ORCID Profile
0000-0002-3369-4673
Current Organisation
US Geological Survey
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Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-02-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-020-59018-Y
Abstract: Beaches around the world continuously adjust to daily and seasonal changes in wave and tide conditions, which are themselves changing over longer time-scales. Different approaches to predict multi-year shoreline evolution have been implemented however, robust and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution are still problematic even in short-term scenarios (shorter than decadal). Here we show results of a modelling competition, where 19 numerical models (a mix of established shoreline models and machine learning techniques) were tested using data collected for Tairua beach, New Zealand with 18 years of daily averaged alongshore shoreline position and beach rotation (orientation) data obtained from a camera system. In general, traditional shoreline models and machine learning techniques were able to reproduce shoreline changes during the calibration period (1999–2014) for normal conditions but some of the model struggled to predict extreme and fast oscillations. During the forecast period (unseen data, 2014–2017), both approaches showed a decrease in models’ capability to predict the shoreline position. This was more evident for some of the machine learning algorithms. A model ensemble performed better than in idual models and enables assessment of uncertainties in model architecture. Research-coordinated approaches (e.g., modelling competitions) can fuel advances in predictive capabilities and provide a forum for the discussion about the advantages/disadvantages of available models.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 28-11-2022
DOI: 10.1017/CFT.2022.4
Abstract: Satellite remote sensing is transforming coastal science from a “data-poor” field into a “data-rich” field. Sandy beaches are dynamic landscapes that change in response to long-term pressures, short-term pulses, and anthropogenic interventions. Until recently, the rate and breadth of beach change have outpaced our ability to monitor those changes, due to the spatiotemporal limitations of our observational capacity. Over the past several decades, only a handful of beaches worldwide have been regularly monitored with accurate yet expensive in situ surveys. The long-term coastal-change data of these few well-monitored beaches have led to in-depth understanding of many site-specific coastal processes. However, because the best-monitored beaches are not representative of all beaches, much remains unknown about the processes and fate of the other % of unmonitored beaches worldwide. The fleet of Earth-observing satellites has enabled multiscale monitoring of beaches, for the very first time, by providing imagery with global coverage and up to daily frequency. The long-standing and ever-expanding archive of satellite imagery will enable coastal scientists to investigate coastal change at sites vulnerable to future sea-level rise, that is, (almost) everywhere. In the past decade, our capability to observe coastal change from space has grown substantially with computing and algorithmic power. Yet, further advances are needed in automating monitoring using machine learning, deep learning, and computer vision to fully leverage this massive treasure trove of data. Extensive monitoring and investigation of the causes and effects of coastal change at the requisite spatiotemporal scales will provide coastal managers with additional, valuable information to evaluate problems and solutions, addressing the potential for widespread beach loss due to accelerated sea-level rise, development, and reduced sediment supply. Monitoring from Earth-observing satellites is currently the only means of providing seamless data with high spatiotemporal resolution at the global scale of the impending impacts of climate change on coastal systems.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2022JF006936
Abstract: Satellite‐derived shoreline observations combined with dynamic shoreline models enable fine‐scale predictions of coastal change across large spatiotemporal scales. Here, we present a satellite‐data‐assimilated, “littoral‐cell”‐based, ensemble Kalman‐filter shoreline model to predict coastal change and uncertainty due to waves, sea‐level rise (SLR), and other natural and anthropogenic processes. We apply the developed ensemble model to the entire California coastline (approximately 1,760 km), much of which is sparsely monitored with traditional survey methods (e.g., Lidar/GPS). Water‐level‐corrected, satellite‐derived shoreline observations (obtained from the CoastSat toolbox) offer a nearly unbiased representation of in situ surveyed shorelines (e.g., mean sea‐level elevation contours) at Ocean Beach, San Francisco. We demonstrate that model calibration with satellite observations during a 20‐year hindcast period (1995–2015) provides nearly equivalent model forecast accuracy during a validation period (2015–2020) compared to model calibration with monthly in situ observations at Ocean Beach. When comparing model‐predicted shoreline positions to satellite‐derived observations, the model achieves an accuracy of m RMSE for nearly half of the entire California coastline for the validation period. The calibrated/validated model is then applied for multi‐decadal simulations of shoreline change due to projected wave and sea‐level conditions, while holding the model parameters fixed. By 2100, the model estimates that 24%–75% of California's beaches may become completely eroded due to SLR scenarios of 1.0–3.0 m, respectively. The satellite‐data‐assimilated modeling system presented here is generally applicable to a variety of coastal settings around the world owing to the global coverage of satellite imagery.
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