ORCID Profile
0000-0001-7516-1835
Current Organisations
Hokkaido University
,
National Institute for Environmental Studies
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Marine and Estuarine Ecology (incl. Marine Ichthyology) | Ecological Impacts of Climate Change | Other Biological Sciences | Global Change Biology
Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change | Climate Change Adaptation Measures | Marine Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity |
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 04-05-2016
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-2022
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-10-2019
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-02-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE12976
Abstract: The reorganization of patterns of species ersity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-05-2020
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 31-08-2015
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2769
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2018
DOI: 10.1016/J.TREE.2018.03.009
Abstract: Climate change is shifting the ranges of species. Simple predictive metrics of range shifts such as climate velocity, that do not require extensive knowledge or data on in idual species, could help to guide conservation. We review research on climate velocity, describing the theory underpinning the concept and its assumptions. We highlight how climate velocity has already been applied in conservation-related research, including climate residence time, climate refugia, endemism, historic and projected range shifts, exposure to climate change, and climate connectivity. Finally, we discuss ways to enhance the use of climate velocity in conservation through tailoring it to be more biologically meaningful, informing design of protected areas, conserving ocean bio ersity in 3D, and informing conservation actions.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 14-07-2022
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.16328
Abstract: The vulnerability of marine bio ersity to accelerated rates of climatic change is poorly understood. By developing a new method for identifying extreme oceanic warming events during Earth's most recent deglaciation, and comparing these to 21st century projections, we show that future rates of ocean warming will disproportionately affect the most speciose marine communities, potentially threatening bio ersity in more than 70% of current-day global hotspots of marine species richness. The persistence of these richest areas of marine bio ersity will require many species to move well beyond the biogeographic realm where they are endemic, at rates of redistribution not previously seen. Our approach for quantifying exposure of bio ersity to past and future rates of oceanic warming provides new context and scalable information for deriving and strengthening conservation actions to safeguard marine bio ersity under climate change.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-03-2017
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.13665
Abstract: Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-11-2019
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-12-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S42003-022-04273-0
Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is causing a rapid redistribution of life on Earth, particularly in the ocean, with profound implications for humans. Yet warming-driven range shifts are known to be influenced by a variety of factors whose combined effects are still little understood. Here, we use scientist-verified out-of-range observations from a national citizen-science initiative to assess the combined effect of long-term warming, climate extremes (i.e., heatwaves and cold spells), ocean currents, and species traits on early stages of marine range extensions in two warming ‘hotspot’ regions of southern Australia. We find effects of warming to be contingent upon complex interactions with the strength of ocean currents and their mutual directional agreement, as well as species traits. Our study represents the most comprehensive account to date of factors driving early stages of marine species redistributions, providing important evidence for the assessment of the vulnerability of marine species distributions to climate change.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 27-04-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-022-04674-5
Abstract: As the human population and demand for food grow
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-05-2017
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-017-01309-Y
Abstract: Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: Spain
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Start Date: 06-2022
End Date: 06-2025
Amount: $465,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded Activity