ORCID Profile
0000-0003-1025-0807
Current Organisation
University of Tokyo
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Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 24-09-2021
DOI: 10.1186/S12199-021-00992-8
Abstract: Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate. Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its litude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics. The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27–1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50–1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44–1.48), respectively adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08–1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08–1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32–1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54–1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82–1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: − 1.24 to 1.48), respectively. Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its litude may be decreasing under a warming climate.
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 10-02-2020
DOI: 10.1136/BMJ.M108
Abstract: To assess short term mortality risks and excess mortality associated with exposure to ozone in several cities worldwide. Two stage time series analysis. 406 cities in 20 countries, with overlapping periods between 1985 and 2015, collected from the database of Multi-City Multi-Country Collaborative Research Network. Deaths for all causes or for external causes only registered in each city within the study period . Daily total mortality (all or non-external causes only). A total of 45 165 171 deaths were analysed in the 406 cities. On average, a 10 µg/m 3 increase in ozone during the current and previous day was associated with an overall relative risk of mortality of 1.0018 (95% confidence interval 1.0012 to 1.0024). Some heterogeneity was found across countries, with estimates ranging from greater than 1.0020 in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Estonia, and Canada to less than 1.0008 in Mexico and Spain. Short term excess mortality in association with exposure to ozone higher than maximum background levels (70 µg/m 3 ) was 0.26% (95% confidence interval 0.24% to 0.28%), corresponding to 8203 annual excess deaths (95% confidence interval 3525 to 12 840) across the 406 cities studied. The excess remained at 0.20% (0.18% to 0.22%) when restricting to days above the WHO guideline (100 µg/m 3 ), corresponding to 6262 annual excess deaths (1413 to 11 065). Above more lenient thresholds for air quality standards in Europe, America, and China, excess mortality was 0.14%, 0.09%, and 0.05%, respectively. Results suggest that ozone related mortality could be potentially reduced under stricter air quality standards. These findings have relevance for the implementation of efficient clean air interventions and mitigation strategies designed within national and international climate policies.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2023
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 24-03-2021
DOI: 10.1136/BMJ.N534
Abstract: To evaluate the short term associations between nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries/regions worldwide, using a uniform analytical protocol. Two stage, time series approach, with overdispersed generalised linear models and multilevel meta-analysis. 398 cities in 22 low to high income countries/regions. Daily deaths from total (62.8 million), cardiovascular (19.7 million), and respiratory (5.5 million) causes between 1973 and 2018. On average, a 10 μg/m 3 increase in NO 2 concentration on lag 1 day (previous day) was associated with 0.46% (95% confidence interval 0.36% to 0.57%), 0.37% (0.22% to 0.51%), and 0.47% (0.21% to 0.72%) increases in total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. These associations remained robust after adjusting for co-pollutants (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm or ≤2.5 μm (PM 10 and PM 2.5 , respectively), ozone, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide). The pooled concentration-response curves for all three causes were almost linear without discernible thresholds. The proportion of deaths attributable to NO 2 concentration above the counterfactual zero level was 1.23% (95% confidence interval 0.96% to 1.51%) across the 398 cities. This multilocation study provides key evidence on the independent and linear associations between short term exposure to NO 2 and increased risk of total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting that health benefits would be achieved by tightening the guidelines and regulatory limits of NO 2 .
Publisher: Environmental Health Perspectives
Date: 11-2019
DOI: 10.1289/EHP4898
Publisher: Environmental Health Perspectives
Date: 16-03-2018
DOI: 10.1289/EHP2223
Publisher: Environmental Health Perspectives
Date: 10-2017
DOI: 10.1289/EHP.ISEE2017
Abstract: The 29th Annual Scientific Conference of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology was held 24–28 September 2017 in Sydney, Australia. The conference theme was "Healthy Places, Healthy People—Where Are the Connections?" The focus of this year's conference was the recognition that there are many different places (the natural environment, the built environment, and the social environment) and many different people (the young, the old, the disadvantaged, and the marginalized), and that the connections between them may be physical, psychological, social, or political.
Publisher: Environmental Health Perspectives
Date: 26-08-2016
DOI: 10.1289/EHP.ISEE2016
Abstract: The 28th annual conference of the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology was held 1 - 4 September 2016 in Rome, Italy. The conference theme was "Old and New Risks: Challenges for Environmental Epidemiology." The focus of this year's conference is current and future challenges in exposure assessment, study design, and data analyses.
Publisher: American Thoracic Society
Date: 15-10-2022
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-11-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-019-53838-3
Abstract: Although there have been enormous demands and efforts to develop an early warning system for malaria, no sustainable system has remained. Well-organized malaria surveillance and high-quality climate forecasts are required to sustain a malaria early warning system in conjunction with an effective malaria prediction model. We aimed to develop a weather-based malaria prediction model using a weekly time-series data including temperature, precipitation, and malaria cases from 1998 to 2015 in Vhembe, Limpopo, South Africa and apply it to seasonal climate forecasts. The malaria prediction model performed well for short-term predictions (correlation coefficient, r 0.8 for 1- and 2-week ahead forecasts). The prediction accuracy decreased as the lead time increased but retained fairly good performance (r 0.7) up to the 16-week ahead prediction. The demonstration of the malaria prediction process based on the seasonal climate forecasts showed the short-term predictions coincided closely with the observed malaria cases. The weather-based malaria prediction model we developed could be applicable in practice together with skillful seasonal climate forecasts and existing malaria surveillance data. Establishing an automated operating system based on real-time data inputs will be beneficial for the malaria early warning system, and can be an instructive ex le for other malaria-endemic areas.
Publisher: Environmental Health Perspectives
Date: 06-2020
DOI: 10.1289/EHP5312
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2007
DOI: 10.1016/J.JCV.2007.08.017
Abstract: Difficulties in the classification of dengue infection have been documented. Such difficulties could be due to the low awareness of the World Health Organization diagnostic guidelines among clinicians. To study the diagnostic practices of clinicians in classifying patients as dengue fever (DF) or dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF)/dengue shock syndrome (DSS) at the time of discharge during an outbreak. A prospective descriptive study of clinical features and disease classification in adult and pediatric dengue patients in the University of Malaya Medical Centre. Five hundred and twenty adult and 191 pediatric patients were enrolled. Thrombocytopenia and evidence of plasma leakage were present in 8% of adult and 19% of pediatric patients. Of these, 93% and 49%, respectively, were given the discharge diagnoses of DF instead of DHF/DSS. Hemoconcentration, serous effusion and thrombocytopenia were not recognized in clinicians' discharge diagnosis of DHF/DSS for adult patients. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve suggested a lack of consistency in the use of WHO guidelines in establishing DHF/DSS in adult patients, while implying otherwise for pediatric patients. DHF/DSS is an under-recognized condition by clinicians managing these patients. This can affect the case fatality rate of DHF/DSS and the economic burden of the disease. The lack of awareness in disease manifestations especially plasma leakage, can lead to delayed recognition of DHF/DSS.
Publisher: Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Date: 24-09-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2023
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 04-10-2023
Publisher: Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Date: 07-12-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2023
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2023
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: No location found
No related grants have been discovered for Chris Fook Sheng Ng.