ORCID Profile
0000-0002-6253-4353
Current Organisation
Universidade de Lisboa
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Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2023
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2014
DOI: 10.1071/WF12053
Abstract: Land cover distribution is one of the factors that influence fire behaviour and its consequences in the landscape. The relation between land cover type and fire was investigated at a broad scale, in order to analyse land cover differences in fire proneness. The selection ratio for nine different land cover categories was calculated for the fire perimeters mapped in Southern Europe between 2000 and 2008. The results obtained were then compared per country and region. The fire proneness of topographic classes and its potential association with land cover types were also assessed. At a broad scale, shrublands and grasslands were the most preferred by fire, whereas artificial surfaces and agricultural areas were less fire prone. Forests showed intermediate values of selection ratio. Principal components and cluster analysis identified three regions with significant differences among them: the Mediterranean area, the Balkans and Turkey–Cyprus. Slopes % and with a north aspect were also less susceptible to burning. The identification of common land cover and topographic characteristics allows for the application of common management strategies in Southern Europe, coupled with particular measures adjusted to the conditions that are country- and region-specific.
Publisher: InTech
Date: 14-03-2012
DOI: 10.5772/28441
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Date: 2009
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 06-08-2020
DOI: 10.3390/F11080859
Abstract: The large wildfires of June 2017 disturbed many communities in central Portugal. The civil parish of Alvares was severely affected, with about 60% of its area burnt. Assessing the risk of large wildfires affecting local communities is becoming increasingly important, to reduce potential losses in the future. In this study, we assessed wildfire risk for the 36 villages of Alvares parish, by combining hazard, exposure and vulnerability analysis at the settlement scale. Hazard was obtained from fire spread simulations, which integrated exposure together with population and building density within each village. Vulnerability was based on the sociodemographic characteristics of the population, ranked with a hierarchical cluster analysis. Coping capacity was also integrated, considering the distance of each village to the fire station and the time needed for residents to reach a shelter. We simulated 12 different land management scenarios, regarding the implementation of a fuel-break network and the level of forest management activities. The potential effects of each scenario in the exposure and risk levels of the settlements were evaluated. The results show that, for a business-as-usual scenario, 36% of the villages are at high or very high risk of wildfires. Examining each risk component, 28% of the villages are highly exposed, 44% are highly vulnerable, and 22% do not have a potential shelter on-site, calling for different intervention strategies in each specific risk dimension. All the land management scenarios, even if designed for other purposes than the protection of settlements, could decrease the proportion of highly exposed villages at different levels, up to a maximum of 61%. These findings can contribute to adjust prevention and mitigation strategies to the risk levels and the characteristics of the population and the territory, and to prioritize the protection and emergency actions at the local scale.
Publisher: RISCOS - Associação Portuguesa de Riscos, Prevenção e Segurança
Date: 08-09-2021
DOI: 10.34037/978-989-9053-06-9_1.2_06
Abstract: Um índice de risco de incêndio foi aplicado às 972 freguesias da região Centro de Portugal Continental, integrando três dimensões: perigosidade, exposição e vulnerabilidade social. As freguesias do setor centro-sul apresentam níveis de risco mais elevados. Os padrões espaciais variam para cada dimensão a vulnerabilidade mais elevada ocorre nas freguesias dos setores oriental e centro-sul, enquanto a perigosidade mais alta se localiza numa faixa N-S no setor central da região. As estratégias de redução de risco devem ser ajustadas de acordo com a relevância de cada dimensão.
Publisher: Centro de Estudos Geograficos (IGOT) Universidade de Lisboa
Date: 26-01-2015
DOI: 10.18055/FINIS6464
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 04-2023
DOI: 10.3390/D15040503
Abstract: Cocoa fields in West Africa traditionally kept other tree species to provide shade for cocoa trees and obtain food and other products. Measuring other trees is paramount to monitoring environmental conditions in cocoa agroforests, but it has been difficult to apply at a large scale. This study presents the results of a rapid assessment method applied in Ghana, developed to measure non-cocoa tree characteristics based on easily observed parameters using s le surveys and mapping tools. We collected data from over 8700 cocoa farms and evaluated their bio ersity performance based on 6 indicators classified according to recommended thresholds to benefit bio ersity conditions. Our results show that species richness, shade cover, and potential for tree succession have the lowest proportions of fields with the recommended levels, with variations among regions and districts. The methodological procedure allowed us to identify priority areas and indicators falling behind desirable thresholds, which can inform training and management approaches regarding bio ersity-friendly practices in cocoa fields tailored to the needs of the farmers. The analysis procedure was developed with open-access automated routines, allowing for easy updates and replication to other areas, as well as for other commodities, enabling comparisons at different spatial scales and contributing to monitoring bio ersity over time.
Publisher: Elsevier
Date: 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2014
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2011
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 24-10-2018
DOI: 10.1007/S10661-018-7052-1
Abstract: Fires are a major disturbance to forest ecosystems and socioeconomic activities in Mazandaran province, northern Iran, particularly in the Hyrcanian forest sub-region. Mapping the spatial distribution of fire hazard levels and the most important influencing factors is crucial to enhance fire management strategies. In this research, MODIS hotspots were used to represent fire events covering Mazandaran Province over the period 2000-2016. We applied the ecological niche theory through the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method to estimate fire hazard potential and the association with different anthropogenic and biophysical conditions, by applying different modeling approaches (heuristic, permutation, and jackknife metrics). Our results show that higher fire likelihood is related to density of settlements, distance to roads up to 3 km and to land cover types associated with agricultural activities, indicating a strong influence of human activities in fire occurrence in the region. To decrease fire hazard, prevention activities related to population awareness and the adjustment of farming practices need to be considered.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2012
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2020
DOI: 10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2019.136452
Abstract: Debris flows are one of the most hazardous types of landslides in mountain regions. In the upper part of the Zêzere valley (Serra da Estrela, Portugal) several debris flows events occurred in the last 200 years, some of them causing loss of lives and material damages. In this work, a methodology for pedestrian evacuation modelling, in a debris flow hazard scenario, was implemented. A dynamic run-out model, developed in previous studies, was used to evaluate the debris flows velocities, thickness of the deposits and extent of the mobilized material. The buildings potentially affected by the impact of debris flows were identified and the potentially exposed population was estimated by applying a dasymetric distribution. The results lead to the conclusion that, in the study area, the elderly are those who are most exposed to debris flows. Furthermore, the time lapse between the debris flows initiation and the arrival at the buildings at risk was estimated, allowing to account for the overall number of buildings where the evacuation time takes longer than the debris flows arrival. Additionally, the safe areas within the study area were identified, and several safe public buildings with the capacity to gather a large number of persons were selected. Considering that the study area is located in a mountain region, characterized by steep slopes, the evacuation modelling was performed based on an anisotropic approach, in order to consider the influence of slope direction on travel costs. At the end, three pedestrian evacuation travel time scenarios, based on different walking speeds to accommodate residents with different ages in safer places, were compared and the results mapped. The implemented methodology is not local dependent, which allows its reproduction elsewhere.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-05-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-021-89096-5
Abstract: The Asian tiger mosquito ( Aedes albopictus ), a vector of dengue, Zika and other diseases, was introduced in Europe in the 1970s, where it is still widening its range. Spurred by public health concerns, several studies have delivered predictions of the current and future distribution of the species for this region, often with differing results. We provide the first joint analysis of these predictions, to identify consensus hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as areas with high uncertainty. The analysis focused on current and future climate conditions and was carried out for the whole of Europe and for 65 major urban areas. High consensus on current suitability was found for the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy and the coastline between the western Balkans and Greece. Most models also agree on a substantial future expansion of suitable areas into northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of urban areas are expected to become suitable in the future, in contrast with ~ 49% nowadays. Our findings show that previous research is congruent in identifying wide suitable areas for Aedes albopictus across Europe and in the need to effectively account for climate change in managing and preventing its future spread.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2020
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 06-03-2023
DOI: 10.3390/FIRE6030102
Abstract: Landscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to ersify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-2013
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Date: 2009
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 14-10-2022
DOI: 10.3390/FIRE5050166
Abstract: Wildfire risk assessment provides important tools to fire management, by analysing and aggregating information regarding multiple, interactive dimensions. The three main risk dimensions hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the latter considered in its social dimension, were quantified separately at the local scale for 972 civil parishes in central mainland Portugal and integrated into a wildfire risk index. The importance of each component in the level of risk varied, as assessed by a cluster analysis that established five different groups of parishes, each with a specific profile regarding the relative importance of each dimension. The highest values of wildfire risk are concentrated in the centre-south sector of the study area, with high-risk parishes also dispersed in the northeast. Wildfire risk level is dominated by the hazard component in 52% of the parishes, although with contrasting levels of magnitude. Exposure and social vulnerability dominate together in 32% of the parishes, with the latter being the main risk driver in only 17%. The proposed methodology allows for an integrated, multilevel assessment of wildfire risk, facilitating the effective allocation of resources and the adjustment of risk reduction policies to the specific reality in each parish that results from distinct combinations of the wildfire risk dimensions.
Publisher: Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra
Date: 2014
Publisher: Centro de Estudos Geograficos (IGOT) Universidade de Lisboa
Date: 26-01-2014
DOI: 10.18055/FINIS6455
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 11-09-2023
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 08-02-2023
DOI: 10.3390/FIRE6020060
Abstract: Fire regimes in Mediterranean countries have been shifting in recent decades, including changes in wildfire size and frequency. We sought to describe changes in fire regimes across two periods (1975–1995 and 1996–2018) in a fire-prone region of central Portugal, explore the relationships between these regimes and territorial features, and check whether these associations persisted across periods. Two independent indicators of fire regimes were determined at parish level: fire incidence and burn concentration. Most parishes presented higher values of both indicators in the second period. Higher values of fire incidence were associated with lower population densities, lower proportions of farmland areas and higher proportions of natural vegetation. Higher levels of burn concentration were associated with smaller areas of farmland and natural vegetation. These associations differed across periods, reflecting contrasting climatic and socio-economic contexts. Keeping 40% of a parish territory covered by farmland was effective to buffer the increased wildfire risks associated with different management and climate contexts. The effectiveness of higher population densities in keeping fire incidence low decreased in the last decades. The results can improve the knowledge on the temporal evolution of fire regimes and their conditioning factors, providing contributions for spatial planning and forest/wildfire management policies.
Publisher: Coimbra University Press
Date: 06-2015
Publisher: Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)
Date: 15-12-2019
DOI: 10.2172/6071941
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2021
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 03-08-2019
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-02-2021
DOI: 10.1007/S11069-021-04554-7
Abstract: Wildfire susceptibility and hazard models based on drivers that change only on a multiyear timescale are considered of a structural nature. They ignore specific short-term conditions in any year and period within the year, especially summer, when most wildfire damage occurs in southern Europe. We investigate whether the predictive capacity of structural wildfire susceptibility and hazard models can be improved by integrating a seasonal dimension, expressed by three variables with yearly to seasonal timescales: (1) a meteorological index rating fuel flammability at the onset of summer (2) the scarcity of fuel associated with the burned areas of the previous year, and (3) the excessive abundance of fuel in especially fire-prone areas that have not been burned in the previous ten years. We describe a new methodology for combining the structural maps with the seasonal variables, producing year-specific seasonal susceptibility and hazard maps. We then compare the structural and seasonal maps as to their capacity to predict burnt areas during the summer period in a set of eight independent years. The seasonal maps revealed a higher predictive capacity in 75% of the validation period, both for susceptibility and hazard, when only the highest class was considered. This percentage was reduced to 50% when the two highest classes were considered together. In some years, structural factors and other unconsidered variables probably exert a strong influence over the spatial pattern of wildfire incidence. These findings can complement existing structural data and improve the mapping tools used to define wildfire prevention and mitigation actions.
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 09-09-2022
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0274286
Abstract: Commuting flows and long-distance travel are important spreading factors of viruses and particularly airborne ones. Therefore, it is relevant to examine the association among erse mobility scenarios and the spatial dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 cases. We intended to analyze the patterns of virus spreading linked to different mobility scenarios, in order to better comprehend the effect of the lockdown measures, and how such measures can be better informed. We simulated the effects of mobility restrictions in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 amongst the municipalities of two metropolitan areas, Lisbon (LMA) and Porto (PMA). Based on an adapted SEIR (Suscetible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model, we estimated the number of new daily infections during one year, according to different mobility scenarios: restricted to essential activities, industrial activities, public transport use, and a scenario with unrestricted mobility including all transport modes. The trends of new daily infections were further explored using time-series clustering analysis, using dynamic time warping. Mobility restrictions resulted in lower numbers of new daily infections when compared to the unrestricted mobility scenario, in both metropolitan areas. Between March and September 2020, the official number of new infections followed overall a similar timeline to the one simulated considering only essential activities. At the municipal level, trends differ amongst the two metropolitan areas. The analysis of the effects of mobility in virus spread within different municipalities and regions could help tailoring future strategies and increase the public acceptance of eventual restrictions.
Publisher: Associação Portuguesa de Sistemas de Informação, APSI
Date: 07-06-2017
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Date: 14-09-2012
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-10-2010
DOI: 10.1007/S00484-010-0379-0
Abstract: We aim to understand the relationship between people's declared bioclimatic comfort, their personal characteristics (age, origin, clothing, activity and motivation, etc.) and the atmospheric conditions. To attain this goal, questionnaire surveys were made concurrently with weather measurements (air temperature, relative humidity, solar and long-wave radiation and wind speed) in two open leisure areas of Lisbon (Portugal), during the years 2006 and 2007. We analysed the desire expressed by the interviewees to decrease, maintain or increase the values of air temperature and wind speed, in order to improve their level of comfort. Multiple logistic regression was used to analyse the quantitative relation between preference votes and environmental and personal parameters. The preference for a different temperature depends on the season and is strongly associated with wind speed. Furthermore, a general decrease of discomfort with increasing age was also found. Most people declared a preference for lower wind speed in all seasons the perception of wind shows significant differences depending on gender, with women declaring a lower level of comfort with higher wind speed. It was also found that the tolerance of warmer conditions is higher than of cooler conditions, and that adaptive strategies are undertaken by people to improve their level of comfort outdoors.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-05-2007
DOI: 10.1007/S00484-007-0100-0
Abstract: This paper describes the application of a methodology designed to analyse the relationship between climatic conditions and the perception of bioclimatic comfort. The experiment consisted of conducting simultaneous questionnaire surveys and weather measurements during 2 sunny spring days in an open urban area in Lisbon. The results showed that under outdoor conditions, thermal comfort can be maintained with temperatures well above the standard values defined for indoor conditions. There seems to be a spontaneous adaptation in terms of clothing whenever the physiological equivalent temperature threshold of 31 degrees C is surpassed. The perception of air temperature is difficult to separate from the perception of the thermal environment and is modified by other parameters, particularly wind. The perception of solar radiation is related to the intensity of fluxes from various directions (i.e. falling upon both vertical and horizontal surfaces), weighted by the coefficients of incidence upon the human body. Wind was found to be the most intensely perceived variable, usually negatively. Wind perception depends largely on the extreme values of wind speed and wind variability. Women showed a stronger negative reaction to high wind speed than men. The experiment proved that this methodology is well-suited to achieving the proposed objectives and that it may be applied in other areas and in other seasons.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 12-03-2023
DOI: 10.3390/FIRE6030112
Abstract: We characterize fire regimes in central Portugal and investigate the degree to which the differences between regimes are influenced by a set of biophysical drivers. Using civil parishes as units of analysis, we employ three complementary parameters to describe the fire regime over a reference period of 44 years (1975–2018), namely cumulative percentage of parish area burned, Gini concentration index of burned area over time, and area-weighted total number of wildfires. Cluster analysis is used to aggregate parishes into groups with similar fire regimes based on these parameters. A classification tree model is then used to assess the capacity of a set of potential biophysical drivers to discriminate between the different parish groups. The results allowed us to distinguish four types of fire regime and show that these can be significantly differentiated using the biophysical drivers, of which land use/land cover (LULC), slope, and spring rainfall are the most important. Among LULC classes, shrubland and herbaceous vegetation play the foremost role, followed by agriculture. Our results highlight the importance of vegetation type, availability, and rate of regeneration, as well as that of topography, in influencing fire regimes in the study area, while suggesting that these regimes should be subject to specific wildfire prevention and mitigation policies.
Publisher: Elsevier
Date: 2022
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2018
DOI: 10.1016/J.JENVMAN.2017.10.003
Abstract: Vulnerability assessment is a vital component of wildfire management. This research focused on the development of a framework to measure and map vulnerability levels in several areas within Mediterranean Europe, where wildfires are a major concern. The framework followed a stepwise approach to evaluate its main components, expressed by exposure, sensitivity and coping capacity. Data on population density, fuel types, protected areas location, roads infrastructure and surveillance activities, among others, were integrated to create composite indices, representing each component and articulated in multiple dimensions. Maps were created for several test areas, in northwest Portugal, southwest Sardinia in Italy and northeast Corsica in France, with the contribution of local participants from civil protection institutions and forest services. Results showed the influence of fuel sensitivity levels, population distribution and protected areas coverage for the overall vulnerability classes. Reasonable levels of accuracy were found on the maps provided through the validation procedure, with an overall match above 72% for the several sites. The systematic and flexible approach applied allowed for adjustments to local circumstances with regards to data availability and fire management procedures, without compromising its consistency and with substantial operational capabilities. The results obtained and the positive feedback of end-users encourage its further application, as a means to improve wildfire management strategies at multiple levels with the latest scientific outputs.
Publisher: InTech
Date: 08-11-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2021
Location: Italy
Start Date: 2018
End Date: 2022
Funder: Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2013
End Date: 2015
Funder: European Commission
View Funded Activity