ORCID Profile
0000-0001-9032-0099
Current Organisations
Auckland District Health Board
,
The University of Auckland
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Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 14-12-2016
Abstract: Lineages tend to retain ecological characteristics of their ancestors through time. However, for some traits, selection during evolutionary history may have also played a role in determining trait values. To address the relative importance of these processes requires large-scale quantification of traits and evolutionary relationships among species. The Amazonian tree flora comprises a high ersity of angiosperm lineages and species with widely differing life-history characteristics, providing an excellent system to investigate the combined influences of evolutionary heritage and selection in determining trait variation. We used trait data related to the major axes of life-history variation among tropical trees (e.g. growth and mortality rates) from 577 inventory plots in closed-canopy forest, mapped onto a phylogenetic hypothesis spanning more than 300 genera including all major angiosperm clades to test for evolutionary constraints on traits. We found significant phylogenetic signal (PS) for all traits, consistent with evolutionarily related genera having more similar characteristics than expected by chance. Although there is also evidence for repeated evolution of pioneer and shade tolerant life-history strategies within independent lineages, the existence of significant PS allows clearer predictions of the links between evolutionary ersity, ecosystem function and the response of tropical forests to global change.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-07-2020
DOI: 10.1111/GEB.13123
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 07-2022
Abstract: Forests that regrow naturally on abandoned fields are important for restoring bio ersity and ecosystem services, but can they also preserve the distinct regional tree floras? Using the floristic composition of 1215 early successional forests (≤20 years) in 75 human-modified landscapes across the Neotropic realm, we identified 14 distinct floristic groups, with a between-group dissimilarity of 0.97. Floristic groups were associated with location, bioregions, soil pH, temperature seasonality, and water availability. Hence, there is large continental-scale variation in the species composition of early successional forests, which is mainly associated with biogeographic and environmental factors but not with human disturbance indicators. This floristic distinctiveness is partially driven by regionally restricted species belonging to widespread genera. Early secondary forests contribute therefore to restoring and conserving the distinctiveness of bioregions across the Neotropical realm, and forest restoration initiatives should use local species to assure that these distinct floras are maintained.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-05-2020
DOI: 10.1002/ECY.3052
Abstract: Competition among trees is an important driver of community structure and dynamics in tropical forests. Neighboring trees may impact an in idual tree’s growth rate and probability of mortality, but large‐scale geographic and environmental variation in these competitive effects has yet to be evaluated across the tropical forest biome. We quantified effects of competition on tree‐level basal area growth and mortality for trees ≥10‐cm diameter across 151 ~1‐ha plots in mature tropical forests in Amazonia and tropical Africa by developing nonlinear models that accounted for wood density, tree size, and neighborhood crowding. Using these models, we assessed how water availability (i.e., climatic water deficit) and soil fertility influenced the predicted plot‐level strength of competition (i.e., the extent to which growth is reduced, or mortality is increased, by competition across all in idual trees). On both continents, tree basal area growth decreased with wood density and increased with tree size. Growth decreased with neighborhood crowding, which suggests that competition is important. Tree mortality decreased with wood density and generally increased with tree size, but was apparently unaffected by neighborhood crowding. Across plots, variation in the plot‐level strength of competition was most strongly related to plot basal area (i.e., the sum of the basal area of all trees in a plot), with greater reductions in growth occurring in forests with high basal area, but in Amazonia, the strength of competition also varied with plot‐level wood density. In Amazonia, the strength of competition increased with water availability because of the greater basal area of wetter forests, but was only weakly related to soil fertility. In Africa, competition was weakly related to soil fertility and invariant across the shorter water availability gradient. Overall, our results suggest that competition influences the structure and dynamics of tropical forests primarily through effects on in idual tree growth rather than mortality and that the strength of competition largely depends on environment‐mediated variation in basal area.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-03-2014
DOI: 10.1111/ELE.12252
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-11-2018
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.14413
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 17-12-2021
DOI: 10.1111/BTP.13044
Abstract: The “hierarchy of factors” hypothesis states that decomposition rates are controlled primarily by climatic, followed by biological and soil variables. Tropical montane forests (TMF) are globally important ecosystems, yet there have been limited efforts to provide a biome‐scale characterization of litter decomposition. We designed a common litter decomposition experiment replicated in 23 tropical montane sites across the Americas, Asia, and Africa and combined these results with a previous study of 23 sites in tropical lowland forests (TLF). Specifically, we investigated (1) spatial heterogeneity in decomposition, (2) the relative importance of biological factors that affect leaf and wood decomposition in TMF, and (3) the role of climate in determining leaf litter decomposition rates within and across the TMF and TLF biomes. Litterbags of two mesh sizes containing Laurus nobilis leaves or birchwood popsicle sticks were spatially dispersed and incubated in TMF sites, for 3 and 7 months on the soil surface and at 10–15 cm depth. The within‐site replication demonstrated spatial variability in mass loss. Within TMF, litter type was the predominant biological factor influencing decomposition (leaves wood), with mesh and burial effects playing a minor role. When comparing across TMF and TLF, climate was the predominant control over decomposition, but the Yasso07 global model (based on mean annual temperature and precipitation) only modestly predicted decomposition rate. Differences in controlling factors between biomes suggest that TMF, with their high rates of carbon storage, must be explicitly considered when developing theory and models to elucidate carbon cycling rates in the tropics. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 15-01-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE12914
Abstract: Forests are major components of the global carbon cycle, providing substantial feedback to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Our ability to understand and predict changes in the forest carbon cycle--particularly net primary productivity and carbon storage--increasingly relies on models that represent biological processes across several scales of biological organization, from tree leaves to forest stands. Yet, despite advances in our understanding of productivity at the scales of leaves and stands, no consensus exists about the nature of productivity at the scale of the in idual tree, in part because we lack a broad empirical assessment of whether rates of absolute tree mass growth (and thus carbon accumulation) decrease, remain constant, or increase as trees increase in size and age. Here we present a global analysis of 403 tropical and temperate tree species, showing that for most species mass growth rate increases continuously with tree size. Thus, large, old trees do not act simply as senescent carbon reservoirs but actively fix large amounts of carbon compared to smaller trees at the extreme, a single big tree can add the same amount of carbon to the forest within a year as is contained in an entire mid-sized tree. The apparent paradoxes of in idual tree growth increasing with tree size despite declining leaf-level and stand-level productivity can be explained, respectively, by increases in a tree's total leaf area that outpace declines in productivity per unit of leaf area and, among other factors, age-related reductions in population density. Our results resolve conflicting assumptions about the nature of tree growth, inform efforts to undertand and model forest carbon dynamics, and have additional implications for theories of resource allocation and plant senescence.
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 22-05-2020
Abstract: A key uncertainty in climate change models is the thermal sensitivity of tropical forests and how this value might influence carbon fluxes. Sullivan et al. measured carbon stocks and fluxes in permanent forest plots distributed globally. This synthesis of plot networks across climatic and biogeographic gradients shows that forest thermal sensitivity is dominated by high daytime temperatures. This extreme condition depresses growth rates and shortens the time that carbon resides in the ecosystem by killing trees under hot, dry conditions. The effect of temperature is worse above 32°C, and a greater magnitude of climate change thus risks greater loss of tropical forest carbon stocks. Nevertheless, forest carbon stocks are likely to remain higher under moderate climate change if they are protected from direct impacts such as clearance, logging, or fires. Science , this issue p. 869
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 23-10-2014
DOI: 10.1111/GEB.12248
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-2015
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE14283
Abstract: Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink erges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 10-12-2021
Abstract: Although deforestation is r ant across the tropics, forest has a strong capacity to regrow on abandoned lands. These “secondary” forests may increasingly play important roles in bio ersity conservation, climate change mitigation, and landscape restoration. Poorter et al . analyzed the patterns of recovery in forest attributes (related to soil, plant functioning, structure, and ersity) in 77 secondary forest sites in the Americas and West Africa. They found that different attributes recovered at different rates, with soil recovering in less than a decade and species ersity and biomass recovering in little more than a century. The authors discuss how these findings can be applied in efforts to promote forest restoration. —AMS
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 29-04-2004
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-019-1128-0
Abstract: The identity of the dominant root-associated microbial symbionts in a forest determines the ability of trees to access limiting nutrients from atmospheric or soil pools
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 03-2019
Abstract: Tropical secondary forests recover quickly (decades) in tree species richness but slowly (centuries) in species composition.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-11-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41559-019-1007-Y
Abstract: Higher levels of taxonomic and evolutionary ersity are expected to maximize ecosystem function, yet their relative importance in driving variation in ecosystem function at large scales in erse forests is unknown. Using 90 inventory plots across intact, lowland, terra firme, Amazonian forests and a new phylogeny including 526 angiosperm genera, we investigated the association between taxonomic and evolutionary metrics of ersity and two key measures of ecosystem function: aboveground wood productivity and biomass storage. While taxonomic and phylogenetic ersity were not important predictors of variation in biomass, both emerged as independent predictors of wood productivity. Amazon forests that contain greater evolutionary ersity and a higher proportion of rare species have higher productivity. While climatic and edaphic variables are together the strongest predictors of productivity, our results show that the evolutionary ersity of tree species in erse forest stands also influences productivity. As our models accounted for wood density and tree size, they also suggest that additional, unstudied, evolutionarily correlated traits have significant effects on ecosystem function in tropical forests. Overall, our pan-Amazonian analysis shows that greater phylogenetic ersity translates into higher levels of ecosystem function: tropical forest communities with more distantly related taxa have greater wood productivity.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-06-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-019-1342-9
Abstract: In this Letter, a middle initial and additional affiliation have been added for author G. J. Nabuurs two statements have been added to the Supplementary Acknowledgements and a citation to the French National Institute has been added to the Methods see accompanying Author Correction for further details.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 20-09-2022
DOI: 10.1111/ANAE.15867
Abstract: Are the results of randomised trials reliable and are p values and confidence intervals the best way of quantifying efficacy? Low power is common in medical research, which reduces the probability of obtaining a 'significant result' and declaring the intervention had an effect. Metrics derived from Bayesian methods may provide an insight into trial data unavailable from p values and confidence intervals. We did a structured review of multicentre trials in anaesthesia that were published in the New England Journal of Medicine, The Lancet, Journal of the American Medical Association, British Journal of Anaesthesia and Anesthesiology between February 2011 and November 2021. We documented whether trials declared a non-zero effect by an intervention on the primary outcome. We documented the expected and observed effect sizes. We calculated a Bayes factor from the published trial data indicating the probability of the data under the null hypothesis of zero effect relative to the alternative hypothesis of a non-zero effect. We used the Bayes factor to calculate the post-test probability of zero effect for the intervention (having assumed 50% belief in zero effect before the trial). We contacted all authors to estimate the costs of running the trials. The median (IQR [range]) hypothesised and observed absolute effect sizes were 7% (3-13% [0-25%]) vs. 2% (1-7% [0-24%]), respectively. Non-zero effects were declared for 12/56 outcomes (21%). The Bayes factor favouring a zero effect relative to a non-zero effect for these 12 trials was 0.000001-1.9, with post-test zero effect probabilities for the intervention of 0.0001-65%. The other 44 trials did not declare non-zero effects, with Bayes factors favouring zero effect of 1-688, and post-test probabilities of zero effect of 53-99%. The median (IQR [range]) study costs reported by 20 corresponding authors in US$ were $1,425,669 ($514,766-$2,526,807 [$120,758-$24,763,921]). We think that inadequate power and mortality as an outcome are why few trials declared non-zero effects. Bayes factors and post-test probabilities provide a useful insight into trial results, particularly when p values approximate the significance threshold.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-12-2022
DOI: 10.1111/ANAE.15935
Location: Colombia
Location: Colombia
No related grants have been discovered for Esteban Alvarez-Davila.