ORCID Profile
0000-0003-1492-4127
Current Organisation
University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
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Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 10-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017JC012887
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2016JC012597
Abstract: Coastal inundation is affected not only by rising mean sea level but also by changing tides. A numerical model is developed to investigate how sea level rise and coastline changes may impact tides in two coastal‐plain estuaries, Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay. Despite their different tidal characteristics, the two estuaries display similar responses to the sea level rise and shoreline management scenarios. When hypothetic sea walls are erected at the present coastline to prevent low‐lying land from flooding, tidal range increases, with greater lification in the upper part of the two estuaries. When low‐lying land is allowed to become permanently inundated by higher sea level, however, tidal range in both estuaries decreases. Analyses of the tidal energy budget show that the increased dissipation over the shallow water and newly inundated areas compensates for the reduced dissipation in deep water, leading to smaller tidal range. The changes in the tidal range are not proportional to the changes in the mean sea level, indicating a nonlinear tidal response to sea level rise. The ratio of tidal range change to sea level rise varies between −0.05 and 0.1 in Chesapeake Bay and between −0.2 and 0.25 in Delaware Bay. The model results suggest a potential adaptation strategy that uses inundation over low‐lying areas to reduce tidal range at up‐estuary locations.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 19-09-2017
Abstract: Through a case study of Hurricane Arthur (2014), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) are used to investigate the sensitivity of storm surge forecasts to physics parameterizations and configurations of the initial and boundary conditions in WRF. The turbulence closure scheme in the planetary boundary layer affects the prediction of the storm intensity: the local closure scheme produces lower equivalent potential temperature than the nonlocal closure schemes, leading to significant reductions in the maximum surface wind speed and surge heights. On the other hand, higher-class cloud microphysics schemes overpredict the wind speed, resulting in large overpredictions of storm surge at some coastal locations. Without cumulus parameterization in the outermost domain, both the wind speed and storm surge are grossly underpredicted as a result of large precipitation decreases in the storm center. None of the choices for the WRF physics parameterization schemes significantly affect the prediction of Arthur’s track. Sea surface temperature affects the latent heat release from the ocean surface and thus storm intensity and storm surge predictions. The large-scale atmospheric circulation models provide the initial and boundary conditions for WRF, and influence both the track and intensity predictions, thereby changing the spatial distribution of storm surge along the coastline. These sensitivity analyses underline the need to use an ensemble modeling approach to improve the storm surge forecasts.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United States of America
No related grants have been discovered for Ming Li.