ORCID Profile
0000-0002-3784-1124
Current Organisations
Scotland's Climate Change Centre of Expertise (ClimateXChange)
,
University of Aberdeen
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Publisher: Wiley
Date: 15-05-2020
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.15120
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 02-11-2018
Abstract: Will the rain wash away our soil organic carbon under future climate change?
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-01-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2910
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-02-2020
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.15001
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-11-2021
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.15441
Abstract: Simulation models represent soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in global carbon (C) cycle scenarios to support climate‐change studies. It is imperative to increase confidence in long‐term predictions of SOC dynamics by reducing the uncertainty in model estimates. We evaluated SOC simulated from an ensemble of 26 process‐based C models by comparing simulations to experimental data from seven long‐term bare‐fallow (vegetation‐free) plots at six sites: Denmark (two sites), France, Russia, Sweden and the United Kingdom. The decay of SOC in these plots has been monitored for decades since the last inputs of plant material, providing the opportunity to test decomposition without the continuous input of new organic material. The models were run independently over multi‐year simulation periods (from 28 to 80 years) in a blind test with no calibration (Bln) and with the following three calibration scenarios, each providing different levels of information and/or allowing different levels of model fitting: (a) calibrating decomposition parameters separately at each experimental site (Spe) (b) using a generic, knowledge‐based, parameterization applicable in the Central European region (Gen) and (c) using a combination of both (a) and (b) strategies (Mix). We addressed uncertainties from different modelling approaches with or without spin‐up initialization of SOC. Changes in the multi‐model median (MMM) of SOC were used as descriptors of the ensemble performance. On average across sites, Gen proved adequate in describing changes in SOC, with MMM equal to average SOC (and standard deviation) of 39.2 (±15.5) Mg C/ha compared to the observed mean of 36.0 (±19.7) Mg C/ha (last observed year), indicating sufficiently reliable SOC estimates. Moving to Mix (37.5 ± 16.7 Mg C/ha) and Spe (36.8 ± 19.8 Mg C/ha) provided only marginal gains in accuracy, but modellers would need to apply more knowledge and a greater calibration effort than in Gen, thereby limiting the wider applicability of models.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 26-01-2023
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-02-2020
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-12-2015
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.13068
Abstract: Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land-use change, land management and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges and highlight actions and policies to minimize adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 31-01-2013
DOI: 10.1111/EJSS.12014
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 26-11-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020GB006561
Abstract: A potential strategy for mitigating nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from permanent grasslands is the partial substitution of fertilizer nitrogen (N fert ) with symbiotically fixed nitrogen (N symb ) from legumes. The input of N symb reduces the energy costs of producing fertilizer and provides a supply of nitrogen (N) for plants that is more synchronous to plant demand than occasional fertilizer applications. Legumes have been promoted as a potential N 2 O mitigation strategy for grasslands, but evidence to support their efficacy is limited, partly due to the difficulty in conducting experiments across the large range of potential combinations of legume proportions and fertilizer N inputs. These experimental constraints can be overcome by biogeochemical models that can vary legume‐fertilizer combinations and subsequently aid the design of targeted experiments. Using two variants each of two biogeochemical models (APSIM and DayCent), we tested the N 2 O mitigation potential and productivity of full factorial combinations of legume proportions and fertilizer rates for five temperate grassland sites across the globe. Both models showed that replacing fertilizer with legumes reduced N 2 O emissions without reducing productivity across a broad range of legume‐fertilizer combinations. Although the models were consistent with the relative changes of N 2 O emissions compared to the baseline scenario (200 kg N ha −1 yr −1 no legumes), they predicted different levels of absolute N 2 O emissions and thus also of absolute N 2 O emission reductions both were greater in DayCent than in APSIM. We recommend confirming these results with experimental studies assessing the effect of clover proportions in the range 30–50% and ≤150 kg N ha −1 yr −1 input as these were identified as best‐bet climate smart agricultural practices.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 15-10-2010
DOI: 10.1038/NRMICRO2439
Abstract: Microbial processes have a central role in the global fluxes of the key biogenic greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) and are likely to respond rapidly to climate change. Whether changes in microbial processes lead to a net positive or negative feedback for greenhouse gas emissions is unclear. To improve the prediction of climate models, it is important to understand the mechanisms by which microorganisms regulate terrestrial greenhouse gas flux. This involves consideration of the complex interactions that occur between microorganisms and other biotic and abiotic factors. The potential to mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions through managing terrestrial microbial processes is a tantalizing prospect for the future.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-12-2015
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2870
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 13-03-2023
DOI: 10.1111/BRV.12949
Abstract: Biochar amendment is one of the most promising agricultural approaches to tackle climate change by enhancing soil carbon (C) sequestration. Microbial‐mediated decomposition processes are fundamental for the fate and persistence of sequestered C in soil, but the underlying mechanisms are uncertain. Here, we synthesise 923 observations regarding the effects of biochar addition (over periods ranging from several weeks to several years) on soil C‐degrading enzyme activities from 130 articles across five continents worldwide. Our results showed that biochar addition increased soil ligninase activity targeting complex phenolic macromolecules by 7.1%, but suppressed cellulase activity degrading simpler polysaccharides by 8.3%. These shifts in enzyme activities explained the most variation of changes in soil C sequestration across a wide range of climatic, edaphic and experimental conditions, with biochar‐induced shift in ligninase:cellulase ratio correlating negatively with soil C sequestration. Specifically, short‐term ( year) biochar addition significantly reduced cellulase activity by 4.6% and enhanced soil organic C sequestration by 87.5%, whereas no significant responses were observed for ligninase activity and ligninase:cellulase ratio. However, long‐term (≥1 year) biochar addition significantly enhanced ligninase activity by 5.2% and ligninase:cellulase ratio by 36.1%, leading to a smaller increase in soil organic C sequestration (25.1%). These results suggest that shifts in enzyme activities increased ligninase:cellulase ratio with time after biochar addition, limiting long‐term soil C sequestration with biochar addition. Our work provides novel evidence to explain the diminished soil C sequestration with long‐term biochar addition and suggests that earlier studies may have overestimated soil C sequestration with biochar addition by failing to consider the physiological acclimation of soil microorganisms over time.
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 05-07-2013
Abstract: Clearer understanding is needed of the premises underlying SI and how it relates to food-system priorities.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 21-09-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2392
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-01-2008
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2014
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 25-11-2005
Abstract: Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for ex le, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for ex le, “surplus land” for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for ex le, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2018
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2007
Publisher: American Chemical Society (ACS)
Date: 02-09-2022
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 05-10-2023
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 04-03-2014
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 22-07-2022
DOI: 10.3389/FSUFS.2022.868189
Abstract: Climate change will put millions more people in Africa at risk of food and nutrition insecurity by 2050. Integrated assessments of food systems tend to be limited by either heavy reliance on models or a lack of information on food and nutrition security. Accordingly, we developed a novel integrated assessment framework that combines models with in-country knowledge and expert academic judgement to explore climate-smart and nutrition-secure food system futures: the integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED). Here, we describe iFEED and present its application in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. The iFEED process begins with a participatory scenario workshop. In-country stakeholders identify two key drivers of food system change, and from these, four possible scenarios are defined. These scenarios provide the underlying narratives of change to the food system. Integrated modeling of climate change, food production and greenhouse gas emissions is then used to explore nutrition security and climate-smart agriculture outcomes for each scenario. Model results are summarized using calibrated statements—quantitative statements of model outcomes and our confidence in them. These include statements about the way in which different trade futures interact with climate change and domestic production in determining nutrition security at the national level. To understand what the model results mean for food systems, the calibrated statements are expanded upon using implication statements. The implications rely on input from a wide range of academic experts—including agro-ecologists and social scientists. A series of workshops are used to incorporate in-country expertise, identifying any gaps in knowledge and summarizing information for country-level recommendations. iFEED stakeholder ch ions help throughout by providing in-country expertise and disseminating knowledge to policy makers. iFEED has numerous novel aspects that can be used and developed in future work. It provides information to support evidence-based decisions for a climate-smart and nutrition-secure future. In particular, iFEED: (i) employs novel and inclusive reporting of model results and associated in-country food system activities, with comprehensive reporting of uncertainty (ii) includes climate change mitigation alongside adaptation measures and (iii) quantifies future population-level nutrition security, as opposed to simply assessing future production and food security implications.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2018
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 09-2016
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2011
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2022
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 17-03-2020
DOI: 10.3390/SU12062323
Abstract: Food systems contribute to up to 37% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and emissions are increasing. Since the emissions vary greatly between different foods, citizens’ choices can make a big difference to climate change. Public engagement events are opportunities to communicate these complex issues: to raise awareness about the impact of citizens’ own food choices on climate change and to generate support for changes in all food system activities, the food environment and food policy. This article summarises findings from our ‘Take a Bite Out of Climate Change’ stand at two UK outreach activities during July 2019. We collected engagement information in three main ways: (1) in iduals were invited to complete a qualitative evaluation questionnaire comprising of four questions that gauged the person’s interests, perceptions of food choices and attitudes towards climate change (2) an online multiple-choice questionnaire asking about eating habits and awareness/concerns and (3) a token drop voting activity where visitors answered the question: ‘Do you consider greenhouse gases when choosing food?’ Our results indicate whether or not people learnt about the environmental impacts of food (effectiveness), how likely they are to move towards a more climate-friendly diet (behavioural change), and how to gather information more effectively at this type of event.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2021
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 20-05-2022
Abstract: Forest restoration is being scaled up globally to deliver critical ecosystem services and bio ersity benefits however, there is a lack of rigorous comparison of cobenefit delivery across different restoration approaches. Through global synthesis, we used 25,950 matched data pairs from 264 studies in 53 countries to assess how delivery of climate, soil, water, and wood production services, in addition to bio ersity, compares across a range of tree plantations and native forests. Benefits of aboveground carbon storage, water provisioning, and especially soil erosion control and bio ersity are better delivered by native forests, with compositionally simpler, younger plantations in drier regions performing particularly poorly. However, plantations exhibit an advantage in wood production. These results underscore important trade-offs among environmental and production goals that policy-makers must navigate in meeting forest restoration commitments.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2020
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 12-10-2023
DOI: 10.3390/SU152014783
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2016
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-08-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-022-32464-0
Abstract: Diversified cropping systems, especially those including legumes, have been proposed to enhance food production with reduced inputs and environmental impacts. However, the impact of legume pre-crops on main crop yield and its drivers has never been systematically investigated in a global context. Here, we synthesize 11,768 yield observations from 462 field experiments comparing legume-based and non-legume cropping systems and show that legumes enhanced main crop yield by 20%. These yield advantages decline with increasing N fertilizer rates and crop ersity of the main cropping system. The yield benefits are consistent among main crops (e.g., rice, wheat, maize) and evident across pedo-climatic regions. Moreover, greater yield advantages (32% vs. 7%) are observed in low- vs. high-yielding environments, suggesting legumes increase crop production with low inputs (e.g., in Africa or organic agriculture). In conclusion, our study suggests that legume-based rotations offer a critical pathway for enhancing global crop production, especially when integrated into low-input and low- ersity agricultural systems.
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 03-12-2013
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 27-08-2020
DOI: 10.1002/JEQ2.20119
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2017
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2017.03.208
Abstract: Biogeochemical simulation models are important tools for describing and quantifying the contribution of agricultural systems to C sequestration and GHG source/sink status. The abundance of simulation tools developed over recent decades, however, creates a difficulty because predictions from different models show large variability. Discrepancies between the conclusions of different modelling studies are often ascribed to differences in the physical and biogeochemical processes incorporated in equations of C and N cycles and their interactions. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modelling agricultural (crop and grassland) systems. In order to carry out this study, we selected the range of biogeochemical models used by the CN-MIP consortium of FACCE-JPI (www.faccejpi.com): APSIM, CERES-EGC, DayCent, DNDC, DSSAT, EPIC, PaSim, RothC and STICS. In our analysis, these models were assessed for the quality and comprehensiveness of underlying processes related to pedo-climatic conditions and management practices, but also with respect to time and space of application, and for their accuracy in multiple contexts. Overall, it emerged that there is a possible impact of ill-defined pedo-climatic conditions in the unsatisfactory performance of the models (46.2%), followed by limitations in the algorithms simulating the effects of management practices (33.1%). The multiplicity of scales in both time and space is a fundamental feature, which explains the remaining weaknesses (i.e. 20.7%). Innovative aspects have been identified for future development of C and N models. They include the explicit representation of soil microbial biomass to drive soil organic matter turnover, the effect of N shortage on SOM decomposition, the improvements related to the production and consumption of gases and an adequate simulations of gas transport in soil. On these bases, the assessment of trends and gaps in the modelling approaches currently employed to represent biogeochemical cycles in crop and grassland systems appears an essential step for future research.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2013
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2012.08.028
Abstract: Saline soils cover 3.1% (397 million hectare) of the total land area of the world. The stock of soil organic carbon (SOC) reflects the balance between carbon (C) inputs from plants, and losses through decomposition, leaching and erosion. Soil salinity decreases plant productivity and hence C inputs to the soil, but also microbial activity and therefore SOC decomposition rates. Using a modified Rothamsted Carbon model (RothC) with a newly introduced salinity decomposition rate modifier and a plant input modifier we estimate that, historically, world soils that are currently saline have lost an average of 3.47 tSOC ha(-1) since they became saline. With the extent of saline soils predicted to increase in the future, our modelling suggests that world soils may lose 6.8 Pg SOC due to salinity by the year 2100. Our findings suggest that current models overestimate future global SOC stocks and underestimate net CO2 emissions from the soil-plant system by not taking salinity effects into account. From the perspective of enhancing soil C stocks, however, given the lower SOC decomposition rate in saline soils, salt tolerant plants could be used to sequester C in salt-affected areas.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2018
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2018.06.020
Abstract: Simulation models quantify the impacts on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in grassland systems caused by changes in management practices. To support agricultural policies, it is however important to contrast the responses of alternative models, which can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and in their response to management. We applied eight biogeochemical models at five grassland sites (in France, New Zealand, Switzerland, United Kingdom and United States) to compare the sensitivity of modelled C and N fluxes to changes in the density of grazing animals (from 100% to 50% of the original livestock densities), also in combination with decreasing N fertilization levels (reduced to zero from the initial levels). Simulated multi-model median values indicated that input reduction would lead to an increase in the C sink strength (negative net ecosystem C exchange) in intensive grazing systems: -64 ± 74 g C m
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2017
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 05-07-2018
DOI: 10.3390/LAND7030082
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2016
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 23-01-2020
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.14978
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-11-2018
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.13965
Abstract: Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multi-species agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multi-model ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2016
Publisher: American Chemical Society (ACS)
Date: 11-01-2012
DOI: 10.1021/ES2027345
Abstract: Soil organic carbon (SOC) models are used to predict changes in SOC stocks and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions from soils, and have been successfully validated for non-saline soils. However, SOC models have not been developed to simulate SOC turnover in saline soils. Due to the large extent of salt-affected areas in the world, it is important to correctly predict SOC dynamics in salt-affected soils. To close this knowledge gap, we modified the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) to simulate SOC turnover in salt-affected soils, using data from non-salt-affected and salt-affected soils in two agricultural regions in India (120 soils) and in Australia (160 soils). Recently we developed a decomposition rate modifier based on an incubation study of a subset of these soils. In the present study, we introduce a new method to estimate the past losses of SOC due to salinity and show how salinity affects future SOC stocks on a regional scale. Because salinity decreases decomposition rates, simulations using the decomposition rate modifier for salinity suggest an accumulation of SOC. However, if the plant inputs are also adjusted to reflect reduced plant growth under saline conditions, the simulations show a significant loss of soil carbon in the past due to salinization, with a higher average loss of SOC in Australian soils (55 t C ha(-1)) than in Indian soils (31 t C ha(-1)). There was a significant negative correlation (p < 0.05) between SOC loss and osmotic potential. Simulations of future SOC stocks with the decomposition rate modifier and the plant input modifier indicate a greater decrease in SOC in saline than in non-saline soils under future climate. The simulations of past losses of SOC due to salinity were repeated using either measured charcoal-C or the inert organic matter predicted by the Falloon et al. equation to determine how much deviation from the Falloon et al. equation affects the amount of plant inputs generated by the model for the soils used in this study. Both sets of results suggest that saline soils have lost carbon and will continue to lose carbon under future climate. This demonstrates the importance of both reduced decomposition and reduced plant input in simulations of future changes in SOC stocks in saline soils.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2018
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2018.06.268
Abstract: Agricultural plants, covering large parts of the global land surface and important for the livelihoods of people worldwide, fix carbon dioxide seasonally via photosynthesis. The carbon allocation of crops, however, remains relatively understudied compared to, for ex le, forests. For comprehensive consistent resource assessments or climate change impact studies large-scale reliable vegetation information is needed. Here, we demonstrate how robust data on carbon uptake in croplands can be obtained by combining multiple sources to enhance the reliability of estimates. Using yield statistics, a remote-sensing based productivity algorithm and climate-sensitive potential productivity, we mapped the potential to increase crop productivity and compared consistent carbon uptake information of agricultural land with forests. The productivity gap in Europe is higher in Eastern and Southern than in Central-Western countries. At continental scale, European agriculture shows a greater carbon uptake in harvestable compartments than forests (agriculture 1.96 vs. forests 1.76 t C ha
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 27-02-2018
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-05-2015
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.12916
Publisher: American Chemical Society (ACS)
Date: 30-06-2011
DOI: 10.1021/ES200515D
Abstract: Soil organic carbon (SOC) models such as the Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) have been used to estimate SOC dynamics in soils over different time scales but, until recently, their ability to accurately predict SOC stocks/carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions from salt-affected soils has not been assessed. Given the large extent of salt-affected soils (19% of the 20.8 billion ha of arable land on Earth), this may lead to miss-estimation of CO(2) release. Using soils from two salt-affected regions (one in Punjab, India and one in South Australia), an incubation study was carried out measuring CO(2) release over 120 days. The soils varied both in salinity (measured as electrical conductivity (EC) and calculated as osmotic potential using EC and water content) and sodicity (measured as sodium adsorption ratio, SAR). For soils from both regions, the osmotic potential had a significant positive relationship with CO(2)-C release, but no significant relationship was found between SAR and CO(2)-C release. The monthly cumulative CO(2)-C was simulated using RothC. RothC was modified to take into account reductions in plant inputs due to salinity. A subset of non-salt-affected soils was used to derive an equation for a "lab-effect" modifier to account for changes in decomposition under lab conditions and this modifier was significantly related with pH. Using a subset of salt-affected soils, a decomposition rate modifier (as a function of osmotic potential) was developed to match measured and modelled CO(2)-C release after correcting for the lab effect. Using this decomposition rate modifier, we found an agreement (R(2) = 0.92) between modelled and independently measured data for a set of soils from the incubation experiment. RothC, modified by including reduced plant inputs due to salinity and the salinity decomposition rate modifier, was used to predict SOC stocks of soils in a field in South Australia. The predictions clearly showed that SOC stocks are reduced in saline soils. Therefore both the decomposition rate modifier and plant input modifier should be taken into account when accounting for SOC turnover in saline soils. Since modeling has previously not accounted for the impact of salinity, our results suggest that previous predictions may have overestimated SOC stocks.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2011
Publisher: Soil and Water Conservation Society
Date: 2018
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 23-03-2016
DOI: 10.1111/GCBB.12338
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-09-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2019
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 11-2016
Publisher: Routledge
Date: 03-2013
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2019
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-10-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2020
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 27-02-2022
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.16109
Abstract: The two most urgent and interlinked environmental challenges humanity faces are climate change and bio ersity loss. We are entering a pivotal decade for both the international bio ersity and climate change agendas with the sharpening of ambitious strategies and targets by the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Within their respective Conventions, the bio ersity and climate interlinked challenges have largely been addressed separately. There is evidence that conservation actions that halt, slow or reverse bio ersity loss can simultaneously slow anthropogenic mediated climate change significantly. This review highlights conservation actions which have the largest potential for mitigation of climate change. We note that conservation actions have mainly synergistic benefits and few antagonistic trade‐offs with climate change mitigation. Specifically, we identify direct co‐benefits in 14 out of the 21 action targets of the draft post‐2020 global bio ersity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity, notwithstanding the many indirect links that can also support both bio ersity conservation and climate change mitigation. These relationships are context and scale‐dependent therefore, we showcase ex les of local bio ersity conservation actions that can be incentivized, guided and prioritized by global objectives and targets. The close interlinkages between bio ersity, climate change mitigation, other nature's contributions to people and good quality of life are seldom as integrated as they should be in management and policy. This review aims to re‐emphasize the vital relationships between bio ersity conservation actions and climate change mitigation in a timely manner, in support to major Conferences of Parties that are about to negotiate strategic frameworks and international goals for the decades to come.
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 08-05-2020
Publisher: PeerJ
Date: 21-07-2022
DOI: 10.7717/PEERJ.13740
Abstract: Improving the amount of organic carbon in soils is an attractive alternative to partially mitigate climate change. However, the amount of carbon that can be potentially added to the soil is still being debated, and there is a lack of information on additional storage potential on global cropland. Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration potential is region-specific and conditioned by climate and management but most global estimates use fixed accumulation rates or time frames. In this study, we model SOC storage potential as a function of climate, land cover and soil. We used 83,416 SOC observations from global databases and developed a quantile regression neural network to quantify the SOC variation within soils with similar environmental characteristics. This allows us to identify similar areas that present higher SOC with the difference representing an additional storage potential. We estimated that the topsoils (0–30 cm) of global croplands (1,410 million hectares) hold 83 Pg C. The additional SOC storage potential in the topsoil of global croplands ranges from 29 to 65 Pg C. These values only equate to three to seven years of global emissions, potentially offsetting 35% of agriculture’s 85 Pg historical carbon debt estimate due to conversion from natural ecosystems. As SOC store is temperature-dependent, this potential is likely to reduce by 14% by 2040 due to climate change in a “business as usual” scenario. The results of this article can provide a guide to areas of focus for SOC sequestration, and highlight the environmental cost of agriculture.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 13-05-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41597-019-0062-1
Abstract: A global, unified dataset on Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) changes under perennial crops has not existed till now. We present a global, harmonised database on SOC change resulting from perennial crop cultivation. It contains information about 1605 paired-comparison empirical values (some of which are aggregated data) from 180 different peer-reviewed studies, 709 sites, on 58 different perennial crop types, from 32 countries in temperate, tropical and boreal areas including species used for food, bioenergy and bio-products. The database also contains information on climate, soil characteristics, management and topography. This is the first such global compilation and will act as a baseline for SOC changes in perennial crops. It will be key to supporting global modelling of land use and carbon cycle feedbacks, and supporting agricultural policy development.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 19-05-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2018
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 04-08-2021
Abstract: This special issue provides an assessment of the contribution of soils to Nature's Contributions to People (NCP). Here, we combine this assessment and previously published relationships between NCP and delivery on the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to infer contributions of soils to the SDGs. We show that in addition to contributing positively to the delivery of all NCP, soils also have a role in underpinning all SDGs. While highlighting the great potential of soils to contribute to sustainable development, it is recognized that poorly managed, degraded or polluted soils may contribute negatively to both NCP and SDGs. The positive contribution, however, cannot be taken for granted, and soils must be managed carefully to keep them healthy and capable of playing this vital role. A priority for soil management must include: (i) for healthy soils in natural ecosystems, protect them from conversion and degradation (ii) for managed soils, manage in a way to protect and enhance soil bio ersity, health and sustainability and to prevent degradation and (iii) for degraded soils, restore to full soil health. We have enough knowledge now to move forward with the implementation of best management practices to maintain and improve soil health. This analysis shows that this is not just desirable, it is essential if we are to meet the SDG targets by 2030 and achieve sustainable development more broadly in the decades to come. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The role of soils in delivering Nature's Contributions to People’.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-03-2019
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 2020
DOI: 10.1029/2019JG005261
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 20-12-2013
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2081
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 26-01-2023
Abstract: Abstract. Quantification of land surface-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes and their trends and uncertainties is essential for monitoring progress of the EU27+UK bloc as it strives to meet ambitious targets determined by both international agreements and internal regulation. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of fossil sources (CO2 fossil) and natural sources and sinks over land (CO2 land) using bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) approaches for the European Union and United Kingdom (EU27+UK), updating earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021b). Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of approaches involved, this study aims to answer essential questions identified in the previous syntheses and understand the differences between datasets, particularly for poorly characterized fluxes from managed ecosystems. The work integrates updated emission inventory data, process-based model results, data-driven sectoral model results, and inverse modeling estimates, extending the previous period 1990–2018 to the year 2020 to the extent possible. BU and TD products are compared with European National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (NGHGIs) reported by Parties including the year 2019 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The uncertainties of the EU27+UK NGHGI were evaluated using the standard deviation reported by the EU Member States following the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and harmonized by gap-filling procedures. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, such as atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), originate from within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. By comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, key sources of differences between estimates arise primarily in activities. System boundaries and emission categories create differences in CO2 fossil datasets, while different land use definitions for reporting emissions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities result in differences for CO2 land. The latter has important consequences for atmospheric inversions, leading to inversions reporting stronger sinks in vegetation and soils than are reported by the NGHGI. For CO2 fossil emissions, after harmonizing estimates based on common activities and selecting the most recent year available for all datasets, the UNFCCC NGHGI for the EU27+UK accounts for 3392 ± 49 Tg CO2 yr-1 (926 ± 13 Tg C yr-1), while eight other BU sources report a mean value of 3340 [3238,3401] [25th,75th percentile] Tg CO2 yr-1 (948 [937,961] Tg C yr-1). The sole top-down inversion of fossil emissions currently available accounts for 3800 Tg CO2 yr-1 (1038 Tg C yr-1), a value close to that of the NGHGI, but for which uncertainty estimates are not yet available. For the net CO2 land fluxes, during the most recent five-year period including the NGHGI estimates, the NGHGI accounted for -91 ± 32 Tg C yr-1 while six other BU approaches reported a mean sink of -62 [-117,-49] Tg C yr-1 and a 15-member ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) reported -69 [-152,-5] Tg C yr-1. The five-year mean of three TD regional ensembles combined with one non-ensemble inversion of -73 Tg C yr-1 has a slightly smaller spread (0th–100th percentile of [-135,45] Tg C yr-1), and was calculated after removing land-atmosphere CO2 fluxes caused by lateral transport of carbon (crops, wood trade and inland waters) resulting in increased agreement with the the NGHGI and bottom-up approaches. Results at the sub-sector level (Forestland, Cropland, Grassland) show generally good agreement between the NGHGI and sub-sector-specific models, but results for a DGVM are mixed. Overall, for both CO2 fossil and net CO2 land fluxes, we find current independent approaches are consistent with the NGHGI at the scale of the EU27+UK. We conclude that CO2 emissions from fossil sources have decreased over the past 30 years in the EU27+UK, while large uncertainties on net uptake of CO2 by the land surface prevent trend identification. In addition, a gap on the order of 1000 Tg C yr-1 between CO2 fossil emissions and net CO2 uptake by the land exists regardless of the type of approach (NGHGI, TD, BU), falling well outside all available estimates of uncertainties. However, uncertainties in top-down approaches to estimate CO2 fossil emissions remain uncharacterized and are likely substantial. The data used to plot the figures are available at 0.5281/zenodo.7365863.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2015
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 28-11-2005
DOI: 10.1111/J.1365-2486.2005.01036.X
Abstract: Process‐based models can be classified into: (a) terrestrial biogeochemical models (TBMs), which simulate fluxes of carbon, water and nitrogen coupled within terrestrial ecosystems, and (b) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), which further couple these processes interactively with changes in slow ecosystem processes depending on resource competition, establishment, growth and mortality of different vegetation types. In this study, four models – RHESSys, GOTILWA+, LPJ‐GUESS and ORCHIDEE – representing both modelling approaches were compared and evaluated against benchmarks provided by eddy‐covariance measurements of carbon and water fluxes at 15 forest sites within the EUROFLUX project. Overall, model‐measurement agreement varied greatly among sites. Both modelling approaches have somewhat different strengths, but there was no model among those tested that universally performed well on the two variables evaluated. Small biases and errors suggest that ORCHIDEE and GOTILWA+ performed better in simulating carbon fluxes while LPJ‐GUESS and RHESSys did a better job in simulating water fluxes. In general, the models can be considered as useful tools for studies of climate change impacts on carbon and water cycling in forests. However, the various sources of variation among models simulations and between models simulations and observed data described in this study place some constraints on the results and to some extent reduce their reliability. For ex le, at most sites in the Mediterranean region all models generally performed poorly most likely because of problems in the representation of water stress effects on both carbon uptake by photosynthesis and carbon release by heterotrophic respiration ( R h ). The use of flux data as a means of assessing key processes in models of this type is an important approach to improving model performance. Our results show that the models have value but that further model development is necessary with regard to the representation of the some of the key ecosystem processes.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Pete Smith.