ORCID Profile
0000-0001-5409-1436
Current Organisation
Utrecht University
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Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 15-08-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41893-022-00940-6
Abstract: Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-04-2022
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 03-12-2021
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-1085622/V1
Abstract: Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed by human perturbations. Recent research indicates that not accounting for the interactions between these processes may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Yet existing work accounts only for transgression of single boundaries and only a few studies take some of the boundary interactions into account. For future sustainability assessments, it is essential to understand boundary transgressions and their interactions more comprehensively. Here, we explore quantitatively how strongly seven variables, representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, interact with each other, using a structured expert knowledge elicitation. We identify Green water and Land system change as crucial interactive processes through their impacts on multiple relevant processes, while Biosphere integrity-land, freshwater and ocean components appear to be most affected by other Earth system processes, most notably Blue water and Biogeochemical flows. The elicitation also enabled us to map the complex network of mechanisms mediating interactions, to support integrated Earth system and planetary boundaries modelling and assessments. Finally, we created a prioritisation scheme for future research according to the interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our analysis improves our understanding of Earth system interactions, with clear implications for sustainable use of natural resources such as the biophysical limits for food production.
No related grants have been discovered for Arie Staal.