ORCID Profile
0000-0002-3477-4069
Current Organisation
Australian Antarctic Division
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Oceanography | Water Resources Engineering | Surfacewater Hydrology | Information Storage, Retrieval And Management | Palaeoclimatology | Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience | Oceanography Not Elsewhere Classified | Physical Oceanography | Glaciology | Climatology (Incl. Palaeoclimatology) | Climate Change Processes
Climate variability | Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Environments (excl. Social Impacts) | Climate change | Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts) | Information processing services | Natural Hazards in Urban and Industrial Environments | Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences | Expanding Knowledge in the Earth Sciences |
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 02-11-2017
Abstract: Abstract. Ice sheets provide exceptional archives of past changes in polar climate, regional environment and global atmospheric composition. The oldest dated deep ice core drilled in Antarctica has been retrieved at EPICA Dome C (EDC), reaching ∼ 800 000 years. Obtaining an older paleoclimatic record from Antarctica is one of the greatest challenges of the ice core community. Here, we use internal isochrones, identified from airborne radar coupled to ice-flow modelling to estimate the age of basal ice along transects in the Dome C area. Three glaciological properties are inferred from isochrones: surface accumulation rate, geothermal flux and the exponent of the Lliboutry velocity profile. We find that old ice ( 1.5 Myr, 1.5 million years) likely exists in two regions: one ∼ 40 km south-west of Dome C along the ice ide to Vostok, close to a secondary dome that we name Little Dome C (LDC), and a second region named North Patch (NP) located 10–30 km north-east of Dome C, in a region where the geothermal flux is apparently relatively low. Our work demonstrates the value of combining radar observations with ice flow modelling to accurately represent the true nature of ice flow, and understand the formation of ice-sheet architecture, in the centre of large ice sheets.
Publisher: International Glaciological Society
Date: 09-2016
DOI: 10.1017/AOG.2016.31
Abstract: We present simulation results from a version of the Regional Ocean Modeling System modified for ice shelf/ocean interaction, including the parameterisation of basal melting by molecular diffusion alone. Simulations investigate the differences in melting for an idealised ice shelf experiencing a range of cold to hot ocean cavity conditions. Both the pattern of melt and the location of maximum melt shift due to changes in the buoyancy-driven circulation, in a different way to previous studies. Tidal forcing increases both the circulation strength and melting, with the strongest impact on the cold cavity case. Our results highlight the importance of including a complete melt parameterisation and tidal forcing. In response to the 2.4°C ocean warming initially applied to a cold cavity ice shelf, we find that melting will increase by about an order of magnitude (24 × with tides and 41 × without tides).
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 11-05-2016
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-20-1703-2016
Abstract: Abstract. Paleoclimate research indicates that the Australian instrumental climate record (∼ 100 years) does not cover the full range of hydroclimatic variability that is possible. To better understand the implications of this on catchment-scale water resources management, a 1013-year (1000–2012 common era (CE)) annual rainfall reconstruction was produced for the Williams River catchment in coastal eastern Australia. No high-resolution paleoclimate proxies are located in the region and so a teleconnection between summer sea salt deposition recorded in ice cores from East Antarctica and rainfall variability in eastern Australia was exploited to reconstruct the catchment-scale rainfall record. The reconstruction shows that significantly longer and more frequent wet and dry periods were experienced in the preinstrumental compared to the instrumental period. This suggests that existing drought and flood risk assessments underestimate the true risks due to the reliance on data and statistics obtained from only the instrumental record. This raises questions about the robustness of existing water security and flood protection measures and has serious implications for water resources management, infrastructure design and catchment planning. The method used in this proof of concept study is transferable and enables similar insights into the true risk of flood/drought to be gained for other paleoclimate proxy poor regions for which suitable remote teleconnected proxies exist. This will lead to improved understanding and ability to deal with the impacts of multi-decadal to centennial hydroclimatic variability.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 05-05-2017
Abstract: Abstract. Digital elevation models of Antarctic bed topography are smoothed and interpolated onto low-resolution ( 1 km) grids as current observed topography data are generally sparsely and unevenly s led. This issue has potential implications for numerical simulations of ice-sheet dynamics, especially in regions prone to instability where detailed knowledge of the topography, including fine-scale roughness, is required. Here, we present a high-resolution (100 m) synthetic bed elevation terrain for Antarctica, encompassing the continent, continental shelf, and seas south of 60° S. Although not identically matching observations, the synthetic bed surface – denoted as HRES – preserves topographic roughness characteristics of airborne and ground-based ice-penetrating radar data measured by the ICECAP (Investigating the Cryospheric Evolution of the Central Antarctic Plate) consortium or used to create the Bedmap1 compilation. Broad-scale ( 5 km resolution) features of the Antarctic landscape are incorporated using a low-pass filter of the Bedmap2 bed elevation data. HRES has applicability in high-resolution ice-sheet modelling studies, including investigations of the interaction between topography, ice-sheet dynamics, and hydrology, where processes are highly sensitive to bed elevations and fine-scale roughness. The data are available for download from the Australian Antarctic Data Centre (doi:10.4225/15/57464ADE22F50).
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 08-06-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-2023-872
Abstract: Abstract. The largest regional drivers of current surface elevation increases in the Antarctic Ice Sheet are associated with ice flow reconfiguration in previously active ice streams, highlighting the important role of ice dynamics in responding to climate change. Here, we investigate controls on the evolution of the flow configuration of the Vanderford and Totten Glaciers – key outlet glaciers of the Aurora Subglacial Basin, the most rapidly thinning region of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. We review factors that influence the ice flow in this region, and use an ice sheet model to investigate the sensitivity of the catchment ide location to thinning at Vanderford Glacier associated with ongoing retreat, and thickening at Totten Glacier associated with an intensification of the east-west snowfall gradient. The present-day catchment ide between the Totten and Vanderford Glaciers is not constrained by the geology or topography, but is determined by the large-scale ice sheet geometry and its long-term evolution in response to climate forcing. Furthermore, the catchment ide is subject to migration under relatively small changes in surface elevation, leading to ice flow and basal water piracy from Totten to Vanderford Glacier. Our findings show that ice flow reconfigurations do not only occur in regions of West Antarctica like the Siple Coast, but also in the east, motivating further investigations of past, and potential for future, ice flow reconfigurations around the whole Antarctic coastline. Such modelling of ice flow and basal water piracy may require coupled ice sheet thermomechanical and subglacial hydrology models, constrained by field observations of subglacial conditions. Our results also have implications for ice sheet mass budget studies that integrate over catchments, and the validity of the zero flow assumption when selecting sites for ice core records of past climate.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 23-12-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL096215
Abstract: The bathymetry under the Amery Ice Shelf steers the flow of ocean currents transporting ocean heat, and thus is a prerequisite for precise modeling of ice‐ocean interactions. However, h ered by thick ice, direct observations of sub‐ice‐shelf bathymetry are rare, limiting our ability to quantify the evolution of this sector and its future contribution to global mean sea level rise. We estimated the bathymetry of this region from airborne gravity anomaly using simulated annealing. Unlike the current model which shows a comparatively flat seafloor beneath the calving front, our estimation results reveal a 255‐m‐deep shoal at the western side and a 1,050‐m‐deep trough at the eastern side, which are important topographic features controlling the ocean heat transport into the sub‐ice cavity. The new model also reveals previously unknown depressions and sills that are critical to an improved modeling of the sub‐ice‐shelf ocean circulation and induced basal melting.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2006
Publisher: Geological Society of America
Date: 22-12-2016
DOI: 10.1130/G37220.1
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 14-04-2014
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059405
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2003
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 14-08-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022GL098539
Abstract: Antarctic geothermal heat flow (GHF) affects the thermal regime of ice sheets and simulations of ice and subglacial meltwater discharge to the ocean, but remains poorly constrained. We use an ice sheet model to investigate the impact of GHF anomalies on subglacial meltwater production in the Aurora Subglacial Basin, East Antarctica. We find that spatially‐variable GHF fields produce more meltwater than a constant GHF with the same background mean, and meltwater production increases as the resolution of GHF anomalies increases. Our results suggest that model simulations of this region systematically underestimate meltwater production using current GHF models. We determine the minimum basal heating required to bring the basal ice temperature to the pressure melting point, which should be taken together with the scale‐length of likely local variability in targeting in‐situ GHF field c aigns.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-11-2013
Abstract: Abstract. The Totten Glacier drains a large proportion of the East Antarctic ice sheet, much of it marine based (grounded below sea level), and is rapidly losing mass. It has been suggested that this mass loss is driven by changes in oceanic forcing however, the details of the ice-ocean interaction are unknown. Here we present results from an ice shelf-ocean model of the region that includes the Totten, Moscow University and Dalton Ice Shelves, based on the Regional Oceanic Modeling System for the period 1992–2007. Simulated area-averaged basal melt rates (net basal mass loss) for the Totten and Dalton ice shelves are 9.1 m ice yr−1 (44.5 Gt ice yr−1) and 10.1 m ice yr−1 (46.6 Gt ice yr−1), respectively. The melting of the ice shelves varies strongly on seasonal and interannual timescales. Basal melting (mass loss) from the Totten ice shelf spans a range of 5.7 m ice yr−1 (28 Gt ice yr−1) on interannual timescales and 3.4 m ice yr−1 (17 Gt ice yr−1) on seasonal timescales. This study links basal melt of the Totten and Dalton ice shelves to warm water intrusions across the continental shelf break and atmosphere-ocean heat exchange. Totten ice shelf melting is high when the nearby Dalton polynya interannual strength is below average, and vice versa. Melting of the Dalton ice shelf is primarily controlled by the strength of warm water intrusions across the Dalton Rise and into the ice shelf cavity. During periods of strong westwards coastal current flow, Dalton melt water flows directly under the Totten ice shelf further reducing melting. This is the first such modelling study of this region, providing a valuable framework for directing future observational and modelling efforts.
Publisher: Geological Society of London
Date: 12-07-2017
DOI: 10.1144/SP461.16
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-11-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2019RG000663
Abstract: The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is out of equilibrium with the current anthropogenic‐enhanced climate forcing. Paleoenvironmental records and ice sheet models reveal that the AIS has been tightly coupled to the climate system during the past and indicate the potential for accelerated and sustained Antarctic ice mass loss into the future. Modern observations by contrast suggest that the AIS has only just started to respond to climate change in recent decades. The maximum projected sea level contribution from Antarctica to 2100 has increased significantly since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report, although estimates continue to evolve with new observational and theoretical advances. This review brings together recent literature highlighting the progress made on the known processes and feedbacks that influence the stability of the AIS. Reducing the uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of the future sea level response to AIS change requires a multidisciplinary approach that integrates knowledge of the interactions between the ice sheet, solid Earth, atmosphere, and ocean systems and across time scales of days to millennia. We start by reviewing the processes affecting AIS mass change, from atmospheric and oceanic processes acting on short time scales (days to decades), through to ice processes acting on intermediate time scales (decades to centuries) and the response to solid Earth interactions over longer time scales (decades to millennia). We then review the evidence of AIS changes from the Pliocene to the present and consider the projections of global sea level rise and their consequences. We highlight priority research areas required to improve our understanding of the processes and feedbacks governing AIS change.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-04-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068436
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 11-02-2013
Abstract: Abstract. A borehole temperature record from the Mill Island (East Antarctica) icecap reveals a large surface warming signal manifested as a 0.75 K temperature difference over the approximate 100 m depth in the zone of zero annual litude below the seasonally varying zone. The temperature profile shows a break in gradient around 49 m depth, which we model with inverse numerical simulations, indicating that surface warming started around the austral summer of 1980/81 AD ±5 yr. This warming of approximately 0.37 K per decade is consistent with trends seen in both instrumental and other reconstructions for Antarctica and, therefore, suggests that regional- rather than local-scale processes are largely responsible. Alteration of the surface energy budget arising from changes in radiation balances due to local cloud, the amount of liquid deposition and local air temperatures associated with altered air/sea exchanges also potentially plays a role at this location due to the proximity of the Shackleton Ice Shelf and sea-ice zone.
Publisher: Geological Society of London
Date: 23-08-2017
DOI: 10.1144/SP461.6
Publisher: International Glaciological Society
Date: 2009
DOI: 10.3189/002214309790152474
Abstract: The loss of methanesul phonic acid (MSA) from stored ice cores can be significant over typical storage times, with diffusion to the ice-core surface controlling the loss. Methods for minimizing this loss are discussed and it is shown how measurements can be corrected by calculating the amount of MSA lost. A revised diffusion coefficient for MSA in solid ice, (4.1 × 10 −13 ) ± (2.5 × 10 −14 ) m 2 s −1 , is derived to improve such MSA loss corrections.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 20-07-2016
DOI: 10.5194/TC-2016-169
Abstract: Abstract. A high resolution (1 km line spacing) aerogeophysical survey was conducted over a region near the East Antarctic Ice Sheet's Dome C that may hold a 1.5 million year old climate record. New ice thickness data derived from an airborne coherent radar sounder was combined with unpublished data that was unavailable for earlier compilations. We find under the primary candidate region elevated rough topography, near a number of subglacial lakes, but also regions of smoother bed. The high resolution of this ice thickness dataset also allows us to explore the nature of ice thickness uncertainties in the context of radar geometry and processing.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2018
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-07-2018
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL078153
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 28-07-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073486
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 22-04-2020
DOI: 10.1017/JOG.2020.27
Abstract: Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is an important control on the dynamics of Antarctica's ice sheet because it controls basal melt and internal deformation. However, it is hard to estimate because of a lack of in-situ measurements. Estimating GHF from ice-borehole temperature profiles is possible by combining a heat-transfer equation and the physical properties of the ice sheet in a numerical model. In this study, we truncate ice-borehole temperature profiles to determine the minimum ratio of temperature profile depth to ice-sheet thickness required to produce acceptable GHF estimations. For Law Dome, a temperature profile that is within 60% of the local ice thickness is sufficient for an estimation that is within approximately one median absolute deviation of the whole-profile GHF estimation. This result is compared with the temperature profiles at Dome Fuji and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet ide which require a temperature profile that is 80% and more than 91% of the ice thickness, respectively, for comparable accuracy. In deriving GHF median estimations from truncated temperature profiles, it is possible to discriminate between available GHF models. This is valuable for assessing and constraining future GHF models.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 19-07-2022
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-14-3313-2022
Abstract: Abstract. Ice core records from Law Dome in East Antarctica collected over the last four decades provide high-resolution data for studies of the climate of Antarctica, Australia, and the Southern and Indo-Pacific oceans. Here, we present a set of annually dated records of trace chemistry, stable water isotopes and snow accumulation from Law Dome covering the period from −11 to 2017 CE (1961 to −66 BP 1950) and the level-1 chemistry data from which the annual chemistry records are derived. Law Dome ice core records have been used extensively in studies of the past climate of the Southern Hemisphere and in large-scale data syntheses and reconstructions in a region where few records exist, especially at high temporal resolution. This dataset provides an update and extensions both forward and back in time of previously published subsets of the data, bringing them together into a coherent set with improved dating to enable continued use of this record. The data are available for download from the Australian Antarctic Data Centre at 0.26179/5zm0-v192 (Curran et al., 2021).
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 10-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020JB019825
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-03-2015
DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2388
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2016
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 30-06-2020
Publisher: International Glaciological Society
Date: 2015
Abstract: Satellite altimetric time series allow high-precision monitoring of ice-sheet mass balance. Understanding elevation changes in these regions is important because outlet glaciers along ice-sheet margins are critical in controlling flow of inland ice. Here we discuss a new airborne altimetry dataset collected as part of the ICECAP (International Collaborative Exploration of the Cryosphere by Airborne Profiling) project over East Antarctica. Using the ALAMO (Airborne Laser Altimeter with Mapping Optics) system of a scanning photon-counting lidar combined with a laser altimeter, we extend the 2003–09 surface elevation record of NASA’s ICESat satellite, by determining cross-track slope and thus independently correcting for ICESat’s cross-track pointing errors. In areas of high slope, cross-track errors result in measured elevation change that combines surface slope and the actual Δ z/ Δ t signal. Slope corrections are particularly important in coastal ice streams, which often exhibit both rapidly changing elevations and high surface slopes. As a test case (assuming that surface slopes do not change significantly) we observe a lack of ice dynamic change at Cook Ice Shelf, while significant thinning occurred at Totten and Denman Glaciers during 2003–09.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-2011
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE10114
Abstract: The first Cenozoic ice sheets initiated in Antarctica from the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains and other highlands as a result of rapid global cooling ∼34 million years ago. In the subsequent 20 million years, at a time of declining atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and an evolving Antarctic circumpolar current, sedimentary sequence interpretation and numerical modelling suggest that cyclical periods of ice-sheet expansion to the continental margin, followed by retreat to the subglacial highlands, occurred up to thirty times. These fluctuations were paced by orbital changes and were a major influence on global sea levels. Ice-sheet models show that the nature of such oscillations is critically dependent on the pattern and extent of Antarctic topographic lowlands. Here we show that the basal topography of the Aurora Subglacial Basin of East Antarctica, at present overlain by 2-4.5 km of ice, is characterized by a series of well-defined topographic channels within a mountain block landscape. The identification of this fjord landscape, based on new data from ice-penetrating radar, provides an improved understanding of the topography of the Aurora Subglacial Basin and its surroundings, and reveals a complex surface sculpted by a succession of ice-sheet configurations substantially different from today's. At different stages during its fluctuations, the edge of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet lay pinned along the margins of the Aurora Subglacial Basin, the upland boundaries of which are currently above sea level and the deepest parts of which are more than 1 km below sea level. Although the timing of the channel incision remains uncertain, our results suggest that the fjord landscape was carved by at least two iceflow regimes of different scales and directions, each of which would have over-deepened existing topographic depressions, reversing valley floor slopes.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-12-2014
DOI: 10.1002/JQS.2683
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 03-03-2021
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU21-1809
Abstract: & & The Princess Elizabeth Land (PEL) sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, one of the largest grounded ice reservoirs in Antarctica, is adjacent to regions that experienced significant change during the last glacial maximum. The identification of subglacial water in PEL (to date only inferred from satellite image data) would provide important constraints on our estimation of the basal thermal condition in this region. Also, the existence of a large subglacial hydrology system in PEL comes with potential impacts on the basal melting rate and stability of downstream ice shelves, such as the West Ice Shelf. Here we present geophysical evidences confirming the existence of a large subglacial lake in PEL, hereby referred as Lake Snow Eagle (LSE), for the first time, using recently acquired aerogeophyscial data by international collaborations. We estimate LSE to be about 42 km in length and 370 km& sup& & /sup& in area, making it one of the largest subglacial lakes in Antarctica. LSE is shown to lie in a subglacial canyon system that is linked to the coastal ice shelves, which makes LSE the first known major Antarctic interior water body that has a potential direct hydrological pathway into the ocean. We then systematically investigate its geological characteristics and bathymetry by 2-D geophysics modellings. We estimate the water volume of LSE to be about 21 km& sup& & /sup& , while the sediment volume to be about 20 km& sup& & /sup& . Our geophysical modelling results also suggest that LSE is located along a compressional geologic boundary, indicating possible tectonic controls over LSE.& &
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 03-12-2015
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-02-2013
Abstract: Abstract. We present Bedmap2, a new suite of gridded products describing surface elevation, ice-thickness and the seafloor and subglacial bed elevation of the Antarctic south of 60° S. We derived these products using data from a variety of sources, including many substantial surveys completed since the original Bedmap compilation (Bedmap1) in 2001. In particular, the Bedmap2 ice thickness grid is made from 25 million measurements, over two orders of magnitude more than were used in Bedmap1. In most parts of Antarctica the subglacial landscape is visible in much greater detail than was previously available and the improved data-coverage has in many areas revealed the full scale of mountain ranges, valleys, basins and troughs, only fragments of which were previously indicated in local surveys. The derived statistics for Bedmap2 show that the volume of ice contained in the Antarctic ice sheet (27 million km3) and its potential contribution to sea-level rise (58 m) are similar to those of Bedmap1, but the mean thickness of the ice sheet is 4.6% greater, the mean depth of the bed beneath the grounded ice sheet is 72 m lower and the area of ice sheet grounded on bed below sea level is increased by 10%. The Bedmap2 compilation highlights several areas beneath the ice sheet where the bed elevation is substantially lower than the deepest bed indicated by Bedmap1. These products, along with grids of data coverage and uncertainty, provide new opportunities for detailed modelling of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheets.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 17-07-2023
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-15-2695-2023
Abstract: Abstract. One of the key components of this research has been the mapping of Antarctic bed topography and ice thickness parameters that are crucial for modelling ice flow and hence for predicting future ice loss and the ensuing sea level rise. Supported by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), the Bedmap3 Action Group aims not only to produce new gridded maps of ice thickness and bed topography for the international scientific community, but also to standardize and make available all the geophysical survey data points used in producing the Bedmap gridded products. Here, we document the survey data used in the latest iteration, Bedmap3, incorporating and adding to all of the datasets previously used for Bedmap1 and Bedmap2, including ice bed, surface and thickness point data from all Antarctic geophysical c aigns since the 1950s. More specifically, we describe the processes used to standardize and make these and future surveys and gridded datasets accessible under the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) data principles. With the goals of making the gridding process reproducible and allowing scientists to re-use the data freely for their own analysis, we introduce the new SCAR Bedmap Data Portal (bedmap.scar.org, last access: 1 March 2023) created to provide unprecedented open access to these important datasets through a web-map interface. We believe that this data release will be a valuable asset to Antarctic research and will greatly extend the life cycle of the data held within it. Data are available from the UK Polar Data Centre: data.bas.ac.uk (last access: 5 May 2023). See the Data availability section for the complete list of datasets.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-2007
DOI: 10.1175/JPO3012.1
Abstract: The large-scale volume, heat, and freshwater ocean transports in the Southern Hemisphere are investigated using time-averaged output from a seasonless, high-resolution general circulation model. The ocean circulation is realistic, and property transports are comparable to observations. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) carries 144 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) of water eastward across Drake Passage, increasing to 155 Sv south of Australia because of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). There is a clear Indo-Pacific gyre around Australia exchanging −10 Sv, 0.9 PW of heat, and 0.2 Sv of freshwater through the ITF, and there is a 9-Sv leakage from the Tasman Sea to the Indian Ocean. The transport of heat and freshwater by eddies is localized to the upper 1000 m of the water column and specific regions, such as western boundary currents, confluences, and the subantarctic front (SAF). Eddy transport of heat and freshwater is negligible in gyre interiors and south of the SAF but is vital across the northern edge of the ACC, in particular at the Agulhas Retroflection where eddies accomplish almost 100% of the net ocean heat and 60% of the southward freshwater transport. The eddy transport is almost zero across the latitude of Drake Passage while in a quasi-Lagrangian frame eddy transports are significant across the ACC but surprisingly are still smaller than the mean transport of heat. Mean and eddy property transport ergences are found to be strongly compensating in areas of high eddy activity. This is caused by increased baroclinic instability in strong mean flows, which induces an opposing eddy transport. This relationship is observed to be stronger in the case of horizontal heat transport than in corresponding horizontal freshwater transports.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-2008
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 16-01-2023
Abstract: Abstract. The discovery of Antarctica's deepest subglacial trough beneath the Denman Glacier, combined with high rates of basal melt at the grounding line, has caused significant concern over its vulnerability to retreat. Recent attention has therefore been focusing on understanding the controls driving Denman Glacier's dynamic evolution. Here we consider the Shackleton system, comprised of the Shackleton Ice Shelf, Denman Glacier, and the adjacent Scott, Northcliff, Roscoe and Apfel glaciers, about which almost nothing is known. We widen the context of previously observed dynamic changes in the Denman Glacier to the wider region of the Shackleton system, with a multi-decadal time frame and an improved biannual temporal frequency of observations in the last 7 years (2015–2022). We integrate new satellite observations of ice structure and airborne radar data with changes in ice front position and ice flow velocities to investigate changes in the system. Over the 60-year period of observation we find significant rift propagation on the Shackleton Ice Shelf and Scott Glacier and notable structural changes in the floating shear margins between the ice shelf and the outlet glaciers, as well as features indicative of ice with elevated salt concentration and brine infiltration in regions of the system. Over the period 2017–2022 we observe a significant increase in ice flow speed (up to 50 %) on the floating part of Scott Glacier, coincident with small-scale calving and rift propagation close to the ice front. We do not observe any seasonal variation or significant change in ice flow speed across the rest of the Shackleton system. Given the potential vulnerability of the system to accelerating retreat into the overdeepened, potentially sediment-filled bedrock trough, an improved understanding of the glaciological, oceanographic and geological conditions in the Shackleton system are required to improve the certainty of numerical model predictions, and we identify a number of priorities for future research. With access to these remote coastal regions a major challenge, coordinated internationally collaborative efforts are required to quantify how much the Shackleton region is likely to contribute to sea level rise in the coming centuries.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-11-2014
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 22-11-2022
Abstract: Abstract. Over the past 60 years, scientists have strived to understand the past, present and future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. One of the key components of this research has been the mapping of Antarctic bed topography and ice thickness parameters that are crucial for modelling ice flow and hence for predicting future ice loss and ensuing sea level rise. Supported by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), the Bedmap3 Action Group aims not only to produce new gridded maps of ice thickness and bed topography for the international scientific community, but also to standardize and make available all the geophysical survey data points used in producing the Bedmap gridded products. Here, we document the survey data used in the latest iteration, Bedmap3, incorporating and adding to all of the datasets previously used for Bedmap1 and Bedmap2, including ice-bed, surface and thickness point data from all Antarctic geophysical c aigns since the 1950s. More specifically, we describe the processes used to standardize and make these and future survey and gridded datasets accessible under the ‘Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable’ (FAIR) data principles. With the goals to make the gridding process reproducible and to allow scientists to re-use the data freely for their own analysis, we introduce the new SCAR Bedmap Data Portal (bedmap.scar.org, last access: 18 October 2022) created to provide unprecedented open access to these important datasets, through a user-friendly webmap interface. We believe that this data release will be a valuable asset to Antarctic research and will greatly extend the life cycle of the data held within it. Data are available from the UK Polar Data Centre: data.bas.ac.uk.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 04-07-2016
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-2016-18
Abstract: Abstract. Digital elevation models of Antarctic bed topography are heavily smoothed and interpolated onto low-resolution ( 1 km) grids as our current observed topography data are generally sparsely and unevenly s led. This issue has potential implications for numerical simulations of ice-sheet dynamics, especially in regions prone to instability where detailed knowledge of the topography, including fine-scale roughness, is required. Here, we present a high-resolution (100 m) synthetic bed elevation terrain for the whole Antarctic continent. The synthetic bed surface preserves topographic roughness characteristics of airborne and ground-based ice-penetrating radar data from the Bedmap1 compilation and the ICECAP consortium. Broad-scale features of the Antarctic landscape are incorporated using a low-pass filter of the Bedmap2 bed-elevation data. Although not intended as a substitute for Bedmap2, the simulated bed elevation terrain has applicability in high-resolution ice-sheet modelling studies, including investigations of the interaction between topography, ice-sheet dynamics, and hydrology, where processes are highly sensitive to bed elevations. The data are available for download at the Australian Antarctic Data Centre (doi:10.4225/15/57464ADE22F50).
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-07-2011
Abstract: Abstract. Ice thickness data over much of East Antarctica are sparse and irregularly distributed. This poses difficulties for reconstructing the homogeneous coverage needed to properly assess underlying sub-glacial morphology and fundamental geometric constraints on sea level rise. Here we introduce a new physically-based ice thickness interpolation scheme and apply this to existing ice thickness data in the Aurora Subglacial Basin region. The skill and robustness of the new reconstruction is demonstrated by comparison with new data from the ICECAP project. The interpolated morphology shows an extensive marine-based ice sheet, with considerably more area below sea-level than shown by prior studies. It also shows deep features connecting the coastal grounding zone with the deepest regions in the interior. This has implications for ice sheet response to a warming ocean and underscores the importance of obtaining additional high resolution data in these marginal zones for modelling ice sheet evolution.
Publisher: International Glaciological Society
Date: 2013
Abstract: We present a new method for extracting the direction of surface flow for ice sheets, based on the detection of flow-induced features that are visible in satellite imagery. The orientation of linear features is determined using a Radon transform and only requires a single image. The technique is demonstrated by applying it to the RADARSAT mosaic of Antarctica, over the Lambert Glacier–Amery Ice Shelf region of East Antarctica. Comparisons with both existing flow-direction fields and traced streamlines over the same area provide an evaluation of the method. We also illustrate its application to Landsat 7 imagery.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2016
Publisher: International Glaciological Society
Date: 2015
Abstract: In this study we compare the anisotropic flow relations for polycrystalline ice of Azuma and Goto-Azuma (1996), Thorsteinsson (2002), Placidi and others (2010) and Budd and others (2013). Observations from the Dome Summit South (DSS) ice-coring site at Law Dome, East Antarctica, are used to model the vertical distribution of deviatoric stress components at the borehole site. The flow relations in which the anisotropic rheology is parameterized by a scalar function, so that the strain-rate and deviatoric stress tensor components are collinear, provide simple shear and vertical compression deviatoric stress profiles that are most consistent with laboratory observations of tertiary creep in combined stress configurations. Those flow relations where (1) the anisotropy is derived from the magnitude of applied stresses resolved onto the basal planes of in idual grains and (2) the macroscopic deformation is obtained via homogenization of in idual grain responses provide stress estimates less consistent with laboratory observations. This is most evident in combined simple shear and vertical compression flow regimes where shear is dominant. Our results highlight the difficulties associated with developing flow relations which incorporate a physically based description of microdeformation processes. In particular, this requires that all relevant microdeformation, recrystallization and recovery processes are adequately parameterized.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 02-2005
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-3216
Abstract: Vanderford Glacier is one of the fastest retreating glaciers in East Antarctica, with approximately 18.6 km of grounding line retreat since 1996. Together with the Totten Glacier, the Vanderford Glacier is a key outlet glacier of the Aurora Subglacial Basin (ASB), which contains approximately 7 m of global sea level equivalent, of which ~3.5 m is vulnerable to ocean driven melting, and is rapidly losing mass. While the Totten Glacier currently discharges almost twice as much ice as the Vanderford Glacier, sediment records from the Sabrina and Knox Coast Sectors indicate that the Vanderford Glacier has had sedimentation rates over twice that at Totten in the past. Here, we examine the current flow configuration between Vanderford and Totten Glaciers and drivers of it, including interactions between the subglacial topography, hydraulic potential, climate, and ice sheet dynamics. We use the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) under experiments of heightened ocean warming concentrated at Vanderford Glacier, and heightened surface mass balance at Totten Glacier, to show that the present-day flow configuration between the Totten and Vanderford Glaciers is tenuous. Rerouting towards Vanderford Glacier could occur under even minor changes in surface elevation at both glaciers. Such rerouting potentially exposes large parts of the underbelly of the ASB to enhanced ocean-driven ice shelf melting in the event of rapid retreat of Vanderford Glacier, with implications for global sea level rise.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 14-08-2017
Abstract: Abstract. A high-resolution (1 km line spacing) aerogeophysical survey was conducted over a region near the East Antarctic Ice Sheet's Dome C that may hold a 1.5 Myr climate record. We combined new ice thickness data derived from an airborne coherent radar sounder with unpublished data that was in part unavailable for earlier compilations, and we were able to remove older data with high positional uncertainties. We generated a revised high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) to investigate the potential for an old ice record in this region, and used laser altimetry to confirm a Cryosat-2 derived DEM for inferring the glaciological state of the candidate area. By measuring the specularity content of the bed, we were able to find an additional 50 subglacial lakes near the candidate site, and by Doppler focusing the radar data, we were able to map out the roughness of the bed at length scales of hundreds of meters. We find that the primary candidate region contains elevated rough topography interspersed with scattered subglacial lakes and some regions of smoother bed. Free subglacial water appears to be restricted from bed overlain by ice thicknesses of less than 3000 m. A site near the ice ide was selected for further investigation. The high resolution of this ice thickness data set also allows us to explore the nature of ice thickness uncertainties in the context of radar geometry and processing.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-12-2019
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 22-11-2022
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 17-02-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S43247-022-00359-Z
Abstract: The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, an index which defines decadal climate variability throughout the Pacific, is generally assumed to have positive and negative phases that each last 20-30 years. Here we present a 2000-year reconstruction of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, obtained using information preserved in Antarctic ice cores, that shows negative phases are short (7 ± 5 years) and infrequent (occurring 10% of the time) departures from a predominantly neutral-positive state that lasts decades (61 ± 56 years). These findings suggest that Pacific Basin climate risk is poorly characterised due to over-representation of negative phases in post-1900 observations. We demonstrate the implications of this for eastern Australia, where drought risk is elevated during neutral-positive phases, and highlight the need for a re-evaluation of climate risk for all locations affected by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. The initiation and future frequency of negative phases should also be a research priority given their prevalence in more recent centuries.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021JF006332
Abstract: Ice deformation dominates the evolution of ice shelf flow and the slow‐moving regions in the interior of ice sheets. However, deformation may be poorly represented in large‐scale ice sheet models that use the Glen flow relation, due to its questionable applicability to the steady‐state flow of anisotropic ice that prevails in ice sheets, having been derived from secondary creep rates of isotropic ice. We assess the deformation regimes of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, using the Glen and “Empirical Scalar Tertiary Anisotropy Regime”, (ESTAR) flow relations, the latter being derived from steady‐state deformation rates of anisotropic ice. For grounded ice, the character of the flow relation determines the contribution of deformation to overall flow, with ESTAR producing greater bed‐parallel shear deformation than the standard Glen flow relation. The ESTAR experiments show larger basal shear stress maxima than the standard Glen experiment because ESTAR treats the responses to simple shear stresses and compression stresses differently, reducing the role of lateral and longitudinal stresses in momentum balance. On the Thwaites Glacier Tongue, ESTAR provides the best match to observed speeds by accounting for the differing effects of stresses on ice flow. Our results highlight the importance of the numerical description of anisotropy, particularly: In regions of transition from deformation‐dominated to sliding‐dominated flow in the approach to the grounding line, and across ice shelves. Given the importance of these locations in determining mass flux into the ocean, our results have implications for projections of sea level change from Antarctic ice loss.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 29-11-2020
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-24-5699-2020
Abstract: Abstract. Knowledge of past, current, and future hydroclimatic risk is of great importance. However, like many other countries, Australia's observed hydroclimate records are at best only ∼ 120 years long (i.e. from ∼ 1900 to the present) but are typically less than ∼ 50 years long. Therefore, recent research has focused on developing longer hydroclimate records based on palaeoclimate information from a variety of different sources. Here we review and compare the insights emerging from 11 published palaeoclimate records that are relevant for annual to sub-decadal hydroclimatic variability in eastern Australia over the last ∼ 1000 years. The sources of palaeoclimate information include ice cores, tree rings, cave deposits, and lake sediment deposits. The published palaeoclimate information was then analysed to determine when (and where) there was agreement (or uncertainty) about the timing of wet and dry epochs in the pre-instrumental period (1000–1899). The occurrence, frequency, duration, and spatial extent of pre-instrumental wet and dry epochs was then compared to wet and dry epochs since 1900. The results show that instrumental records (∼ 1900–present) underestimate (or at least misrepresent) the full range of rainfall variability that has occurred, and is possible, in eastern Australia. Even more disturbing is the suggestion, based on insights from the published palaeoclimate data analysed, that 71 % of the pre-instrumental period appears to have no equivalent in the instrumental period. This implies that the majority of the past 1000 years was unlike anything encountered in the period that informs water infrastructure, planning, and policy in Australia. A case study, using a typical water storage reservoir in eastern Australia, demonstrates that current water resource infrastructure and management strategies would not cope under the range of pre-instrumental conditions that this study suggests has occurred. When coupled with projected impacts of climate change and growing demands, these results highlight some major challenges for water resource management and infrastructure. Though our case study location is eastern Australia, these challenges, and the limitations associated with current methods that depend on instrumental records that are too short to realistically characterise interannual to multi-decadal variability, also apply globally.
Publisher: International Glaciological Society
Date: 2013
Abstract: Remote sensing of ice motion by tracking displacement of surface features is a valuable tool in glaciology. Efficient image feature-tracking programs, such as IMCORR, based on fast Fourier transform methods can produce misleading correlations if there are data gaps in either or both of the reference and search images. This is particularly problematic if the data gaps are regular in character, such as for Landsat7 images collected after the failure of the Scan Line Corrector (SLC-off images). We demonstrate that this situation can be alleviated by filling the data gaps with suitably chosen random data. We modified IMCORR to achieve this automatically (source code is included), but generic image-processing software could be used to modify inputs for other correlation packages. We test our method using images of Pine Island Ice Shelf, Antarctica, and document the acceleration of the velocity field for the floating extension of Pine Island Glacier over the decade 2001–11. We also combine our velocities with recent NASA Operation IceBridge ice thickness data from CReSIS to estimate the basal melt rates.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 03-12-2015
DOI: 10.5194/HESSD-12-12483-2015
Abstract: Abstract. Paleoclimate research indicates that the instrumental climate record (~100 years in Australia) does not cover the full range of hydroclimatic variability possible. To better understand the implications of this for catchment-scale water resources management, an annual rainfall reconstruction is produced for the Williams River catchment in coastal eastern Australia. No high resolution palaeoclimate proxies are located in the region and so a teleconnection between summer sea salt deposition recorded in ice cores from East Antarctica and rainfall variability in eastern Australia was exploited to reconstruct 1013 years of rainfall (AD 1000–2012). The reconstruction shows that significantly longer and more frequent wet and dry periods were experienced in the preinstrumental compared to the instrumental period. This suggests that existing drought and flood risk assessments underestimate the true risks due to the reliance on data and statistics obtained from only the instrumental record. This raises questions about the robustness of existing water security and flood protection measures and has serious implications for water resources management, infrastructure design, and catchment planning. The method used in this proof of concept study is transferable and enables similar insights into the true risk of flood/drought to be gained for other locations that are teleconnected to East Antarctica. This will lead to improved understanding and ability to deal with the impacts of multidecadal to centennial hydroclimatic variability.
Publisher: Geological Society of London
Date: 30-09-2014
DOI: 10.1144/JGS2013-030
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-11-2014
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate high resolution records of snow accumulation rates in Antarctica are crucial for estimating ice sheet mass balance and subsequent sea level change. Snowfall rates at Law Dome, East Antarctica, have been linked with regional atmospheric circulation to mid-latitudes as well as regional Antarctic snowfall. Here, we extend the Law Dome accumulation record from 750 to 2035 years, using recent annual layer dating that extends to AD −22. Accumulation rates were calculated as the ratio of measured to modelled layer thicknesses, multiplied by the long term mean accumulation rate. The modelled layer thicknesses were based on a power law vertical strain rate profile fitted to observed annual layer thickness. The periods AD 380–442, AD 727–783 and AD 1970–2009 have above average snow accumulation rates, while AD 663–704, AD 933–975 and AD 1429–1468 were below average. The calculated snow accumulation rates show good correlation with atmospheric reanalysis estimates, and significant spatial correlation over a wide expanse of East Antarctica, demonstrating that the Law Dome record captures larger scale variability across a large region of East Antarctica well beyond the immediate vicinity of the Law Dome summit. Spectral analysis reveals periodicities in the snow accumulation record which may be related to ENSO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation frequencies.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 18-05-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091790
Abstract: A major uncertainty in Antarctica's contribution to future sea‐level rise is the ice sheet response timescales to ocean warming. Totten Glacier drains a region containing 3.9 m global sea level equivalent and has been losing mass over recent decades. We use an ice sheet model coupled to an ice‐shelf cavity combined ocean box and plume model to investigate Totten's response to variable ocean forcing. Totten's grounding line is stable for a limited range of ocean temperatures near current observations (i.e., −0.95°C to −0.75°C), with topography influencing the discharge periodicity. For increases of ≥0.2°C in temperatures beyond this range, grounding line retreat occurs. Variable ocean forcing can reduce retreat relative to constant forcing, and different variability litudes can cause centennial‐scale delays in retreat through interactions with topography. Our results highlight the need for long‐term ocean state observations and to include forcing variability in ice sheet model simulations of future change.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-09-2020
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 28-05-2015
DOI: 10.1017/S0954102015000231
Abstract: Monitoring the rate of ice flow into ice shelves is vital to understanding how, where and when mass changes occur in Antarctica. Previous observations of ice surface velocity indicate that the Amery Ice Shelf and tributary glaciers have been relatively stable over the period 1968 to 1999. This study measured the displacement of features on the ice surface over a sequence of Landsat 7 images separated by approximately one year and spanning 2004 to 2012 using the surface feature tracking software IMCORR. The focus is on the region surrounding the southern grounding zone of the Amery Ice Shelf and its primary tributary glaciers: the Fisher, Lambert and Mellor glaciers. No significant changes in surface velocity were observed over this period. Accordingly, the velocity fields from each image pair between 2004 and 2012 were used to synthesize an average velocity dataset of the Amery Ice Shelf region and to compare it to previously published velocity datasets and in situ global positioning system velocity observations. No significant change in ice surface velocities was found between 2004 and 2012 in the Amery Ice Shelf region, which suggests that it continues to remain stable.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-03-2020
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-01-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062447
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 30-05-2017
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 28-10-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071063
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2012
DOI: 10.1029/2011JF002066
Publisher: International Glaciological Society
Date: 09-2016
DOI: 10.1017/AOG.2016.26
Abstract: Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is one of the key thermal boundary conditions for ice-sheet models. We assess the sensitivity of the Lambert-Amery glacial system in East Antarctica to four different GHF datasets using a regional ice-sheet model. A control solution of the regional model is initialised by minimising the misfit to observations through an optimisation process. The Lambert-Amery glacial system simulation contains temperate ice up to 150 m thick and has an average basal melt of 1.3 mm a −1 , with maximum basal melting of 504 mm a −1 . The simulations which use a relatively high GHF compared to the control solution increase the volume and area of temperate ice, which causes higher surface velocities at higher elevations, which leads to the advance of the grounding line. The grounding line advance leads to changes in the local flow configuration, which dominates the changes within the glacial system. To investigate the difference in spatial patterns within the geothermal datasets, they were scaled to have the same median value. These scaled GHF simulations showed that the ice flow was most sensitive to the spatial variation in the underlying GHF near the ice ides and on the edges of the ice streams.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-03-2022
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU22-10829
Abstract: & & The seafloor topography under the Amery Ice Shelf steers the flow of ocean currents transporting ocean heat, and thus is a prerequisite for precise modeling of ice-ocean interactions. However, h ered by thick ice, direct observations of sub-ice-shelf bathymetry are rare, limiting our ability to quantify the evolution of this sector and its future contribution to global mean sea level rise. We estimated the seafloor topography of this region from airborne gravity anomaly using simulated annealing. Unlike the current seafloor topography model which shows a comparatively flat seafloor beneath the calving front, our estimation results reveal a 255-m-deep shoal at the western side and a 1,050-m-deep trough at the eastern side, which are important topographic features controlling the ocean heat transport into the sub-ice cavity. The gravity-estimated seafloor topography model also reveals previously unknown depressions and sills in the middle of the Amery Ice Shelf, which are critical to an improved modeling of the sub-ice-shelf ocean circulation and induced basal melting. With the refined seafloor topography model, we anticipate an improved performance in modeling the response of the Amery Ice Shelf to ocean forcing.& &
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2015
Publisher: ASME International
Date: 04-09-2008
DOI: 10.1115/1.2969274
Abstract: The general performance of an asymmetric cavitation tunnel contraction is investigated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) including the effects of fluid viscosity and physical scale. The horizontal and vertical profiles of the contraction geometry were chosen from a family of four-term sixth-order polynomials based on results from a CFD analysis and a consideration of the wall curvature distribution and its anticipated influence on boundary layer behavior. Inviscid and viscous CFD analyses were performed. The viscous predictions were validated against boundary layer measurements on existing full-scale cavitation tunnel test section ceiling and floor and for the chosen contraction geometry against model-scale wind tunnel tests. The viscous analysis showed the displacement effect of boundary layers to have a fairing effect on the contraction profile that reduced the magnitude of local pressure extrema at the entrance and exit. The maximum pressure gradients and minimum achievable test section cavitation numbers predicted by the viscous analysis are correspondingly less than those predicted by the inviscid analysis. The prediction of cavitation onset is discussed in detail. The minimum cavitation number is shown to be a function of the Froude number based on the test section velocity and height that incorporate the effects of physical scale on cavitation tunnel performance.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-2014
DOI: 10.1002/JQS.2700
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 30-06-2020
Abstract: Abstract. Knowledge of past, current and future hydroclimatic risk is of great importance. However, like many other countries, Australia's observed hydroclimate records are at best only ~ 120 years long (i.e. from ~ 1900 to present) but are typically less than ~ 50 years long. Therefore, recent research has focused on developing longer hydroclimate records based on palaeoclimate information from a variety of different sources. Here we review and compare the insights emerging from 11 published palaeoclimate records that are relevant to annual to sub-decadal hydroclimatic variability in eastern Australia over the last ~ 1000 years. The sources of palaeoclimate information include ice cores, tree rings, cave deposits and lake sediment deposits. The published palaeoclimate information was then analysed to determine when (and where) there was agreement (or uncertainty) about the timing of wet and dry epochs in the pre-instrumental period (1000–1899). The occurrence, frequency, duration and spatial extent of pre-instrumental wet and dry epochs was then compared to wet and dry epochs since 1900. The results show that instrumental records (~ 1900–present) underestimate (or at least misrepresent) the full range of rainfall variability that has occurred, and is possible, in eastern Australia. Even more disturbing is the suggestion, based on insights from the published palaeoclimate data analysed, that 71 % of the pre-instrumental period appears to have no equivalent in the instrumental period. This implies that the majority of the past 1000 years was unlike anything encountered in the period that informs water infrastructure, planning and policy in Australia. A case study, using a typical water storage reservoir in eastern Australia, demonstrates that current water resource infrastructure and management strategies would not cope under the range of pre-instrumental conditions that this study suggests has occurred. When coupled with projected impacts of climate change and growing demands, these results highlight some major challenges for water resource management and infrastructure. Though our case study location is eastern Australia, these challenges, and the limitations associated with current methods that depend on instrumental records that are too short to realistically characterise interannual to multidecadal variability, also apply globally.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 17-04-2018
Abstract: Abstract. We reconstruct the pattern of surface accumulation in the region around Dome C, East Antarctica, since the last glacial. We use a set of 18 isochrones spanning all observable depths of the ice column, interpreted from various ice-penetrating radar surveys and a 1-D ice flow model to invert for accumulation rates in the region. The shallowest four isochrones are then used to calculate paleoaccumulation rates between isochrone pairs using a 1-D assumption where horizontal advection is negligible in the time interval of each layer. We observe that the large-scale (100s km) surface accumulation gradient is spatially stable through the last 73 kyr, which reflects current modeled and observed precipitation gradients in the region. We also observe small-scale (10 s km) accumulation variations linked to snow redistribution at the surface, due to changes in its slope and curvature in the prevailing wind direction that remain spatially stationary since the last glacial.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 17-06-2011
Abstract: Abstract. The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulations and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. This paper describes the model physics and software, analyses the control climatology, and evaluates the ability of the model to simulate the modern climate. Mk3L incorporates a spectral atmospheric general circulation model, a z-coordinate ocean general circulation model, a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model and a land surface scheme with static vegetation. The source code is highly portable, and has no dependence upon proprietary software. The model distribution is freely available to the research community. A 1000-yr climate simulation can be completed in around one-and-a-half months on a typical desktop computer, with greater throughput being possible on high-performance computing facilities. Mk3L produces realistic simulations of the larger-scale features of the modern climate, although with some biases on the regional scale. The model also produces reasonable representations of the leading modes of internal climate variability in both the tropics and extratropics. The control state of the model exhibits a high degree of stability, with only a weak cooling trend on millennial timescales. Ongoing development work aims to improve the model climatology and transform Mk3L into a comprehensive earth system model.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-05-2014
Abstract: Abstract. The Totten Glacier is rapidly losing mass. It has been suggested that this mass loss is driven by changes in oceanic forcing however, the details of the ice–ocean interaction are unknown. Here we present results from an ice shelf–ocean model of the region that includes the Totten, Dalton and Moscow University ice shelves, based on the Regional Oceanic Modeling System for the period 1992–2007. Simulated area-averaged basal melt rates (net basal mass loss) for the Totten and Dalton ice shelves are 9.1 m ice yr−1 (44.5 Gt ice yr−1) and 10.1 m ice yr−1 (46.6 Gt ice yr−1), respectively. The melting of the ice shelves varies strongly on seasonal and interannual timescales. Basal melting (mass loss) from the Totten ice shelf spans a range of 5.7 m ice yr−1 (28 Gt ice yr−1) on interannual timescales and 3.4 m ice yr−1 (17 Gt ice yr−1) on seasonal timescales. This study links basal melt of the Totten and Dalton ice shelves to warm water intrusions across the continental shelf break and atmosphere–ocean heat exchange. Totten ice shelf melting is high when the nearby Dalton polynya interannual strength is below average, and vice versa. Melting of the Dalton ice shelf is primarily controlled by the strength of warm water intrusions across the Dalton rise and into the ice shelf cavity. During periods of strong westward coastal current flow, Dalton melt water flows directly under the Totten ice shelf further reducing melting. This is the first such modelling study of this region to provide a valuable framework for directing future observational and modelling efforts.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 03-11-2015
Abstract: Abstract. Ice cores provide some of the best dated and most comprehensive proxy records, as they yield a vast and growing array of proxy indicators. Selecting a site for ice core drilling is nonetheless challenging, as the assessment of potential new sites needs to consider a variety of factors. Here, we demonstrate a systematic approach to site selection for a new East Antarctic high resolution ice core record. Specifically, seven criteria are considered: (1) 2000 year old ice at 300 m depth, (2) above 1000 m elevation, (3) a minimum accumulation rate of 250 mm yr−1 IE, (4) minimal surface re-working to preserve the deposited climate signal, (5) a site with minimal displacement or elevation change of ice at 300 m depth, (6) a strong teleconnection to mid-latitude climate and (7) an appropriately complementary relationship to the existing Law Dome record (a high resolution record in East Antarctica). Once assessment of these physical characteristics identified promising regions, logistical considerations (for site access and ice core retrieval) were briefly considered. We use Antarctic surface mass balance syntheses, along with ground-truthing of satellite data by airborne radar surveys to produce all-of-Antarctica maps of surface roughness, age at specified depth, elevation and displacement change and surface air temperature correlations to pinpoint promising locations. We also use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ERA 20th Century reanalysis (ERA-20C) to ensure a site complementary to the Law Dome record is selected. We find three promising sites in the Indian Ocean sector of East Antarctica in the coastal zone from Enderby Land to the Ingrid Christensen Coast (50–100° E). Although we focus on East Antarctica for a new ice core site, the methodology is more generally applicable and we include key parameters for all of Antarctica which may be useful for ice core site selection elsewhere and/or for other purposes.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE17447
Abstract: Climate variations cause ice sheets to retreat and advance, raising or lowering sea level by metres to decametres. The basic relationship is unambiguous, but the timing, magnitude and sources of sea-level change remain unclear in particular, the contribution of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is ill defined, restricting our appreciation of potential future change. Several lines of evidence suggest possible collapse of the Totten Glacier into interior basins during past warm periods, most notably the Pliocene epoch, causing several metres of sea-level rise. However, the structure and long-term evolution of the ice sheet in this region have been understood insufficiently to constrain past ice-sheet extents. Here we show that deep ice-sheet erosion-enough to expose basement rocks-has occurred in two regions: the head of the Totten Glacier, within 150 kilometres of today's grounding line and deep within the Sabrina Subglacial Basin, 350-550 kilometres from this grounding line. Our results, based on ICECAP aerogeophysical data, demarcate the marginal zones of two distinct quasi-stable EAIS configurations, corresponding to the 'modern-scale' ice sheet (with a marginal zone near the present ice-sheet margin) and the retreated ice sheet (with the marginal zone located far inland). The transitional region of 200-250 kilometres in width is less eroded, suggesting shorter-lived exposure to eroding conditions during repeated retreat-advance events, which are probably driven by ocean-forced instabilities. Representative ice-sheet models indicate that the global sea-level increase resulting from retreat in this sector can be up to 0.9 metres in the modern-scale configuration, and exceeds 2 metres in the retreated configuration.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 10-11-2017
Abstract: Abstract. Here we present Antarctic snow accumulation variability at the regional scale over the past 1000 years. A total of 79 ice core snow accumulation records were gathered and assigned to seven geographical regions, separating the high-accumulation coastal zones below 2000 m of elevation from the dry central Antarctic Plateau. The regional composites of annual snow accumulation were evaluated against modelled surface mass balance (SMB) from RACMO2.3p2 and precipitation from ERA-Interim reanalysis. With the exception of the Weddell Sea coast, the low-elevation composites capture the regional precipitation and SMB variability as defined by the models. The central Antarctic sites lack coherency and either do not represent regional precipitation or indicate the model inability to capture relevant precipitation processes in the cold, dry central plateau. Our results show that SMB for the total Antarctic Ice Sheet (including ice shelves) has increased at a rate of 7 ± 0.13 Gt decade−1 since 1800 AD, representing a net reduction in sea level of ∼ 0.02 mm decade−1 since 1800 and ∼ 0.04 mm decade−1 since 1900 AD. The largest contribution is from the Antarctic Peninsula (∼ 75 %) where the annual average SMB during the most recent decade (2001–2010) is 123 ± 44 Gt yr−1 higher than the annual average during the first decade of the 19th century. Only four ice core records cover the full 1000 years, and they suggest a decrease in snow accumulation during this period. However, our study emphasizes the importance of low-elevation coastal zones, which have been under-represented in previous investigations of temporal snow accumulation.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 13-09-2007
DOI: 10.1002/NME.2169
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 15-08-2023
DOI: 10.1017/JOG.2022.66
Abstract: Understanding the dynamic behaviour of ice shelves, specifically the controls on their ability to buttress the flow of ice into the ocean, is critical for predicting future ice-sheet contributions to sea level rise. Many large ice shelves, which are predominantly composed of meteoric ice, have a basal layer of marine ice (formed from accumulated platelets at the ice–ocean interface), comprising up to 40% of their thickness locally. Differences in temperature, chemistry and microstructure between marine and meteoric ice mean the rheological properties of the ice vary throughout the ice shelf. These differences are not explicitly accounted for in ice-sheet modelling applications, and may have an important influence on ice shelf dynamics. We tested the sensitivity of a model of an idealised ice shelf to variations in temperature distribution and flow enhancement, and found that incorporating a realistic thermal profile (where the marine ice layer is isothermal) had an order of magnitude greater effect on ice mass flux and thinning than incorporating the mechanical properties of the marine ice. The presence of marine ice at the ice shelf base has the potential to significantly increase deviatoric stresses at the surface and ice mass flux across the front of an ice shelf.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 05-05-2015
Abstract: Abstract. Accurate high-resolution records of snow accumulation rates in Antarctica are crucial for estimating ice sheet mass balance and subsequent sea level change. Snowfall rates at Law Dome, East Antarctica, have been linked with regional atmospheric circulation to the mid-latitudes as well as regional Antarctic snowfall. Here, we extend the length of the Law Dome accumulation record from 750 years to 2035 years, using recent annual layer dating that extends to 22 BCE. Accumulation rates were calculated as the ratio of measured to modelled layer thicknesses, multiplied by the long-term mean accumulation rate. The modelled layer thicknesses were based on a power-law vertical strain rate profile fitted to observed annual layer thickness. The periods 380–442, 727–783 and 1970–2009 CE have above-average snow accumulation rates, while 663–704, 933–975 and 1429–1468 CE were below average, and decadal-scale snow accumulation anomalies were found to be relatively common (74 events in the 2035-year record). The calculated snow accumulation rates show good correlation with atmospheric reanalysis estimates, and significant spatial correlation over a wide expanse of East Antarctica, demonstrating that the Law Dome record captures larger-scale variability across a large region of East Antarctica well beyond the immediate vicinity of the Law Dome summit. Spectral analysis reveals periodicities in the snow accumulation record which may be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) frequencies.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 08-03-2016
Abstract: Abstract. Ice cores provide some of the best-dated and most comprehensive proxy records, as they yield a vast and growing array of proxy indicators. Selecting a site for ice core drilling is nonetheless challenging, as the assessment of potential new sites needs to consider a variety of factors. Here, we demonstrate a systematic approach to site selection for a new East Antarctic high-resolution ice core record. Specifically, seven criteria are considered: (1) 2000-year-old ice at 300 m depth (2) above 1000 m elevation (3) a minimum accumulation rate of 250 mm years−1 IE (ice equivalent) (4) minimal surface reworking to preserve the deposited climate signal (5) a site with minimal displacement or elevation change in ice at 300 m depth (6) a strong teleconnection to midlatitude climate and (7) an appropriately complementary relationship to the existing Law Dome record (a high-resolution record in East Antarctica). Once assessment of these physical characteristics identified promising regions, logistical considerations (for site access and ice core retrieval) were briefly considered. We use Antarctic surface mass balance syntheses, along with ground-truthing of satellite data by airborne radar surveys to produce all-of-Antarctica maps of surface roughness, age at specified depth, elevation and displacement change, and surface air temperature correlations to pinpoint promising locations. We also use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ERA 20th Century reanalysis (ERA-20C) to ensure that a site complementary to the Law Dome record is selected. We find three promising sites in the Indian Ocean sector of East Antarctica in the coastal zone from Enderby Land to the Ingrid Christensen Coast (50–100° E). Although we focus on East Antarctica for a new ice core site, the methodology is more generally applicable, and we include key parameters for all of Antarctica which may be useful for ice core site selection elsewhere and/or for other purposes.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 03-11-2015
Start Date: 10-2005
End Date: 07-2007
Amount: $81,900.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 08-2021
End Date: 12-2027
Amount: $20,000,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 04-2018
End Date: 06-2021
Amount: $333,267.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded Activity