ORCID Profile
0000-0003-0709-1315
Current Organisation
University of Oxford
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Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 26-07-2017
Abstract: Abstract. We present an optimal-estimation (OE) retrieval scheme for stratospheric sulfur dioxide from the High-Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder 2 (HIRS/2) instruments on the NOAA and MetOp platforms, an infrared radiometer that has been operational since 1979. This algorithm is an improvement upon a previous method based on channel brightness temperature differences, which demonstrated the potential for monitoring volcanic SO2 using HIRS/2. The Prata method is fast but of limited accuracy. This algorithm uses an optimal-estimation retrieval approach yielding increased accuracy for only moderate computational cost. This is principally achieved by fitting the column water vapour and accounting for its interference in the retrieval of SO2. A cloud and aerosol model is used to evaluate the sensitivity of the scheme to the presence of ash and water/ice cloud. This identifies that cloud or ash above 6 km limits the accuracy of the water vapour fit, increasing the error in the SO2 estimate. Cloud top height is also retrieved. The scheme is applied to a case study event, the 1991 eruption of Cerro Hudson in Chile. The total erupted mass of SO2 is estimated to be 2300 kT ± 600 kT. This confirms it as one of the largest events since the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, and of comparable scale to the Northern Hemisphere eruption of Kasatochi in 2008. This retrieval method yields a minimum mass per unit area detection limit of 3 DU, which is slightly less than that for the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), the only other instrument capable of monitoring SO2 from 1979 to 1996. We show an initial comparison to TOMS for part of this eruption, with broadly consistent results. Operating in the infrared (IR), HIRS has the advantage of being able to measure both during the day and at night, and there have frequently been multiple HIRS instruments operated simultaneously for better than daily s ling. If applied to all data from the series of past and future HIRS instruments, this method presents the opportunity to produce a comprehensive and consistent volcanic SO2 time series spanning over 40 years.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 20-10-2022
Abstract: Abstract. Uncertainty-bounded satellite retrievals of volcanic ash cloud properties such as ash cloud-top height, effective radius, optical depth and mass loading are needed for the robust quantitative assessment required to warn aviation of potential hazards. Moreover, there is an imperative to improve quantitative ash cloud estimation due to the planned move towards quantitative ash concentration forecasts by the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers. Here we apply the Optimal Retrieval of Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) algorithm to Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) measurements of the ash clouds produced by the June 2019 Raikoke (Russia) eruption. The ORAC algorithm uses an optimal estimation technique to consolidate a priori information, satellite measurements and associated uncertainties into uncertainty-bounded estimates of the desired state variables. Using ORAC, we demonstrate several improvements in thermal infrared volcanic ash retrievals applied to broadband imagers. These include an improved treatment of measurement noise, accounting for multi-layer cloud scenarios, distinguishing between heights in the troposphere and stratosphere, and the retrieval of a wider range of effective radii sizes than existing techniques by exploiting information from the 10.4 µm channel. Our results indicate that 0.73 ± 0.40 Tg of very fine ash (radius ≤ 15 µm) was injected into the atmosphere during the main eruptive period from 21 June 18:00 UTC to 22 June 10:00 UTC. The total mass of very fine ash decreased from 0.73 to 0.10 Tg over ∼ 48 h, with an e-folding time of 20 h. We estimate a distal fine ash mass fraction of 0.73 % ± 0.62 % based on the total mass of very fine ash retrieved and the ORAC-derived height–time series. Several distinct ash layers were revealed by the ORAC height retrievals. Generally, ash in the troposphere was composed of larger particles than ash present in the stratosphere. We also find that median ash cloud concentrations fall below peak ash concentration safety limits ( 4 mg m−3) 11–16 h after the eruption begins, if typical ash cloud geometric thicknesses are assumed. The ORAC height retrievals for the near-source plume showed good agreement with GOES-17 side-view height data (R=0.84 bias = −0.75 km) however, a larger negative bias was found when comparing ORAC height retrievals for distal ash clouds against Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarisation (CALIOP) measurements (R=0.67 bias = −2.67 km). The dataset generated here provides uncertainties at the pixel level for all retrieved variables and could potentially be used for dispersion model validation or be implemented in data assimilation schemes. Future work should focus on improving ash detection, improving height estimation in the stratosphere and exploring the added benefit of visible channels for retrieving effective radius and optical depth in opaque regions of nascent ash plumes.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 17-08-2012
Abstract: Abstract. This work provides a comparison of satellite retrievals of Saharan desert dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) during a strong dust event through March 2006. In this event, a large dust plume was transported over desert, vegetated, and ocean surfaces. The aim is to identify the differences between current datasets. The satellite instruments considered are AATSR, AIRS, MERIS, MISR, MODIS, OMI, POLDER, and SEVIRI. An interesting aspect is that the different algorithms make use of different instrument characteristics to obtain retrievals over bright surfaces. These include multi-angle approaches (MISR, AATSR), polarisation measurements (POLDER), single-view approaches using solar wavelengths (OMI, MODIS), and the thermal infrared spectral region (SEVIRI, AIRS). Differences between instruments, together with the comparison of different retrieval algorithms applied to measurements from the same instrument, provide a unique insight into the performance and characteristics of the various techniques employed. As well as the intercomparison between different satellite products, the AODs have also been compared to co-located AERONET data. Despite the fact that the agreement between satellite and AERONET AODs is reasonably good for all of the datasets, there are significant differences between them when compared to each other, especially over land. These differences are partially due to differences in the algorithms, such as assumptions about aerosol model and surface properties. However, in this comparison of spatially and temporally averaged data, it is important to note that differences in s ling, related to the actual footprint of each instrument on the heterogeneous aerosol field, cloud identification and the quality control flags of each dataset can be an important issue.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-04-2011
Abstract: Abstract. The Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) provide a long time-series of measurements suitable for the retrieval of cloud properties. This work evaluates the freely-available Global Retrieval of ATSR Cloud Parameters and Evaluation (GRAPE) dataset (version 3) created from the ATSR-2 (1995–2003) and Advanced ATSR (AATSR 2002 onwards) records. Users are recommended to consider only retrievals flagged as high-quality, where there is a good consistency between the measurements and the retrieved state (corresponding to about 60% of converged retrievals over sea, and more than 80% over land). Cloud properties are found to be generally free of any significant spurious trends relating to satellite zenith angle. Estimates of the random error on retrieved cloud properties are suggested to be generally appropriate for optically-thick clouds, and up to a factor of two too small for optically-thin cases. The correspondence between ATSR-2 and AATSR cloud properties is high, but a relative calibration difference between the sensors of order 5–10% at 660 nm and 870 nm limits the potential of the current version of the dataset for trend analysis. As ATSR-2 is thought to have the better absolute calibration, the discussion focusses on this portion of the record. Cloud-top heights from GRAPE compare well to ground-based data at four sites, particularly for shallow clouds. Clouds forming in boundary-layer inversions are typically around 1 km too high in GRAPE due to poorly-resolved inversions in the modelled temperature profiles used. Global cloud fields are compared to satellite products derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) measurements, and a climatology of liquid water content derived from satellite microwave radiometers. In all cases the main reasons for differences are linked to differing sensitivity to, and treatment of, multi-layer cloud systems. The correlation coefficient between GRAPE and the two MODIS products considered is generally high (greater than 0.7 for most cloud properties), except for liquid and ice cloud effective radius, which also show biases between the datasets. For liquid clouds, part of the difference is linked to choice of wavelengths used in the retrieval. Total cloud cover is slightly lower in GRAPE (0.64) than the CALIOP dataset (0.66). GRAPE underestimates liquid cloud water path relative to microwave radiometers by up to 100 g m−2 near the Equator and overestimates by around 50 g m−2 in the storm tracks. Finally, potential future improvements to the algorithm are outlined.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-11-2017
DOI: 10.5194/ACP-17-13151-2017
Abstract: Abstract. Increased concentrations of aerosol can enhance the albedo of warm low-level cloud. Accurately quantifying this relationship from space is challenging due in part to contamination of aerosol statistics near clouds. Aerosol retrievals near clouds can be influenced by stray cloud particles in areas assumed to be cloud-free, particle swelling by humidification, shadows and enhanced scattering into the aerosol field from (3-D radiative transfer) clouds. To screen for this contamination we have developed a new cloud–aerosol pairing algorithm (CAPA) to link cloud observations to the nearest aerosol retrieval within the satellite image. The distance between each aerosol retrieval and nearest cloud is also computed in CAPA. Results from two independent satellite imagers, the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), show a marked reduction in the strength of the intrinsic aerosol indirect radiative forcing when selecting aerosol pairs that are located farther away from the clouds (−0.28±0.26 W m−2) compared to those including pairs that are within 15 km of the nearest cloud (−0.49±0.18 W m−2). The larger aerosol optical depths in closer proximity to cloud artificially enhance the relationship between aerosol-loading, cloud albedo, and cloud fraction. These results suggest that previous satellite-based radiative forcing estimates represented in key climate reports may be exaggerated due to the inclusion of retrieval artefacts in the aerosol located near clouds.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-06-2018
Abstract: Abstract. We present here the key features of the Community Cloud retrieval for CLimate (CC4CL) processing algorithm. We focus on the novel features of the framework: the optimal estimation approach in general, explicit uncertainty quantification through rigorous propagation of all known error sources into the final product, and the consistency of our long-term, multi-platform time series provided at various resolutions, from 0.5 to 0.02∘. By describing all key input data and processing steps, we aim to inform the user about important features of this new retrieval framework and its potential applicability to climate studies. We provide an overview of the retrieved and derived output variables. These are analysed for four, partly very challenging, scenes collocated with CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) observations in the high latitudes and over the Gulf of Guinea–West Africa. The results show that CC4CL provides very realistic estimates of cloud top height and cover for optically thick clouds but, where optically thin clouds overlap, returns a height between the two layers. CC4CL is a unique, coherent, multi-instrument cloud property retrieval framework applicable to passive sensor data of several EO missions. Through its flexibility, CC4CL offers the opportunity for combining a variety of historic and current EO missions into one dataset, which, compared to single sensor retrievals, is improved in terms of accuracy and temporal s ling.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 13-09-2007
DOI: 10.1002/QJ.126
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-06-2018
Abstract: Abstract. The Community Cloud retrieval for Climate (CC4CL) is a cloud property retrieval system for satellite-based multispectral imagers and is an important component of the Cloud Climate Change Initiative (Cloud_cci) project. In this paper we discuss the optimal estimation retrieval of cloud optical thickness, effective radius and cloud top pressure based on the Optimal Retrieval of Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) algorithm. Key to this method is the forward model, which includes the clear-sky model, the liquid water and ice cloud models, the surface model including a bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF), and the "fast" radiative transfer solution (which includes a multiple scattering treatment). All of these components and their assumptions and limitations will be discussed in detail. The forward model provides the accuracy appropriate for our retrieval method. The errors are comparable to the instrument noise for cloud optical thicknesses greater than 10. At optical thicknesses less than 10 modeling errors become more significant. The retrieval method is then presented describing optimal estimation in general, the nonlinear inversion method employed, measurement and a priori inputs, the propagation of input uncertainties and the calculation of subsidiary quantities that are derived from the retrieval results. An evaluation of the retrieval was performed using measurements simulated with noise levels appropriate for the MODIS instrument. Results show errors less than 10 % for cloud optical thicknesses greater than 10. Results for clouds of optical thicknesses less than 10 have errors up to 20 %.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 23-09-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023638
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 2008
DOI: 10.1029/2007GL031394
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 15-03-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2010JD014483
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 26-05-2010
Abstract: Abstract. The Global Retrieval of ATSR Cloud Parameters and Evaluation (GRAPE) project has produced a global data-set of cloud and aerosol properties from the Along Track Scanning Radiometer-2 (ATSR-2) instrument, covering the time period 1995–2001. This paper presents the validation of aerosol optical depths (AODs) over the ocean from this product against AERONET sun-photometer measurements, as well as a comparison to the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) optical depth product produced by the Global Aerosol Climatology Project (GACP). The GRAPE AOD over ocean is found to be in good agreement with AERONET measurements, with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.79 and a best-fit slope of 1.0±0.1, but with a positive bias of 0.08±0.04. Although the GRAPE and GACP datasets show reasonable agreement, there are significant differences. These discrepancies are explored, and suggest that the downward trend in AOD reported by GACP may arise from changes in s ling due to the orbital drift of the AVHRR instruments.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-08-2012
Abstract: Abstract. The infrared limb spectra of the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on board the Envisat satellite include detailed information on tropospheric clouds and polar stratospheric clouds (PSC). However, no consolidated cloud product is available for the scientific community. Here we describe a fast prototype processor for cloud parameter retrieval from MIPAS (MIPclouds). Retrieval of parameters such as cloud top height, temperature, and extinction are implemented, as well as retrieval of microphysical parameters, e.g. effective radius and the integrated quantities over the limb path (surface area density and volume density). MIPclouds classifies clouds as either liquid or ice cloud in the upper troposphere and polar stratospheric clouds types in the stratosphere based on statistical combinations of colour ratios and brightness temperature differences. Comparison of limb measurements of clouds with model results or cloud parameters from nadir looking instruments is often difficult due to different observation geometries. We therefore introduce a new concept, the limb-integrated surface area density path (ADP). By means of validation and radiative transfer calculations of realistic 2-D cloud fields as input for a blind test retrieval (BTR), we demonstrate that ADP is an extremely valuable parameter for future comparison with model data of ice water content, when applying limb integration (ray tracing) through the model fields. In addition, ADP is used for a more objective definition of detection thresholds of the applied detection methods. Based on BTR, a detection threshold of ADP = 107 μm2 cm−2 and an ice water content of 10−5 g m−3 is estimated, depending on the horizontal and vertical extent of the cloud. Intensive validation of the cloud detection methods shows that the limb-sounding MIPAS instrument has a sensitivity in detecting stratospheric and tropospheric clouds similar to that of space- and ground-based lidars, with a tendency for higher cloud top heights and consequently higher sensitivity for some of the MIPAS detection methods. For the high cloud amount (HCA, pressure levels below 440 hPa) on global scales the sensitivity of MIPAS is significantly greater than that of passive nadir viewers. This means that the high cloud fraction will be underestimated in the ISCCP dataset compared to the amount of high clouds deduced by MIPAS. Good correspondence in seasonal variability and geographical distribution of cloud occurrence and zonal means of cloud top height is found in a detailed comparison with a climatology for subvisible cirrus clouds from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) limb sounder. Overall, validation with various sensors shows the need to consider differences in sensitivity, and especially the viewing geometries and field-of-view size, to make the datasets comparable (e.g. applying integration along the limb path through nadir cloud fields). The simulation of the limb path integration will be an important issue for comparisons with cloud-resolving global circulation or chemical transport models.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2012
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 15-02-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018JD028679
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 05-07-2022
Abstract: Abstract. Due to the remote location of many volcanoes, there is substantial uncertainty about the timing, amount and vertical distribution of volcanic ash released when they erupt. One approach to determine these properties is to combine prior estimates with satellite retrievals and simulations from atmospheric dispersion models to create posterior emission estimates, constrained by both the observations and the prior estimates, using a technique known as source inversion. However, the results are dependent not only on the accuracy of the prior assumptions, the atmospheric dispersion model and the observations used, but also on the accuracy of the meteorological data used in the dispersion simulations. In this study, we advance the source inversion approach by using an ensemble of meteorological data from the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System to represent the uncertainty in the meteorological data and apply it to the 2019 eruption of Raikoke. Retrievals from the Himawari-8 satellite are combined with NAME dispersion model simulations to create posterior emission estimates. The use of ensemble meteorology provides confidence in the posterior emission estimates and associated dispersion simulations that are used to produce ash forecasts. Prior mean estimates of fine volcanic ash emissions for the Raikoke eruption based on plume height observations are more than 15 times higher than any of the mean posterior ensemble estimates. In addition, the posterior estimates have a different vertical distribution, with 27 %–44 % of ash being emitted into the stratosphere compared to 8 % in the mean prior estimate. This has consequences for the long-range transport of ash, as deposition to the surface from this region of the atmosphere happens over long timescales. The posterior ensemble spread represents uncertainty in the inversion estimate of the ash emissions. For the first 48 h following the eruption, the prior ash column loadings lie outside an estimate of the error associated with a set of independent satellite retrievals, whereas the posterior ensemble column loadings do not. Applying a risk-based methodology to an ensemble of dispersion simulations using the posterior emissions shows that the area deemed to be of the highest risk to aviation, based on the fraction of ensemble members exceeding predefined ash concentration thresholds, is reduced by 49 %. This is compared to estimates using an ensemble of dispersion simulations using the prior emissions with ensemble meteorology. If source inversion had been used following the eruption of Raikoke, it would have had the potential to significantly reduce disruptions to aviation operations. The posterior inversion emission estimates are also sensitive to uncertainty in other eruption source parameters and internal dispersion model parameters. Extending the ensemble inversion methodology to account for uncertainty in these parameters would give a more complete picture of the emission uncertainty, further increasing confidence in these estimates.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-08-2012
Abstract: Abstract. Clouds play an important role in balancing the Earth's radiation budget. Hence, it is vital that cloud climatologies are produced that quantify cloud macro and micro physical parameters and the associated uncertainty. In this paper, we present an algorithm ORAC (Oxford-RAL retrieval of Aerosol and Cloud) which is based on fitting a physically consistent cloud model to satellite observations simultaneously from the visible to the mid-infrared, thereby ensuring that the resulting cloud properties provide both a good representation of the short-wave and long-wave radiative effects of the observed cloud. The advantages of the optimal estimation method are that it enables rigorous error propagation and the inclusion of all measurements and any a priori information and associated errors in a rigorous mathematical framework. The algorithm provides a measure of the consistency between retrieval representation of cloud and satellite radiances. The cloud parameters retrieved are the cloud top pressure, cloud optical depth, cloud effective radius, cloud fraction and cloud phase. The algorithm can be applied to most visible/infrared satellite instruments. In this paper, we demonstrate the applicability to the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers ATSR-2 and AATSR. Ex les of applying the algorithm to ATSR-2 flight data are presented and the sensitivity of the retrievals assessed, in particular the algorithm is evaluated for a number of simulated single-layer and multi-layer conditions. The algorithm was found to perform well for single-layer cloud except when the cloud was very thin i.e., less than 1 optical depths. For the multi-layer cloud, the algorithm was robust except when the upper ice cloud layer is less than five optical depths. In these cases the retrieved cloud top pressure and cloud effective radius become a weighted average of the 2 layers. The sum of optical depth of multi-layer cloud is retrieved well until the cloud becomes thick, greater than 50 optical depths, where the cloud begins to saturate. The cost proved a good indicator of multi-layer scenarios. Both the retrieval cost and the error need to be considered together in order to evaluate the quality of the retrieval. This algorithm in the configuration described here has been applied to both ATSR-2 and AATSR visible and infrared measurements in the context of the GRAPE (Global Retrieval and cloud Product Evaluation) project to produce a 14 yr consistent record for climate research.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Roy Grainger.