Publication
Methodological Remarks Regarding Optimal Stopping Tasks and the Implications for Sampling Biases
Publisher:
Center for Open Science
Date:
14-09-2021
DOI:
10.31234/OSF.IO/5J74D
Abstract: This paper investigates a type of optimal stopping problem where options are presented in sequence and, once an option has been rejected, it is impossible to go back to it. With previous research finding mixed results of unders ling and overs ling biases on these kinds of optimal stopping tasks, the question remaining is what causes people to s le too much or too little compared to models of optimality? In two pilot studies and a main study, we explored task features that could lead to over- versus unders ling on number-based tasks. We found that, regardless of task features, there were no significant differences in human s ling rate across conditions. Nevertheless, we observed differences in s ling biases across conditions due to varying s ling rates of the optimal model. Our optimal model, like most models used for this type of optimal stopping problem, requires that researchers specify the mean and variance of a theoretical distribution, from which the options are generated. We show that different ways of specifying this generating distribution can lead to different model s ling rates, and consequently, differences in s ling biases. This highlights that a correct specification of the generating distribution is critical when investigating s ling biases on optimal stopping tasks.