ORCID Profile
0000-0002-9822-1586
Current Organisation
University of Oxford
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Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 12-05-2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.07.20094839
Abstract: New emerging infections have no known treatment. Assessing potential drugs for safety and efficacy enables clinicians to make evidence-based treatment decisions, and contributes to overall outbreak control. However, it is difficult to launch clinical trials in the unpredictable environment of an outbreak. We conducted a bibliometric systematic review for the 2009 influenza pandemic to determine the speed, and quality of evidence generation for treatments. This informs approaches to high-quality evidence generation in this and future pandemics. We searched PubMed for all clinical data (including clinical trial, observational and case series) describing treatment for patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and ClinicalTrials.gov for research that aimed to enrol patients with the disease. 33869 treatment courses for patients hospitalised with A(H1N1)pdm09 were detailed in 160 publications. Most were retrospective observational studies or case series. 592 patients received treatment (or placebo) as participants in a registered interventional clinical trial with results publicly available. None of these registered trial results were available during the timeframe of the pandemic, and the median date of publication was 213 days after the Public Health Emergency of International Concern ended. Patients were frequently treated for pandemic influenza with drugs not registered for this indication, but rarely under circumstances of high-quality data capture. The result was a reliance on use under compassionate circumstances, resulting in continued uncertainty regarding the potential benefits and harms of anti-viral treatment. Rapid scaling of clinical trials is critical for generating a quality evidence base during pandemics. Wellcome Trust.
Publisher: American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Date: 07-05-2014
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-06-2010
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 09-09-2016
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 27-08-2013
DOI: 10.1111/IRV.12079
Abstract: The World Health Organization has identified studies of the role of host genetics on susceptibility to severe influenza as a priority. A systematic review was conducted in June 2011 to summarise the evidence on the role of host genetics in susceptibility to influenza, and this report updates that previously published review. Animal studies suggest that genetic control of susceptibility to severe influenza in mice is complex and not controlled by a single locus, but there is encouraging evidence that some of the host genetic determinants of susceptibility to severe disease may be common across influenza subtypes. Although a number of studies on genetic susceptibility to influenza in humans have been published recently, all are underpowered and unreplicated, so do not provide robust statistical evidence of an association between the identified genetic loci and susceptibility. One study does however present convincing functional evidence for an important role for IFITM 3 in susceptibility to severe influenza in mice, and some evidence that this may also be important in human A/H1N1 dm2009 infection.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2017
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 20-03-2021
DOI: 10.1101/2021.03.20.436248
Abstract: The evolution of influenza viruses is fundamentally shaped by within-host processes. However, the within-host evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses remain incompletely understood, in part because most studies have focused on within-host virus ersity of infections in otherwise healthy adults based on single timepoint data. Here, we analysed the within-host evolution of 82 longitudinally-s led in iduals, mostly young children, infected with A/H3N2 or A/H1N1pdm09 viruses between 2007 and 2009. For A/H1N1pdm09 infections during the 2009 pandemic, nonsynonymous changes were common early in infection but decreased or remained constant throughout infection. For A/H3N2 viruses, early infection was dominated by purifying selection. However, as infections progressed, nonsynonymous variants increased in frequencies even though within-host virus titres decreased, leading to the maintenance of virus ersity via mutation-selection balance. Our findings suggest that this maintenance of genetic ersity in these children combined with their longer duration of infection may provide important opportunities for within-host virus evolution.
Publisher: eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
Date: 08-09-2014
DOI: 10.7554/ELIFE.04395
Abstract: Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976–2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 18-03-2010
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268810000518
Abstract: The apparent family clustering of avian influenza A/H5N1 has led several groups to postulate the existence of a host genetic influence on susceptibility to A/H5N1, yet the role of host factors on the risk of A/H5N1 disease has received remarkably little attention compared to the efforts focused on viral factors. We examined the epidemiological patterns of human A/H5N1 cases, their possible explanations, and the plausibility of a host genetic effect on susceptibility to A/H5N1 infection. The preponderance of familial clustering of cases and the relative lack of non-familial clusters, the occurrence of related cases separated by time and place, and the paucity of cases in some highly exposed groups such as poultry cullers, are consistent with a host genetic effect. Animal models support the biological plausibility of genetic susceptibility to A/H5N1. Although the evidence is circumstantial, host genetic factors are a parsimonious explanation for the unusual epidemiology of human A/H5N1 cases and warrant further investigation.
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 25-07-2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.17.20155218
Abstract: ISARIC (International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium) partnerships and outbreak preparedness initiatives enabled the rapid launch of standardised clinical data collection on COVID-19 in Jan 2020. Extensive global participation has resulted in a large, standardised collection of comprehensive clinical data from hundreds of sites across dozens of countries. Data are analysed regularly and reported publicly to inform patient care and public health response. This report, our 17th report, is a part of a series published over the past 2 years. Data have been entered for 800,459 in iduals from 1701 partner institutions and networks across 60 countries. The comprehensive analyses detailed in this report includes hospitalised in iduals of all ages for whom data collection occurred between 30 January 2020 and up to and including 5 January 2022, AND who have laboratory-confirmed SARS-COV-2 infection or clinically diagnosed COVID-19. For the 699,014 cases who meet eligibility criteria for this report, selected findings include: median age of 58 years, with an approximately equal (50/50) male:female sex distribution 29% of the cohort are at least 70 years of age, whereas 4% are 0-19 years of age the most common symptom combination in this hospitalised cohort is shortness of breath, cough, and history of fever, which has remained constant over time the five most common symptoms at admission were shortness of breath, cough, history of fever, fatigue/malaise, and altered consciousness/confusion, which is unchanged from the previous reports age-associated differences in symptoms are evident, including the frequency of altered consciousness increasing with age, and fever, respiratory and constitutional symptoms being present mostly in those 40 years and above 16% of patients with relevant data available were admitted at some point during their illness into an intensive care unit (ICU), which is slightly lower than previously reported (19%) antibiotic agents were used in 35% of patients for whom relevant data are available (669,630), a significant reduction from our previous reports (80%) which reflects a shifting proportion of data contributed by different institutions in ICU/HDU admitted patients with data available (50,560), 91% received antibiotics use of corticosteroids was reported in 24% of all patients for whom data were available (677,012) in ICU/HDU admitted patients with data available (50,646), 69% received corticosteroids outcomes are known for 632,518 patients and the overall estimated case fatality ratio (CFR) is 23.9% (95%CI 23.8-24.1), rising to 37.1% (95%CI 36.8-37.4) for patients who were admitted to ICU/HDU, demonstrating worse outcomes in those with the most severe disease To access previous versions of ISARIC COVID-19 Clinical Data Report please use the link below: esearch/covid-19-clinical-research-resources/evidence-reports/
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-09-2012
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-01-2013
DOI: 10.1111/IRV.12074
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 15-03-2012
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 2016
DOI: 10.1093/VE/VEW016
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 27-09-2022
DOI: 10.1101/2022.09.25.22280081
Abstract: Optimising statistical power in early-stage trials and observational studies accelerates discovery and improves the reliability of results. Ideally, intermediate outcomes should be continuously distributed and lie on the causal pathway between an intervention and a definitive outcome such as mortality. In order to optimise power for an intermediate outcome in the RECOVERY trial, we devised and evaluated a modification to a simple, pragmatic measure of oxygenation function - the S a O 2 / F I O 2 (S/F) ratio. We demonstrate that, because of the ceiling effect in oxyhaemoglobin saturation, S/F ceases to reflect pulmonary oxygenation function at high values of S a O 2 . Using synthetic and real data, we found that the correlation of S/F with a gold standard ( P a O 2 / F I O 2 , P/F ratio) improved substantially when measurements with S a O 2 ≥ 0.94 are excluded (Spearman r , synthetic data: S/F : 0.31 S/F 94 : 0.85). We refer to this measure as S/F 94 . In order to test the underlying assumptions and validity of S/F 94 as a predictor of a definitive outcome (mortality), we collected an observational dataset including over 39,000 hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in the ISARIC4C study. We first demonstrated that S/F 94 is predictive of mortality in COVID-19. We then compared the s le sizes required for trials using different outcome measures ( S/F 94 , the WHO ordinal scale, sustained improvement at day 28 and mortality at day 28) ensuring comparable effect sizes. The smallest s le size was needed when S/F 94 on day 5 was used as an outcome measure. To facilitate future study design, we provide an online user interface to quantify real-world power for a range of outcomes and inclusion criteria, using a synthetic dataset retaining the population-level clinical associations in real data accrued in ISARIC4C ndpoints . We demonstrated that S/F 94 is superior to S/F as a measure of pulmonary oxygenation function and is an effective intermediate outcome measure in COVID-19. It is a simple and non-invasive measurement, representative of disease severity and provides greater statistical power to detect treatment differences than other intermediate endpoints.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2014
Publisher: Environmental Health Perspectives
Date: 08-2013
DOI: 10.1289/EHP.1206001
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 25-09-2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.09.24.20200048
Abstract: The subset of patients who develop critical illness in Covid-19 have extensive inflammation affecting the lungs 1 and are strikingly different from other patients: immunosuppressive therapy benefits critically-ill patients, but may harm some non-critical cases. 2 Since susceptibility to life-threatening infections and immune-mediated diseases are both strongly heritable traits, we reasoned that host genetic variation may identify mechanistic targets for therapeutic development in Covid-19. 3 GenOMICC (Genetics Of Mortality In Critical Care, genomicc.org ) is a global collaborative study to understand the genetic basis of critical illness. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 2244 critically-ill Covid-19 patients from 208 UK intensive care units (ICUs), representing % of all ICU beds. Ancestry-matched controls were drawn from the UK Biobank population study and results were confirmed in GWAS comparisons with two other population control groups: the 100,000 genomes project and Generation Scotland. We identify and replicate three novel genome-wide significant associations, at chr19p13.3 (rs2109069, p = 3.98 × 10 −12 ), within the gene encoding dipeptidyl peptidase 9 ( DPP9 ), at chr12q24.13 (rs10735079, p =1.65 × 10 −8 ) in a gene cluster encoding antiviral restriction enzyme activators ( OAS1, OAS2, OAS3 ), and at chr21q22.1 (rs2236757, p = 4.99 × 10 −8 ) in the interferon receptor gene IFNAR2 . Consistent with our focus on extreme disease in younger patients with less comorbidity, we detect a stronger signal at the known 3p21.31 locus than previous studies (rs73064425, p = 4.77 × 10 −30 ). We identify potential targets for repurposing of licensed medications. Using Mendelian randomisation we found evidence in support of a causal link from low expression of IFNAR2 , and high expression of TYK2 , to life-threatening disease. Transcriptome-wide association in lung tissue revealed that high expression of the monocyte/macrophage chemotactic receptor CCR2 is associated with severe Covid-19. Our results identify robust genetic signals relating to key host antiviral defence mechanisms, and mediators of inflammatory organ damage in Covid-19. Both mechanisms may be amenable to targeted treatment with existing drugs. Large-scale randomised clinical trials will be essential before any change to clinical practice.
Publisher: American Society for Microbiology
Date: 15-07-2016
DOI: 10.1128/JVI.00093-16
Abstract: The discovery of influenza virus broadly neutralizing (BrN) antibodies prompted efforts to develop universal vaccines. Influenza virus stem-reactive (SR) broadly neutralizing antibodies have been detected by screening antibody phage display libraries. However, studies of SR BrN antibodies in human serum, and their association with natural infection, are limited. To address this, pre- and postpandemic sera from a prospective community cohort study in Vietnam were assessed for antibodies that inhibit SR BrN monoclonal antibody (MAb) (C179) binding to H1N1 pandemic 2009 virus (H1N1pdm09). Of 270 households, 33 with at least one confirmed H1N1pdm09 illness or at least two seroconverters were included. The included households comprised 71 infected and 41 noninfected participants. Sera were tested as 2-fold dilutions between 1:5 and 1:40. Fifty percent C179 inhibition (IC 50 ) titers did not exceed 10, although both IC 50 titers and percent C179 inhibition by sera diluted 1:5 or 1:10 correlated with hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and microneutralization (MN) titers (all P 0.001). Thirteen (12%) participants had detectable prepandemic IC 50 titers, but only one reached a titer of 10. This proportion increased to 44% after the pandemic, when 39 participants had a titer of 10, and 67% of infected compared to 44% of noninfected had detectable IC 50 titers ( P 0.001). The low levels of SR antibodies in prepandemic sera were not associated with subsequent H1N1pdm09 infection ( P = 0.241), and the higher levels induced by H1N1pdm09 infection returned to prepandemic levels within 2 years. The findings indicate that natural infection induces only low titers of SR antibodies that are not sustained. IMPORTANCE Universal influenza vaccines could have substantial health and economic benefits. The focus of universal vaccine research has been to induce antibodies that prevent infection by erse influenza virus strains. These so-called broadly neutralizing antibodies are readily detected in mice and ferrets after infection with a series of distinct influenza virus strains. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic provided an opportunity to investigate whether infection with a novel strain induced broadly neutralizing antibodies in humans. We found that broadly neutralizing antibodies were induced, but levels were low and poorly maintained. This could represent an obstacle for universal vaccine development and warrants further investigation.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 17-10-2017
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268817002333
Abstract: Strongyloidiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by the roundworm Strongyloides stercoralis affecting 30–100 million people worldwide. Many Southeast-Asian countries report a high prevalence of S. stercoralis infection, but there are little data from Vietnam. Here, we evaluated the seroprevalence of S. stercoralis related to geography, sex and age in Vietnam through serological testing of anonymized sera. Sera ( n = 1710, 1340 adults and 270 children) from an anonymized age-stratified serum bank from four regions in Vietnam between 2012 and 2013 were tested using a commercial Strongyloides ratti immunoglobulin G ELISA. Seroreactivity was found in 29·1% (390/1340) of adults and 5·5% (15/270) of children. Male adults were more frequently seroreactive than females (33·3% vs. 24·9%, P = 0·001). The rural central highlands had the highest seroprevalence (42·4% of adults). Seroreactivity in the other regions was 29·9% (Hue) and 26·0% and 18·2% in the large urban centres of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, respectively. We conclude that seroprevalence of S. stercoralis was high in the Vietnamese adult population, especially in rural areas.
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 06-09-2012
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 09-12-2004
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268804003401
Abstract: Culture for Bordetella pertussis ( B. pertussis ) is the traditional gold standard for laboratory diagnosis of pertussis but is insensitive, especially later in the course of illness and in vaccinated persons. Interpretation of serology is limited by the lack of an appropriate reference standard. An outbreak of pertussis in a crowded boarding-school dormitory allowed evaluation of laboratory correlates of infection. Questionnaires, serum s les and throat swabs were collected from members of the exposed group. Serum s les from unexposed controls of a similar age group were used for comparison. B. pertussis PCR was performed on throat swabs, and sera were tested for IgA antibodies against whole-cell (WC) B. pertussis antigen and IgG antibodies to pertussis toxin (PT). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention definition for pertussis was used to define clinical cases. We evaluated the use of a previously published cut-off for PT IgG of 125 EIA units (EU)/ml. Completed questionnaires were obtained from 115 students, of whom 85 (74%) reported coughing symptoms, including 32 (28%) who met the clinical case definition for pertussis. B. pertussis was detected by PCR in 17 (15%) and WC IgA in 22 (19%) students neither correlated with symptoms, but dormitory of residence strongly predicted PCR status. The mean PT IgG geometric mean concentration, in this situation of high pertussis exposure, correlated with severity of symptoms and was significantly higher in both symptomatic and asymptomatic children exposed during the outbreak ( P ·001) than in control children. A cut-off for PT IgG of 125 EU/ml was too high in an outbreak situation to be sensitive enough to identify pertussis cases. A case of pertussis in a crowded boarding-school dormitory resulted rapidly in an outbreak. Serology and PCR were useful in identifying the outbreak and commencing disease control measures. The use of serology has mostly been evaluated in community serosurveys, where it is not possible to determine if immunity reflects vaccination, asymptomatic disease or symptomatic disease. This outbreak gave us the opportunity to evaluate the value of serology and PCR in the presence of confirmed exposure to pertussis.
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 02-09-2021
DOI: 10.1101/2021.09.02.21262965
Abstract: Critical illness in COVID-19 is caused by inflammatory lung injury, mediated by the host immune system. We and others have shown that host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care 1 or hospitalisation 2 4 following SARS-Co-V2 infection. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study recruits critically-ill cases and compares their genomes with population controls in order to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here, we use whole genome sequencing and statistical fine mapping in 7,491 critically-ill cases compared with 48,400 population controls to discover and replicate 22 independent variants that significantly predispose to life-threatening COVID-19. We identify 15 new independent associations with critical COVID-19, including variants within genes involved in interferon signalling ( IL10RB, PLSCR1 ), leucocyte differentiation ( BCL11A ), and blood type antigen secretor status ( FUT2 ). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalisation to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence implicating expression of multiple genes, including reduced expression of a membrane flippase ( ATP11A ), and increased mucin expression ( MUC1 ), in critical disease. We show that comparison between critically-ill cases and population controls is highly efficient for genetic association analysis and enables detection of therapeutically-relevant mechanisms of disease. Therapeutic predictions arising from these findings require testing in clinical trials.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2016
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 03-2011
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 28-02-2023
DOI: 10.1093/IJE/DYAD012
Abstract: We describe demographic features, treatments and clinical outcomes in the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) COVID-19 cohort, one of the world's largest international, standardized data sets concerning hospitalized patients. The data set analysed includes COVID-19 patients hospitalized between January 2020 and January 2022 in 52 countries. We investigated how symptoms on admission, co-morbidities, risk factors and treatments varied by age, sex and other characteristics. We used Cox regression models to investigate associations between demographics, symptoms, co-morbidities and other factors with risk of death, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Data were available for 689 572 patients with laboratory-confirmed (91.1%) or clinically diagnosed (8.9%) SARS-CoV-2 infection from 52 countries. Age [adjusted hazard ratio per 10 years 1.49 (95% CI 1.48, 1.49)] and male sex [1.23 (1.21, 1.24)] were associated with a higher risk of death. Rates of admission to an ICU and use of IMV increased with age up to age 60 years then dropped. Symptoms, co-morbidities and treatments varied by age and had varied associations with clinical outcomes. The case-fatality ratio varied by country partly due to differences in the clinical characteristics of recruited patients and was on average 21.5%. Age was the strongest determinant of risk of death, with a ∼30-fold difference between the oldest and youngest groups each of the co-morbidities included was associated with up to an almost 2-fold increase in risk. Smoking and obesity were also associated with a higher risk of death. The size of our international database and the standardized data collection method make this study a comprehensive international description of COVID-19 clinical features. Our findings may inform strategies that involve prioritization of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 who have a higher risk of death.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 12-03-2015
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268815000187
Abstract: A reassortant swine-origin A(H3N2) virus (A/swine/BinhDuong/03-9/2010) was detected through swine surveillance programmes in southern Vietnam in 2010. This virus contains haemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes from a human A(H3N2) virus circulating around 2004–2006, and the internal genes from triple-reassortant swine influenza A viruses (IAVs). To assess population susceptibility to this virus we measured haemagglutination inhibiting (HI) titres to A/swine/BinhDuong/03-9/2010 and to seasonal A/Perth/16/2009 for 947 sera collected from urban and rural Vietnamese people during 2011–2012. Seroprevalence (HI ⩾ 40) was high and similar for both viruses, with 62·6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 59·4–65·7] against A/Perth/16/2009 and 54·6% (95% CI 51·4–57·8%) against A/swine/BinhDuong/03-9/2010, and no significant differences between urban and rural participants. Children aged years lacked antibodies to the swine origin H3 virus despite high seroprevalence for A/Perth/16/2009. These results reveal vulnerability to infection to this contemporary swine IAV in children aged years however, cross-reactive immunity in adults would likely limit epidemic emergence potential.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Peter Horby.