ORCID Profile
0000-0002-0400-5613
Current Organisation
The University of Sydney Brain and Mind Centre
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Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2023
Publisher: Zenodo
Date: 2008
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 08-2014
DOI: 10.1260/0144-5987.32.4.673
Abstract: Despite considerable efforts to give ersity to world's energy supply portfolio, oil still has a significant share among energy carriers and plays a major role in economy of countries. Regarding dependency of Iran's economy on revenues of crude oil exports, investigations on the dynamics of crude oil production rate (considering the factors such as technological, economic, political, etc.) are of high importance for the country. In this paper, factors influencing the Iran's crude oil production peak are investigated by system dynamics approach. Through results obtained by the model it is shown how different factors, within causal relationships, affect the occurrence time and the volume of produced oil at its peak. The model is also used to evaluate different scenarios on oil price, geological uncertainty, production depletion, and foreign investment level in the country. Moreover, it can be used to simulate behavior of main variables in the industry under different policy options. The model predicts that the peak will occur sometime between 2035 and 2042 with various production volumes in different scenarios. The developed model can help practitioners, especially policy makers, in the oil sector to gain a systemic and comprehensive insight of influencing factors and the relationships which cause occurrence of Iran's crude oil peak. Investments in all exploration and production sectors, which depend on the oil prices, might be the most crucial variable on the future of the industry and its success to help the developing country achieve its goals.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2012
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2019
Publisher: Inderscience Publishers
Date: 2011
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2022
Publisher: Inderscience Publishers
Date: 2010
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 08-03-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2021
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 17-02-2016
Abstract: The recent decade witnessed both steep ascending and descending trends in global oil prices. As a main energy resource, oil has been playing a substantial role in contemporary world’s economics. Hence, analyzing and understanding short- to long-term dynamics of oil prices is still one of challenging issues in the global economic- and energy-related debate topics. Although the literature is full of significant analytical studies that focus on particular issues related to the real oil prices, less can be found that integrates various factors affecting its dynamics. An integrated model, in which focal variables are included in main building blocks are illustrated with their interrelationships, helps policy makers to better understand the system. In this article, using a systems approach, a conceptual framework is developed to demonstrate various (economic and financial, technological, political, demographic, and industrial) factors that impact on the dynamics of the futures and spot prices with their interrelations. It is shown that unilateral (and univariate) analyzes is not sufficient in oil market dynamics analysis and systems approach should be applied. To do so, a subsystems diagram is developed based on literature review and analysis of oil market statistics. To validate the framework, windowed correlation analysis, Granger causality test, and regression analysis are utilized. Accordingly, a causal loop diagram is developed to describe interrelationships between main variables making the dynamics of oil prices. The framework provides practitioners with a foundation to conduct different related analyses. A quantified system dynamics model can be built based on this framework to simulate the market behavior and predict probable future trends and fluctuations.
Publisher: IEEE
Date: 03-2012
Publisher: IEEE
Date: 03-2012
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022EF002873
Abstract: Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is contingent on managing complex interactions that create synergies and trade‐offs between different goals. It is, therefore, important to improve our understanding of them, their underlying causal drivers, future behaviors, and policy implications. Prominent methods of interaction analysis that focus on modeling or data‐driven statistical correlation are often insufficient for giving an integrated view of interaction drivers and their complexity. These methods are also usually too technically complex and heavily data‐driven to provide decision‐makers with simple practical tools and easily actionable and understandable results. Here, we introduce a flexible and practical systemic approach, termed archetype analysis, that generalizes a number of recurring interaction patterns among the SDGs with unique drivers, behaviors, and policy implications. We review eight interaction archetypes as thinking aids to analyze some of the important synergies and trade‐offs, supported by several empirical ex les related to the SDGs (e.g., poverty, food, well‐being, water, energy, housing, climate, and land use) to demonstrate how they can be operationalized in practice. The interaction archetypes are aimed to help researchers and policymakers as a diagnostic tool to identify fundamental mechanisms of barriers or policy resistance to SDG progress, a comparative tool to enhance knowledge transfer between different cases with similar drivers, and a prospective tool to design synergistic policies for sustainable development.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2021
Publisher: Universitas Indonesia, Directorate of Research and Public Service
Date: 27-04-2022
Abstract: The extensive use of mobile phones has created the potential for promoting the culture and lifestyle of society. This study was conducted in Tehran it examines the relationship between mobile phone use and civic culture. Considering the effect of multiple factors and complex relationships between variables, the study employs a systems approach to investigate the mutual relationship between mobile phone use and civic culture. Analysis utilized causal loop diagrams to depict relationships among variables, where 10 key factors were identified using the decision making trial and evaluation technique. These factors have exerted the greatest impact on civic culture therefore, focusing on these factors during the urban policy-making process leads to the most effective policy that uses the least resources and budget. The ideal level of urban norms in the family was recognized as the most important influential and key factor followed by that at the community level of community acceptance in using the e-services of the city exerted the greatest impact on the issues. The outcomes could be used as a basis for policymaking in developing countries that intend to use mobile phones as a tool for promoting civic culture.
Publisher: Inderscience Publishers
Date: 2021
Publisher: Inderscience Publishers
Date: 2020
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 08-04-2020
Abstract: Project portfolio management (PPM) is a commonly used technique to align projects with strategy and to ensure adequate resourcing for projects. In this paper, to gain a better understanding of PPM dynamics, a system dynamics (SD) model was developed. To do so, an Iranian independent power producer was used as a case study in the energy sector moreover, policy options were derived and generalized for such a developer company. To cope with the complexity of business processes in a power producer company and to formulate an optimum policy, causal relations and loops were derived first and then state-flow diagrams were designed to simulate the problem in the system, as it is usual in the SD methodology. The proposed model was applied to a real-world case study to rectify managers’ viewpoint about their business dynamics and to formulate new project portfolio strategies to improve the viability of the company. The model proved how a static portfolio analysis can misguide managers in planning their project portfolio strategies, and how effective feedback can improve PPM in developing companies in the energy sector. Systems approach, especially SD methodology, has been rarely used to analyze PPM problems in the energy sector. This study highlights the implications of feedback and dynamics in PPM and tries to derive optimal value of portfolios.
Publisher: Croatian Interdisciplinary Society
Date: 2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2016
Publisher: Hindawi Limited
Date: 18-05-2022
DOI: 10.1155/2022/7436749
Abstract: Sustainable electricity development is one of the requirements for achieving sustainable development in global communities. However, due to barriers, especially in less developed countries, there is little incentive to invest in the development of sustainable electricity technologies. Therefore, there should be a change in market mechanisms, and broad support policies have to be implemented for the sustainable development of electricity. In the long run, these policies must lead to the sustainable development of energy systems. To evaluate the efficiency and effects of the proposed support policies on the sustainability of electricity generation development, this study intends to analyze the multiple and complex dimensions of the problem using a hybrid decision support model. Moreover, by defining an indicator to assess the electricity generation expansion sustainability, this study assists policymakers in making logical decisions about sustainable support programs for the electricity development based on the characteristics of the electricity market of each country. Despite uncertainties in the electricity market, simulations show that the results of this hybrid model have approximately 88% conformance with historical data. Consequently, the model can evaluate the sustainability of the system under the implementation of the proposed support programs and compare them to select the most effective one. The results show that by assuming a competitive market and rational behavior and implementing support programs with endogenous financial resources, the installed renewable capacity can be improved by up to 70.4% compared with the direct subsidy policies. Regardless of the financial burden of policies (e.g., direct subsidies) and the possibility of facing a budget deficit, these programs can be up to 79.2% more effective in the sustainability of the energy system compared with the direct subsidy policy.
Publisher: Croatian Interdisciplinary Society
Date: 2013
Publisher: Inderscience Publishers
Date: 2015
Publisher: Inderscience Publishers
Date: 2013
Location: Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Location: Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Location: Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Location: Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Location: Australia
Location: Iran (Islamic Republic of)
No related grants have been discovered for Seyed Hossein Hosseini.