ORCID Profile
0000-0002-5451-116X
Current Organisation
Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research
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Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2003
DOI: 10.1071/FP02152
Abstract: To grow, plants need both carbon, which is fixed in photosynthesis, and inorganic nutrients, which are generally obtained from the soil. Much interest currently exists in trying to understand the uptake and storage of carbon by terrestrial ecosystems. This paper investigates to what extent carbon gain and storage are modified by soil nutrient availability. This issue is investigated in relation to both short-term carbon fluxes on the time scale of interannual variability and long-term ecosystem carbon stocks on time scales of several thousand years.We conclude from simulations with an ecosystem model (CenW) that interannual variations in carbon gain can be significantly affected by feedback effects through the nutrient cycle. This feedback effect operates principally through an imbalance between carbon and nutrient dynamics. In years that allow high carbon gain, nutrient supply typically does not match the increased carbon supply so that foliar nutrient concentrations are reduced. This lowers productivity below that which could be expected if foliar nutrient concentration remained the same. The importance of these feedback effects is shown to be greatest at intermediate levels of water availability and nutrient supply, and is relatively more important for net ecosystem carbon exchange than for net primary production.We conclude that the long-term build-up of carbon stocks in ecosystems is often controlled by the rate at which nutrients can be gained. This conclusion is based on data from published studies showing that the slow build-up of carbon matches the gain in nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur, and on our simulations of system carbon stocks in response to fertiliser addition.The paper concludes with a discussion of the importance and feasibility of including these processes into models at different scales, including the broad continental scale. For modelling net ecosystem exchange for Australia, it is regarded as feasible and desirable to use models that are constrained by these system-internal feedback effects. Such models have already been used for large-scale simulations in Australia and other countries.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 22-03-2022
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.16141
Abstract: In 2020, the Australian and New Zealand flux research and monitoring network, OzFlux, celebrated its 20 th anniversary by reflecting on the lessons learned through two decades of ecosystem studies on global change biology. OzFlux is a network not only for ecosystem researchers, but also for those ‘next users’ of the knowledge, information and data that such networks provide. Here, we focus on eight lessons across topics of climate change and variability, disturbance and resilience, drought and heat stress and synergies with remote sensing and modelling. In distilling the key lessons learned, we also identify where further research is needed to fill knowledge gaps and improve the utility and relevance of the outputs from OzFlux. Extreme climate variability across Australia and New Zealand (droughts and flooding rains) provides a natural laboratory for a global understanding of ecosystems in this time of accelerating climate change. As evidence of worsening global fire risk emerges, the natural ability of these ecosystems to recover from disturbances, such as fire and cyclones, provides lessons on adaptation and resilience to disturbance. Drought and heatwaves are common occurrences across large parts of the region and can tip an ecosystem's carbon budget from a net CO 2 sink to a net CO 2 source. Despite such responses to stress, ecosystems at OzFlux sites show their resilience to climate variability by rapidly pivoting back to a strong carbon sink upon the return of favourable conditions. Located in under‐represented areas, OzFlux data have the potential for reducing uncertainties in global remote sensing products, and these data provide several opportunities to develop new theories and improve our ecosystem models. The accumulated impacts of these lessons over the last 20 years highlights the value of long‐term flux observations for natural and managed systems. A future vision for OzFlux includes ongoing and newly developed synergies with ecophysiologists, ecologists, geologists, remote sensors and modellers.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-11-2021
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.15441
Abstract: Simulation models represent soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in global carbon (C) cycle scenarios to support climate‐change studies. It is imperative to increase confidence in long‐term predictions of SOC dynamics by reducing the uncertainty in model estimates. We evaluated SOC simulated from an ensemble of 26 process‐based C models by comparing simulations to experimental data from seven long‐term bare‐fallow (vegetation‐free) plots at six sites: Denmark (two sites), France, Russia, Sweden and the United Kingdom. The decay of SOC in these plots has been monitored for decades since the last inputs of plant material, providing the opportunity to test decomposition without the continuous input of new organic material. The models were run independently over multi‐year simulation periods (from 28 to 80 years) in a blind test with no calibration (Bln) and with the following three calibration scenarios, each providing different levels of information and/or allowing different levels of model fitting: (a) calibrating decomposition parameters separately at each experimental site (Spe) (b) using a generic, knowledge‐based, parameterization applicable in the Central European region (Gen) and (c) using a combination of both (a) and (b) strategies (Mix). We addressed uncertainties from different modelling approaches with or without spin‐up initialization of SOC. Changes in the multi‐model median (MMM) of SOC were used as descriptors of the ensemble performance. On average across sites, Gen proved adequate in describing changes in SOC, with MMM equal to average SOC (and standard deviation) of 39.2 (±15.5) Mg C/ha compared to the observed mean of 36.0 (±19.7) Mg C/ha (last observed year), indicating sufficiently reliable SOC estimates. Moving to Mix (37.5 ± 16.7 Mg C/ha) and Spe (36.8 ± 19.8 Mg C/ha) provided only marginal gains in accuracy, but modellers would need to apply more knowledge and a greater calibration effort than in Gen, thereby limiting the wider applicability of models.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 23-01-2020
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.14978
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-11-2018
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.13965
Abstract: Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multi-species agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multi-model ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-15006
Abstract: Accurate national carbon budget assessments allow nations to evaluate their progress in cutting carbon emissions and therefore be aligned with the Paris Climate Agreement goals. To support the initiative of The REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP-2), we built a synthesis of the Australasia (Australia and New Zealand) terrestrial carbon budget for 2010-2019 based on top-down and bottom-up approaches. Major carbon flux components in the bottom-up budget (e.g., net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) were simulated by CABLE model, Biome-BGC model and Cewn simulations. In addition, this budget include carbon flux components from the land-ocean aquatic continuum, such as inland waters, estuaries, blue carbon ecosystems, and continental shelves and carbon fluxes embodied in trade (export and import) of crops, woods, livestock and fossil fuel. We reconciled Australia and New Zealand bottom-up budgets separately with fluxes derived from regional and global OCO-2, GOSAT flux inversions, as well as fluxes obtained from in-situ measurement only (CarbonWatchNZ). We found that annual mean budgets for Australia agree relatively well (within the uncertainty range) with regional and global top-down GOSAT and OCO-2 flux estimates. New Zealand's annual bottom-up carbon budget also agrees relatively well with fluxes derived from CarbonWatchNZ inversion and GOSAT but disagrees with global flux estimates from OCO-2.
No related grants have been discovered for Miko Kirschbaum.