ORCID Profile
0000-0003-1467-1414
Current Organisation
GNS Science Ltd
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Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 12-11-2013
DOI: 10.1093/GJI/GGT404
Publisher: Seismological Society of America (SSA)
Date: 13-06-2018
DOI: 10.1785/0220180033
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 22-06-2017
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 22-11-2018
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 19-09-2022
DOI: 10.3390/GEOSCIENCES12090349
Abstract: Nearly 20 years ago, the observation that major earthquakes are generally preceded by an increase in the seismicity rate on a timescale from months to decades was embedded in the “Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale” (EEPAS) model. EEPAS has since been successfully applied to regional real-world and synthetic earthquake catalogues to forecast future earthquake occurrence rates with time horizons up to a few decades. When combined with aftershock models, its forecasting performance is improved for short time horizons. As a result, EEPAS has been included as the medium-term component in public earthquake forecasts in New Zealand. EEPAS has been modified to advance its forecasting performance despite data limitations. One modification is to compensate for missing precursory earthquakes. Precursory earthquakes can be missing because of the time-lag between the end of a catalogue and the time at which a forecast applies or the limited lead time from the start of the catalogue to a target earthquake. An observed space-time trade-off in precursory seismicity, which affects the EEPAS scaling parameters for area and time, also can be used to improve forecasting performance. Systematic analysis of EEPAS performance on synthetic catalogues suggests that regional variations in EEPAS parameters can be explained by regional variations in the long-term earthquake rate. Integration of all these developments is needed to meet the challenge of producing a global EEPAS model.
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 08-2007
Publisher: Seismological Society of America (SSA)
Date: 27-10-2023
DOI: 10.1785/0120230080
Location: Switzerland
No related grants have been discovered for Annemarie Christophersen.