ORCID Profile
0000-0003-1907-060X
Current Organisations
University of Bern
,
Universitat Bern
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Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 19-04-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-022-29677-8
Abstract: Annual-to-decadal variability in northern midlatitude temperature is dominated by the cold season. However, climate field reconstructions are often based on tree rings that represent the growing season. Here we present cold-season (October-to-May average) temperature field reconstructions for the northern midlatitudes, 1701-1905, based on extensive phenological data (freezing and thawing dates of rivers, plant observations). Northern midlatitude land temperatures exceeded the variability range of the 18th and 19th centuries by the 1940s, to which recent warming has added another 1.5 °C. A sequences of cold winters 1808/9-1815/6 can be explained by two volcanic eruptions and unusual atmospheric flow. Weak southwesterlies over Western Europe in early winter caused low Eurasian temperatures, which persisted into spring even though the flow pattern did not. Twentieth century data and model simulations confirm this persistence and point to increased snow cover as a cause, consistent with sparse information on Eurasian snow in the early 19th century.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-03-2022
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU22-9639
Abstract: & & Annual-to-decadal variability in northern midlatitude temperature is predominantly dominated by the cold season. However, climate field reconstructions, which are essential for understanding the underlying mechanisms, are often based on tree rings. These mainly represent the growing season and allow limited insight on cold season effects. Plant and ice phenology data, on the other hand, are a rich source of cold season information that remains largely overlooked in climate reconstructions to date and could help to fill the seasonal gap. Here, we present Northern Hemispheric temperature field reconstructions for the extended cold season (October-to-May average) for 1701-1905 based entirely on phenological data. Time series of freezing and thawing dates of rivers together with a few early-spring plant observations covering a large area of the northern midlatitudes are used in a simple data assimilation framework.& br& The reconstructions allow a 320-yr perspective of climate variability and change of boreal cold season climate and unveil that the temperature of the northern midlatitude land areas exceeded the variability range of the 18th and 19th centuries by the 1940s, to which recent warming has added another 1.5 & #176 C. We also find 5-10 year long sequences of cold northern midlatitude winters. The most prominent ex le lasted from 1808/9 to 1815/6. The conspicuously cooling during that period is associated with two volcanic eruptions (1808/9 and 1815), which caused cooling as a direct effect. The years between the eruptions are characterized by weak southwesterly atmospheric flow over the Atlantic-European sector in early winter. This lead to low Eurasian temperatures, which persisted into spring while the flow pattern did not. Twentieth century data and model simulations confirm this persistence and point to increased snow cover as a cause. This is consistent with independent information on Eurasian snow in the early 19th century.& &
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-386
Abstract: The Modern Era Reanalysis (ModE-RA) extends current re-analysis back until the year 1420 CE at monthly resolution. It combines our understanding of physics coming from an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations with all available direct and indirect climate observations of monthly to annual resolution. A 20-member ensemble of atmospheric model simulations (ModE-Sim) driven by an ensemble of external forcings and an ensemble of new sea surface temperature reconstructions serves as a prior estimate of the possible climate states at each assimilation time step. After the entire simulations were completed, we assimilated multiple data sources using an offline Kalman filtering technique. We include up to ~100000 monthly to annual observations per year. These consist of thousands of existing and newly digitised instrumental measurements of temperature, precipitation, wet days per months, and pressure, including measurements made on ships over the ocean and in harbours. Earliest instrumental station data go back to the year 1658. Additionally, we collected and digitised climate information from historical documents, including phenological data. These are especially valuable for the autumn, winter and spring season and go back to the year 1420. Finally, we assimilate annually resolved climate proxies. The vast majority are tree-ring observations, which represent growing season conditions on the continents. In otherwise data sparse regions, we supplemented ice and coral data at high latitudes and the tropical oceans, respectively. ModE-RA offers especially & insides into interannual to multidecadal variability such as phases of accelerated warming, monsoon strength or subtropical droughts as well as rare events such as volcanic eruptions.&
Location: Germany
No related grants have been discovered for Eric Samakinwa.