ORCID Profile
0000-0002-3541-4786
Current Organisation
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
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Publisher: Wiley
Date: 23-05-2023
DOI: 10.1111/AEC.13369
Abstract: Changes in vegetation cover due to increasing frequencies of extreme climate events and anthropogenic pressure are already underway so, predicting the impacts of the near‐future climate will be essential for developing mitigation strategies. We modelled the responses of Brazilian biomes to a future scenario (2070) of steady increases in atmospheric CO 2 levels, adding soil data to better represent the multidimensional space of the environmental suitability of each biome. We also assessed the effects of changes in environmental suitability on the Brazilian network of protected areas and projected those effects on 1 km resolution maps. The area predicted to be affected by future climate change in Brazil and the consequent loss of suitable habitat surface is 2.59 Mkm 2 – larger than the combined areas of Central America and Mexico – leading the current vegetation to a progressive replacement. We project major changes in the vegetation of the Amazon basin, with the replacement of rainforest by dryer vegetation in the southern and eastern regions of that basin, and the opening of a dry corridor in Pará State. We also project an expansion of 41% of the current caatinga cover in the Brazilian semiarid region, with large losses of suitable habitat surface of the current deciduous forest. Approximately, 37% of the coverage of protected areas in Brazil will be affected – with greater damage to indigenous lands. The speed of current environmental change is now unprecedented for the post‐glacial era, and will almost certainly lead to increased rates of extinction and the collapse of transition ecosystems. We propose the urgent creation of protected areas in regions designed without significant impacts, but contiguous to those that will be more seriously affected by climate change. Those areas will act as refugia preserving bio ersity, ecosystem services, and the cultural heritages of traditional populations.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-08-2015
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-07-2023
DOI: 10.1111/AEC.13394
Abstract: Changes in vegetation cover due to increasing frequencies of extreme climate events and anthropogenic pressure are already underway so, predicting the impacts of the near‐future climate will be essential for developing mitigation strategies. We modelled the responses of Brazilian biomes to a future scenario (2070) of steady increases in atmospheric CO levels, adding soil data to better represent the multidimensional space of the environmental suitability of each biome. We also assessed the effects of changes in environmental suitability on the Brazilian network of protected areas and projected those effects on 1 km resolution maps. The area predicted to be affected by future climate change in Brazil and the consequent loss of suitable habitat surface is 2.59 Mkm 2 – larger than the combined areas of Central America and Mexico – leading the current vegetation to a progressive replacement. We project major changes in the vegetation of the Amazon basin, with the replacement of rainforest by dryer vegetation in the southern and eastern regions of that basin, and the opening of a dry corridor in Pará State. We also project an expansion of 41% of the current caatinga cover in the Brazilian semiarid region, with large losses of suitable habitat surface of the current deciduous forest. Approximately, 37% of the coverage of protected areas in Brazil will be affected – with greater damage to indigenous lands. The speed of current environmental change is now unprecedented for the post‐glacial era, and will almost certainly lead to increased rates of extinction and the collapse of transition ecosystems. We propose the urgent creation of protected areas in regions designed without significant impacts, but contiguous to those that will be more seriously affected by climate change. Those areas will act as refugia preserving bio ersity, ecosystem services, and the cultural heritages of traditional populations.
Publisher: FapUNIFESP (SciELO)
Date: 06-2013
DOI: 10.1590/S0001-37652013000200011
Abstract: The Deciduous Complex that occurs in northern Minas Gerais State, Brazil, raises questions about the floristic affinities of these formations in relation to neighboring phytogeographical domains. Little is known about the identity of the seasonal forest formations that comprise this complex, or about its relationships to abiotic components, such as soils, topography and climate. This study aimed to recognize the patterns of floristic similarity of all studied fragments of dry forest of northern Minas Gerais with soil and climate attributes, based on the available database. Cluster analysis indicated the existence of two floristic groups that had clear associations with either the Koppen's BSh (semi-arid) or Aw (seasonal tropical) climates. Likewise, the sub isions of these groups showed clear associations with the dominant soil classes in the region. The Red-Yellow Latosol is the dominant soil classes in the BSh climatic domain, seconded by alluvial areas associated with Fluvic Neosols. The Aw domain comprised a much varied set of soils: Nitosols, Argisols, Cambisols and Litholic Neosols, most derived from the Bambuí limestone/slate formation. The ecotonal nature of northern Minas Gerais State provides a complex interaction between the flora of neighboring phytogeographical domains. This, allied to pedogeomorphological factors, allowed a better understanding of the effects of late Quaternary climate changes for the Deciduous Complex evolution. We conclude that the Latosols under present-day semi-arid climates (BSh) are relicts of former wetter climates, during which humid forest (semideciduous) expansion took place. Later, these semideciduous forests were subjected to a much drier climate, when selection for deciduousness led to the present-days Deciduous Complex scenario.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 10-2019
Abstract: This study aimed to test two hypotheses: (i) on the Brazilian semiarid territory, the climate has greater weight as a driver of vegetation than the soil and (ii) the arboreal Caatinga is a vegetation whose environmental attributes are similar to the Dry Forest, in terms of soil and climate attributes. We analyzed attributes of the superficial horizon of 156 standardized profiles distributed throughout the Brazilian semiarid region. Bioclimatic variables were obtained from the WorldClim platform and extracted to profiles location. The main vegetation types in the region were considered: Caatinga, arboreal Caatinga, Dry Forest and Cerrado. Variable selection was performed with hierarchical correlation dendrogram and recursive feature elimination algorithm. Linear Discriminant Analysis and Random Forest (RF) algorithm were used for modeling the edaphic and climate niche and predict the vegetation with the selected variables. Climate and soil, in idually, were able to separate the vegetation, but the climate was no better predictor than the soil. Therefore, we reject the first hypothesis. However, the better prediction was attained with the combined use of soil and climate attributes. The parsimonious RF model had good performance, with Kappa 0.61 ± 0.10 and 70.9% ± 7.7% accuracy. The combination of soil and climate predictors resulted in better separation of vegetation in the Brazilian semiarid region. Soil attributes are key variables in large-scale biogeographic modeling. The so-called arboreal Caatinga is distributed over a wide edaphic and climatic range, with strong similarity to the Dry Forest distribution, confirmed by the great overlap in the multivariate space, which confirms the second hypothesis. The results point towards an urgent review of the Atlantic Forest Law. The environments where the arboreal Caatinga and the Dry Forest occur are very similar, so that the former may represent a degraded phase of the Atlantic Forest, currently without the due legal protection.
Publisher: FapUNIFESP (SciELO)
Date: 04-2020
DOI: 10.1590/S0103-4014.2020.3498.012
Abstract: resumo A partir de meados do século XX, cresceu significativamente o interesse em se compreender a dinâmica das vegetações em respostas às mudanças climáticas do Último Máximo Glacial - UMG (18 mil anos atrás). Nesse contexto, uma paisagem pode ser fruto de mudanças recentes ambientais ou relíquias de condições ainda mais remotas. Isso pode determinar, inclusive, o grau de complexidade e ersificação da paisagem. Diversos pesquisadores têm proposto modelos para explicar a cobertura da vegetação brasileira sob as condições do UMG desde a década de 1960, porém, o recente avanço dos modelos climáticos globais tem proporcionado novas perspectivas para uma reconstrução mais fiel das condições pretéritas. Nesse sentido, aqui discutimos sobre teorias biogeográficas formuladas e modificadas ao longo dos últimos 60 anos de estudos sobre a reconstrução das vegetações do Brasil para o UMG.
No related grants have been discovered for Daniel Arruda.