ORCID Profile
0000-0002-1471-2485
Current Organisation
University of Leeds
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Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 29-07-2015
DOI: 10.5194/ACPD-15-20449-2015
Abstract: Abstract. Combustion of fuels in the residential sector for cooking and heating, results in the emission of aerosol and aerosol precursors impacting air quality, human health and climate. Residential emissions are dominated by the combustion of solid fuels. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to simulate the uncertainties in the impact of residential fuel combustion on atmospheric aerosol. The model underestimates black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) mass concentrations observed over Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa, with better prediction when carbonaceous emissions from the residential sector are doubled. Observed seasonal variability of BC and OC concentrations are better simulated when residential emissions include a seasonal cycle. The largest contributions of residential emissions to annual surface mean particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations are simulated for East Asia, South Asia and Eastern Europe. We use a concentration response function to estimate the health impact due to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 from residential emissions. We estimate global annual excess adult ( 30 years of age) premature mortality of 308 000 (113 300–497 000, 5th to 95th percentile uncertainty range) for monthly varying residential emissions and 517 000 (192 000–827 000) when residential carbonaceous emissions are doubled. Mortality due to residential emissions is greatest in Asia, with China and India accounting for 50 % of simulated global excess mortality. Using an offline radiative transfer model we estimate that residential emissions exert a global annual mean direct radiative effect of between −66 and +21 mW m-2, with sensitivity to the residential emission flux and the assumed ratio of BC, OC and SO2 emissions. Residential emissions exert a global annual mean first aerosol indirect effect of between −52 and −16 mW m-2, which is sensitive to the assumed size distribution of carbonaceous emissions. Overall, our results demonstrate that reducing residential combustion emissions would have substantial benefits for human health through reductions in ambient PM2.5 concentrations.
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 02-05-2023
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PSTR.0000060
Abstract: Understanding how countries’ future development pathways could affect forests can help to avoid negative impacts and instead promote positive ones. Exploring this topic requires knowledge of which areas of the development agenda are likely to show the greatest progress, and how these expected changes relate to the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation that are currently affecting forests, or which may emerge as result of development-related changes. Based on this information, researchers, stakeholders and decisionmakers can engage in discussions to inform further research and interventions. We present an assessment framework that draws upon a range of data types to identify specific components of the development agenda that are likely to be of greatest relevance to forest conservation at the national level. We then assess the potential magnitude and likelihood of imminent changes in these areas over the short- to medium-term. We use this framework to assess 48 tropical countries, providing insights into the areas of sustainable development that are most likely to provide risks, opportunities or enabling conditions for forest conservation across much of the tropics. Our findings suggest that, across much of the tropics, ongoing risks to forests associated with agriculture, transport infrastructure and urban infrastructure could worsen, and that new risks from energy infrastructure could emerge. Opportunities relating to poverty reduction, tourism, and industry, among others, will require care to ensure that associated progress results in positive rather than negative forest impacts. Enabling conditions associated with, inter alia, improved education, inclusive decision-making, and effective governance, still have much room for improvement, and the anticipated likelihood of imminent progress in these areas varies between countries and regions. We discuss the implications of our findings for policymakers and development agencies, and consider potential future applications of our assessment protocol.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 07-09-2020
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 26-01-2016
Abstract: Abstract. Combustion of fuels in the residential sector for cooking and heating results in the emission of aerosol and aerosol precursors impacting air quality, human health, and climate. Residential emissions are dominated by the combustion of solid fuels. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to simulate the impact of residential fuel combustion on atmospheric aerosol for the year 2000. The model underestimates black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) mass concentrations observed over Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa, with better prediction when carbonaceous emissions from the residential sector are doubled. Observed seasonal variability of BC and OC concentrations are better simulated when residential emissions include a seasonal cycle. The largest contributions of residential emissions to annual surface mean particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations are simulated for East Asia, South Asia, and Eastern Europe. We use a concentration response function to estimate the human health impact due to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 from residential emissions. We estimate global annual excess adult ( 30 years of age) premature mortality (due to both cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer) to be 308 000 (113 300–497 000, 5th to 95th percentile uncertainty range) for monthly varying residential emissions and 517 000 (192 000–827 000) when residential carbonaceous emissions are doubled. Mortality due to residential emissions is greatest in Asia, with China and India accounting for 50 % of simulated global excess mortality. Using an offline radiative transfer model we estimate that residential emissions exert a global annual mean direct radiative effect between −66 and +21 mW m−2, with sensitivity to the residential emission flux and the assumed ratio of BC, OC, and SO2 emissions. Residential emissions exert a global annual mean first aerosol indirect effect of between −52 and −16 mW m−2, which is sensitive to the assumed size distribution of carbonaceous emissions. Overall, our results demonstrate that reducing residential combustion emissions would have substantial benefits for human health through reductions in ambient PM2.5 concentrations.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2023
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 04-02-2015
DOI: 10.1002/WCC.335
Abstract: To enhance understanding of the process of climate change adaptation and to facilitate the planning and implementation of socially‐just adaptation strategies, deeper consideration of the factors that impede adaptation is required. In response, scholars have increasingly identified barriers to adaptation in the literature. But, despite this progress, knowledge of barriers that h er adaptation in developing countries remains limited, especially in relation to underlying causes of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity. To further improve understanding of barriers to adaptation and identify gaps in the state‐of‐the‐art knowledge, we undertook a synthesis of empirical literature from sub‐Saharan Africa focusing on vulnerable, natural resource‐dependent communities and livelihoods. Our review illustrates that: (1) local‐level studies that reveal barriers to adaptation are erse, although there is a propensity for studies on small‐holder farmers (2) many of the studies identify several barriers to adaptation, but appreciation of their interactions and compounded impacts remains scarce and (3) most of the barriers uncovered relate broadly to biophysical, knowledge, and financial constraints on agricultural production and rural development. More hidden and under‐acknowledged political, social, and psychological barriers are rarely mentioned, unless captured in studies that specifically set out to investigate these. We finish our review by highlighting gaps in understanding and by suggesting future research directions, focusing on issues of social justice. We argue that research on barriers needs to start asking why these barriers emerge, how they work together to shape adaptation processes, who they affect most, and what is needed to overcome them. WIREs Clim Change 2015, 6:321–344. doi: 10.1002/wcc.335 This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change Learning from Cases and Analogies
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 22-07-2022
DOI: 10.3389/FSUFS.2022.868189
Abstract: Climate change will put millions more people in Africa at risk of food and nutrition insecurity by 2050. Integrated assessments of food systems tend to be limited by either heavy reliance on models or a lack of information on food and nutrition security. Accordingly, we developed a novel integrated assessment framework that combines models with in-country knowledge and expert academic judgement to explore climate-smart and nutrition-secure food system futures: the integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED). Here, we describe iFEED and present its application in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. The iFEED process begins with a participatory scenario workshop. In-country stakeholders identify two key drivers of food system change, and from these, four possible scenarios are defined. These scenarios provide the underlying narratives of change to the food system. Integrated modeling of climate change, food production and greenhouse gas emissions is then used to explore nutrition security and climate-smart agriculture outcomes for each scenario. Model results are summarized using calibrated statements—quantitative statements of model outcomes and our confidence in them. These include statements about the way in which different trade futures interact with climate change and domestic production in determining nutrition security at the national level. To understand what the model results mean for food systems, the calibrated statements are expanded upon using implication statements. The implications rely on input from a wide range of academic experts—including agro-ecologists and social scientists. A series of workshops are used to incorporate in-country expertise, identifying any gaps in knowledge and summarizing information for country-level recommendations. iFEED stakeholder ch ions help throughout by providing in-country expertise and disseminating knowledge to policy makers. iFEED has numerous novel aspects that can be used and developed in future work. It provides information to support evidence-based decisions for a climate-smart and nutrition-secure future. In particular, iFEED: (i) employs novel and inclusive reporting of model results and associated in-country food system activities, with comprehensive reporting of uncertainty (ii) includes climate change mitigation alongside adaptation measures and (iii) quantifies future population-level nutrition security, as opposed to simply assessing future production and food security implications.
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 14-11-2022
Abstract: The science guiding design and evaluation of restoration interventions in tropical landscapes is dominated by ecological processes and outcomes and lacks indicators and methods that integrate human wellbeing into the restoration process. We apply a new systems approach framework for tree restoration in forest-agricultural landscapes to show how this shortcoming can be addressed. Demonstrating ‘proof of concept’, we tested statistical models underlying the framework pathways with data collected from a case study in Tanzania. Local community perceptions of nature's values were not affected by levels of self-reported wildlife-induced crop damage. But mapped predictions from the systems approach under a tree restoration scenario suggested differential outcomes for bio ersity indicators and altered spatial patterns of crop damage risk, expected to jeopardize human wellbeing. The predictions map anticipated trade-offs in costs and benefits of restoration scenarios, which we have started to explore with stakeholders to identify restoration opportunities that consider local knowledge, value systems and human wellbeing. We suggest that the framework be applied to other landscapes to identify commonalities and differences in forest landscape restoration outcomes under varying governance and land use systems. This should form a foundation for evidence-based implementation of the global drive for forest landscape restoration, at local scales. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration’.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: Tanzania, United Republic of
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Susannah Sallu.