ORCID Profile
0000-0001-8812-7556
Current Organisation
University of Melbourne
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Research Topics
In Research Link Australia (RLA), "Research Topics" refer to ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes. These topics are either sourced from ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes listed in researchers' related grants or generated by a large language model (LLM) based on their publications.
Top 5 Research Topics
ANZSRC Field of Research (FoR)
Demography | Population Trends and Policies | Migration | Other Studies in Human Society | Urban and Regional Studies (excl. Planning) | Human Geography | Population Trends And Policies | Urban And Regional Studies | Studies In Human Society Not Elsewhere Classified | Applied Statistics | Urban And Regional Economics | Studies of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Society | Urban and Regional Planning not elsewhere classified | Applied Statistics | Demography not elsewhere classified | Migration | Family And Household Studies | Fertility
ANZSRC Socio-Economic Objective (SEO)
Expanding Knowledge through Studies of Human Society | Studies in human society | Urban Planning | Urban planning | Families | Demography | Regional Planning | Understanding Australia's Past | Health related to ageing | Public Services Policy Advice and Analysis | Application Software Packages (excl. Computer Games) | Resourcing of Education and Training Systems | Evaluation of Health Outcomes | Ethnicity, Multiculturalism and Migrant Development and Welfare | Consumption patterns, population issues and the environment |
Related Links
Publications
The determinants of job satisfaction amongst specific migrant construction workers
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 17-05-2023
DOI: 10.1108/BEPAM-06-2022-0078
Abstract: Migrant construction workers, significant in many developed economies, face several challenges, which place them at a higher risk of job dissatisfaction compared to locals. Therefore, this study investigates the determinants of job satisfaction amongst a specific group of migrant construction workers, who hold temporary work visas (TWVs) in New Zealand (NZ). An explanatory research approach was used to investigate the determinants of job satisfaction identified through the literature review. Data were collected through a structured survey administered to 200 Chinese migrants on TWVs (short stays) working on selected major projects in the Auckland region. Data analysis involved T-test and structural equation modelling (SEM) of 102 valid questionnaire responses. The study highlights the importance of providing opportunities for knowledge advancement and career progression for migrant construction workers to improve their job satisfaction. The results found that Chinese migrant construction workers are generally satisfied with their jobs and would extend their stay if job opportunities are provided. The results confirm that remuneration and opportunities for knowledge advancement and career progression lead to increased job satisfaction, while loneliness decreases job satisfaction. The opportunities for knowledge advancement and career progression triggered more satisfaction than remuneration. The research result provides a useful knowledge base for understanding the determinants of job satisfaction amongst Chinese migrant construction workers with TWVs. These findings have implications for employment management practices within the construction industry and could enhance immigration information policies and other recruitment agencies' approaches to sourcing overseas workers for the NZ construction industry.
The rapid growth of Australia’s advanced age population
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-09-2020
The Changing Migrant Composition of Australia’s Population
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 2021
Evaluation of the best M4 competition methods for small area population forecasting
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2023
Probabilistic Regional Population Forecasts: The Example of Queensland, Australia
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 11-12-2006
Projecting the sexual minority population: Methods, data, and illustrative projections for Australia
Publisher: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Date: 29-07-2021
Simplifying Local Area Population and Household Projections with POPART
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Date: 10-10-2014
Forecast Accuracy and Uncertainty of Australian Bureau of Statistics State and Territory Population Projections
Publisher: Hindawi Limited
Date: 08-11-2012
DOI: 10.1155/2012/419824
Abstract: Errors from past rounds of population projections can provide both diagnostic information to improve future projections as well as information for users on the likely uncertainty of current projections. This paper assesses the forecast accuracy of official Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population projections for the states and territories of Australia and is the first major study to do so. For the states and territories, it is found that, after 10-year projection durations, absolute percentage errors lie between about 1% and 3% for the states and around 6% for the territories. Age-specific population projections are also assessed. It is shown that net interstate migration and net overseas migration are the demographic components of change which contributed most to forecast error. The paper also compares ABS projections of total population against simple linear extrapolation, finding that, overall, ABS projections just outperformed extrapolation. No identifiable trend in accuracy over time is detected. Under the assumption of temporal stability in the magnitude of error, empirical prediction intervals are created from past errors and applied to the current set of ABS projections. The paper concludes with a few ideas for future projection rounds.
The impact of education-bound mobility on inter-regional migration age profiles in Australia
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-10-2014
Demographic futures for South East Queensland
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 09-2010
New Population and Life Expectancy Estimates for the Indigenous Population of Australia's Northern Territory, 1966–2011
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 27-05-2014
Does Averaging Yield More Accurate Local and Regional Population Forecasts?
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-05-2016
The Demographic Constraints on Future Population Growth in Regional Australia
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 02-01-2015
Relationships Between Population Change, Deprivation Change and Health Change at Small Area Level: Australia 2001–2011
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 2016
Modelling with NEWDSS: Producing State, Regional and Local Area Population Projections for New South Wales
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Date: 2011
Navigating a public health crisis: Governance and sensemaking during the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2023
The geography of Australia's Marriage Law Postal Survey outcome
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-06-2019
DOI: 10.1111/AREA.12558
The sequential propensity household projection model
Publisher: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Date: 03-04-2013
Evaluation of simple methods for regional mortality forecasts
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 27-09-2018
Limited progress in closing the mortality gap for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians of the Northern Territory
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2019
Abstract: To assess whether progress is being made towards reducing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander inequality in life expectancy and under-five mortality in the Northern Territory. Life tables for five-year periods from 1966-71 to 2011-16 were calculated using standard abridged life table methods with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths and population estimates as inputs. The latter were calculated using reverse cohort survival. In 2011-16, life expectancy at birth for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population was 68.2 years for females and 64.9 years for males. Limited progress in under-five mortality rates has been made in recent years. Although Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander life expectancy has increased in the long run, the gap with all-Australian life expectancy has not narrowed. The gap in under-five mortality rates is much lower than it was in the 1960s and 1970s, but progress has been limited over the past decade. Implications for public health: The 'Closing the Gap' target of halving the gap in under-five mortality by 2018 will not be met in the Northern Territory, and there is no evidence yet of progress on the target to eliminate the gap in life expectancy by 2031.
The future of Australia’s Indigenous Population, 2011–61
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 09-2016
DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1224372
Abstract: Existing projections of Australia's Indigenous Population suffer from a number of limitations: problematic input data, unsatisfactory projection model design, and poor forecast performance. The aim of this study was to create a new model for projecting that population that better represents the demographic processes at work, and that makes use of a newly available data source on identification change. A new projection model is presented that explicitly incorporates ethnic-identification change, and mixed (Indigenous/Non-Indigenous) partnering and childbearing. It is a composite static-dynamic model which takes a multi-state form where data allow. The model was used to produce projections for the 2011-61 period. Rapid growth of the Indigenous Population is expected, with population momentum, identification change, and mixed partnering and childbearing shown to contribute more to growth than above-replacement fertility and increasing life expectancy. The future growth of Australia's Indigenous Population is thus intimately connected to its interaction with the Non-Indigenous Population.
Evaluation of Alternative Cohort-Component Models for Local Area Population Forecasts
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-11-2015
Accuracy of Nearly Extinct Cohort Methods for Estimating Very Elderly Subnational Populations
Publisher: Hindawi Limited
Date: 07-2015
DOI: 10.1155/2015/978186
Abstract: Increasing very elderly populations (ages 85+) have potentially major implications for the cost of income support, aged care, and healthcare. The availability of accurate estimates for this population age group, not only at a national level but also at a state or regional scale, is vital for policy development, budgeting, and planning for services. At the highest ages census-based population estimates are well known to be problematic and previous studies have demonstrated that more accurate estimates can be obtained indirectly from death data. This paper assesses indirect estimation methods for estimating state-level very elderly populations from death counts. A method for incorporating internal migration is also proposed. The results confirm that the accuracy of official estimates deteriorates rapidly with increasing age from 95 and that the survivor ratio method can be successfully applied at subnational level and internal migration is minor. It is shown that the simpler alternative of applying the survivor ratio method at a national level and apportioning the estimates between the states produces very accurate estimates for most states and years. This is the recommended method. While the methods are applied at a state level in Australia, the principles are generic and are applicable to other subnational geographies.
Introduction
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 2016
Northern Territory indigenous life expectancy improvements, 1967-2004.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2007
DOI: 10.1111/J.1753-6405.2007.00039.X
Abstract: To assess the extent of changes in life expectancy at birth for the Indigenous population of the Northern Territory (NT) over the period 1967-2004, and to determine which age-specific mortality rates were mostly responsible for such change. Life expectancy at birth figures were obtained via life table calculations using a high-quality and internally consistent dataset of NT Indigenous deaths and populations covering the period 1967-2004. A life expectancy at birth age decomposition technique was then applied. Indigenous life expectancy at birth has risen considerably in the NT, increasing from about 52 years for males and 54 years females in the late 1960s to about 60 years for males and 68 years for females in recent years. Significantly, for NT Indigenous females the gap with total Australian life expectancy has narrowed. In contrast to popular perception, Indigenous life expectancy in the Northern Territory has improved substantially from the late 1960s to the present. The widespread pessimism that surrounds Indigenous health and mortality is largely unfounded, at least for the NT. Although much remains to be done to reduce Indigenous mortality, the results in this paper demonstrate that improvements are occurring and that sustained and increased effort is worthwhile and will succeed.
Evaluating Alternative Implementations of the Hamilton-Perry Model for Small Area Population Forecasts: the Case of Australia
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-01-2022
POPACTS: Simplified Projection Software for State, Regional and Local Area Population Projections
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 2016
English Language Proficiency Among Older Migrants in Australia, 2016–2046
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-06-2022
Trace gas oxidizers are widespread and active members of soil microbial communities
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-01-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41564-020-00811-W
Abstract: Soil microorganisms globally are thought to be sustained primarily by organic carbon sources. Certain bacteria also consume inorganic energy sources such as trace gases, but they are presumed to be rare community members, except within some oligotrophic soils. Here we combined metagenomic, biogeochemical and modelling approaches to determine how soil microbial communities meet energy and carbon needs. Analysis of 40 metagenomes and 757 derived genomes indicated that over 70% of soil bacterial taxa encode enzymes to consume inorganic energy sources. Bacteria from 19 phyla encoded enzymes to use the trace gases hydrogen and carbon monoxide as supplemental electron donors for aerobic respiration. In addition, we identified a fourth phylum (Gemmatimonadota) potentially capable of aerobic methanotrophy. Consistent with the metagenomic profiling, communities within soil profiles from erse habitats rapidly oxidized hydrogen, carbon monoxide and to a lesser extent methane below atmospheric concentrations. Thermodynamic modelling indicated that the power generated by oxidation of these three gases is sufficient to meet the maintenance needs of the bacterial cells capable of consuming them. Diverse bacteria also encode enzymes to use trace gases as electron donors to support carbon fixation. Altogether, these findings indicate that trace gas oxidation confers a major selective advantage in soil ecosystems, where availability of preferred organic substrates limits microbial growth. The observation that inorganic energy sources may sustain most soil bacteria also has broad implications for understanding atmospheric chemistry and microbial bio ersity in a changing world.
Insights from the Evaluation of Past Local Area Population Forecasts
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-10-2018
Introduction to the census questions special issue
Publisher: Australian Population Studies
Date: 30-05-2021
DOI: 10.37970/APS.V5I1.74
Abstract: No abstract
Population Growth
Publisher: Elsevier
Date: 2020
Subnational population forecasts: Do users want to know about uncertainty?
Publisher: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Date: 26-07-2019
Australia's uncertain demographic future
Publisher: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Date: 23-09-2004
Renewal ecology: conservation for the Anthropocene
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-08-2017
DOI: 10.1111/REC.12560
Regulating Brain–Computer Interfaces: Ensuring Soft Law Does Not Go Flat
Publisher: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Date: 06-2023
The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-2007
DOI: 10.1007/BF03031880
Will the COVID-19 pandemic affect population ageing in Australia?
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 15-03-2022
To what extent is Australia’s population ageing? The application of traditional and alternative ageing measures
Publisher: Australian Population Studies
Date: 22-05-2020
DOI: 10.37970/APS.V4I1.63
Abstract: Background Most studies of population ageing apply traditional ageing measures, such as the number or percentage of the population aged 65 and above. In the context of gradually improving health and mortality at age 65, the use of a fixed age cut-off to define ‘older age’ needs to be revisited. Aim The aim of this paper is to re-assess the extent of population ageing in Australia and the States and Territories over past decades and in the future as indicated by both traditional and alternative ageing measures. Data and methods Both numerical and structural ageing was measured using age cut-offs for the older population of (i) age 65, (ii) the age at which there is 15 years life expectancy remaining, and (iii) the age at which the mortality rate is above 0.01. The data consisted of life tables, population estimates and population projections. Results Both traditional and alternative ageing measures indicate considerable past and future numerical ageing. Structural ageing has been strong since the 1970s in terms of the percentage aged 65+, but the alternative ageing measures paint quite a different picture of structural ageing both in the past and in the future. Conclusions The use of a traditional measure of population ageing in combination with a mortality-based measure, such as the population with remaining life expectancy of under 15 years, is helpful for demographic analyses of ageing.
Understanding the Growth of Australia’s Very Elderly Population, 1976 to 2012
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-11-2014
An introduction to population projections for Australia
Publisher: Australian Population Studies
Date: 25-05-2019
DOI: 10.37970/APS.V3I1.46
Abstract: Background Population projections for Australia are produced by many organisations. They differ in projected population numbers, methods used, level of output detail, temporal extent, frequency of revision, quality and purpose, and they are not always easy to find. Aims This paper provides a brief guide to many of the population projections prepared for Australia in recent years. It gives an overview of projection methods and selected results, a brief commentary on key aspects of the projections, and shows readers where to find more data and information. Data and methods Projections data were obtained from the various organisations producing projections. They are presented in order of spatial detail: national scale, States and Territories large sub-state regions and then local and small areas. Results The ABS and State and Territory Governments are the main producers of population projections and forecasts in Australia, and generally these projections are good quality. They cover a wide variety of spatial scales from the national level to local areas, such as SA2s. A great deal of projections data and information is now freely available online. Conclusions Population projections and forecasts can be very useful data for a wide variety of planning, policy and research purposes. But it is important to be aware of their limitations.
Demography for Planning and Policy: Australian Case Studies
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 2016
Visualising the demographic factors which shape population age structure
Publisher: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Date: 22-09-2016
The Shelf Life of Official Sub-National Population Forecasts in England
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 21-11-2019
DOI: 10.1007/S12061-019-09325-3
Abstract: We measure the empirical distribution of the accuracy of projected population in sub-national areas of England, developing the concept of ‘shelf life’: the furthest horizon for which the subsequent best estimate of population is within 10% of the forecast, for at least 80% of areas projected. Since local government reorganisation in 1974, the official statistics agency has projected the population of each local government area in England: for 108 areas in nine forecasts up to the 1993-based, and for over 300 areas in 10 forecasts from the 1996-based to the 2014-based forecasts. By comparing the published forecast (we use this term rather than projection) with the post-census population estimates, the empirical distribution of errors has been described. It is particularly dependent on the forecast horizon and the type of local authority. For 10-year forecasts the median absolute percentage error has been 7% for London Boroughs and 3% for Shire Districts. Users of forecasts tend to have in mind a horizon and a required accuracy that is of relevance to their application. A shelf life of 10 years is not sufficient if the user required that accuracy of a forecast 15 years ahead. The relevant effective shelf life deducts the user’s horizon. We explore the empirical performance of official sub-national forecasts in this light. A five-year forecast for London Boroughs requiring 10% accuracy is already beyond its effective shelf life by the time it is published. Collaboration between forecasters and users of forecasts can develop information on uncertainty that is useful to planning.
Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-08-2022
Estimating a Consistent and Detailed Time Series of Immigration and Emigration for Sub-state Regions of Australia
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-09-2020
The regional pattern of Australia’s largest overseas-born populations
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 2017
Outcomes of treatment of fractures of the frontal sinus: review from a tertiary multispecialty craniofacial trauma service
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2016
Methods for Estimating Sub-State International Migration: The Case of Australia
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-03-2017
Understanding the role of natural hazards in internal labour mobility in Australia
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2020
Estimating historical total fertility rates for Australia and its states
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 03-07-2014
Caught in quicksand? Compliance and legitimacy challenges in using regulatory sandboxes to manage emerging technologies
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 16-07-2023
DOI: 10.1111/REGO.12487
Abstract: Regulatory sandboxes have become the latest development in regulatory reform, starting first in financial regulation and now expanding to other sectors. While sandboxes offer notable potential benefits for managing emerging technologies, achieving desirable policy outcomes with this novel regulatory instrument also comes with technical and political challenges. This article offers a framework to characterize regulatory sandboxes in any sector, involving a blend of (1) approval regulation with broad‐based standards, (2) restricted discretion by the regulator for specific norms, (3) process‐oriented regulation, (4) an outcomes‐orientation, and (5) structured regulator–regulatee information sharing or dialogue. Using this model, the article outlines issues in compliance and legitimacy, including in trust and accountability, responsive enforcement, the politics of participation, and post‐sandbox oversight. The article concludes by calling for greater scrutiny when considering implementing a sandbox instrument, with attention to sector‐specific concerns, and offering directions for empirical evaluation of regulatory sandboxes.
Estimates of Australia’s non-heterosexual population
Publisher: Australian Population Studies
Date: 26-05-2018
DOI: 10.37970/APS.V2I1.23
Abstract: Background Demographers have studied minority populations for many years, but relatively little attention has been paid to sexual minority groups. Population estimates for sexual minorities would be useful as denominators for a range of health and socioeconomic indicators, to monitor representation in employment, assist budget planning and inform the marketing of goods and services. Aim The aim of this paper is to present some approximate estimates of the non-heterosexual adult population of Australia in mid-2016 by sex, broad age group and state and territory. Data and methods Data on sexual identity were sourced from three nationally representative surveys: the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey, the second Australian Study of Health and Relationships and the ABS General Social Survey. Use was made also of 2016 ABS Census of Population and Housing (Census) data and Estimated Resident Populations. Prevalence rates of the non-heterosexual population aged 18+ were averaged over the three surveys and multiplied by ERP to obtain national population estimates. Census data on same-sex couples were used to distribute the national estimates by state and territory. Results Australia’s non-heterosexual population aged 18+ in 2016 is estimated to have been 592,000, representing about 3.2% of the adult population. New South Wales is home to the largest non-heterosexual population (about 204,000) and the Northern Territory the smallest (4,700), while the highest prevalence is in the Australian Capital Territory (5.1%). Conclusions Australia’s non-heterosexual population is a relatively small population, but its prevalence varies considerably by age and sex and between states and territories. Estimates of this population should prove useful for monitoring health and wellbeing and for a variety of planning and policy purposes.
Quantifying the uncertainty of regional demographic forecasts
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2013
Visualising the COVID-19 related disruptions to long-distance population mobility in Australia
Publisher: Australian Population Studies
Date: 30-05-2021
DOI: 10.37970/APS.V5I1.85
Abstract: No abstract
Using Precision Public Health to Manage Climate Change: Opportunities, Challenges, and Health Justice
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 2020
Abstract: Amid public health concerns over climate change, “precision public health” (PPH) is emerging in next generation approaches to practice. These novel methods promise to augment public health operations by using ever larger and more robust health datasets combined with new tools for collecting and analyzing data. Precision strategies to protecting the public health could more effectively or efficiently address the systemic threats of climate change, but may also propagate or exacerbate health disparities for the populations most vulnerable in a changing climate. How PPH interventions collect and aggregate data, decide what to measure, and analyze data pose potential issues around privacy, neglecting social determinants of health, and introducing algorithmic bias into climate responses. Adopting a health justice framework, guided by broader social and climate justice tenets, can reveal principles and policy actions which may guide more responsible implementation of PPH in climate responses.
A brief guide to producing a national population projection
Publisher: Australian Population Studies
Date: 23-02-0023
DOI: 10.37970/APS.V5I1.84
Abstract: Background There are surprisingly few resources available which offer an introductory guide to preparing a national population projection using a cohort-component model. Many demography textbooks cover projections quite briefly, and many academic papers on projections focus on advanced technical issues. Aims The aim of this paper is to provide a short and accessible guide to producing a national-scale population projection using the cohort-component model. Data and methods The paper describes the cohort-component model from a population accounting perspective, presents all the necessary projection calculations, and covers the key steps which form part of the projections preparation process – from gathering input data to validating outputs. An accompanying Excel workbook implements the model and contains ex le projections for Australia. Conclusions Calculating a national population projection using a cohort-component model involves fairly simple algebra, but the broader projections preparation process is more complex, and requires careful consideration and judgement.
Internal Migration in the Developed World
Publisher: Routledge
Date: 16-08-2017
Legislating in the time of a pandemic: window of opportunity or invitation for recklessness?
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 2020
DOI: 10.1093/JLB/LSAA042
Alternative methods of determining the number of House of Representatives seats for Australia’s territories
Publisher: Australian Population Studies
Date: 19-11-2017
DOI: 10.37970/APS.V1I1.9
Abstract: Background: Population size determines the number of seats each Australian state and territory is entitled to in the House of Representatives. The Northern Territory (NT) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) were allocated two and three seats, respectively, in the August 2017 determination, but by very small margins. Both territories risk losing a seat at the next determination. This would result in them having considerably more people per member of parliament than any of the states. Aims: This paper (1) provides modelling to support the consideration of alternative rules for determining membership entitlement to the House of Representatives which does not disadvantage the NT and ACT and (2) presents population projections for future determinations under the current and alternative rules. Data and methods: Population projections for the states and territories were produced for three demographic scenarios. The resulting numbers of seats for the NT and ACT were calculated for each scenario under the current and proposed alternative seat entitlement rules. Results: Under the existing rules the NT and ACT would only keep their current number of seats at the next determination if they experienced higher net in-migration than in recent years. Under the alternative seat entitlement rules suggested, the NT and ACT would be very unlikely to lose any seats and would almost certainly gain seats in ensuing decades. Conclusions: There is a case for re-examining the way the states and territories are allocated seats in the House of Representatives.
Demographic drivers of the growth of the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people living with dementia, 2016-2051.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 22-08-2022
DOI: 10.1111/AJAG.13116
Abstract: To examine the demographic drivers that contribute to the future growth in the population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples living with dementia in Australia. Design: Multistate, Indigenous status, cohort component, population projection model. National-level, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. Data prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on births, deaths, migration and identification change. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare estimates of dementia prevalence alongside estimates from several studies. Number of older people living with dementia alongside a decomposition of demographic drivers of growth. By 2051, the relative growth in the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples aged 50+ with dementia ranges from 4½ to 5½ times (under three prevalence scenarios) its 2016 estimate. Cohort flow (the gradual movement of younger cohorts into the 50+ age group, and the depletion of older cohorts from death, over time) is a key driver of the growth in the number of older people living with dementia. High growth in the number of people living with dementia poses implications for culturally appropriate care, health-care access and support for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander families, carers and their communities.
Spatially consistent local area population estimates for Australia, 1986–2011
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-11-2015
New estimates of Australia’s centenarian population
Publisher: Swansea University
Date: 20-06-2018
Abstract: IntroductionThe population of Australia at the very highest ages is growing rapidly, like that of many countries. But official population estimates at these ages are of lower quality than those at younger ages, a problem shared by many countries which base their population estimates on census counts. This has implications for many uses of the data, especially rates for which the estimates provide denominators. ObjectiveThe aims of this paper are to (1) present new population estimates of Australia’s centenarian population (those aged 100 years and above) for 1981 to 2016 which are better quality than official statistics, and (2) illustrate the utility of such estimates as rate denominators by calculating centenarian death rates. MethodsPopulation estimates at the highest ages were prepared using a combination of the Extinct Cohort method and a modified Survivor Ratio method. The key modifications of the latter involve projecting and smoothing Survivor Ratios within an iterative set of calculations. Death rates were calculated as standard occurrence/exposure rates. Input data of deaths and official Estimated Resident Populations were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. ResultsWe show that Australia’s centenarian population grew from about 500 in 1981 to just over 3,900 by 2016, equivalent to an annual average growth rate of 5.9%. Centenarian death rates for the 1981-2016 period remained roughly steady, averaging 0.44 for females and 0.51 for males. ConclusionsOur modified approach adds a degree of stability to the Survivor Ratio method and yields high-quality population estimates and death rates at advanced ages. It could easily be implemented by national statistical offices.
A Multistate Model for Projecting Regional Populations by Indigenous Status: An Application to the Northern Territory, Australia
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 2009
DOI: 10.1068/A402
Abstract: The author presents a multistate model for projecting regional populations by Indigenous status. Previous methods employed to project the Australian Indigenous population did not model interaction between the Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, in large part because of serious data deficiencies. Improvements in data coverage and quality, particularly in the Northern Territory, now permit the effective use of conceptually preferable multistate methods. The multistate model presented in this paper explicitly incorporates identification change and, in contrast to previous modelling which has assumed all offspring of mixed Indigenous/non-Indigenous couples to be Indigenous, permits babies born to mixed couples to be ascribed either Indigenous or non-Indigenous identities. A hybrid directional–net-migration approach is taken to the modelling of internal migration. Illustrative projections are presented for the Northern Territory.
No Longer Indigenous
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-06-2023
DOI: 10.1007/S11113-023-09801-2
Abstract: Investigating in idual level-Indigenous identification change by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians has been enabled through the linkage of census data across time. This study focusses on the population who moved from an identification of Indigenous in the 2011 census to not Indigenous in the 2016 census. We calculated transition probabilities for a range of personal characteristics to investigate the influence of broad life-course transitions on the pattern of identification change. In addition to age, we found that sex, employment, mixed ancestry, interstate migration, and living arrangements had the strongest associations with the risk of a transition to not Indigenous. The highest transition probabilities were at each end of the adult life-course and the role of “not stated” was implicated, destabilising assumptions that decisions to identify as Indigenous, or not, always reflect personal agency. Finally, the paper challenges the adequacy of an origin-based identity question to define the increasingly complex ethnic histories of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander people. Both improved definition and enumeration of Indigenous Australians are fundamental to current national conversations about constitutional recognition and continuing gaps in measured health and wellbeing.
The Growth of Australia’s Very Elderly Population: Past Estimates and Probabilistic Forecasts
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 12-11-2016
BIM knowledge transfer in construction industry: a partial least square analysis
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 09-11-2022
DOI: 10.1108/JEDT-06-2022-0287
Abstract: There are several technologies positively impacting the management of construction projects. Building information modelling (BIM) is one such technology, slowly changing project delivery. However, enhancing knowledge transfer (KT) within the construction industry is crucial because of the characteristic slow uptake of innovation. Therefore, this study aims to establish the effectiveness of the KT mechanism for BIM implementation in construction organisations. This study adopted a quantitative research method where a structured questionnaire was distributed to construction professionals. A partial least square structural equation modeling path analysis was used to test the direct and indirect relationships of computer self-efficacy (CS), perceived ease of use (PEOU), KT and BIM usage. This study found that CS could improve KT, which will, in turn, increase the implementation of BIM within construction organisations. However, in terms of KT, in iduals’ confidence and ability to use BIM inspires them to share the knowledge of BIM they had received through training. Furthermore, this study found that the ease of interacting, learning and being skilful with BIM may not necessarily ensure the actual transfer of knowledge. This study provides valuable insights into KTs (BIM implementation) in the construction industry. It will enhance the use of BIM systems and related knowledge through effective training amongst construction practitioners. Other previous studies have focused on challenges and barriers to BIM implementation, this study goes deeper into establishing the effectiveness of the KT mechanism for BIM implementation in construction organisations.
What is the size of Australia’s sexual minority population?
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-11-2020
DOI: 10.1186/S13104-020-05383-W
Abstract: The aim is to present updated estimates of the size of Australia’s sexual minority adult population (gay, lesbian, bisexual, and other sexual minority identities). No estimate of this population is currently available from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and very little is available from other sources. We obtained data on sexual minority identities from three data collections of two national surveys of recent years. Combining averaged prevalence rates from these surveys with official Estimated Resident Population data, we produce estimates of Australia’s sexual minority population for recent years. According to percentages averaged across the three survey datasets, 3.6% of males and 3.4% of females described themselves with a minority sexual identity. When applied to Estimated Resident Populations, this gives a sexual minority population at ages 18 + in Australia of 599,500 in 2011 and 651,800 in 2016. Population estimates were also produced by sex and broad age group, revealing larger numbers and higher sexual minority percentages in the younger age groups, and smaller numbers and percentages in the oldest age group. Separate population estimates were also prepared for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and other sexual minority identities.
Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-2004
DOI: 10.1007/BF03031895
Were there really 1 million unoccupied dwellings in Australia on census night 2021?
Publisher: Australian Population Studies
Date: 17-12-2022
Abstract: Background The 2021 Census in Australia revealed that just over 1 million dwellings were ‘unoccupied’ on census night. This finding was widely reported and may have given the impression of a large number of vacant dwellings ready for households to move into, potentially offering a solution to homelessness and those struggling to find suitable or affordable accommodation. Aims The aim of the paper is to investigate whether there really were 1 million unoccupied dwellings in Australia in 2021, to shed some conceptual and empirical light on exactly what is meant by an ‘occupied’ and an ‘unoccupied’ dwelling, and also try to understand why dwellings were unoccupied. Data and methods We used a variety of census, population, and dwelling data to estimate the number of private dwellings disaggregated by occupancy on both a de facto basis (whether people were present in dwelling on census night or not) and on a usual residence basis (whether people are usually resident in a dwelling or not). A comparison with the situation at the time of the 2016 Census is made. Results The results show that there were indeed about 1 million dwellings unoccupied on a usual residence basis in Australia in 2021. But they were not the exact same 1 million unoccupied on census night, and not all of these dwellings were available to households to live in. There was a substantial increase in the number of dwellings unoccupied by usual residents between 2016 and 2021 we suggest some possible reasons for this, including Covid-related effects. Conclusions Greater clarity and more detail are needed in census dwelling data. In addition, it would be useful if there were detailed annual official statistics on dwellings and households to better inform housing policy and research.
An Evaluation of Nearly-Extinct Cohort Methods for Estimating the Very Elderly Populations of Australia and New Zealand
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 07-04-2020
New Evaluations of Simple Models for Small Area Population Forecasts
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-06-2009
DOI: 10.1002/PSP.1847
Local Area Estimates and Geographical Patterns of Australia’s Sexual Minority Population
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-09-2022
Model migration schedules incorporating student migration peaks
Publisher: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Date: 27-07-2010
Editorial: Advances in local and small-area demographic modelling
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 20-05-2011
Why Scotland needs more than just a new migration policy
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 2003
A Survey of Instruments and Institutions Available for the Global Governance of Artificial Intelligence
Publisher: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
Date: 12-2021
Comparing alternative statistics on recent fertility trends in Australia
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-08-2016
Past and projected growth of Australia’s older migrant populations
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-08-2020
DOI: 10.1186/S41118-020-00091-6
Abstract: In recent years, Australia’s older population (aged 65 and over) has been growing rapidly, accompanied by a shift in its country of birth composition. Although a great deal of research has been undertaken on past and current aspects of Australia’s migrant groups, little attention has been paid to future demographic trends in older populations. The aim of this paper is to examine recent and possible future demographic trends of Australia’s migrant populations at the older ages. We present population estimates by country and broad global region of birth from 1996 to 2016, and then new birthplace-specific population projections for the 2016 to 2056 period. Our findings show that substantial growth of the 65+ population will occur in the coming decades, and that the overseas-born will shift from a Europe-born dominance to an Asia-born dominance. Cohort flow (the effect of varying sizes of cohorts moving into the 65+ age group over time) will be the main driver of growth for most older birthplace populations. The shifting demography of Australia’s older population signals many policy, planning, service delivery and funding challenges for government and private sector providers. We discuss those related to aged care, health care, language services, the aged care workforce, regulatory frameworks and future research needs in demography and gerontology.
Ageing of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population: numerical, structural, timing and spatial aspects
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2020
Flexible regulation for dynamic products? The case of applying principles-based regulation to medical products using artificial intelligence
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 03-07-2022
Australia's Population Future: Probabilistic Forecasts Incorporating Expert Judgement
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 29-07-2011
Local area population projections dataset for Australia
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2022
Reconciliation of Australian Demographic Data to Study Immigrant Population Change Across Space and Time
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-2020
Modelling Age Patterns of Internal Migration at the Highest Ages
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-06-2020
The ageing of Asian migrant populations in Australia: projections and implications for aged care services
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 16-07-2022
Powered mobility aid access on public transport: A validation study of compliance with disability standards
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2021
The Sources and Diversity of Immigrant Population Change in Australia, 1981–2011
Publisher: Duke University Press
Date: 27-09-2018
DOI: 10.1007/S13524-018-0704-5
Abstract: Australia has one of the largest percentages of immigrant populations in the developed world with a highly regulated system of immigration control and regular censuses to track their changes over time. However, the ability to explain the population change through the demographic components of immigration, emigration, and death by age and sex is complicated because of differences in measurement and sources of information. In this article, we explore three methods for reconciling the demographic accounts from 1981 to 2011 for the Australia-born and 18 foreign-born population groups. We then describe how the immigrant populations have changed and what has contributed most to that change. We find that the sources of immigrant population change have varied considerably by age, sex, country of birth, and period of immigration. Immigrants from Europe are currently the oldest and slowest-growing populations, whereas those from elsewhere are growing rapidly and exhibit relatively young population age structures. Studying these patterns over time helps us to understand the nature of international migration and its long-term contributions to population change and composition.
Indigenous Australian population projections: Problems and prospects
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-03-2013
Visualizing Australian internal and international migration flows
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 2015
Recent developments in population projection methodology: a review
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 2005
DOI: 10.1002/PSP.389
Can international migration forecasting be improved? The case of Australia
Publisher: Centivens Institute of Innovative Research
Date: 05-2017
Abstract: In the first decade of the current century Australia experienced a huge increase in net international (overseas) migration. All demographic forecasts failed to predict this change. The aim of this paper is to assess past net overseas migration forecasts for Australia to quantify the extent of the forecasting challenge, and suggest ways in which improvements might be made. Official net overseas migration forecasts for the past four decades were assessed against subsequently published migration estimates. Mostly they proved highly inaccurate, both for in idual years and cumulatively over longer periods. It is suggested that: (1) greater use be made of a detailed migration data source which provides migration estimates by visa/citizenship category, and (2) a combined migration forecasting approach, which draws strength from several complementary methods, is developed. Progress in these two areas offers the potential to improve the accuracy and utility of Australia’s overseas migration forecasts.
Projections of Older European Migrant Populations in Australia, 2016–56
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 19-01-2023
Rogers A., Little J. and Raymer J.: The indirect estimation of migration: methods for dealing with irregular, inadequate and missing data
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-2010
The future growth and spatial shift of Australia's Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, 2016–2051
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-11-2020
DOI: 10.1002/PSP.2401
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