ORCID Profile
0000-0002-4287-2363
Current Organisation
Monash University
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In Research Link Australia (RLA), "Research Topics" refer to ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes. These topics are either sourced from ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes listed in researchers' related grants or generated by a large language model (LLM) based on their publications.
Climate Change Processes | Atmospheric Sciences | Atmospheric Dynamics | Physical Oceanography | Meteorology | Palaeoclimatology | Geology | Atmospheric sciences | Global Change Biology | Physical oceanography | Meteorology | Climate change processes | Other Biological Sciences | Atmospheric dynamics | Environmental Management | Tectonics
Atmospheric Processes and Dynamics | Climate Change Models | Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Environments (excl. Social Impacts) | Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts) | Ecosystem Assessment and Management of Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Environments | Environmental Policy, Legislation and Standards not elsewhere classified | Expanding Knowledge in the Earth Sciences | Expanding Knowledge in the Information and Computing Sciences |
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-09-2011
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1229
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2009
Abstract: The forced response coincident with peaks in the 11-yr decadal solar oscillation (DSO) has been shown to resemble a cold event or La Niña–like pattern during December–February (DJF) in the Pacific region in observations and two global coupled climate models. Previous studies with filtered observational and model data have indicated that there could be a lagged warm event or El Niño–like response following the peaks in the DSO forcing by a few years. Here, observations and two climate model simulations are examined, and it is shown that dynamical coupled processes initiated by the response in the tropical Pacific to peaks in solar forcing produce wind-forced ocean Rossby waves near 5°N and 5°S. These reflect off the western boundary, producing downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves that contribute to transitioning the tropical Pacific to a warm event or El Niño–like pattern that lags the peaks in solar forcing by a few years.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-02-2014
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2004
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-05-2006
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3817.1
Abstract: There was a dramatic decrease in rainfall in the southwest of Australia (SWA) in the mid-1960s. A statistical method, based on the idea of analogous synoptic situations, is used to help clarify the cause of the drying. The method is designed to circumvent error in the rainfall simulated directly by a climate model, and to exploit the ability of the model to simulate large-scale fields reasonably well. The method uses relationships between patterns of various atmospheric fields with station records of rainfall to improve the simulation of the local rainfall spatial variability. The original technique was developed in a previous study. It is modified here for application to two four-member ensembles of simulations of the climate from 1870 to 1999 performed with the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). The first ensemble, called “natural,” is forced with natural variations in both volcanic activity and solar forcing. The second ensemble, called “full forcing,” also includes three types of human-induced forcing resulting from changes in greenhouse gases, ozone, and aerosols. The full-forcing runs provide a better match to observational changes in sea surface temperature in the vicinity of SWA. The observed rainfall decline is not well captured by rainfall changes simulated directly by the model in either ensemble. There is a hint that the fully forced ensemble is more realistic, but it is nothing more than a hint. The downscaling approach, on the other hand, provides a much more accurate reproduction of the day-to-day variability of rainfall in SWA than the rainfall simulated directly by the model. The downscaled ensemble mean rainfall in full forcing declines over the region with a spatial pattern that is similar to the observed decline. This contrasts with an increase of rainfall in the downscaled rainfall in the natural ensemble. These results give the clearest indication yet that anthropogenic forcing played a role in the drying of SWA. Note, however, that ambiguities remain. For ex le, although the observed decline fits within the range of downscaled model simulation, the ensemble mean rainfall decline is only about half of the observed estimate, the timing differs from the observations, drying did not occur in the downscaling of one of the four full-forced ensemble members, and not all potential forcing mechanisms are included in full forcing (e.g., land surface changes). Furthermore, while the observed rainfall decline was a sharp reduction in the 1960s, followed by a near-constant rainfall regime, the full-forcing ensemble suggests a more gradual rainfall decline over 40 yr from 1960.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2015
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1
Abstract: While internal climate variability is known to affect climate projections, its influence is often underappreciated and confused with model error. Why? In general, modeling centers contribute a small number of realizations to international climate model assessments [e.g., phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)]. As a result, model error and internal climate variability are difficult, and at times impossible, to disentangle. In response, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) community designed the CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) with the explicit goal of enabling assessment of climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. All CESM-LE simulations use a single CMIP5 model (CESM with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5). The core simulations replay the twenty to twenty-first century (1920–2100) 30 times under historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 external forcing with small initial condition differences. Two companion 1000+-yr-long preindustrial control simulations (fully coupled, prognostic atmosphere and land only) allow assessment of internal climate variability in the absence of climate change. Comprehensive outputs, including many daily fields, are available as single-variable time series on the Earth System Grid for anyone to use. Early results demonstrate the substantial influence of internal climate variability on twentieth- to twenty-first-century climate trajectories. Global warming hiatus decades occur, similar to those recently observed. Internal climate variability alone can produce projection spread comparable to that in CMIP5. Scientists and stakeholders can use CESM-LE outputs to help interpret the observational record, to understand projection spread and to plan for a range of possible futures influenced by both internal climate variability and forced climate change.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-04-2012
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00184.1
Abstract: The simulation characteristics of the Asian–Australian monsoon are documented for the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). This is the first part of a two part series examining monsoon regimes in the global tropics in the CCSM4. Comparisons are made to an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulation of the atmospheric component in CCSM4 [Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, (CAM4)] to deduce differences in the monsoon simulations run with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and with ocean–atmosphere coupling. These simulations are also compared to a previous version of the model (CCSM3) to evaluate progress. In general, monsoon rainfall is too heavy in the uncoupled AMIP run with CAM4, and monsoon rainfall amounts are generally better simulated with ocean coupling in CCSM4. Most aspects of the Asian–Australian monsoon simulations are improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3. There is a reduction of the systematic error of rainfall over the tropical Indian Ocean for the South Asian monsoon, and well-simulated connections between SSTs in the Bay of Bengal and regional South Asian monsoon precipitation. The pattern of rainfall in the Australian monsoon is closer to observations in part because of contributions from the improvements of the Indonesian Throughflow and diapycnal diffusion in CCSM4. Intraseasonal variability of the Asian–Australian monsoon is much improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3 both in terms of eastward and northward propagation characteristics, though it is still somewhat weaker than observed. An improved simulation of El Niño in CCSM4 contributes to more realistic connections between the Asian–Australian monsoon and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), though there is considerable decadal and century time scale variability of the strength of the monsoon–ENSO connection.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-09-2013
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1
Abstract: Globally averaged surface air temperatures in some decades show rapid increases (accelerated warming decades), and in other decades there is no warming trend (hiatus decades). A previous study showed that the net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere of about 1 W m−2 is associated with greater increases of deep ocean heat content below 750 m during the hiatus decades, while there is little globally averaged surface temperature increase or warming in the upper ocean layers. Here the authors examine processes involved with accelerated warming decades and address the relative roles of external forcing from increasing greenhouse gases and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Model results from the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), show that accelerated warming decades are characterized by rapid warming of globally averaged surface air temperature, greater increases of heat content in the upper ocean layers, and less heat content increase in the deep ocean, opposite to the hiatus decades. In addition to contributions from processes potentially linked to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the positive phase of the IPO, adding to the response to external forcing, is usually associated with accelerated warming decades. Conversely, hiatus decades typically occur with the negative phase of the IPO, when warming from the external forcing is overwhelmed by internally generated cooling in the tropical Pacific. Internally generated hiatus periods of up to 15 years with zero global warming trend are present in the future climate simulations. This suggests that there is a chance that the current observed hiatus could extend for several more years.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 06-2006
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3746.1
Abstract: Climate change scenario simulations with the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), a global coupled climate model, show that if concentrations of all greenhouse gases (GHGs) could have been stabilized at the year 2000, the climate system would already be committed to 0.4°C more warming by the end of the twenty-first century. Committed sea level rise by 2100 is about an order of magnitude more, percentage-wise, compared to sea level rise simulated in the twentieth century. This increase in the model is produced only by thermal expansion of seawater, and does not take into account melt from ice sheets and glaciers, which could at least double that number. Several tenths of a degree of additional warming occurs in the model for the next 200 yr in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 and A1B scenarios after stabilization in the year 2100, but with twice as much sea level rise after 100 yr, and doubling yet again in the next 100 yr to 2300. At the end of the twenty-first century, the warming in the tropical Pacific for the A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios resembles an El Niño–like response, likely due to cloud feedbacks in the model as shown in an earlier version. Greatest warming occurs at high northern latitudes and over continents. The monsoon regimes intensify somewhat in the future warmer climate, with decreases of sea level pressure at high latitudes and increases in the subtropics and parts of the midlatitudes. There is a weak summer midlatitude soil moisture drying in this model as documented in previous models. Sea ice distributions in both hemispheres are somewhat overextensive, but with about the right ice thickness at the end of the twentieth century. Future decreases in sea ice with global warming are proportional to the temperature response from the forcing scenarios, with the high forcing scenario, A2, producing an ice-free Arctic in summer by the year 2100.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 04-2006
DOI: 10.1029/2005GL025361
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2003
DOI: 10.1175/2767.1
Abstract: The transitions (from relatively strong to relatively weak monsoon) in the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) occur in northern spring for the south Asian or Indian monsoon and northern fall for the Australian monsoon involving coupled land–atmosphere–ocean processes over a large area of the Indo-Pacific region. Transitions from March–May (MAM) to June–September (JJAS) tend to set the system for the next year, with a transition to the opposite sign the following year. Previous analyses of observed data and GCM sensitivity experiments have demonstrated that the TBO (with roughly a 2–3-yr period) encompasses most ENSO years (with their well-known biennial tendency). In addition, there are other years, including many Indian Ocean dipole (or zonal mode) events, that contribute to biennial transitions. Results presented here from observations for composites of TBO evolution confirm earlier results that the Indian and Pacific SST forcings are more dominant in the TBO than circulation and meridional temperature gradient anomalies over Asia. A fundamental element of the TBO is the large-scale east–west atmospheric circulation (the Walker circulation) that links anomalous convection and precipitation, winds, and ocean dynamics across the Indian and Pacific sectors. This circulation connects convection over the Asian–Australian monsoon regions both to the central and eastern Pacific (the eastern Walker cell), and to the central and western Indian Ocean (the western Walker cell). Analyses of upper-ocean data confirm previous results and show that ENSO El Niño and La Niña events as well as Indian Ocean SST dipole (or zonal mode) events are often large- litude excursions of the TBO in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, respectively, associated with anomalous eastern and western Walker cell circulations, coupled ocean dynamics, and upper-ocean temperature and heat content anomalies. Other years with similar but lower- litude signals in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans also contribute to the TBO. Observed upper-ocean data for the Indian Ocean show that slowly eastward-propagating equatorial ocean heat content anomalies, westward-propagating ocean Rossby waves south of the equator, and anomalous cross-equatorial ocean heat transports contribute to the heat content anomalies in the Indian Ocean and thus to the ocean memory and consequent SST anomalies, which are an essential part of the TBO.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 06-2012
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00240.1
Abstract: Results are presented from experiments performed with the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). These include multiple ensemble members of twentieth-century climate with anthropogenic and natural forcings as well as single-forcing runs, sensitivity experiments with sulfate aerosol forcing, twenty-first-century representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios, and extensions for those scenarios beyond 2100–2300. Equilibrium climate sensitivity of CCSM4 is 3.20°C, and the transient climate response is 1.73°C. Global surface temperatures averaged for the last 20 years of the twenty-first century compared to the 1986–2005 reference period for six-member ensembles from CCSM4 are +0.85°, +1.64°, +2.09°, and +3.53°C for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the Atlantic, which weakens during the twentieth century in the model, nearly recovers to early twentieth-century values in RCP2.6, partially recovers in RCP4.5 and RCP6, and does not recover by 2100 in RCP8.5. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase almost everywhere in CCSM4 in a future warmer climate, with the magnitude of the increase proportional to the forcing. Precipitation intensity is also projected to increase, with dry days increasing in most subtropical areas. For future climate, there is almost no summer sea ice left in the Arctic in the high RCP8.5 scenario by 2100, but in the low RCP2.6 scenario there is substantial sea ice remaining in summer at the end of the century.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-2004
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021EA002010
Abstract: The response of precipitation extremes (PEs) to global warming is found to be nonlinear in Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and other global climate models (Pendergrass et al., 2019), which led to the concern that it is not accurate to approximate the response of PE to a single forcing as the difference between simulations with all forcing agents and those that exclude one specific forcing. This calls into question previous model‐based results that the sensitivity of PE with warming due to aerosol forcing is significantly larger than that due to greenhouse gases (GHGs). We reevaluate the PE sensitivity to GHGs and aerosols using available CESM1 ensemble simulations. We show that although the PE response to warming is nonlinear in CESM1, especially for the high warming projected in the twenty‐first‐century, PE sensitivity to aerosols is still significantly stronger than that due to GHGs when the comparison is made within similar warming regimes to avoid the bias induced by the nonlinear behavior. But the difference is smaller than previously estimated. We also conclude that the additivity assumption is largely valid to isolate the PE response due to aerosol forcing from the paired simulations including the “all forcing” experiment when the warming regime is small (e.g., 1°C–2°C in the next few decades when aerosol forcing is projected to decline and becomes a major source of uncertainty for model projection).
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-2002
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-10-2006
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 15-03-2007
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-2000
Publisher: Environmental Health Perspectives
Date: 2019
DOI: 10.1289/EHP3889
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 14-07-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064586
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2015
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-2003
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-01-2021
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-09-2011
Abstract: A set of dynamically coupled ocean–atmosphere mechanisms has previously been proposed for the Asia–Pacific tropics to produce a dominant biennial component of interannual variability [the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO)]. Namely, a strong Asian–Australian monsoon is often associated with negative SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific and a negative Indian Ocean dipole in northern fall between the strong Indian monsoon and strong Australian monsoon, and tends to be followed by a weak monsoon and positive SST anomalies in the Pacific the following year and so on. These connections are communicated through the large-scale east–west (Walker) circulation that involves the full depth of the troposphere. However, the Asia–Pacific climate system is characterized by intermittent decadal fluctuations whereby the TBO during some time periods is more pronounced than others. Observations and models are analyzed to identify processes that make the system less biennial at certain times due to one or some combination of the following:increased latitudinal extent of Pacific trade winds and wider cold tongue warmer tropical Pacific compared to tropical Indian Ocean that weakens trade winds and reduces coupling strength eastward shift of the Walker circulation reduced interannual variability of Pacific and/or Indian Ocean SSTs. Decadal time-scale SST variability associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) has been shown to alter the TBO over the Indo-Pacific region by contributing changes in either some or all of the four factors listed above. Analysis of a multicentury control run of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), shows that this decadal modulation of interannual variability is transferred via the Walker circulation to the Asian–Australian monsoon region, thus affecting the TBO and monsoon–Pacific connections. Understanding these processes is important to be able to evaluate decadal predictions and longer-term climate change in the Asia–Pacific region.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-08-2013
Publisher: No publisher found
Date: 2000
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 04-01-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL094295
Abstract: Tropical modes of variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), exert a strong influence on the interannual variability of Australian precipitation. Nevertheless, commonly used indices of ENSO and IOD variability display significant co‐variability that prevents a robust quantification of the independent contribution of each mode to precipitation anomalies. This co‐variability issue is often addressed by statistically removing ENSO or IOD variability from the precipitation field before calculating teleconnection patterns. However, by performing a suite of coupled and uncoupled modeling experiments in which either ENSO or IOD variability is physically removed, we show that ENSO‐only‐driven precipitation patterns computed by statistically removing the IOD influence significantly underestimate the impact of ENSO on Australian precipitation variability. Inspired by this, we propose a conceptual model that allows one to effectively separate the contribution of each mode to Australian precipitation variability.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 06-1998
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-04-2023
Abstract: The Southern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation response to anomalous convection in the tropical western and eastern Pacific Ocean is distinctly different. The response to westward-located heating has a meridional dipole in the South Pacific with large zonal scale and appears unable to be interpreted simply as a stationary Rossby wave train that disperses poleward and eastward from a tropical source like the meridionally arched response to eastward-located heating. This study investigates the cause of this asymmetry by examining the daily evolution of the response to suddenly switching on steady diabatic heating over a western and central/eastern equatorial Pacific location using large-ensemble integrations from the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. We focus on the austral winter months when the subtropical jet supports the development of an effective Rossby wave source in the subtropical westerlies and acts as a waveguide. We show that the subtropical jet strongly influences the height response to the western tropical Pacific heating, promoting prominent zonal circumglobal propagation. Development of a transient eddy feedback in the extratropical storm track after approximately 10 days appears to play a primary role in establishing the time-mean response, which we test through comparison with similar experiments conducted using a simplified linear model. Conversely, the height anomalies for eastern tropical Pacific heating, farther away from the subtropical jet core, have larger meridional propagation, dispersing in a typical Hoskins–Karoly manner into the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, while the transient eddy feedback plays a secondary role for the establishment of the steady response.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-01-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-018-07689-7
Abstract: After exhibiting an upward trend since 1979, Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) declined dramatically during austral spring 2016, reaching a record low by December 2016. Here we show that a combination of atmospheric and oceanic phenomena played primary roles for this decline. The anomalous atmospheric circulation was initially driven by record strength tropical convection over the Indian and western Pacific Oceans, which resulted in a wave-3 circulation pattern around Antarctica that acted to reduce SIE in the Indian Ocean, Ross and Bellingshausen Sea sectors. Subsequently, the polar stratospheric vortex weakened significantly, resulting in record weakening of the circumpolar surface westerlies that acted to decrease SIE in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean sectors. These processes appear to reflect unusual internal atmosphere-ocean variability. However, the warming trend of the tropical Indian Ocean, which may partly stem from anthropogenic forcing, may have contributed to the severity of the 2016 SIE decline.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 19-10-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2021JD035023
Abstract: Recent work has suggested that tropical Pacific decadal variability and external forcings have had a comparable influence on the observed changes in the Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy‐driven jet over the satellite era. Here we contrast the zonally asymmetric response of the Southern Hemisphere eddy‐driven jet to tropical Pacific decadal variability by designing an atmosphere‐only PAC‐A experiment using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) and comparing it with the fully coupled Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1) tropical Pacific pacemaker (PAC‐C) experiments. In both frameworks, the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are identical (model climatology plus observed anomalies), which allows the PAC‐C and PAC‐A experiments to be used to estimate the impact of coupling on teleconnections from the tropical Pacific to the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. The observed summertime South Pacific jet intensification is reproduced in both coupled and uncoupled experiments, indicating that the central and eastern tropical Pacific (hereafter, tropical Pacific) SST impacts the South Pacific jet mainly via direct atmospheric teleconnections. By contrast, only the coupled PAC‐C captures the summertime poleward shift of the South Atlantic‐Indian jet, suggesting that air‐sea coupling is essential in driving the teleconnections between tropical Pacific SST anomalies and South Atlantic‐Indian jet variations.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 28-11-2016
Abstract: A strengthening of the Amundsen Sea low from 1979 to 2013 has been shown to largely explain the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice concentration in the eastern Ross Sea and decrease in the Bellingshausen Sea. Here it is shown that while these changes are not generally seen in freely running coupled climate model simulations, they are reproduced in simulations of two independent coupled climate models: one constrained by observed sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific and the other by observed surface wind stress in the tropics. This analysis confirms previous results and strengthens the conclusion that the phase change in the interdecadal Pacific oscillation from positive to negative over 1979–2013 contributed to the observed strengthening of the Amundsen Sea low and the associated pattern of Antarctic sea ice change during this period. New support for this conclusion is provided by simulated trends in spatial patterns of sea ice concentrations that are similar to those observed. These results highlight the importance of accounting for teleconnections from low to high latitudes in both model simulations and observations of Antarctic sea ice variability and change.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2016
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-10-2000
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-04-2012
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00185.1
Abstract: This is the second part of a two part series studying simulation characteristics of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for various monsoon regimes around the global tropics. Here, the West African, East African, North American, and South American monsoons are documented in CCSM4. Comparisons are made to an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulation of the atmospheric component in CCSM4 (CAM4), to deduce differences in the monsoon simulations run with observed SSTs and with ocean–atmosphere coupling. These simulations are also compared to a previous version of the coupled model (CCSM3) to evaluate progress. In most, but not all instances, monsoon rainfall is too heavy in the uncoupled AMIP run with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4), and monsoon rainfall amounts are generally better simulated with ocean coupling in CCSM4. Some aspects of the monsoon simulations are improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3. Early-season rainfall in the West African monsoon is better simulated in CAM4 than in CCSM4 presumably because of the specification of SSTs in the Gulf of Guinea, but the Sahel rainfall season is captured better in CCSM4 as are the African easterly jet and the tropical easterly jet. Improvements in the simulation of the Sahel rainy season (July, August, and September) in CCSM4 compared with CCSM3 are significant, but problems remain in the simulation of the early season (May and June) in association with the misrepresentation of eastern Atlantic (Gulf of Guinea) SSTs. Precipitation distributions and the southwesterly low-level inflow in the North American monsoon are improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3. Both CAM4 and CCSM4 reproduce the seasonal evolution of rainfall over the South American monsoon region, but the location of maximum rainfall is misplaced to the northeast in both models.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 04-07-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073832
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 12-09-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL104313
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 28-09-2005
DOI: 10.1029/2005GL023680
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 06-2006
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3745.1
Abstract: Simulations of regional monsoon regimes, including the Indian, Australian, West African, South American, and North American monsoons, are described for the T85 version of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and compared to observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type SST-forced simulations with the Community Atmospheric Model version 3 (CAM3) at T42 and T85. There are notable improvements in the regional aspects of the precipitation simulations in going to the higher-resolution T85 compared to T42 where topography is important (e.g., Ethiopian Highlands, South American Andes, and Tibetan Plateau). For the T85 coupled version of CCSM3, systematic SST errors are associated with regional precipitation errors in the monsoon regimes of South America and West Africa, though some aspects of the monsoon simulations, particularly in Asia, improve in the coupled model compared to the SST-forced simulations. There is very little realistic intraseasonal monsoon variability in the CCSM3 consistent with earlier versions of the model. Teleconnections to the tropical Pacific are well simulated for the South Asian monsoon.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-10-2019
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 14-11-2003
Abstract: Several indices of large-scale patterns of surface temperature variation were used to investigate climate change in North America over the 20th century. The observed variability of these indices was simulated well by a number of climate models. Comparison of index trends in observations and model simulations shows that North American temperature changes from 1950 to 1999 were unlikely to be due to natural climate variation alone. Observed trends over this period are consistent with simulations that include anthropogenic forcing from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. However, most of the observed warming from 1900 to 1949 was likely due to natural climate variation.
Publisher: International Glaciological Society
Date: 2001
DOI: 10.3189/172756401781818077
Abstract: A global atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice general circulation model (GCM) is used in simulations of climate with greenhouse gas concentrations and sulfate aerosols prescribed from observational data (1870−1995) and future projections (1995−2100). Simulations that include the variability in solar flux from 1870 through 1995 are also performed. The variation in solar flux of ± 2 W m −2 produces a global temperature change of ± 0.2°C in the model. The more recent simulated warming trend produced by increasing greenhouse gases exceeds this solar-flux warming, although the solar flux contributes to some of the simulated present-day warm temperatures. The future increases in greenhouse gases produce an increase in global temperature of 1.2°C over 70 years, with significant decreases in Arctic ice thickness and area. The model exhibits an atmospheric pressure mode similar to the Arctic Oscillation, with different correlation indices between the North Atlantic and North Pacific pressure anomalies.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-2004
DOI: 10.1029/2004GL019998
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 16-10-2012
DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053409
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 12-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2011GL049863
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-2001
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 31-07-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-020-17683-7
Abstract: Despite the observed monotonic increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations, global mean temperature displays important decadal fluctuations typically attributed to both external forcing and internal variability. Here, we provide a robust quantification of the relative contributions of anthropogenic, natural, and internally-driven decadal variability of global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) by using a unique dataset consisting of 30-member large initial-condition ensembles with five Earth System Models (ESM-LE). We present evidence that a large fraction (~29–53%) of the simulated decadal-scale variance in in idual timeseries of GMSST over 1950–2010 is externally forced and largely linked to the representation of volcanic aerosols. Comparison with the future (2010–2070) period suggests that external forcing provides a source of additional decadal-scale variability in the historical period. Given the unpredictable nature of future volcanic aerosol forcing, it is suggested that a large portion of decadal GMSST variability might not be predictable.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 06-2003
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 13-05-2013
DOI: 10.1002/GRL.50361
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-07-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2751
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-2001
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020EA001296
Abstract: Simulations of 21st century climate with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) using the standard atmosphere (CAM6), denoted CESM2(CAM6), and the latest generation of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6), denoted CESM2(WACCM6), are presented, and a survey of general results is described. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of CESM2(CAM6) is 5.3°C, and CESM2(WACCM6) is 4.8°C, while the transient climate response (TCR) is 2.1°C in CESM2(CAM6) and 2.0°C in CESM2(WACCM6). Thus, these two CESM2 model versions have higher values of ECS than the previous generation of model, the CESM (CAM5) (hereafter CESM1), that had an ECS of 4.1°C, though the CESM2 versions have lower values of TCR compared to the CESM1 with a somewhat higher value of 2.3°C. All model versions produce credible simulations of the time evolution of historical global surface temperature. The higher ECS values for the CESM2 versions are reflected in higher values of global surface temperature increase by 2,100 in CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) compared to CESM1 between comparable emission scenarios for the high forcing scenario. Future warming among CESM2 model versions and scenarios erges around 2050. The larger values of TCR and ECS in CESM2(CAM6) compared to CESM1 are manifested by greater warming in the tropics. Associated with a higher climate sensitivity, for CESM2(CAM6) the first instance of an ice‐free Arctic in September occurs for all scenarios and ensemble members in the 2030–2050 time frame, but about a decade later in CESM2(WACCM6), occurring around 2040–2060.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 06-2000
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-2003
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 10-2007
DOI: 10.1029/2007GL030948
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2019MS001962
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-04-2001
DOI: 10.1007/PL00007929
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-09-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2357
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 23-05-2003
Abstract: Two independent analyses of the same satellite-based radiative emissions data yield tropospheric temperature trends that differ by 0.1°C per decade over 1979 to 2001. The troposphere warms appreciably in one satellite data set, while the other data set shows little overall change. These satellite data uncertainties are important in studies seekingto identify human effects on climate. A model-predicted “fingerprint” of combined anthropogenic and natural effects is statistically detectable only in the satellite data set with a warmingtroposphere. Our findings show that claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties.
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 29-11-2012
Abstract: We perform a multimodel detection and attribution study with climate model simulation output and satellite-based measurements of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature change. We use simulation output from 20 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This multimodel archive provides estimates of the signal pattern in response to combined anthropogenic and natural external forcing (the fingerprint) and the noise of internally generated variability. Using these estimates, we calculate signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios to quantify the strength of the fingerprint in the observations relative to fingerprint strength in natural climate noise. For changes in lower stratospheric temperature between 1979 and 2011, S/N ratios vary from 26 to 36, depending on the choice of observational dataset. In the lower troposphere, the fingerprint strength in observations is smaller, but S/N ratios are still significant at the 1% level or better, and range from three to eight. We find no evidence that these ratios are spuriously inflated by model variability errors. After removing all global mean signals, model fingerprints remain identifiable in 70% of the tests involving tropospheric temperature changes. Despite such agreement in the large-scale features of model and observed geographical patterns of atmospheric temperature change, most models do not replicate the size of the observed changes. On average, the models analyzed underestimate the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and overestimate the warming of the troposphere. Although the precise causes of such differences are unclear, model biases in lower stratospheric temperature trends are likely to be reduced by more realistic treatment of stratospheric ozone depletion and volcanic aerosol forcing.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-01-2014
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 28-08-2009
Abstract: The radiative output of the Sun varies distinctly with the 11-year cycle of sunspots, although the change in energy output is small—less than a tenth of a percent in magnitude. Nevertheless, that small variation produces changes in sea surface temperatures two or three times as large as it should, and the mechanism by which this occurs has remained unclear. Meehl et al. (p. 1114 see the news story by Kerr ) employ three global, coupled climate models to simulate this phenomenon. Two mechanisms appear to act in conjunction to cause this ocean response: a change in the abundance of stratospheric ozone owing to fluctuations of shortwave solar forcing and a coupled surface ocean-atmosphere response. This combination of effects enhances precipitation maxima, reduces low-latitude cloud cover, and lowers the temperature of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, resulting in the larger warm-to-cold variation.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-07-2008
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.1730
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-2001
DOI: 10.1029/2000GL012283
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 28-10-2012
DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053386
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 2020
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-2004
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-10041
Abstract: The widening of the Southern Hemisphere tropical meridional circulation has been attributed to various forcings from increased greenhouse gases, ozone depletion and natural variability. While climate models can reproduce some characteristics of this observed change, there is some uncertainty in the operating mechanisms and driving regions setting the edge of the tropical circulation.& Here we examine the impacts of systematic model biases of the atmosphere-only Unified Model onto the simulation of the Southern Hemisphere tropical extent. We utilise nudging experiments with prescribed sea-surface temperatures, where potential temperature and horizontal winds are relaxed back to reanalysis for a 20-year period. Specifically, experiments with regionally-defined bias correction aide to determine the influence of remote model biases on the tropical width. The experiments are applied to different tropical width metrics previously identified to measure the boundary between the tropical to extratropical circulation. We uncover a more consistent improvement of the location of the Hadley cell edge by correcting Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation biases, than tropical ones. The analysis is further expanded to the range of atmosphere-only model simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We explore the relationships between tropical and extratropical biases and the models& #8217 representation of the Hadley cell.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-2005
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE04237
Abstract: Ocean thermal expansion contributes significantly to sea-level variability and rise. However, observed decadal variability in ocean heat content and sea level has not been reproduced well in climate models. Aerosols injected into the stratosphere during volcanic eruptions scatter incoming solar radiation, and cause a rapid cooling of the atmosphere and a reduction in rainfall, as well as other changes in the climate system. Here we use observations of ocean heat content and a set of climate simulations to show that large volcanic eruptions result in rapid reductions in ocean heat content and global mean sea level. For the Mt Pinatubo eruption, we estimate a reduction in ocean heat content of about 3 x 10(22) J and a global sea-level fall of about 5 mm. Over the three years following such an eruption, we estimate a decrease in evaporation of up to 0.1 mm d(-1), comparable to observed changes in mean land precipitation. The recovery of sea level following the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 explains about half of the difference between the long-term rate of sea-level rise of 1.8 mm yr(-1) (for 1950-2000), and the higher rate estimated for the more recent period where satellite altimeter data are available (1993-2000).
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-04-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2021JD036106
Abstract: Since the late 1970s, observations have shown a widening of the tropical Hadley cell (HC) circulation. State‐of‐the‐art climate models reproduce the general trend along with a projected continuous expansion. Discrepancies in expansion rates of observation‐ and model‐based studies have been attributed to differences in applied methods, natural variability and model shortcomings. Furthermore, the driving influence of tropical or extratropical processes on these changes is not well understood. All of this highlights the dynamical mechanisms and the region of origin controlling the tropical width are still insufficiently understood. Here we examine the influence of systematic model biases of the atmosphere‐only Unified Model (UM) onto the simulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropical edge. We utilize nudged experiments with prescribed sea surface temperatures, where potential temperature and horizontal winds are relaxed back to ERA‐Interim reanalysis for a 20‐year period in selected regions. Correcting model biases in the tropics and extratropics separately allows us to dissect the dominant remote impacts of present model errors onto the SH tropical edge simulation. The experiments are applied to established tropical width metrics ranging from near‐surface to upper‐level metrics capturing the poleward flank of the HC. We find both regions work remotely to reduce errors in the UM fields and location of the tropical edge. Surprisingly, correcting the extratropical biases, south of 45°S, more consistently improves the tropical width across the metrics and seasons than nudging the tropics (10°N–10°S). These findings demonstrate the substantial role of extratropical influences in locating the SH tropical edge.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-09-2018
Abstract: Given the Paris Agreement it is imperative there is greater understanding of the consequences of limiting global warming to the target 1.5° and 2°C levels above preindustrial conditions. It is challenging to quantify changes across a small increment of global warming, so a pattern-scaling approach may be considered. Here we investigate the validity of such an approach by comprehensively examining how well local temperatures and warming trends in a 1.5°C world predict local temperatures at global warming of 2°C. Ensembles of transient coupled climate simulations from multiple models under different scenarios were compared and in idual model responses were analyzed. For many places, the multimodel forced response of seasonal-average temperatures is approximately linear with global warming between 1.5° and 2°C. However, in idual model results vary and large contributions from nonlinear changes in unforced variability or the forced response cannot be ruled out. In some regions, such as East Asia, models simulate substantially greater warming than is expected from linear scaling. Examining East Asia during boreal summer, we find that increased warming in the simulated 2°C world relative to scaling up from 1.5°C is related to reduced anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Our findings suggest that, where forcings other than those due to greenhouse gas emissions change, the warming experienced in a 1.5°C world is a poor predictor for local climate at 2°C of global warming. In addition to the analysis of the linearity in the forced climate change signal, we find that natural variability remains a substantial contribution to uncertainty at these low-warming targets.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 22-09-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2019JD031946
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 23-08-2013
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00572.1
Abstract: Future climate change projections for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are presented for the Community Earth System Model version 1 that includes the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 [CESM1(CAM5)]. These results are compared to the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) and include simulations using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios, and extensions for those scenarios beyond 2100 to 2300. Equilibrium climate sensitivity of CESM1(CAM5) is 4.10°C, which is higher than the CCSM4 value of 3.20°C. The transient climate response is 2.33°C, compared to the CCSM4 value of 1.73°C. Thus, even though CESM1(CAM5) includes both the direct and indirect effects of aerosols (CCSM4 had only the direct effect), the overall climate system response including forcing and feedbacks is greater in CESM1(CAM5) compared to CCSM4. The Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CESM1(CAM5) weakens considerably in the twenty-first century in all the RCP scenarios, and recovers more slowly in the lower forcing scenarios. The total aerosol optical depth (AOD) changes from ~0.12 in 2006 to ~0.10 in 2100, compared to a preindustrial 1850 value of 0.08, so there is less negative forcing (a net positive forcing) from that source during the twenty-first century. Consequently, the change from 2006 to 2100 in aerosol direct forcing in CESM1(CAM5) contributes to greater twenty-first century warming relative to CCSM4. There is greater Arctic warming and sea ice loss in CESM1(CAM5), with an ice-free summer Arctic occurring by about 2060 in RCP8.5 (2040s in September) as opposed to about 2100 in CCSM4 (2060s in September).
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-06-2008
Abstract: A six-member ensemble of twentieth-century simulations with changes to only time-evolving global distributions of black carbon aerosols in a global coupled climate model is analyzed to study the effects of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the Indian monsoon. The BC aerosols act to increase lower-tropospheric heating over South Asia and reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface during the dry season, as noted in previous studies. The increased meridional tropospheric temperature gradient in the premonsoon months of March–April–May (MAM), particularly between the elevated heat source of the Tibetan Plateau and areas to the south, contributes to enhanced precipitation over India in those months. With the onset of the monsoon, the reduced surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, and over India that extend to the Himalayas act to reduce monsoon rainfall over India itself, with some small increases over the Tibetan Plateau. Precipitation over China generally decreases due to the BC aerosol effects. There is a weakened latitudinal SST gradient resulting from BC aerosols in the model simulations as seen in the observations, and this is present in the multiple-forcings experiments with the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), which includes natural and anthropogenic forcings (including BC aerosols). The BC aerosols and consequent weakened latitudinal SST gradient in those experiments are associated with increased precipitation during MAM in northern India and over the Tibetan Plateau, with some decreased precipitation over southwest India, the Bay of Bengal, Burma, Thailand, and Malaysia, as seen in observations. During the summer monsoon season, the model experiments show that BC aerosols have likely contributed to observed decreasing precipitation trends over parts of India, Bangladesh, Burma, and Thailand. Analysis of single ensemble members from the multiple-forcings experiment suggests that the observed increasing precipitation trends over southern China appear to be associated with natural variability connected to surface temperature changes in the northwest Pacific.
Publisher: Past Global Changes (PAGES)
Date: 07-2017
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 2011
DOI: 10.1029/2010GL045384
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-07-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069453
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-06-2006
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3774.1
Abstract: An observed trend in the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) during recent decades has involved an intensification of the polar vortex. The source of this trend is a matter of scientific debate with stratospheric ozone losses, greenhouse gas increases, and natural variability all being possible contenders. Because it is difficult to separate the contribution of various external forcings to the observed trend, a state-of-the-art global coupled model is utilized here. Ensembles of twentieth-century simulations forced with the observed time series of greenhouse gases, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, sulfate aerosols, volcanic aerosols, solar variability, and various combinations of these are used to examine the annular mode trends in comparison to observations, in an attempt to isolate the response of the climate system to each in idual forcing. It is found that ozone changes are the biggest contributor to the observed summertime intensification of the southern polar vortex in the second half of the twentieth century, with increases of greenhouse gases also being a necessary factor in the reproduction of the observed trends at the surface. Although stratospheric ozone losses are expected to stabilize and eventually recover to preindustrial levels over the course of the twenty-first century, these results show that increasing greenhouse gases will continue to intensify the polar vortex throughout the twenty-first century, but that radiative forcing will cause widespread temperature increases over the entire Southern Hemisphere.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-2012
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1529
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 05-2002
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-04-2000
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 22-08-2003
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-03-2019
DOI: 10.1002/WCC.577
Abstract: There has been much attention given to the spatial and temporal characteristics of changes in mean and extreme rainfall over Australia during the past century. As Australia is the second driest continent on Earth, reliable projections around the trends and variability in future rainfall are crucial for policymakers and water resource management. This article comprehensively reviews the current published literature on trends in Australia's rainfall from pre‐instrumental and instrumental records, the climatic drivers of Australia's rainfall variability, attribution of the long‐term trends, extreme rainfall attribution methods with particular reference to a recent case study (2010–2012 east Australia rainfall event) and projected changes of mean and extreme rainfall over Australia during the 21st century. Notable trends in the observational record of rainfall in Australia are a decrease in mean rainfall in southwest and southeast Australia and an increase in northwest Australia since 1950. The general consensus of research into Australia's future rainfall is that mean rainfall will continue to decrease in southwest Australia in a warming world, while changes over northern and eastern Australia remain uncertain. There are still significant knowledge gaps around the causes of observed trends in rainfall both in the mean and extremes, the ability of climate models to accurately represent rainfall in the Australian region and future rainfall projections. These gaps are identified, and avenues for future research directions are proposed. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends Modern Climate Change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-01-2016
Publisher: La Trobe
Date: 2021
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 18-03-2005
Abstract: Two global coupled climate models show that even if the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had been stabilized in the year 2000, we are already committed to further global warming of about another half degree and an additional 320% sea level rise caused by thermal expansion by the end of the 21st century. Projected weakening of the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean does not lead to a net cooling in Europe. At any given point in time, even if concentrations are stabilized, there is a commitment to future climate changes that will be greater than those we have already observed.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 20-10-2018
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL079989
Abstract: The trend for cold‐season (November‐December‐January‐February, NDJF) decreases in Arctic sea ice extent from 2000 to 2014 was about a factor of two larger than the 1979–2000 trend, and the warm‐season (June‐July‐August‐September, JJAS) trend was about a factor of three larger. Sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric model show that a negative convective heating anomaly in the tropical Pacific, associated with the negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation phase after 2000, produces an atmospheric teleconnection pattern over the Arctic comparable to the observations in NDJF but not JJAS. A positive convective heating anomaly over the tropical Atlantic, associated with warming sea surface temperatures there in the 2000–2014 period, produces a teleconnection pattern over the Arctic comparable to the observations in JJAS but not NDJF. Thus, the observed anomalously strong Arctic surface winds and sea ice drifts after 2000, which produced accelerated decreases in sea ice extent, likely had contributions from decadal‐time scale variability in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 25-01-2021
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001469
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-2002
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-2022
Abstract: Stationary Rossby waves, forced by the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), have an important role in Southern Hemisphere (SH) weather and climate, including promoting Australian drought and driving Antarctic sea ice variations. However, the dynamics of these teleconnections are not fully understood. During winter, the subtropical jet (STJ) should prohibit continuous propagation of a stationary Rossby wave into the SH extratropics due to the negative meridional gradient of absolute vorticity ( ) on its poleward flank. The mechanisms that enable this teleconnection are investigated using observational and reanalysis datasets, a hierarchy of atmospheric model experiments and Rossby wave diagnostics. We conduct 90-member simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5, with an imposed local diabatic heating anomaly over the eastern Indian Ocean. We find an initial zonal propagation along the STJ waveguide, but after about 10 days, a poleward-arcing wave train appears in the extratropics that has the characteristics of the observed IOD teleconnection. Our results suggest that the Rossby wave can overcome the negative barrier by (i) propagating directly poleward in the midtroposphere and thus avoiding this evanescent region in the upper troposphere, (ii) partly propagating directly through this barrier, and (iii) propagating around this barrier farther upstream to the west. A transient eddy feedback, previously postulated to be the key mechanism to allow the stationary Rossby wave to appear on the poleward side of the negative region, reinforces the response but is not a requisite, which we confirm through comparison with a simplified linear model.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-11-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084057
Abstract: Two high‐resolution versions of a Coupled Earth System Model (CESM1.3: 0.25° atmosphere, 1° ocean CESM1.1: 0.25° atmosphere, 0.1° ocean) are compared to the standard resolution CESM1.1 and CESM1.3 (1° atmosphere, 1° ocean). The CESM1.3 versions are documented, and the consequences of model resolution, air‐sea coupling, and physics in the atmospheric models are studied with regard to storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere as represented by 850‐hPa eddy kinetic energy. Increasing the resolution from 1° to 0.25° in the atmosphere (same physics) coupled to the 1° ocean intensifies the strength of the storm tracks closer to observations. The 0.25° atmosphere with the older CESM1.1 physics coupled to the 0.1° ocean has fewer low clouds, warmer Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures, a weaker meridional temperature gradient, and a degraded storm track simulation compared to the 0.25° atmosphere with CESM1.3 physics coupled to the 1° ocean. Therefore, deficient physics in the atmospheric model can negate the gains attained by higher resolution in atmosphere and ocean.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-1998
DOI: 10.1029/1998GL900088
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-06-2008
Abstract: The 11-yr solar cycle [decadal solar oscillation (DSO)] at its peaks strengthens the climatological precipitation maxima in the tropical Pacific during northern winter. Results from two global coupled climate model ensemble simulations of twentieth-century climate that include anthropogenic (greenhouse gases, ozone, and sulfate aerosols, as well as black carbon aerosols in one of the models) and natural (volcano and solar) forcings agree with observations in the Pacific region, though the litude of the response in the models is about half the magnitude of the observations. These models have poorly resolved stratospheres and no 11-yr ozone variations, so the mechanism depends almost entirely on the increased solar forcing at peaks in the DSO acting on the ocean surface in clear sky areas of the equatorial and subtropical Pacific. Mainly due to geometrical considerations and cloud feedbacks, this solar forcing can be nearly an order of magnitude greater in those regions than the globally averaged solar forcing. The mechanism involves the increased solar forcing at the surface being manifested by increased latent heat flux and evaporation. The resulting moisture is carried to the convergence zones by the trade winds, thereby strengthening the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ). Once these precipitation regimes begin to intensify, an lifying set of coupled feedbacks similar to that in cold events (or La Niña events) occurs. There is a strengthening of the trades and greater upwelling of colder water that extends the equatorial cold tongue farther west and reduces precipitation across the equatorial Pacific, while increasing precipitation even more in the ITCZ and SPCZ. Experiments with the atmosphere component from one of the coupled models are performed in which heating anomalies similar to those observed during DSO peaks are specified in the tropical Pacific. The result is an anomalous Rossby wave response in the atmosphere and consequent positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the North Pacific extending to western North America. These patterns match features that occur during DSO peak years in observations and the coupled models.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2023
Abstract: The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) describes the annular or zonal component of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics and influences surface climate across the SH. Although this annular flow is dominant in austral summer, in other seasons considerable zonal asymmetries are evident, reflecting a zonal wave 3 (ZW3) pattern. We define an index representing asymmetric flow using the first two leading modes of meridional wind variability in the SH. Two orthogonal ZW3 indices are used together to capture longitudinal shifts in the wave train and their connection to tropical convection. We compare the impacts of the SAM and ZW3 on surface climate by examining composites of temperature and precipitation fields during each season. Impacts on mean and extreme surface climates are assessed. We find that the SAM and ZW3 are not clearly separated modes, but rather, ZW3 modulates the impact of the SAM across the midlatitudes. The SAM influence on regional temperature and precipitation is similar for both mean impacts and extremes. The ZW3 influence on extremes is more varied across indices and does not always reflect the ZW3 impact on mean fields. Notably, lified ZW3 activity has a significant influence on the number of midlatitude fronts and frontal rainfall, highlighting the importance of considering ZW3 when exploring the surface climate impacts of large-scale SH circulation states, particularly for nonsummer seasons. Variations in the strength and position of the midlatitude westerly winds have a strong influence on surface climates. While these winds are predominantly zonally symmetric in the Southern Hemisphere, few studies to date have explored the role of the asymmetric component of this circulation, particularly for seasons outside of summer. By defining two new indices of meridional circulation, this study reveals new important impacts on temperature, rainfall, and the likelihood of extreme climates in regions of southern Australia and South America, and sea ice regions around Antarctica. These findings question the validity of considering only zonal-mean winds for climate studies of the Southern Hemisphere and have important implications for the seasonal forecasting and predictability of extreme climate events in the near future.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-2010
DOI: 10.1029/2010GL044399
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 27-05-2013
DOI: 10.1002/JGRD.50316
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 27-04-2012
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00655.1
Abstract: A linear trend calculated for observed annual mean surface air temperatures over the United States for the second-half of the twentieth century shows a slight cooling over the southeastern part of the country, the so-called warming hole, while temperatures over the rest of the country rose significantly. This east–west gradient of average temperature change has contributed to the observed pattern of changes of record temperatures as given by the ratio of daily record high temperatures to record low temperatures with a comparable east–west gradient. Ensemble averages of twentieth-century climate simulations in the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), show a slight west–east warming gradient but no warming hole. A warming hole appears in only several ensemble members in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset and in one ensemble member of simulated twentieth-century climate in CCSM3. In this model the warming hole is produced mostly from internal decadal time-scale variability originating mainly from the equatorial central Pacific associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Analyses of a long control run of the coupled model, and specified convective heating anomaly experiments in the atmosphere-only version of the model, trace the forcing of the warming hole to positive convective heating anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean near the date line. Cold-air advection into the southeastern United States in winter, and low-level moisture convergence in that region in summer, contribute most to the warming hole in those seasons. Projections show a disappearance of the warming hole, but ongoing greater surface temperature increases in the western United States compared to the eastern United States.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-01-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-018-07865-9
Abstract: After nearly three decades of observed increasing trends of Antarctic sea ice extent, in September-October-November 2016, there was a dramatic decrease. Here we document factors that contributed to that decrease. An atmosphere-only model with a specified positive convective heating anomaly in the eastern Indian/western Pacific Ocean, representing the record positive precipitation anomalies there in September-October-November 2016, produces an anomalous atmospheric Rossby wave response with mid- and high latitude surface wind anomalies that contribute to the decrease of Antarctic sea ice extent. The sustained decreases of Antarctic sea ice extent after late 2016 are associated with a warmer upper Southern Ocean. This is the culmination of a negative decadal trend of wind stress curl with positive Southern Annular Mode and negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Ekman suction that results in warmer water being moved upward in the column closer to the surface, a transition to positive Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation around 2014–2016, and negative Southern Annular Mode in late 2016.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-16955
Abstract: Tropical variability has long been identified as having an important influence on climate variability and change in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). In all three ocean basins, heating from tropical convection can generate stationary Rossby waves that propagate polewards and eastwards towards Antarctica, influencing temperature and rainfall patterns along the way. Recent studies have also highlighted the reverse & #8211 an influence of the polar regions on changes further north, for ex le, the stratospheric weakening of the SH polar vortex that contributed to the prolonged drought and extreme fire weather in Australia in the spring and summer of 2019. On longer timescales, the climate of the Southern Hemisphere has undergone significant changes over the past 30-50 years. The extratropical atmosphere has seen a shift to a more positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode and a stronger and more poleward eddy-driven jet, particularly in austral summer. While the influence of anthropogenic forcing such as ozone depletion and increasing greenhouse gases on these changes is well-established, the importance of tropical to extratropical interactions in shaping some recent events is becoming more evident. Ex les include the deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low which has been associated with tropical Pacific decadal variability and the rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice in 2016 which was linked to a record positive Indian Ocean Dipole event. Recent insights into tropical to extratropical interactions, including the mechanisms through which they operate and links to observed changes on interannual to interdecadal timescales will be discussed.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-12-2020
Location: United States of America
Location: United States of America
Start Date: 2021
End Date: 2024
Funder: Marsden Fund
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 04-2020
End Date: 07-2021
Amount: $580,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 02-2024
End Date: 01-2030
Amount: $35,000,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 06-2022
End Date: 06-2025
Amount: $423,961.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 08-2017
End Date: 12-2024
Amount: $30,050,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 06-2021
End Date: 06-2030
Amount: $36,000,000.00
Funder: Australian Research Council
View Funded Activity