity in order to maximize permitted variability must be considered carefully. Our results provide a detailed view of numerical mixing in ocean models and pave the way for improvements in parameter choices and numerical methods.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 03-2010
Abstract: The relative influences of Indian and Pacific Ocean modes of variability on Australian rainfall and soil moisture are investigated for seasonal, interannual, and decadal time scales. For the period 1900–2006, observations, reanalysis products, and hindcasts of soil moisture during the cool season (June–October) are used to assess the impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) on southeastern Australia and the Murray–Darling Basin, two regions that have recently suffered severe droughts. A distinct asymmetry is found in the impacts of the opposite phases of both ENSO and IOD on Australian rainfall and soil moisture. There are significant differences between the dominant drivers of drought at interannual and decadal time scales. On interannual time scales, both ENSO and the IOD modify southeastern Australian soil moisture, with the driest (wettest) conditions over the southeast and more broadly over large parts of Australia occurring during years when an El Niño and a positive IOD event (La Niña and a negative IOD event) co-occur. The atmospheric circulation associated with these responses is discussed. Lower-frequency variability over southeastern Australia, however, including multiyear drought periods, seems to be more robustly related to Indian Ocean temperatures than Pacific conditions. The frequencies of both positive and negative IOD events are significantly different during periods of prolonged drought compared to extended periods of “normal” rainfall. In contrast, the frequency of ENSO events remains largely unchanged during prolonged dry and wet periods. For the Murray–Darling Basin, there appears to be a significant influence by La Niña and both positive and negative IOD events. In particular, La Niña plays a much more prominent role than for more southern regions, especially on interannual time scales and during prolonged wet periods. For prolonged dry (wet) periods, positive IOD events also occur in unusually high (low) numbers.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020JC016540
Abstract: The response of the ventilation of mode and intermediate waters to abrupt changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is examined by analyzing the ideal age in a global ocean‐sea ice model. The age response is shown to differ between the central Pacific Ocean and other basins. In the central Pacific there are large decreases in the age of subtropical mode and intermediate waters associated with a more positive SAM, contrasting only small age changes in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, except near where intermediate water density surfaces outcrop. These interbasin differences hold for simulations at different horizontal resolutions, and can be explained by the zonal variations in wind stress changes associated with the SAM. These results suggest that the carbon and heat uptake associated with the SAM will likely vary between ocean basins.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-10-2023
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2013
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-04-2021
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 31-07-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL103018
Abstract: Recent ice loss on the western Antarctic Peninsula has been driven by warming ocean waters on the continental shelf. However, due to the short observational record, our understanding of the dynamics and variability in this region remains poor. High‐resolution ocean model simulations show that the temperature variability along the western Antarctic Peninsula is controlled by the rate of dense water formation in the Weddell Sea. Passive tracer advection reveals connectivity between the Weddell Sea and the coastline of the western Antarctic Peninsula and Bellingshausen Sea. During multi‐year periods of weak Weddell dense water formation, dense overflow transport in the Weddell Sea decreases, while the transport of cold water around the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula strengthens, driving a temperature decrease of 0.4°C along the western Antarctic Peninsula. This mechanism implies that western Antarctic Peninsula coastal ocean temperature may cool in the future if Weddell Dense Shelf Water production slows down.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 05-2009
Abstract: The absence of the Drake Passage (DP) gateway in coupled models generally leads to vigorous Antarctic bottom water (AABW) formation, Antarctic warming, and the absence of North Atlantic deep-water (NADW) formation. Here the authors show that this result depends critically on atmospheric moisture transport by midlatitude storms. The authors use coupled model simulations employing geometries different only at the location of DP to show that oceanic circulation similar to that of the present day is possible when DP is closed and atmospheric moisture transport values enhanced by Southern Ocean storm activity are used. In this case, no Antarctic warming occurs in conjunction with DP closure. The authors also find that the changes in poleward heat transport in response to the establishment of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) are small. This result arises from enhanced atmospheric moisture transport at the midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH), although the values used remain within a range appropriate to the present day. In contrast, homogeneous or (near) symmetric moisture diffusivity leads to strong SH sinking and the absence of a stable Northern Hemisphere (NH) overturning state, a feature familiar from previous studies. The authors’ results show that the formation of NADW, or its precursor, may have been possible before the opening of the DP at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary, and that its presence depends on an interplay between the existence of the DP gap and the hydrological cycle across the midlatitude storm tracks.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2008
Abstract: The stability of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) to freshwater (FW) perturbations is investigated in a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. It is found that AABW is stable to surface freshwater fluxes greater in volume and rate to those that permanently “shut down” North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Although AABW weakens during FW forcing, it fully recovers within 50 yr of termination of FW input. This is due in part to a concurrent deep warming during AABW suppression that acts to eventually destabilize the water column. In addition, the prevailing upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water and northward Ekman transport across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, regulated by the subpolar westerly winds, limits the accumulation of FW at high latitudes and provides a mechanism for resalinizing the surface after the FW forcing has ceased. Enhanced sea ice production in the cooler AABW suppressed state also aids in the resalinization of the surface after FW forcing is stopped. Convection then restarts with AABW properties only slightly colder and fresher compared to the unperturbed control climate state. Further experiments with larger FW perturbations and very slow application rates (0.2 Sv/1000 yr) (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) confirm the lack of multiple steady states of AABW in the model. This contrasts with the North Atlantic, wherein classical hysteresis behavior is obtained with similar forcing. The climate response to reduced AABW production is also investigated. During peak FW forcing, Antarctic surface sea and air temperatures decrease by a maximum of 2.5° and 2.2°C, respectively. This is of a similar magnitude to the corresponding response in the North Atlantic. Although in the final steady state, the AABW experiment returns to the original control climate, whereas the North Atlantic case transitions to a different steady state characterized by substantial regional cooling (up to 6.0°C surface air temperature).
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 12-07-2014
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060613
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-08-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-11-2017
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 19-10-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL103250
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-2009
Abstract: Increasing the value of along-isopycnal diffusivity in a coupled model is shown to lead to enhanced stability of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation with respect to freshwater (FW) perturbations. This is because the North Atlantic (NA) surface salinity budget is dominated by upward salt fluxes resulting from winter convection for low values of along-isopycnal diffusivity, whereas along-isopycnal diffusion exerts a strong control on NA surface salinity at higher diffusivity values. Shutdown of wintertime convection in response to a FW pulse allows the development of a halocline responsible for the suppression of deep sinking. In contrast to convection, isopycnal salt diffusion proves a more robust mechanism for preventing the formation of a halocline, as surface freshening leads only to a flattening of isopycnals, leaving at least some diffusive removal of anomalous surface FW in place. As a result, multiple equilibria are altogether absent for sufficiently high values of isopycnal diffusivity. Furthermore, the surface salinity budget of the North Pacific is also dominated by along-isopycnal diffusion when diffusivity values are sufficiently high, leading to a breakdown of the permanent halocline there and the associated onset of deep-water formation.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 21-04-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2015JD024254
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 29-09-2009
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 19-02-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL067728
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 2009
Abstract: Late twentieth-century trends in New Zealand precipitation are examined using observations and reanalysis data for the period 1979–2006. One of the aims of this study is to investigate the link between these trends and recent changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. The contributions from changes in Southern Hemisphere climate modes, particularly the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the southern annular mode (SAM), are quantified for the austral summer season, December–February (DJF). Increasingly drier conditions over much of New Zealand can be partially explained by the SAM and ENSO. Especially over wide parts of the North Island and western regions of the South Island, the SAM potentially contributes up to 80% and 20%–50% to the overall decline in DJF precipitation, respectively. Over the North Island, the contribution of the SAM and ENSO to precipitation trends is of the same sign. In contrast, over the southwest of the South Island the two climate modes act in the opposite sense, though the effect of the SAM seems to dominate there during austral summer. The leading modes of variability in summertime precipitation over New Zealand are linked to the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The two dominant modes, explaining 64% and 9% of the overall DJF precipitation variability respectively, can be understood as local manifestations of the large-scale climate variability associated with the SAM and ENSO.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2013
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2009
DOI: 10.1029/2008GL036801
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 25-07-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064751
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-09-2015
Abstract: Climate model projections and observations show a faster rate of warming in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH). This asymmetry is partly due to faster rates of warming over the land than the ocean, and partly due to the ocean circulation redistributing heat toward the NH. This study examines the interhemispheric warming asymmetry in an intermediate complexity coupled climate model with eddy-permitting (0.25°) ocean resolution, and results are compared with a similar model with coarse (1°) ocean resolution. The models use a pole-to-pole 60° wide sector domain in the ocean and a 120° wide sector in the atmosphere, with Atlantic-like bathymetry and a simple land model. There is a larger high-latitude ocean temperature asymmetry in the 0.25° model compared with the 1° model, both in equilibrated control runs and in response to greenhouse warming. The larger warming asymmetry is caused by greater melting of NH sea ice in the 0.25° model, associated with faster, less viscous boundary currents transporting heat northward. The SH sea ice and heat transport response is relatively insensitive to the resolution change, since the eddy heat transport differences between the models are small compared with the mean flow heat transport. When a wind shift and intensification is applied in these warming scenarios, the warming asymmetry is further enhanced, with greater upwelling of cool water in the Southern Ocean and enhanced warming in the NH. Surface air temperatures show a substantial but lesser degree of high-latitude warming asymmetry, reflecting the sea surface warming patterns over the ocean but warming more symmetrically over the land regions.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-01-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2010GL045571
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2014
DOI: 10.1002/2013JC009525
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 2017
DOI: 10.1002/2016PA003024
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-2012
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00287.1
Abstract: The impact of Indo-Pacific climate feedback on the dynamics of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated using an ensemble set of Indian Ocean decoupling experiments (DCPL), utilizing a millennial integration of a coupled climate model. It is found that eliminating air–sea interactions over the Indian Ocean results in various degrees of ENSO lification across DCPL simulations, with a shift in the underlying dynamics toward a more prominent thermocline mode. The DCPL experiments reveal that the net effect of the Indian Ocean in the control runs (CTRL) is a d ing of ENSO. The extent of this d ing appears to be negatively correlated to the coherence between ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). This type of relationship can arise from the long-lasting ENSO events that the model simulates, such that developing ENSO often coincides with Indian Ocean basin-wide mode (IOBM) anomalies during non-IOD years. As demonstrated via AGCM experiments, the IOBM enhances western Pacific wind anomalies that counteract the ENSO-enhancing winds farther east. In the recharge oscillator framework, this weakens the equatorial Pacific air–sea coupling that governs the ENSO thermocline feedback. Relative to the IOBM, the IOD is more conducive for ENSO growth. The net d ing by the Indian Ocean in CTRL is thus dominated by the IOBM effect which is weaker with stronger ENSO–IOD coherence. The stronger ENSO thermocline mode in DCPL is consistent with the absence of any IOBM anomalies. This study supports the notion that the Indian Ocean should be viewed as an integral part of ENSO dynamics.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2005
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3453.1
Abstract: A simple linearized transport model of anomalous Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) is studied to determine whether it can sustain anomalies of realistic litudes under a physically based stochastic forcing. As noted in previous studies, eigenmodes of this system with zonal wavenumbers 2 and 3 share key propagation characteristics with the SST anomalies associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW). The system is solved on a grid that follows the path of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and is forced by a stochastic heat flux. The forcing is white in space and time and represents the advection of the mean SST gradient by high-frequency variations in the cross-ACC velocity, due to mesoscale eddy variability. The magnitude of the stochastic forcing is determined from a global eddy-permitting ocean model. Anomalous ocean surface velocity variability (8 cm s−1) coupled to a mean cross-ACC SST gradient of 0.8°C (°latitude)−1 sustains anomalous interannual SST variability at low wavenumbers and litudes of the order of 1°C, consistent with those associated with the ACW. In the long-term mean, variance is broadly spread among low wavenumbers, in contrast to the dominance of one or two zonal wavenumbers in the ACW observations. It is found, however, that the model produces single dominant wavenumbers over in idual periods of decades, suggesting that the apparent unimodal nature of the ACW may be an artifact of the short observational record used to infer it. Alternatively, it is shown that a nonisotropic forcing may also result in a stronger preference for particular zonal wavenumbers. It is shown that if the atmosphere at mid to high southern latitudes has an equivalent barotropic response to heating, then the resulting sea level pressure anomalies reproduce the phase relationship of the observed ACW. These results are consistent with the notion that a simple stochastically forced advection of SST anomalies can explain SST variability associated with the ACW to leading order.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-04-2023
Abstract: Antarctic margin and Southern Ocean surface freshening has been observed in recent decades and is projected to continue over the twenty-first century. Surface freshening due to precipitation and sea ice changes is represented in coupled climate models however, Antarctic ice sheet/shelf meltwater contributions are not. Because Antarctic melting is projected to accelerate over the twenty-first century, this constitutes a fundamental shortcoming in present-day projections of high-latitude climate. Southern Ocean surface freshening has been shown to cause surface cooling by reducing both ocean convection and the entrainment of warm subsurface waters to the surface. Over the twenty-first century, Antarctic meltwater is expected to alter the pattern of projected surface warming as well as having other climatic effects. However, there remains considerable uncertainty in projected Antarctic meltwater amounts, and previous findings could be model dependent. Here, we use the ACCESS-ESM1.5 coupled model to investigate global climate responses to low and high Antarctic meltwater additions over the twenty-first century under a high-emissions climate scenario. Our high-meltwater simulations produce anomalous surface cooling, increased Antarctic sea ice, subsurface ocean warming, and hemispheric differences in precipitation. Our low-meltwater simulations suggest that the magnitude of surface temperature and Antarctic sea ice responses is strongly dependent on the applied meltwater amount. Taken together, these findings highlight the importance of constraining projections of Antarctic ice sheet/shelf melt to better project global surface climate changes over the twenty-first century. Antarctic ice sheets and shelves are melting, adding meltwater to the Southern Ocean and changing the ocean circulation. Antarctic meltwater stratifies the upper ocean, resulting in cooling of the surface Southern Ocean but warming at depth that could accelerate ice shelf melting. Coupled climate models used to project twenty-first-century climate do not represent ice sheets or shelves, neglecting important climate impacts. Here we conduct meltwater simulations with a coupled climate model and find that the magnitude of climate responses is strongly dependent on the applied meltwater amount. This highlights 1) the importance of constraining Antarctic meltwater projections to better project global climate over the twenty-first century and 2) that it is important that Antarctic meltwater be represented in future-generation coupled climate models.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-03-2018
Abstract: Subduction, water mass transformation, and transport rates in the Indo-Pacific Ocean are diagnosed in a recent version of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis coupled model. It is found that the subduction across the base of the winter mixed layer is dominated by the lateral transfer, particularly within the relatively dense water classes corresponding to the densest mode and intermediate waters. However, within lighter densities, including those characterizing the lighter varieties of mode waters, the vertical transfer has a strong positive input to the net subduction. The upper-ocean volume transports across 30°N and 32°S are largest within the density classes that correspond to mode waters. In the North Pacific, the buoyancy flux converts the near-surface waters mostly to denser water classes, whereas in the Southern Ocean the surface waters are transformed both to lighter and denser water classes, depending on the density. In response to a doubling of CO2, the subduction, transformation, and transport of mode waters in both hemispheres shift to lighter densities but do not change significantly, whereas the subduction of intermediate waters decreases. The area of large winter mixed layer depths decreases, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. In the low latitudes, the thermocline water flux that enters the tropical Pacific via the western boundary flows generally increases. However, its anomaly has a complex structure, so that integrated estimates can be sensitive to the isopycnal ranges. The upper part of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) strengthens in the warmer climate, whereas its lower part weakens. The anomaly in the EUC closely follows the anomaly in stratification along the equator. The Indonesian Throughflow transport decreases with part of it being redirected eastward. This part joins with the intensified equatorward thermocline flows at the western boundaries and contributes to the EUC anomaly.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-05-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2015
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 10-10-2013
Abstract: Abstract. It is vital to understand how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has responded to past changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings, in order to better understand and predict its response to future greenhouse warming. To date, however, the instrumental record is too brief to fully characterize natural ENSO variability, while large discrepancies exist amongst paleo-proxy reconstructions of ENSO. These paleo-proxy reconstructions have typically attempted to reconstruct ENSO's temporal evolution, rather than the variance of these temporal changes. Here a new approach is developed that synthesizes the variance changes from various proxy data sets to provide a unified and updated estimate of past ENSO variance. The method is tested using surrogate data from two coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations. It is shown that in the presence of dating uncertainties, synthesizing variance information provides a more robust estimate of ENSO variance than synthesizing the raw data and then identifying its running variance. We also examine whether good temporal correspondence between proxy data and instrumental ENSO records implies a good representation of ENSO variance. In the climate modeling framework we show that a significant improvement in reconstructing ENSO variance changes is found when combining information from erse ENSO-teleconnected source regions, rather than by relying on a single well-correlated location. This suggests that ENSO variance estimates derived from a single site should be viewed with caution. Finally, synthesizing existing ENSO reconstructions to arrive at a better estimate of past ENSO variance changes, we find robust evidence that the ENSO variance for any 30 yr period during the interval 1590–1880 was considerably lower than that observed during 1979–2009.
Publisher: American Physical Society (APS)
Date: 30-05-2007
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-06-2017
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-08-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088466
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 30-09-2020
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-2014
Abstract: This study uses a global ocean eddy-permitting climate model to explore the export of abyssal water from the Southern Ocean and its sensitivity to projected twenty-first-century poleward-intensifying Southern Ocean wind stress. The abyssal flow pathways and transport are investigated using a combination of Lagrangian and Eulerian techniques. In an Eulerian format, the equator- and poleward flows within similar abyssal density classes are increased by the wind stress changes, making it difficult to explicitly diagnose changes in the abyssal export in a meridional overturning circulation framework. Lagrangian particle analyses are used to identify the major export pathways of Southern Ocean abyssal waters and reveal an increase in the number of particles exported to the subtropics from source regions around Antarctica in response to the wind forcing. Both the Lagrangian particle and Eulerian analyses identify transients as playing a key role in the abyssal export of water from the Southern Ocean. Wind-driven modifications to the potential energy component of the vorticity balance in the abyss are also found to impact the Southern Ocean barotropic circulation.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 24-07-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL082999
Abstract: Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) transport across the Antarctic continental slope regulates the delivery of heat to the shelf and its availability to melt floating ice shelves. The cross‐slope density field, calculated from profiles collected by conductivity‐temperature‐depth‐tagged marine mammals on the East Antarctic slope (0–160°E, above 1,000‐ to 3,000‐m isobaths), indicates eddy‐driven overturning: onshore transport of CDW and offshore transport of shallower Antarctic Surface Water. Enhanced eddy activity, determined by a spice standard deviation threshold in the CDW layer, is present over about a third of the East Antarctic slope analyzed. Significantly stronger CDW transport in regions of elevated spice variability produces subsurface temperature anomalies of 0.2–0.25 °C relative to the East Antarctic average. Estimating eddy diffusivity from the hydrography yields about 0.8 m 2 /s of warm CDW transport to the shelf break in high‐variability regions. Variability of eddy‐induced CDW transport influences the reservoir of heat available for transport across the shelf break.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2009
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-2008
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2017
Abstract: In a comment on a 2017 paper by Cheung et al., Kravtsov states that the results of Cheung et al. are invalidated by errors in the method used to estimate internal variability in historical surface temperatures, which involves using the ensemble mean of simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to estimate the forced signal. Kravtsov claims that differences between the forced signals in the in idual models and as defined by the multimodel ensemble mean lead to errors in the assessment of internal variability in both model simulations and the instrumental record. Kravtsov proposes a different method, which instead uses CMIP5 models with at least four realizations to define the forced component. Here, it is shown that the conclusions of Cheung et al. are valid regardless of whether the method of Cheung et al. or that of Kravtsov is applied. Furthermore, many of the points raised by Kravtsov are discussed in Cheung et al., and the disagreements of Kravtsov appear to be mainly due to a misunderstanding of the aims of Cheung et al.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-05-2015
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00110.1
Abstract: This study explores how buoyancy-driven modulations in the abyssal overturning circulation affect Southern Ocean temperature and salinity in an eddy-permitting ocean model. Consistent with previous studies, the modeled surface ocean south of 50°S cools and freshens in response to enhanced surface freshwater fluxes. Paradoxically, upper-ocean cooling also occurs for small increases in the surface relaxation temperature. In both cases, the surface cooling and freshening trends are linked to reduced convection and a slowing of the abyssal overturning circulation, with associated changes in oceanic transport of heat and salt. For small perturbations, convective shutdown does not begin immediately, but instead develops via a slow feedback between the weakened overturning circulation and buoyancy anomalies. Two distinct phases of surface cooling are found: an initial smaller trend associated with the advective (overturning) adjustment of up to ~60 yr, followed by more rapid surface cooling during the convective shutdown period. The duration of the first advective phase decreases for larger forcing perturbations. As may be expected during the convective shutdown phase, the deep ocean warms and salinifies for both types of buoyancy perturbation. However, during the advective phase, the deep ocean freshens in response to freshwater perturbations but salinifies in the surface warming perturbations. The magnitudes of the modeled surface and abyssal trends during the advective phase are comparable to the recent observed multidecadal Southern Ocean temperature and salinity changes.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 21-10-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071134
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 13-11-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088692
Abstract: Rapid increases in upper 700‐m Indian Ocean heat content (IOHC) since the 2000s have focused attention on its role during the recent global surface warming hiatus. Here, we use ocean model simulations to assess distinct multidecadal IOHC variations since the 1960s and explore the relative contributions from wind stress and buoyancy forcing regionally and with depth. Multidecadal wind forcing counteracted IOHC increases due to buoyancy forcing from the 1960s to the 1990s. Wind and buoyancy forcing contribute positively since the mid‐2000s, accounting for the drastic IOHC change. Distinct timing and structure of upper ocean temperature changes in the eastern and western Indian Ocean are linked to the pathway how multidecadal wind forcing associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is transmitted and affects IOHC through local and remote winds. Progressive shoaling of the equatorial thermocline—of importance for low‐frequency variations in Indian Ocean Dipole occurrence—appears to be dominated by multidecadal variations in wind forcing.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-09-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-022-32540-5
Abstract: Since the 1970s, the ocean has absorbed almost all of the additional energy in the Earth system due to greenhouse warming. However, sparse observations limit our knowledge of where ocean heat uptake (OHU) has occurred and where this heat is stored today. Here, we equilibrate a reanalysis-forced ocean-sea ice model, using a spin-up that improves on earlier approaches, to investigate recent OHU trends basin-by-basin and associated separately with surface wind trends, thermodynamic properties (temperature, humidity and radiation) or both. Wind and thermodynamic changes each explain ~ 50% of global OHU, while Southern Ocean forcing trends can account for almost all of the global OHU. This OHU is enabled by cool sea surface temperatures and sensible heat gain when atmospheric thermodynamic properties are held fixed, while downward longwave radiation dominates when winds are fixed. These results address long-standing limitations in multidecadal ocean-sea ice model simulations to reconcile estimates of OHU, transport and storage.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2022JC018962
Abstract: The Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) and Antarctic Coastal Current advect heat, freshwater, nutrients, and biological organisms westward around the Antarctic margin, providing a connective link between different sectors of the continental shelf. Yet the strength and pathways of connectivity around the continent, and the timescales of advection, remain poorly understood. We use daily velocity fields from a global high‐resolution ocean‐sea ice model, combined with Lagrangian particle tracking, to shed light on these timescales and improve our understanding of circumpolar connectivity around Antarctica. Virtual particles were released along vertical transects over the continental shelf every 5 days for a year and were tracked forward in time for 21 years. Analysis of the resulting particle trajectories highlights that the West Antarctic sector has widespread connectivity with all regions of the Antarctic shelf. Advection around the continent is typically rapid with peak transit times of 1–5 years for particles to travel 90° of longitude downstream. The ASC plays a key role in driving connectivity in East Antarctica and the Weddell Sea, while the Coastal Current controls connectivity in West Antarctica, the eastern Antarctic Peninsula, and along the continental shelf east of Prydz Bay. Connectivity around the shelf is impeded in two main locations, namely, the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula and Cape Adare in the Ross Sea, where significant export of water from the continental shelf is found. These findings help to understand the locations and timescales over which anomalies, such as meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, can be redistributed downstream.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001873
Abstract: Climate models exhibit a broad range in the simulated properties of the climate system. In the early historical period, the absolute global mean surface air temperature in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models spans a range of ∼12°C – 15°C. Other climate variables may be linked to global mean temperature, and so accurate representation of the baseline climate state is crucial for meaningful future climate projections. In CMIP5 baseline climate states, statistically significant intermodel correlations between Southern Ocean surface temperature, outgoing shortwave radiation, cloudiness, the position of the mid‐latitude eddy‐driven jet, and Antarctic sea ice area are found. The baseline temperature relationships extend to projected future changes in the same set of variables, impacting on the projected global mean surface temperature change. Models with initially cooler Southern Ocean tend to exhibit more global warming, and vice versa for initially warmer models. These relationships arise due to a “capacity for change”. For ex le, cold‐biased models tend to have more cloud cover, sea ice, and equatorward jet initially, and thus a greater capacity to lose cloud cover and sea ice, and for the jet to shift poleward under global warming. A first look at emerging data from CMIP6 reveals a shift of the relationship from the Southern Ocean towards the Antarctic region, possibly due to reductions in Southern Ocean biases, such as in westerly wind representation.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-11-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070847
Abstract: A gridded product of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the eastern Pacific is constructed to assess the dominant mode of tropical cyclone (TC) activity variability. Results of an empirical orthogonal function decomposition and regression analysis of environmental variables indicate that the two dominant modes of ACE variability (40% of the total variance) are related to different flavors of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The first mode, more active during the later part of the hurricane season (September–November), is linked to the eastern Pacific El Niño through the delayed oceanic control associated with the recharge‐discharge mechanism. The second mode, dominant in the early months of the hurricane season, is related to the central Pacific El Niño mode and the associated changes in atmospheric variability. A multilinear regression forecast model of the dominant principal components of ACE variability is then constructed. The wintertime subsurface state of the eastern equatorial Pacific (characterizing ENSO heat discharge), the east‐west tilt of the thermocline (describing ENSO phase transition), the anomalous ocean surface conditions in the TC region in spring (portraying atmospheric changes induced by persistence of local surface anomalies), and the intraseasonal atmospheric variability in the western Pacific are found to be good predictors of TC activity. Results complement NOAA's official forecast by providing additional spatial and temporal information. They indicate a more active 2016 season (~2 times the ACE mean) with a spatial expansion into the central Pacific associated with the heat discharge from the 2015/2016 El Niño.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 13-04-2021
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2012
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00105.1
Abstract: A number of global surface wind datasets are available that are commonly used to examine climate variability or trends and as boundary conditions for ocean circulation models. However, discrepancies exist among these products. This study uses observed Archiving, Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic (AVISO) sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs) as a means to help constrain the fidelity of these products in the tropical region. Each wind stress product is used to force a linear shallow water model (SWM) and the resulting hindcast thermocline depth anomalies are converted to SSHAs. The resulting SSHAs are then assessed to see how well they reproduce the dominant EOF modes of observed variability and the regional (global mean removed) sea level trend (1993–2007) in each of the three ocean basins. While the results suggest that all wind datasets reproduce the observed interannual variability with reasonable fidelity, the two SWM hindcasts that produce the observed linear trend with the highest fidelity are those incorporating interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and Wave- and Anemometer-Based Sea Surface Wind (WASWind) forcing. The role of surface wind forcing (i.e., upper ocean heat content redistribution) versus global mean sea level change (i.e., including the additional contributions of glacier and ice sheet melt along with ocean thermal expansion) on the recent dramatic increase in western equatorial Pacific island sea level is then reassessed. The results suggest that the recent sea level increase cannot be explained solely by wind stress forcing, regardless of the dataset used rather, the global mean sea level signal is required to fully explain this observed recent abrupt sea level rise and to better explain the sea level variability of the last 50–60 years.
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 05-2020
Abstract: Mid-depth heat transport toward Antarctica is focused in “cold” regions, mechanically forced by overflowing dense water.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 12-2012
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 31-08-1994
DOI: 10.1007/S00585-994-0812-Y
Abstract: Abstract. The circulation in the South Atlantic Ocean has been simulated within a global ocean general circulation model. Preliminary analysis of the modelled ocean circulation in the region indicates a rather close agreement of the simulated upper ocean flows with conventional notions of the large-scale geostrophic currents in the region. The modelled South Atlantic Ocean witnesses the return flow and export of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) at its northern boundary, the inflow of a rather barotropic Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) through the Drake Passage, and the inflow of warm saline Agulhas water around the Cape of Good Hope. The Agulhas leakage amounts to 8.7 Sv, within recent estimates of the mass transport shed westward at the Agulhas retroflection. Topographic steering of the ACC dominates the structure of flow in the circumpolar ocean. The Benguela Current is seen to be fed by a mixture of saline Indian Ocean water (originating from the Agulhas Current) and fresher Subantarctic surface water (originating in the ACC). The Benguela Current is seen to modify its flow and fate with depth near the surface it flows north-westwards bifurcating most of its transport northward into the North Atlantic Ocean (for ultimate replacement of North Atlantic surface waters lost to the NADW conveyor). Deeper in the water column, more of the Benguela Current is destined to return with the Brazil Current, though northward flows are still generated where the Benguela Current extension encounters the coast of South America. At intermediate levels, these northward currents trace the flow of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) equatorward, though even more AAIW is seen to recirculate poleward in the subtropical gyre. In spite of the model's rather coarse resolution, some subtle features of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence are simulated rather well, including the latitude at which the two currents meet. Conceptual diagrams of the recirculation and interocean exchange of thermocline, intermediate and deep waters are constructed from an analysis of flows bound between isothermal and isobaric surfaces. This analysis shows how the return path of NADW is partitioned between a cold water route through the Drake Passage (6.5 Sv), a warm water route involving the Agulhas Current sheeding thermocline water westward (2.5 Sv), and a recirculation of intermediate water originating in the Indian Ocean (1.6 Sv).
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 19-08-2016
Abstract: Anomalous conditions in the tropical oceans, such as those related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean dipole, have been previously blamed for extended droughts and wet periods in Australia. Yet the extent to which Australian wet and dry spells can be driven by internal atmospheric variability remains unclear. Natural variability experiments are examined to determine whether prolonged extreme wet and dry periods can arise from internal atmospheric and land variability alone. Results reveal that this is indeed the case however, these dry and wet events are found to be less severe than in simulations incorporating coupled oceanic variability. Overall, ocean feedback processes increase the magnitude of Australian rainfall variability by about 30% and give rise to more spatially coherent rainfall impacts. Over mainland Australia, ocean interactions lead to more frequent extreme events, particularly during the rainy season. Over Tasmania, in contrast, ocean–atmosphere coupling increases mean rainfall throughout the year. While ocean variability makes Australian rainfall anomalies more severe, droughts and wet spells of duration longer than three years are equally likely to occur in both atmospheric- and ocean-driven simulations. Moreover, they are essentially indistinguishable from what one expects from a Gaussian white noise distribution. Internal atmosphere–land-driven megadroughts and megapluvials that last as long as ocean-driven events are also identified in the simulations. This suggests that oceanic variability may be less important than previously assumed for the long-term persistence of Australian rainfall anomalies. This poses a challenge to accurate prediction of long-term dry and wet spells for Australia.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-04-2013
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00683.1
Abstract: The North Atlantic climate response to the catastrophic drainage of proglacial Lake Agassiz into the Labrador Sea is analyzed with coarse and ocean eddy-permitting versions of a global coupled climate model. The North Atlantic climate response is qualitatively consistent in that a large-scale cooling is simulated regardless of the model resolution or region of freshwater discharge. However, the magnitude and duration of the North Atlantic climate response is found to be sensitive to model resolution and the location of freshwater forcing. In particular, the long-term entrainment of freshwater along the boundary at higher resolution and its gradual, partially eddy-driven escape into the interior leads to low-salinity anomalies persisting in the subpolar Atlantic for decades longer. As a result, the maximum decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the ocean meridional heat transport (MHT) is lified by about a factor of 2 at ocean eddy-permitting resolution, and the recovery is delayed relative to the coarse grid model. This, in turn, increases the long-term cooling in the high-resolution simulations. A decomposition of the MHT response reveals an increased role for transients and the horizontal mean component of MHT at higher resolution. With fixed wind stress curl, it is a stronger response of bottom pressure torque to the freshwater forcing at higher resolution that leads to a larger anomaly of the depth-integrated circulation.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-2009
Abstract: This study explores the impact of meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients across the eastern Indian Ocean on interannual variations in Australian precipitation. Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are conducted in which the sign and magnitude of eastern Indian Ocean SST gradients are perturbed. This results in significant rainfall changes for western and southeastern Australia. A reduction (increase) in the meridional SST gradient drives a corresponding response in the atmospheric thickness gradients and results in anomalous dry (wet) conditions over Australia. During simulated wet years, this seems to be due to westerly anomalies in the thermal wind over Australia and anomalous onshore moisture advection, with a suggestion that the opposite occurs during dry conditions. Thus, an asymmetry is seen in the magnitude of the forced circulation and precipitation response between the dry and wet simulations. To assess the relative contribution of the SST anomalies making up the meridional gradient, the SST pattern is decomposed into its constituent “poles,” that is, the eastern tropical pole off the northwest shelf of Australia versus the southern pole in the central subtropical Indian Ocean. Overall, the simulated Australian rainfall response is linear with regard to the sign and magnitude of the eastern Indian Ocean SST gradient. The tropical eastern pole has a larger impact on the atmospheric circulation and Australian precipitation changes relative to the southern subtropical pole. However, there is clear evidence of the importance of the southern pole in enhancing the Australian rainfall response, when occurring in conjunction with but of opposite sign to the eastern tropical pole. The observed relationship between the meridional SST gradient in the eastern Indian Ocean and rainfall over western and southeastern Australia is also analyzed for the period 1970–2005. The observed relationship is found to be consistent with the AGCM results.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-01-2016
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-11-2013
DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058104
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2008
Abstract: The role played by Southern Hemisphere sea ice in the global climate system is explored using an earth system climate model of intermediate complexity. An ensemble of experiments is analyzed in which freshwater forcing equivalent to a complete 100-yr meltback of Southern Hemisphere sea ice is applied to a model run that simulates the present climate. This freshwater forcing acts to mildy subdue Southern Ocean deep overturning, reducing mean Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) export by 0.5 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the ensemble average. The decreased convective overturning cools the surface waters, thereby increasing sea ice volume and thus forming a negative feedback that stabilizes Antarctic sea ice. In contrast, the reduced convective overturn warms subsurface waters in the Southern Ocean, which, combined with the imposed freshening, results in a reduction in the meridional steric height gradient and hence a slowdown of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The reduction in ACC strength is, however, only modest at 1.5 Sv. These responses are thus of only weak magnitude, and the system recovers to its original state over time scales of decades. An extreme scenario experiment with essentially instantaneous addition of this meltwater load shows similar results, indicating the limited response of the climate system to the freshening implied by Antarctic sea ice melt. An additional experiment in which a much larger freshwater forcing of approximately 0.4 Sv is applied over 100 yr confirms the relatively weak response of the model’s climate state to such forcing, relative to the well-documented climatic effects of freshwater forcing added to the North Atlantic.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2021JC017858
Abstract: Subtropical western boundary currents (WBCs) are often associated with hotspots of global warming, with certain WBC extension regions warming 3–4 times faster than the global mean. In the Southern Hemisphere, strong warming over the WBC extensions has been observed over the last few decades, with enhanced warming projected into the future. This lified warming has primarily been linked to poleward intensification of the mid‐latitude westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere. Changes in these winds are often thought of as being zonally symmetric however, recent studies show that they contain strong zonal asymmetries in certain ocean basins. The importance of these zonal asymmetries for the Southern Ocean has not yet been investigated. In this study, we use an ocean‐sea‐ice model forced by prescribed atmospheric fields to quantify the contribution of projected zonally asymmetric atmospheric changes in generating future ocean warming and circulation changes in the subtropical WBC regions. We find that the zonally asymmetric component of atmospheric forcing, characterized by a pattern that is consistent across CMIP6 models, can explain more than 30% ( °C) of the sea surface temperature (SST) warming found in the Tasman Sea and southern Australia region and a sizable fraction of warming in the Agulhas Current region. These changes in SST in both the Indian and Pacific basins are found to be primarily driven by increases in the advection of warm tropical water to the mid‐latitudes due to changes in the large‐scale subtropical ocean gyres, which in turn can largely be explained by changes in the mid‐latitude surface wind stress patterns.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 19-12-2007
Abstract: Abstract. An eddying global model is used to study the characteristics of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) in a streamline-following framework. Previous model-based estimates of the meridional circulation were calculated using zonal averages: this method leads to a counter-intuitive poleward circulation of the less dense waters, and underestimates the eddy effects. We show that on the contrary, the upper ocean circulation across streamlines agrees with the theoretical view: an equatorward mean flow partially cancelled by a poleward eddy mass flux. Two model simulations, in which the buoyancy forcing above the ACC changes from positive to negative, suggest that the relationship between the residual meridional circulation and the surface buoyancy flux is not as straightforward as assumed by the simplest theoretical models: the sign of the residual circulation cannot be inferred from the surface buoyancy forcing only. Among the other processes that likely play a part in setting the meridional circulation, our model results emphasize the complex three-dimensional structure of the ACC (probably not well accounted for in streamline-averaged, two-dimensional models) and the distinct role of temperature and salinity in the definition of the density field. Heat and salt transports by the time-mean flow are important even across time-mean streamlines. Heat and salt are balanced in the ACC, the model drift being small, but the nonlinearity of the equation of state cannot be ignored in the density balance.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 19-12-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066608
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 27-04-2013
DOI: 10.1002/GRL.50264
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 22-03-2021
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 06-2017
Abstract: Low-frequency internal climate variability (ICV) plays an important role in modulating global surface temperature, regional climate, and climate extremes. However, it has not been completely characterized in the instrumental record and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble. In this study, the surface temperature ICV of the North Pacific (NP), North Atlantic (NA), and Northern Hemisphere (NH) in the instrumental record and historical CMIP5 all-forcing simulations is isolated using a semiempirical method wherein the CMIP5 ensemble mean is applied as the external forcing signal and removed from each time series. Comparison of ICV signals derived from this semiempirical method as well as from analysis of ICV in CMIP5 preindustrial control runs reveals disagreement in the spatial pattern and litude between models and instrumental data on multidecadal time scales ( yr). Analysis of the litude of total variability and the ICV in the models and instrumental data indicates that the models underestimate ICV litude on low-frequency time scales ( yr in the NA yr in the NP), while agreement is found in the NH variability. A multiple linear regression analysis of ICV in the instrumental record shows that variability in the NP drives decadal-to-interdecadal variability in the NH, whereas the NA drives multidecadal variability in the NH. Analysis of the CMIP5 historical simulations does not reveal such a relationship, indicating model limitations in simulating ICV. These findings demonstrate the need to better characterize low-frequency ICV, which may help improve attribution and decadal prediction.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-03-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-020-2084-4
Abstract: The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects climate and rainfall across the world, and most severely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 20-01-2012
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 02-11-2020
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-2010
DOI: 10.1029/2010GL045261
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 13-10-2015
Abstract: Separating low-frequency internal variability of the climate system from the forced signal is essential to better understand anthropogenic climate change as well as internal climate variability. Here both synthetic time series and the historical simulations from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) are used to examine several methods of performing this separation. Linear detrending, as is commonly used in studies of low-frequency climate variability, is found to introduce large biases in both litude and phase of the estimated internal variability. Using estimates of the forced signal obtained from ensembles of climate simulations can reduce these biases, particularly when the forced signal is scaled to match the historical time series of each ensemble member. These so-called scaling methods also provide estimates of model sensitivities to different types of external forcing. Applying the methods to observations of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation leads to different estimates of the phase of this mode of variability in recent decades.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 29-03-2022
Publisher: Authorea, Inc.
Date: 09-02-2023
DOI: 10.22541/ESSOAR.167591098.80596021/V1
Abstract: Recent ice loss on the western Antarctic Peninsula has been driven by warming ocean waters on the continental shelf. However, due to the short observational record, our understanding of the dynamics and variability in this region remains poor. High-resolution ocean model simulations show that the temperature variability along the western Antarctic Peninsula is controlled by the rate of dense water formation in the Weddell Sea. Passive tracer advection reveals connectivity between the Weddell Sea and the coastline of the western Antarctic Peninsula and Bellingshausen Sea. During multi-year periods of weak Weddell dense water formation, dense overflow transport in the Weddell Sea decreases, while the transport of cold water around the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula strengthens, driving a temperature decrease of 0.4C along the western Antarctic Peninsula. This mechanism implies that western Antarctic Peninsula coastal ocean temperature may cool in the future if Weddell Dense Shelf Water production slows down.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 19-05-2020
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-2008
Abstract: The potential impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in modulating midlatitude precipitation across southern and western regions of Australia is assessed in a series of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. Two sets of AGCM integrations forced with a seasonally evolving characteristic dipole pattern in Indian Ocean SST consistent with observed “dry year” (PDRY) and “wet year” (PWET) signatures are shown to induce precipitation changes across western regions of Australia. Over Western Australia, a significant shift occurs in the winter and annual rainfall frequency with the distribution becoming skewed toward less (more) rainfall for the PDRY (PWET) SST pattern. For southwest Western Australia (SWWA), this shift primarily is due to the large-scale stable precipitation. Convective precipitation actually increases in the PDRY case over SWWA forced by local positive SST anomalies. A mechanism for the large-scale rainfall shifts is proposed, by which the SST anomalies induce a reorganization of the large-scale atmospheric circulation across the Indian Ocean basin. Thickness (1000–500 hPa) anomalies develop in the atmosphere mirroring the sign and position of the underlying SST anomalies. This leads to a weakening (strengthening) of the meridional thickness gradient and the subtropical jet during the austral winter in PDRY (PWET). The subsequent easterly offshore (westerly onshore) anomaly in the thermal wind over southern regions of Australia, along with a decrease (increase) in baroclinicity, results in the lower (higher) levels of large-scale stable precipitation. Variations in the vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere overlying the SST anomalies favor localized increased convective activity in PDRY because of differential temperature lapse rates. In contrast, enhanced widespread ascent of moist air masses associated with frontal movement in PWET accounts for a significant increase in rainfall in that ensemble set.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 04-2003
DOI: 10.1029/2002GL016516
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2023JC019774
Abstract: Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is a major component of the global overturning circulation, originating around the Antarctic continental margin. In recent decades AABW has both warmed and freshened, but there is also evidence of large interannual variability. The causes of this underlying variability are not yet fully understood, in part due to a lack of ocean and air‐sea‐ice flux measurements in the region. Here, we simulate the formation and export of AABW from 1958 to 2018 using a global, eddying ocean–sea‐ice model in which the four AABW formation regions and transports agree reasonably well with observations. The simulated formation and export of AABW exhibits strong interannual variability which is not correlated between the different formation regions. Reservoirs of very dense waters at depth in the Weddell and Ross Seas following 1–2 years of strong surface water mass transformation can lead to higher AABW export for up to a decade. In Prydz Bay and at the Adélie Coast in contrast, dense water reservoirs do not persist beyond 1 year which we attribute to the narrower shelf extent in the East Antarctic AABW formation regions. The main factor controlling years of high AABW formation are weaker easterly winds, which reduce sea ice import into the AABW formation region, leaving increased areas of open water primed for air‐sea buoyancy loss and convective overturning. Our study highlights the variability of simulated AABW formation in all four formation regions, with potential implications for interpreting trends in observational data using only limited duration and coverage.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-2018
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-018-0173-4
Abstract: We present two narratives on the future of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, from the perspective of an observer looking back from 2070. In the first scenario, greenhouse gas emissions remained unchecked, the climate continued to warm, and the policy response was ineffective this had large ramifications in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, with worldwide impacts. In the second scenario, ambitious action was taken to limit greenhouse gas emissions and to establish policies that reduced anthropogenic pressure on the environment, slowing the rate of change in Antarctica. Choices made in the next decade will determine what trajectory is realized.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 2014
DOI: 10.1002/2013PA002542
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 05-2005
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3322.1
Abstract: The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) variability is assessed using a retrospective analysis of the global ocean based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) experiment spanning the period 1950–99. A comparison between the 1983–95 observed ITF, and the simulated ITF suggests a reasonably accurate reconstruction of ocean circulation in the vicinity of the ITF during the available measurement record. A wavelet analysis shows that once the seasonal cycle is removed, the dominant variation of the ITF anomaly is an interannual oscillation with a period of about 4–7 yr. This interannual variability is significantly correlated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern, with the ITF lagging the ENSO cycle by 8–9 months. This suggests that large-scale tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction plays an important role in the interannual variability of the ITF. Regional upper-ocean heat content variability might also play a role in controlling interannual fluctuations of the ITF transport via geostrophic flows, though it could equally be ITF variations that establish heat content anomalies downstream of the Indonesian archipelago. The model heat transport associated with the ITF is in good agreement with the limited observational record available. Resultant variability in annual mean ITF heat transport is in the range 0.4–1.2 PW, which is significantly correlated with ITF and ENSO indices.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2008
Abstract: A previous study by Mikolajewicz suggested that the wind stress feedback stabilizes the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. This result was obtained under modern climate conditions, for which the presence of the massive continental ice sheets characteristic of glacial times is missing. Here a coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model of intermediate complexity, set up in an idealized spherical sector geometry of the Atlantic basin, is used to show that, under glacial climate conditions, wind stress feedback actually reduces the stability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The analysis reveals that the influence of the wind stress feedback on the glacial MOC response to an external source of freshwater applied at high northern latitudes is controlled by the following two distinct processes: 1) the interactions between the wind field and the sea ice export in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and 2) the northward Ekman transport in the tropics and upward Ekman pumping in the core of the NH subpolar gyre. The former dominates the response of the coupled system it delays the recovery of the MOC, and in some cases even stabilizes collapsed MOC states achieved during the hosing period. The latter plays a minor role and mitigates the impact of the former process by reducing the upper-ocean freshening in deep-water formation regions. Hence, the wind stress feedback delays the recovery of the glacial MOC, which is the opposite of what occurs under modern climate conditions. Close to the critical transition threshold beyond which the circulation collapses, the glacial MOC appears to be very sensitive to changes in surface wind stress forcing and exhibits, in the aftermath of the freshwater pulse, a nonlinear dependence upon the wind stress feedback magnitude: a complete and irreversible MOC shutdown occurs only for intermediate wind stress feedback magnitudes. This behavior results from the competitive effects of processes 1 and 2 on the midlatitude upper-ocean salinity during the shutdown phase of the MOC. The mechanisms presented here may be relevant to the large meltwater pulses that punctuated the last glacial period.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 25-01-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-06-2016
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-2006
DOI: 10.1175/JPO2856.1
Abstract: Generalized stability theory is applied to a simple dynamical model of interannual ocean–atmosphere variability in the southern midlatitudes to determine the perturbations that create the most rapid growth of energy in the system. The model is composed of a barotropic quasigeostrophic atmosphere coupled to a 1.5-layer quasigeostrophic ocean, each linearized about a zonally invariant mean state, and with atmospheric and ocean surface temperature obeying a simple heat balance. Eigenanalysis of the system reveals modes of interannual variability that resemble the so-called Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW), consistent with an earlier analytical study of the system. The optimal excitation of these modes relative to an energy norm is found to be a perturbation almost entirely restricted to the ocean momentum field and is shown to resemble strongly the optimal perturbations in energy for the system. Over interannual time scales most rapid growth is seen in zonal wavenumbers 4–6, despite the fact that the least-d ed eigenmodes of the system are of a lower zonal wavenumber. The rapid transient growth in energy occurs by extracting perturbation energy from the mean state through advection of the mean meridional oceanic temperature gradient. This transient growth of high-zonal-wavenumber modes dominates the model’s variability when it is forced by noise that is white in space or time. A dominant low-zonal-wavenumber response, consistent with the observed and modeled ACW, occurs only when the forcing is red in space or time, with decorrelation scales greater than 3 yr or 10 000 km. It is concluded that, if the ACW is a coupled mode analogous to that supported in this simple model, then it is excited by other large-scale phenomena such as ENSO rather than by sources of higher-frequency forcing.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 10-04-2018
Abstract: Abstract. An increasing number of Southern Ocean models now include Antarctic ice-shelf cavities, and simulate thermodynamics at the ice-shelf/ocean interface. This adds another level of complexity to Southern Ocean simulations, as ice shelves interact directly with the ocean and indirectly with sea ice. Here, we present the first model intercomparison and evaluation of present-day ocean/sea-ice/ice-shelf interactions, as simulated by two models: a circumpolar Antarctic configuration of MetROMS (ROMS: Regional Ocean Modelling System coupled to CICE: Community Ice CodE) and the global model FESOM (Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model), where the latter is run at two different levels of horizontal resolution. From a circumpolar Antarctic perspective, we compare and evaluate simulated ice-shelf basal melting and sub-ice-shelf circulation, as well as sea-ice properties and Southern Ocean water mass characteristics as they influence the sub-ice-shelf processes. Despite their differing numerical methods, the two models produce broadly similar results and share similar biases in many cases. Both models reproduce many key features of observations but struggle to reproduce others, such as the high melt rates observed in the small warm-cavity ice shelves of the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas. Several differences in model design show a particular influence on the simulations. For ex le, FESOM's greater topographic smoothing can alter the geometry of some ice-shelf cavities enough to affect their melt rates this improves at higher resolution, since less smoothing is required. In the interior Southern Ocean, the vertical coordinate system affects the degree of water mass erosion due to spurious diapycnal mixing, with MetROMS' terrain-following coordinate leading to more erosion than FESOM's z coordinate. Finally, increased horizontal resolution in FESOM leads to higher basal melt rates for small ice shelves, through a combination of stronger circulation and small-scale intrusions of warm water from offshore.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 23-04-2021
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-05-2006
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3700.1
Abstract: Interannual rainfall extremes over southwest Western Australia (SWWA) are examined using observations, reanalysis data, and a long-term natural integration of the global coupled climate system. The authors reveal a characteristic dipole pattern of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during extreme rainfall years, remarkably consistent between the reanalysis fields and the coupled climate model but different from most previous definitions of SST dipoles in the region. In particular, the dipole exhibits peak litudes in the eastern Indian Ocean adjacent to the west coast of Australia. During dry years, anomalously cool waters appear in the tropical/subtropical eastern Indian Ocean, adjacent to a region of unusually warm water in the subtropics off SWWA. This dipole of anomalous SST seesaws in sign between dry and wet years and appears to occur in phase with a large-scale reorganization of winds over the tropical/subtropical Indian Ocean. The wind field alters SST via anomalous Ekman transport in the tropical Indian Ocean and via anomalous air–sea heat fluxes in the subtropics. The winds also change the large-scale advection of moisture onto the SWWA coast. At the basin scale, the anomalous wind field can be interpreted as an acceleration (deceleration) of the Indian Ocean climatological mean anticyclone during dry (wet) years. In addition, dry (wet) years see a strengthening (weakening) and coinciding southward (northward) shift of the subpolar westerlies, which results in a similar southward (northward) shift of the rain-bearing fronts associated with the subpolar front. A link is also noted between extreme rainfall years and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Namely, in some years the IOD acts to reinforce the eastern tropical pole of SST described above, and to strengthen wind anomalies along the northern flank of the Indian Ocean anticyclone. In this manner, both tropical and extratropical processes in the Indian Ocean generate SST and wind anomalies off SWWA, which lead to moisture transport and rainfall extremes in the region. An analysis of the seasonal evolution of the climate extremes reveals a progressive lification of anomalies in SST and atmospheric circulation toward a wintertime maximum, coinciding with the season of highest SWWA rainfall. The anomalies in SST can appear as early as the summertime months, however, which may have important implications for predictability of SWWA rainfall extremes.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-07-2021
Abstract: Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) forms in deep mixed layers just north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in winter, playing a fundamental role in the ocean uptake of heat and carbon. Using a gridded Argo product and the ERA-Interim reanalysis for years 2004-2018, the seasonal evolution of the SAMW volume is analyzed using both a kinematic estimate of the subduction rate and a thermodynamic estimate of the air-sea formation rate. The seasonal SAMW volume changes are separately estimated within the monthly mixed layer and in the interior below it. We find that the variability of SAMW volume is dominated by changes in SAMW volume in the mixed layer. The seasonal variability of SAMW volume in the mixed layer is governed by formation due to air-sea buoyancy fluxes (45%, lasting from July to August), entrainment (35%), and northward Ekman transport across the Subantarctic Front (10%). The interior SAMW formation is entirely controlled by exchanges between the mixed layer and the interior (i.e. instantaneous subduction), which occurs mainly during August-October. The annual mean subduction estimate from a Lagrangian approach shows strong regional variability with hotspots of large SAMW subduction. The SAMW subduction hotspots are consistent with the distribution and export pathways of SAMW over the central and eastern parts of the south Indian and Pacific Oceans. Hotspots in the south Indian Ocean produce strong subduction of 8 and 9 Sv for the light and southeast Indian SAMW, respectively, while SAMW subduction of 6 and 4 Sv occurs for the central and southeast Pacific SAMW, respectively.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 23-10-2011
DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1296
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-10-2017
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 19-06-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL082671
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-2007
Abstract: A high-resolution, offline ocean general circulation model, incorporating a realistic parameterization of mixed layer convection, is used to diagnose pathways and time scales of Southern Hemisphere intermediate, mode, and lower thermocline water ventilation. The use of such an offline methodology represents the only feasible way of simulating the long time scales required to validate the internal pathways of a high-resolution ocean model. Simulated and observed chlorofluorocarbon-11 (CFC-11) are in reasonably good agreement, demonstrating the model’s skill in representing realistic ventilation. Regional passive dye and age tracer experiments aid in the identification of pathways originating from different Southern Hemisphere locations. Northern Hemisphere penetration of intermediate, mode, and thermocline waters is most extensive and rapid into the North Atlantic Ocean because these waters are involved in closing the Atlantic meridional overturning cell. However, less than 8% of this ventilation is derived from subduction within the South Atlantic in the simulation. Instead, this water enters the Atlantic just to the south of South Africa, having originally subducted primarily in the east Indian Ocean, but also in the west Indian Ocean and the west Pacific region where a pathway advects water westward to the south of Australia. This pathway also plays a large part, together with water overturned in the east Indian Ocean, in ventilating the northern reaches of the Indian basin. Northward propagation in the Pacific Ocean is limited to the low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and is almost exclusively accomplished by water subducted in the South Pacific. A small contribution is made from the other basins from water that spreads northward, fed by a circumpolar pathway associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current that forms a conduit for intermediate and mode water exchange between all three basins. Intermediate water is injected into and branches off this pathway in all basins, but most vigorously in the southeastern Pacific.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-10-2022
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-09-2010
Abstract: The objective of this study is to investigate the mechanisms that cause the anomalous intensification of tropical Australian rainfall at the height of the monsoon during El Niño Modoki events. In such events, northwestern Australia tends to be wetter in January and February when the SST warming is displaced to the central west Pacific, the opposite response to that associated with a traditional El Niño. In addition, during the bounding months, that is, December and March, there is below-average rainfall induced by an anomalous Walker circulation. This behavior tends to narrow and intensify the annual rainfall cycle over northwestern Australia relative to the climatology, causing a delayed monsoonal onset and an earlier retreat over the region. Observational datasets and numerical experiments with a general circulation model are used to examine the atmospheric response to the central west Pacific SST warming. It is shown here that the increase of precipitation, particularly in February, is phased locked to the seasonal cycle when the intertropical convergence zone is displaced southward and the South Pacific convergence zone is strengthened. An interaction between the interannual SST variability associated with El Niño Modoki events and the evolution of the seasonal cycle intensifies deep convection in the central west Pacific, driving a Gill–Matsuno-type response to the diabatic heating. The westward-propagating disturbance associated with the Gill–Matsuno mechanism generates an anomalous cyclonic circulation over northwestern Australia, leading to convergence of moisture and increased precipitation. The Gill–Matsuno-type response overwhelms the subsidence of the anomalous Walker circulation associated with Modoki events over Australia during the peak of the monsoon.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 05-2010
Abstract: The last glacial period was punctuated by rapid climate shifts, known as Dansgaard–Oeschger events, with strong imprint in the North Atlantic sector suggesting that they were linked with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Here an idealized single-hemisphere three-dimensional ocean–atmosphere–sea ice coupled model is used to explore the possible origin of the instability driving these abrupt events and to provide a plausible explanation for the relative stability of the Holocene. Focusing on the physics of noise-free millennial oscillations under steady external (solar) forcing, it was shown that cold climates become unstable, that is, exhibit abrupt millennial-scale transitions, for significantly lower freshwater fluxes than warm climates, in agreement with previous studies making use of zonally averaged coupled models. This fundamental difference is a direct consequence of the weaker stratification of the glacial ocean, mainly caused by upper-ocean cooling. Using a two-hemisphere configuration of a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity, it is shown that this result is robust to the added presence of a bottom water mass of southern origin. The analysis reveals that under particular conditions, a pronounced interdecadal variability develops during warm interstadials. While the nature of the instability driving the millennial oscillations is identical to that found in ocean models under mixed boundary conditions, these interstadial–interdecadal oscillations share the same characteristics as those previously found in ocean models forced by fixed surface fluxes. The wind stress forcing is shown to profoundly affect both the properties and bifurcation structure of thermohaline millennial oscillations across a wide range of variation of freshwater forcing. In particular, it is shown that the wind stress forcing favors the maintenance of thermally direct meridional overturning circulations during the cold stadial phases of Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-07-2011
Abstract: This study investigates the impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the atmospheric circulation of the Southern Hemisphere during El Niño events, with a focus on Australian climate. During El Niño episodes, the tropical Indian Ocean exhibits two types of SST response: a uniform “basinwide warming” and a dipole mode—the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). While the impacts of the IOD on climate have been extensively studied, the effects of the basinwide warming, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, have received less attention. The interannual basinwide warming response has important implications for Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation because 1) it accounts for a greater portion of the Indian Ocean monthly SST variance than the IOD pattern and 2) its maximum litude occurs during austral summer to early autumn, when large parts of Australia, South America, and Africa experience their monsoon. Using observations and numerical experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model forced with historical SST from 1949 to 2005 over different tropical domains, the authors show that the basinwide warming leads to a Gill–Matsuno-type response that reinforces the anomalies caused by changes in the Pacific as part of El Niño. In particular, the basinwide warming drives strong subsidence over Australia, prolonging the dry conditions during January–March, when El Niño–related SST starts to decay. In addition to the anomalous circulation in the tropics, the basinwide warming excites a pair of barotropic anomalies in the Indian Ocean extratropics that induces an anomalous anticyclone in the Great Australian Bight.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 19-10-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL096092
Abstract: Inflow of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto the Antarctic continental shelf and into ice shelf cavities is a key driver of Antarctic ice shelf mass loss. While recent research has advanced understanding of CDW heat transport onto the continental shelf, the fate of CDW on the shelf is less understood. Here, we use Lagrangian particle tracking in an ocean‐sea ice model without ice shelf cavities to map the residence time of CDW on the Antarctic continental shelf. Mean residence times vary from 1 month in the East Antarctic to 1 year in the West Antarctic. In regions of dense water formation, transformation of CDW on the shelf limits access of CDW to ice shelves, despite strong onshore CDW heat transport. Elsewhere transformation of CDW on the shelf is weak, implying that temperature on the shelf is limited by heat transport onto the shelf or the offshore heat reservoir.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2009
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2013
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 07-2011
Start Date: 2017
End Date: 2023
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2003
End Date: 2005
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2006
End Date: 2008
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2005
End Date: 2007
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2005
End Date: 2010
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2018
End Date: 2021
Funder: Marsden Fund
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2004
End Date: 2009
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2008
End Date: 2010
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2011
End Date: 2017
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2003
End Date: 2003
Funder: Australian Research Council
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