ORCID Profile
0000-0001-7044-5257
Current Organisations
World Health Organization
,
Harvard Medical School
,
Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
,
Brigham and Women's Hospital
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Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 10-01-2018
DOI: 10.1101/246116
Abstract: Dengue is a major health burden, but it can be challenging to examine transmission dynamics and evaluate control measures because outbreaks depend on multiple factors, including human population structure, prior immunity and climate. We combined population-representative paired sera collected before and after the major 2013/14 dengue-3 outbreak in Fiji with surveillance data to determine how such factors influence dengue virus transmission and control in island settings. Our results suggested the 10-19 year-old age group had the highest risk of acquiring infection, but we did not find strong evidence that other demographic or environmental risk factors were linked to seroconversion. Mathematical modelling showed that temperature-driven variation in transmission and herd immunity could not fully explain observed dynamics. However, there was evidence of an additional reduction in transmission coinciding with a vector clean-up c aign, which may have contributed to the decline in cases and prevented transmission continuing into the following season.
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 06-12-2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 15-03-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-021-21788-Y
Abstract: Zika virus (ZIKV) has caused large, brief outbreaks in isolated populations, however ZIKV can also persist at low levels over multiple years. The reasons for these erse transmission dynamics remain poorly understood. In Fiji, which has experienced multiple large single-season dengue epidemics, there was evidence of multi-year transmission of ZIKV between 2013 and 2017. To identify factors that could explain these differences in dynamics between closely related mosquito-borne flaviviruses, we jointly fit a transmission dynamic model to surveillance, serological and molecular data. We estimate that the observed dynamics of ZIKV were the result of two key factors: strong seasonal effects, which created an ecologically optimal time of year for outbreaks and introduction of ZIKV after this optimal time, which allowed ZIKV transmission to persist over multiple seasons. The ability to jointly fit to multiple data sources could help identify a similar range of possible outbreak dynamics in other settings.
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 11-10-2018
Publisher: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Date: 04-2019
Publisher: eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
Date: 14-08-2018
DOI: 10.7554/ELIFE.34848
Abstract: Dengue is a major health burden, but it can be challenging to examine transmission and evaluate control measures because outbreaks depend on multiple factors, including human population structure, prior immunity and climate. We combined population-representative paired sera collected before and after the 2013/14 dengue-3 outbreak in Fiji with surveillance data to determine how such factors influence transmission and control in island settings. Our results suggested the 10–19 year-old age group had the highest risk of infection, but we did not find strong evidence that other demographic or environmental risk factors were linked to seroconversion. A mathematical model jointly fitted to surveillance and serological data suggested that herd immunity and seasonally varying transmission could not explain observed dynamics. However, the model showed evidence of an additional reduction in transmission coinciding with a vector clean-up c aign, which may have contributed to the decline in cases in the later stages of the outbreak.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2017
Publisher: WHO Press
Date: 18-01-2019
Publisher: World Health Organization, Western Pacific Regional Office
Date: 25-09-2017
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-05-2016
DOI: 10.1111/TMI.12711
Abstract: The Pacific Syndromic Surveillance System (PSSS), launched in 2010, provides a simple mechanism by which 121 sentinel surveillance sites in 21 Pacific island countries and areas perform routine indicator- and event-based surveillance for the early detection of infectious disease outbreaks. This evaluation aims to assess whether the PSSS is meeting its objectives, what progress has been made since a formative evaluation of the system was conducted in 2011, and provides recommendations to enhance the PSSS's performance in the future. Twenty-one informant interviews were conducted with national operators of the system and regional public health agencies that use information generated by it. Historic PSSS data were analysed to assess timeliness and completeness of reporting. The system is simple, acceptable and useful for public health decision-makers. The PSSS has greatly enhanced Pacific island countries' ability to undertake early warning surveillance and has contributed to efforts to meet national surveillance-related International Health Regulation (2005) capacity development obligations. Despite this, issues with timeliness and completeness of reporting, data quality and system stability persist. A balance between maintaining the system's simplicity and technical advances will need to be found to ensure its long-term sustainability, given the low-resource context for which it is designed.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2020
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 20-07-2017
Publisher: American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Date: 03-10-2018
Publisher: World Health Organization, Western Pacific Regional Office
Date: 02-07-2013
Publisher: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Date: 02-2018
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 05-2020
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 28-01-2016
Publisher: World Health Organization, Western Pacific Regional Office
Date: 21-06-2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 31-03-2014
Publisher: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Date: 08-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2018
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 05-10-2023
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 26-10-2022
DOI: 10.1101/2022.10.24.22281399
Abstract: The global SARS-CoV-2 immune landscape and population protection against emerging variants is largely unknown. We assessed SARS-CoV-2 antibody changes in the Dominican Republic and implications for immunological protection against variants of concern. Between March 2021 and August 2022, 2,300 patients with undifferentiated febrile illnesses were prospectively enrolled. Sera was tested for total anti-spike antibodies and simultaneously collected nasopharyngeal s les for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection with RT-PCR. Geometric mean anti-spike titers increased from 6.6 BAU/ml (95% CI 5.1–8.7) to 1,332 BAU/ml (1055–1,682). Multivariable binomial odds ratios for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection were 0.55 (0.40–0.74), 0.38 (0.27–0.55), and 0.27 (0.18–0.40) for the second, third, and fourth versus the first anti-S quartile, with similar findings by viral strain. Integrated serological and virological screening can leverage existing acute fever surveillance platforms to monitor population-level immunological markers and concurrently characterize implications for emergent variant transmission in near real-time.
Location: United States of America
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Eric Nilles.