ORCID Profile
0000-0002-9618-5905
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Physical Oceanography | Glaciology | Climate Change Processes | Oceanography
Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Environments (excl. Social Impacts) | Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences | Expanding Knowledge in the Earth Sciences |
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2010
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-10-2021
DOI: 10.5194/TC-2021-265
Abstract: Abstract. The discovery of the deepest subglacial trough beneath the Denman Glacier, combined with high rates of basal melt at the grounding line, have caused significant concern over its vulnerability to retreat. Recent attention has therefore been focusing on understanding the governing dynamic controls, although knowledge of the wider regional context and timescales over which the future responses may occur remains poor. Here we consider the whole Shackleton system, comprising of the Shackleton ice shelf, Denman Glacier and adjacent Scott, Northcliffe, Roscoe and Apfel glaciers, about which almost nothing is known. We widen the context of previously observed dynamic changes in the Denman Glacier into the wider region of the Queen Mary and Knox coasts with a multi-decadal timeframe and an improved biannual temporal frequency of observations in the last seven years (2014–21). We integrate new satellite observations of ice structure, changes in ice front position and ice-flow velocities to investigate changes in the system. We furthermore use the BISICLES ice sheet model to assess the sensitivity and simulate the response times of the Queen Mary and Knox coasts to hypothetical disintegration of its floating ice areas, in response to coupled ocean and atmospheric forcing. Over the 60-year period of observation, the Queen Mary and Knox coasts do not appear to have changed significantly and higher frequency observations have not revealed any significant annual or sub-annual variations in ice flow. A previously observed increase in the ice flow speed of the Denman Glacier has not continued beyond 2008, and we cannot identify any related change in the surface structure of the system since then. We do, however, observe more significant change in the Scott Glacier, with an acceleration in ice flow associated with calving and progressing from the ice front along the floating tongue since early 2020. No changes in surface structure or ice flow speed are observed closer to the grounded ice. Our upper limit numerical simulations for a 400-year period are consistent with noticeable grounding line retreat in the Denman Glacier in the next two centuries if all floating ice were lost, before stabilising again in the third century from now. This equates to around 6 cm of sea level rise, a small contribution when compared to other areas of East Antarctica expected to change over the same time frame. It is clear that current knowledge is insufficient to explain the observed spatial and temporal changes in the dynamic behaviour of the grounded and floating sections in the Shackleton system. Given the potential vulnerability of the system to accelerating retreat better data recording the glaciological, oceanographic, and geological conditions in the Queen Mary and Knox coasts are required to improve the certainty of numerical model predictions. With access to these remote coastal regions a major challenge, coordinated internationally collaborative efforts are required to quantify how much the Queen Mary and Knox coastal region is likely contribute to sea level rise in the coming centuries.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 08-2015
DOI: 10.1657/AAAR0014-049
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018JF004821
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2018
DOI: 10.1002/2017JF004349
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2012
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-03-2013
DOI: 10.1111/DDI.12077
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 22-09-2017
Abstract: Abstract. We provide the first synoptic view of the drainage system of a Himalayan debris-covered glacier and its evolution through time, based on speleological exploration and satellite image analysis of Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal. The drainage system has several linked components: (1) a seasonal subglacial drainage system below the upper ablation zone (2) supraglacial channels, allowing efficient meltwater transport across parts of the upper ablation zone (3) sub-marginal channels, allowing long-distance transport of meltwater (4) perched ponds, which intermittently store meltwater prior to evacuation via the englacial drainage system (5) englacial cut-and-closure conduits, which may undergo repeated cycles of abandonment and reactivation and (6) a "base-level" lake system (Spillway Lake) dammed behind the terminal moraine. The distribution and relative importance of these elements has evolved through time, in response to sustained negative mass balance. The area occupied by perched ponds has expanded upglacier at the expense of supraglacial channels, and Spillway Lake has grown as more of the glacier surface ablates to base level. Subsurface processes play a governing role in creating, maintaining, and shutting down exposures of ice at the glacier surface, with a major impact on spatial patterns and rates of surface mass loss. Comparison of our results with observations on other glaciers indicate that englacial drainage systems play a key role in the response of debris-covered glaciers to sustained periods of negative mass balance.
Publisher: International Glaciological Society
Date: 2012
Abstract: Moraine dams can be inherently unstable, but effective assessment strategies remain poorly identified. We integrate electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) with electrical self-potential (SP) and lake-level measurements to investigate the structure of, and hydrological processes within, a moraine-dam complex adjacent to Miage glacier, Italy. This complex separates two meltwater lakes characterized by an efficient subterranean hydraulic connection. Our ERT data reveal a continuous free surface within the complex, whose morphology reflects the topography of the moraine complex akin to unconfined groundwater aquifers. SP data were corrected for spatial changes in the thickness of the upper unsaturated layer using principles of electrography. The residual streaming-potential map is consistent with Darcian flow of lake waters through the moraine complex, characterized by a negative-to-positive potential change from -30 mV to +70 mV. These electrical signatures are consistent with those generated by water seepage through earth dams in various non-glacial settings. Integrated electrical geophysical methods thus provided an inexpensive and unobtrusive evaluation of the hydrological properties of and processes within the moraine complex. Since spatio-temporal patterns of subsurface water flow critically affect the strengths of moraine sediments, such methods promise to be powerful in assessing the long-term stability of moraine-dammed glacial lakes.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 19-08-2010
DOI: 10.1029/2009JF001522
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 19-04-2016
DOI: 10.1017/JOG.2016.37
Abstract: The ablation areas of debris-covered glaciers typically consist of a complex mosaic of surface features with contrasting processes and rates of mass loss. This greatly complicates glacier response to climate change, and increases the uncertainty of predictive models. In this paper we present a series of high-resolution DEMs and repeat lake bathymetric surveys on Ngozumpa Glacier, Nepal, to study processes and patterns of mass loss on a Himalayan debris-covered glacier in unprecedented detail. Most mass loss occurs by melt below supraglacial debris, and melt and calving of ice cliffs (backwasting). Although ice cliffs cover only ~5% of the area of the lower tongue, they account for 40% of the ablation. The surface debris layer is subject to frequent re-distribution by slope processes, resulting in large spatial and temporal differences in debris-layer thickness, enhancing or inhibiting local ablation rates and encouraging continuous topographic inversion. A moraine-dammed lake on the lower glacier tongue (Spillway Lake) underwent a period of rapid expansion from 2001 to 2009, but later experienced a reduction of area and volume as a result of lake level lowering and sediment redistribution. Rapid lake growth will likely resume in the near future, and may eventually become up to 7 km long.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2012
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 16-01-2023
Abstract: Abstract. The discovery of Antarctica's deepest subglacial trough beneath the Denman Glacier, combined with high rates of basal melt at the grounding line, has caused significant concern over its vulnerability to retreat. Recent attention has therefore been focusing on understanding the controls driving Denman Glacier's dynamic evolution. Here we consider the Shackleton system, comprised of the Shackleton Ice Shelf, Denman Glacier, and the adjacent Scott, Northcliff, Roscoe and Apfel glaciers, about which almost nothing is known. We widen the context of previously observed dynamic changes in the Denman Glacier to the wider region of the Shackleton system, with a multi-decadal time frame and an improved biannual temporal frequency of observations in the last 7 years (2015–2022). We integrate new satellite observations of ice structure and airborne radar data with changes in ice front position and ice flow velocities to investigate changes in the system. Over the 60-year period of observation we find significant rift propagation on the Shackleton Ice Shelf and Scott Glacier and notable structural changes in the floating shear margins between the ice shelf and the outlet glaciers, as well as features indicative of ice with elevated salt concentration and brine infiltration in regions of the system. Over the period 2017–2022 we observe a significant increase in ice flow speed (up to 50 %) on the floating part of Scott Glacier, coincident with small-scale calving and rift propagation close to the ice front. We do not observe any seasonal variation or significant change in ice flow speed across the rest of the Shackleton system. Given the potential vulnerability of the system to accelerating retreat into the overdeepened, potentially sediment-filled bedrock trough, an improved understanding of the glaciological, oceanographic and geological conditions in the Shackleton system are required to improve the certainty of numerical model predictions, and we identify a number of priorities for future research. With access to these remote coastal regions a major challenge, coordinated internationally collaborative efforts are required to quantify how much the Shackleton region is likely to contribute to sea level rise in the coming centuries.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 13-11-2014
DOI: 10.1017/S095410201400039X
Abstract: Stange Ice Shelf is the most south-westerly ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, a region where positive trends in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures have been recently documented. In this paper, we use a range of remotely sensed datasets to evaluate the structural and dynamic responses of Stange Ice Shelf to these environmental changes. Ice shelf extent and surface structures were examined at regular intervals from optical and radar satellite imagery between 1973 and 2011. Surface speeds were estimated in 1989, 2004 and 2010 by tracking surface features in successive satellite images. Surface elevation change was estimated using radar altimetry data acquired between 1992 and 2008 by the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS) -1, -2 and Envisat. The mean number of surface melt days was estimated using the intensity of backscatter from Envisat’s Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar instrument between 2006 and 2012. These results show significant shear fracturing in the southern portion of the ice shelf linked to enhanced flow speed as a consequence of measured thinning. However, we conclude that, despite the observed changes, Stange Ice Shelf is currently stable.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-12-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-019-13539-X
Abstract: Suture zones are abundant on Antarctic ice shelves and widely observed to impede fracture propagation, greatly enhancing ice-shelf stability. Using seismic and radar observations on the Larsen C Ice Shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula, we confirm that such zones are highly heterogeneous, consisting of multiple meteoric and marine ice bodies of erse provenance fused together. Here we demonstrate that fracture detainment is predominantly controlled by enhanced seawater content in suture zones, rather than by enhanced temperature as previously thought. We show that interstitial seawater can reduce fracture-driving stress by orders of magnitude, promoting both viscous relaxation and the development of micro cracks, the incidence of which scales inversely with stress intensity. We show how simple analysis of viscous buckles in ice-penetrating radar data can quantify the seawater content of suture zones and their modification of the ice-shelf’s stress regime. By limiting fracture, enhancing stability and restraining continental ice discharge into the ocean, suture zones act as vital regulators of Antarctic mass balance.
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 30-11-2012
Abstract: Mass loss from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica account for a large fraction of global sea-level rise. Part of this loss is because of the effects of warmer air temperatures, and another because of the rising ocean temperatures to which they are being exposed. Joughin et al. (p. 1172 ) review how ocean-ice interactions are impacting ice sheets and discuss the possible ways that exposure of floating ice shelves and grounded ice margins are subject to the influences of warming ocean currents. Estimates of the mass balance of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have differed greatly—in some cases, not even agreeing about whether there is a net loss or a net gain—making it more difficult to project accurately future sea-level change. Shepherd et al. (p. 1183 ) combined data sets produced by satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry to construct a more robust ice-sheet mass balance for the period between 1992 and 2011. All major regions of the two ice sheets appear to be losing mass, except for East Antarctica. All told, mass loss from the polar ice sheets is contributing about 0.6 millimeters per year (roughly 20% of the total) to the current rate of global sea-level rise.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 09-09-2011
Abstract: Abstract. Hydrographic data acquired in Kangerdlugssuaq Fjord and adjacent seas in 1993 and 2004 are used together with reanalysis from the NEMO ocean modelling framework to elucidate water-mass change and ice-ocean-atmosphere interactions in East Greenland. The hydrographic data show that the fjord contains warm subtropical waters and that fjord waters in 2004 were considerably warmer than in 1993. The ocean reanalysis shows that the warm properties of fjord waters in 2004 are related to a major peak in oceanic shoreward heat flux into a cross-shelf trough on the outer continental shelf. The heat flux into this trough varies according to seasonal exchanges with the atmosphere as well as from deep seasonal intrusions of subtropical waters. Both mechanisms contribute to high (low) shoreward heat flux when winds from the northeast are weak (strong). The combined effect of surface heating and inflow of subtropical waters is seen in the hydrographic data, which were collected after periods when along-shore coastal winds from the north were strong (1993) and weak (2004). The latter data were furthermore acquired during the early phase of a prolonged retreat of Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. We show that coastal winds vary according to the pressure gradient defined by a semi-permanent atmospheric high-pressure system over Greenland and a persistent atmospheric low situated near Iceland. The magnitude of this pressure gradient is controlled by longitudinal variability in the position of the Icelandic Low.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 06-05-2014
Abstract: Abstract. Calving is an important mass-loss process for many glaciers worldwide, and has been assumed to respond to a variety of environmental influences. We present a grounded, flowline tidewater glacier model using a physically-based calving mechanism, applied to Helheim Glacier, eastern Greenland. By qualitatively examining both modelled size and frequency of calving events, and the subsequent dynamic response, the model is found to realistically reproduce key aspects of observed calving behaviour. Experiments explore four environmental variables which have been suggested to affect calving rates: water depth in crevasses, basal water pressure, undercutting of the calving face by submarine melt and backstress from ice mélange. Of the four variables, only crevasse water depth and basal water pressure were found to have a significant effect on terminus behaviour when applied at a realistic magnitude. These results are in contrast to previous modelling studies, which have suggested that ocean temperatures could strongly influence the calving front. The results raise the possibility that Greenland outlet glaciers could respond to the recent trend of increased surface melt observed in Greenland more strongly than previously thought, as surface ablation can strongly affect water depth in crevasses and water pressure at the glacier bed.
No related organisations have been discovered for Adrian Luckman.
Start Date: 08-2021
End Date: 12-2027
Amount: $20,000,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
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