Publication
Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events in a warmer climate : robust versus uncertain changes with a large convection-permitting model ensemble
Publisher:
Authorea, Inc.
Date:
20-07-2023
DOI:
10.22541/ESSOAR.168987136.64498273/V1
Abstract: Taking advantage of a large ensemble of Convection Permitting-Regional Climate Models on a pan-Alpine domain and of an object-oriented dedicated analysis, this study aims to investigate future changes in the high-impact fall Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events at high warming levels. We identify a robust multi-model agreement for an increased frequency from central Italy to the northern Balkans combined with a substantial extension of the affected areas, a dominant influence of the driving Global Climate Models for projecting changes in the frequency, an increase in intensity, area, volume and severity over the French Mediterranean. However, large quantitative uncertainties persist despite the use of convection-permitting models, with no clear agreement in frequency changes over southeastern France and a large range of plausible changes in events’ properties, including for the most intense events. Model ersity and international coordination are still needed to provide policy-relevant climate information regarding precipitation extremes.