ORCID Profile
0000-0002-8458-9056
Current Organisation
University of Vermont
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Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-05-2023
DOI: 10.1111/ACV.12877
Abstract: Identifying conservation actions to recover threatened species can be challenging due to many ecological uncertainties. For ex le, major threats to a species' conservation are commonly known or suspected, but the specific impacts on population or metapopulation dynamics can be uncertain. This is frequently the case with emerging infectious diseases, including chytridiomycosis, a global driver of hibian population declines caused by the fungal pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans . While these diseases are known to cause hibian declines and extirpations, the mechanisms of their landscape‐scale spread are still largely unknown. Such uncertainty can lead to inaction which may jeopardize timely recovery of a species. Decision analysis is a pragmatic approach to making transparent and defensible decisions while dealing with uncertainties. We investigated whether optimal actions aimed at recovering boreal toad ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) metapopulations in the southern Rocky Mountains are robust to the unknown dynamics of Bd spread using value of information and regret analyses. Value of information is a decision‐analytic tool for calculating the value of new information in terms of performance on management objectives, while regret measures the cost of acting under incorrect information. We further conducted a stochastic sensitivity analysis to identify the relative effects of metapopulation parameters on system dynamics. We found optimal actions were robust to the unknown dynamics of Bd spread. While boreal toad breeding occurrence is highly sensitive to Bd distribution, the optimal decision is not. Resolving the unknown dynamics of Bd spread would lead to a minimal gain of less than one breeding toad subpopulation at the end of 50 years, given the currently available management actions. Applying a decision‐analytic framework coupled with value of information and regret analyses can help frame how uncertainties affect decisions in a way that empowers decision makers.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 19-07-2023
DOI: 10.1111/CSP2.12988
Abstract: The problem of global hibian declines has prompted extensive research over the last three decades. Initially, the focus was on identifying and characterizing the extent of the problem, but more recently efforts have shifted to evidence‐based research designed to identify best solutions and to improve conservation outcomes. Despite extensive accumulation of knowledge on hibian declines, there remain knowledge gaps and disconnects between science and action that h er our ability to advance conservation efforts. Using input from participants at the ninth World Congress of Herpetology, a U.S. Geological Survey Powell Center symposium, hibian on‐line forums for discussion, the International Union for Conservation of Nature Assisted Reproductive Technologies and Gamete Biobanking group, and respondents to a survey, we developed a list of 25 priority research questions for hibian conservation at this stage of the Anthropocene. We identified hibian conservation research priorities while accounting for expected tradeoffs in geographic scope, costs, and the taxonomic breadth of research needs. We aimed to solicit views from in iduals rather than organizations while acknowledging inequities in participation. Emerging research priorities (i.e., those under‐represented in recently published hibian conservation literature) were identified, and included the effects of climate change, community‐level (rather than single species‐level) drivers of declines, methodological improvements for research and monitoring, genomics, and effects of land‐use change. Improved inclusion of under‐represented members of the hibian conservation community was also identified as a priority. These research needs represent critical knowledge gaps for hibian conservation although filling these gaps may not be necessary for many conservation actions.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-020-69486-X
Abstract: The salamander chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans [Bsal]) is causing massive mortality of salamanders in Europe. The potential for spread via international trade into North America and the high ersity of salamanders has catalyzed concern about Bsal in the U.S. Surveillance programs for invading pathogens must initially meet challenges that include low rates of occurrence on the landscape, low prevalence at a site, and imperfect detection of the diagnostic tests. We implemented a large-scale survey to determine if Bsal was present in North America designed to target taxa and localities where Bsal was determined highest risk to be present based on species susceptibility and geography. Our analysis included a Bayesian model to estimate the probability of occurrence of Bsal given our prior knowledge of the occurrence and prevalence of the pathogen. We failed to detect Bsal in any of 11,189 s les from 594 sites in 223 counties within 35 U.S. states and one site in Mexico. Our modeling indicates that Bsal is highly unlikely to occur within wild hibians in the U.S. and suggests that the best proactive response is to continue mitigation efforts against the introduction and establishment of the disease and to develop plans to reduce impacts should Bsal establish.
No related grants have been discovered for Brittany Mosher.