ORCID Profile
0000-0002-3991-0082
Current Organisations
University of Technology Sydney
,
University of Queensland
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Publisher: Wiley
Date: 06-02-2013
DOI: 10.1111/ECOT.12010
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2010
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2014
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2021
DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3806162
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 18-12-2008
Publisher: World Scientific Pub Co Pte Ltd
Date: 09-2019
DOI: 10.1142/S0217590817450011
Abstract: This paper begins by showing that even after conditioning for factors that might justifiably lead to a country having relatively high leverage, China remains a debt outlier. In this sense, China can be regarded as over-leveraged and its debt levels may present potential risks to growth and financial stability. The corporate sector is central to China’s debt story, accounting for two-thirds of the total. Moreover, the corporate sector has been mostly responsible for China’s leverage cycles, including the leveraging up since 2008 and an earlier deleveraging phase starting in 2003. Two major but under-appreciated drivers of Chinese corporate leverage cycles are then identified. The most important is the share of internally funded corporate capital expenditure, which is a combined consequence of evolving corporate earnings and capital expenditure. The second is the rising importance of real estate and construction firms as holders of corporate debt. China’s corporate leverage landscape is also shown to be more complex than a story of zombie state-owned enterprises in industrial segments with excess capacity being ever-greened with loans from state banks. A balanced mix of policy responses will be needed to manage a warranted and orderly deleveraging cycle in the years ahead.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 02-04-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2020
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 16-11-2018
Publisher: Springer Nature Singapore
Date: 2023
Publisher: ANU Press
Date: 10-12-2021
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 29-08-2022
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2008
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 2001
DOI: 10.1002/JID.727
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 03-2000
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 03-2007
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 25-11-2019
DOI: 10.1108/IJOEM-04-2019-0290
Abstract: Consumption volatility is a key source of economic growth volatility thus, it is an important factor in designing macroeconomic policy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors that determine household consumption volatility, using urban household survey (UHS) data over the period 2002–2009 in 18 provinces in China. Both a traditional variance decomposition method and an advanced variance decomposition method are used. The traditional variance decomposition method suggests that heterogeneity of consumption goods is the key to analyze consumption volatility in China. Consumption of transportation makes the highest aggregate contribution and per-unit volatility in consumption volatility, whereas consumption of food makes the second highest aggregate contribution and the lowest per-unit volatility. Further investigation with the advanced variance decomposition method, which allows the authors to capture intertemporal dynamics and cross-household differences simultaneously, finds that the main factor determining the consumption volatility in China is intertemporal dynamics, rather than cross-household differences. Future research could fruitfully explore four issues. First, consumption upgrading has increased the volatility of China’s household consumption. How much will this affect economic growth in China under its “new normal” conditions, and how should the Chinese government respond? Second, differences between UHS data and aggregate data in the calculations of consumption risk sharing need to be investigated. Third, it is important to investigate the channels through which the Chinese government can enhance its ability to spread consumption risks and thus reduce consumer consumption volatility. Finally, further study could extend the current 18 provinces to a nation-wide s le and update the data beyond 2009 to estimate the impact of the global financial crisis. The results suggest that when policy makers design macroeconomic policies to smooth consumption volatility, they should consider heterogeneity in household consumption goods, regional disparity and intertemporal dynamics simultaneously. Well-managed volatility of Chinese household consumption can contribute to a stable economic growth in China and the world. Well-managed volatility of Chinese household consumption can contribute to a stable economic growth in China and the world. This paper fills this gap by using China’s UHS data to assess consumption volatility from the perspectives of heterogeneity in household consumption goods, cross-household differences and intertemporal dynamics. We make three contributions to the literature. The first contribution of this paper consists of demonstrating the contributions of heterogeneity in household consumption goods to consumption volatility. The second contribution consists of using the advanced variance decomposition method proposed by Crucini and Telmer (2012). This decomposition methodology allows the authors to examine whether household consumption volatility is due to cross-household differences or intertemporal dynamics. The third contribution is that this paper takes Chinese residents’ consumption fluctuations as the starting point to analyze the impact of consumption fluctuations on the future trend of China’s economy.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 13-06-2023
Publisher: Springer Singapore
Date: 2021
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 02-2007
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-2018
DOI: 10.1111/CWE.12246
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-2009
Publisher: World Scientific Pub Co Pte Lt
Date: 03-2005
DOI: 10.1142/S0219091505000294
Abstract: In 1949 Shanghai was the leading international financial center (IFC) in Asia. Recently the push of Shanghai to regain its long lost status of a regional IFC has begun to attract widespread interest. This paper first draws upon the IFC literature to highlight the factors that are considered to be important in determining the potential of a city to emerge as an IFC. Shanghai's progress is then measured against these criteria and is also placed in a comparative perspective by measuring against Hong Kong and Singapore.
Publisher: Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
Date: 19-11-2010
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 02-2013
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 15-03-2010
Publisher: ANU Press
Date: 22-11-2022
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-2008
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-2008
No related grants have been discovered for James Laurenceson.