ORCID Profile
0000-0003-2400-0630
Current Organisation
University of Southampton
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Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 19-05-2020
Abstract: Abstract. Information about the spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture is critical for many purposes, including monitoring of hydrologic extremes, irrigation scheduling, and prediction of agricultural yields. We evaluated the temporal dynamics of 18 state-of-the-art (quasi-)global near-surface soil moisture products, including six based on satellite retrievals, six based on models without satellite data assimilation (referred to hereafter as open-loop models), and six based on models that assimilate satellite soil moisture or brightness temperature data. Seven of the products are introduced for the first time in this study: one multi-sensor merged satellite product called MeMo and six estimates from the HBV model with three precipitation inputs (ERA5, IMERG, and MSWEP) and with and without assimilation of SMAPL3E satellite retrievals, respectively. As reference, we used in situ soil moisture measurements between 2015 and 2019 at 5-cm depth from 826 sensors, located primarily in the USA and Europe. The 3-hourly Pearson correlation (R) was chosen as the primary performance metric. The median R ± interquartile range across all sites and products in each category was 0.66 ± 0.30 for the satellite products, 0.69 ± 0.25 for the open-loop models, and 0.72 ± 0.22 for the models with satellite data assimilation. The best-to-worst performance ranking of the four single-sensor satellite products was SMAPL3E, SMOS, AMSR2, and ASCAT, with the L-band-based SMAPL3E (median R of 0.72) outperforming the others at 50 % of the sites. Among the two multi-sensor satellite products (MeMo and ESA-CCI), MeMo performed better on average (median R of 0.72 versus 0.67), mainly due to the inclusion of SMAPL3E. The best-to-worst performance ranking of the six open-loop models was HBV-MSWEP, HBV-ERA5, ERA5-Land, HBV-IMERG, VIC-PGF, and GLDAS-Noah. This ranking largely reflects the quality of the precipitation forcing. HBV-MSWEP (median R of 0.78) performed best not just among the open-loop models but among all products. The calibration of HBV improved the median R by +0.12 on average compared to random parameters, highlighting the importance of model calibration. The best-to-worst performance ranking of the six models with satellite data assimilation was HBV-MSWEP+SMAPL3E, HBV-ERA5+SMAPL3E, GLEAM, SMAPL4, HBV-IMERG+SMAPL3E, and ERA5. The assimilation of SMAPL3E retrievals into HBV-IMERG improved the median R by +0.06, suggesting that data assimilation yields significant benefits at the global scale.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 10-2013
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-17-3707-2013
Abstract: Abstract. Land evapotranspiration (ET) estimates are available from several global data sets. Here, monthly global land ET synthesis products, merged from these in idual data sets over the time periods 1989–1995 (7 yr) and 1989–2005 (17 yr), are presented. The merged synthesis products over the shorter period are based on a total of 40 distinct data sets while those over the longer period are based on a total of 14 data sets. In the in idual data sets, ET is derived from satellite and/or in situ observations (diagnostic data sets) or calculated via land-surface models (LSMs) driven with observations-based forcing or output from atmospheric reanalyses. Statistics for four merged synthesis products are provided, one including all data sets and three including only data sets from one category each (diagnostic, LSMs, and reanalyses). The multi-annual variations of ET in the merged synthesis products display realistic responses. They are also consistent with previous findings of a global increase in ET between 1989 and 1997 (0.13 mm yr−2 in our merged product) followed by a significant decrease in this trend (−0.18 mm yr−2), although these trends are relatively small compared to the uncertainty of absolute ET values. The global mean ET from the merged synthesis products (based on all data sets) is 493 mm yr−1 (1.35 mm d−1) for both the 1989–1995 and 1989–2005 products, which is relatively low compared to previously published estimates. We estimate global runoff (precipitation minus ET) to 263 mm yr−1 (34 406 km3 yr−1) for a total land area of 130 922 000 km2. Precipitation, being an important driving factor and input to most simulated ET data sets, presents uncertainties between single data sets as large as those in the ET estimates. In order to reduce uncertainties in current ET products, improving the accuracy of the input variables, especially precipitation, as well as the parameterizations of ET, are crucial.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-2012
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE11575
Abstract: Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future as a result of climate change, mainly as a consequence of decreases in regional precipitation but also because of increasing evaporation driven by global warming. Previous assessments of historic changes in drought over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries indicate that this may already be happening globally. In particular, calculations of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) show a decrease in moisture globally since the 1970s with a commensurate increase in the area in drought that is attributed, in part, to global warming. The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change. Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data erge from the PDSI-based drought record in recent years.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-12-2020
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 04-01-2021
Abstract: Abstract. Information about the spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture is critical for many purposes, including monitoring of hydrologic extremes, irrigation scheduling, and prediction of agricultural yields. We evaluated the temporal dynamics of 18 state-of-the-art (quasi-)global near-surface soil moisture products, including six based on satellite retrievals, six based on models without satellite data assimilation (referred to hereafter as “open-loop” models), and six based on models that assimilate satellite soil moisture or brightness temperature data. Seven of the products are introduced for the first time in this study: one multi-sensor merged satellite product called MeMo (Merged soil Moisture) and six estimates from the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) model with three precipitation inputs (ERA5, IMERG, and MSWEP) with and without assimilation of SMAPL3E satellite retrievals, respectively. As reference, we used in situ soil moisture measurements between 2015 and 2019 at 5 cm depth from 826 sensors, located primarily in the USA and Europe. The 3-hourly Pearson correlation (R) was chosen as the primary performance metric. We found that application of the Soil Wetness Index (SWI) smoothing filter resulted in improved performance for all satellite products. The best-to-worst performance ranking of the four single-sensor satellite products was SMAPL3ESWI, SMOSSWI, AMSR2SWI, and ASCATSWI, with the L-band-based SMAPL3ESWI (median R of 0.72) outperforming the others at 50 % of the sites. Among the two multi-sensor satellite products (MeMo and ESA-CCISWI), MeMo performed better on average (median R of 0.72 versus 0.67), probably due to the inclusion of SMAPL3ESWI. The best-to-worst performance ranking of the six open-loop models was HBV-MSWEP, HBV-ERA5, ERA5-Land, HBV-IMERG, VIC-PGF, and GLDAS-Noah. This ranking largely reflects the quality of the precipitation forcing. HBV-MSWEP (median R of 0.78) performed best not just among the open-loop models but among all products. The calibration of HBV improved the median R by +0.12 on average compared to random parameters, highlighting the importance of model calibration. The best-to-worst performance ranking of the six models with satellite data assimilation was HBV-MSWEP+SMAPL3E, HBV-ERA5+SMAPL3E, GLEAM, SMAPL4, HBV-IMERG+SMAPL3E, and ERA5. The assimilation of SMAPL3E retrievals into HBV-IMERG improved the median R by +0.06, suggesting that data assimilation yields significant benefits at the global scale.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 24-08-2016
Abstract: Abstract. The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of land surface, snow and soil moisture feedbacks on climate variability and climate change, and to diagnose systematic biases in the land modules of current Earth system models (ESMs). The solid and liquid water stored at the land surface has a large influence on the regional climate, its variability and predictability, including effects on the energy, water and carbon cycles. Notably, snow and soil moisture affect surface radiation and flux partitioning properties, moisture storage and land surface memory. They both strongly affect atmospheric conditions, in particular surface air temperature and precipitation, but also large-scale circulation patterns. However, models show ergent responses and representations of these feedbacks as well as systematic biases in the underlying processes. LS3MIP will provide the means to quantify the associated uncertainties and better constrain climate change projections, which is of particular interest for highly vulnerable regions (densely populated areas, agricultural regions, the Arctic, semi-arid and other sensitive terrestrial ecosystems). The experiments are sub ided in two components, the first addressing systematic land biases in offline mode (“LMIP”, building upon the 3rd phase of Global Soil Wetness Project GSWP3) and the second addressing land feedbacks attributed to soil moisture and snow in an integrated framework (“LFMIP”, building upon the GLACE-CMIP blueprint).
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 08-09-2016
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-20-3631-2016
Abstract: Abstract. In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes. Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and hydrological drought development. We give recommendations for robust drought definitions to clarify timescales of drought and prevent confusion with related terms such as water scarcity and overexploitation. Additionally, our understanding and analysis of drought need to move from single driver to multiple drivers and from uni-directional to multi-directional. We identify research gaps and propose analysis approaches on (1) drivers, (2) modifiers, (3) impacts, (4) feedbacks, and (5) changing the baseline of drought in the Anthropocene. The most pressing research questions are related to the attribution of drought to its causes, to linking drought impacts to drought characteristics, and to societal adaptation and responses to drought. Ex le questions include (i) What are the dominant drivers of drought in different parts of the world? (ii) How do human modifications of drought enhance or alleviate drought severity? (iii) How do impacts of drought depend on the physical characteristics of drought vs. the vulnerability of people or the environment? (iv) To what extent are physical and human drought processes coupled, and can feedback loops be identified and altered to lessen or mitigate drought? (v) How should we adapt our drought analysis to accommodate changes in the normal situation (i.e. what are considered normal or reference conditions) over time? Answering these questions requires exploration of qualitative and quantitative data as well as mixed modelling approaches. The challenges related to drought research and management in the Anthropocene are not unique to drought, but do require urgent attention. We give recommendations drawn from the fields of flood research, ecology, water management, and water resources studies. The framework presented here provides a holistic view on drought in the Anthropocene, which will help improve management strategies for mitigating the severity and reducing the impacts of droughts in future.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-03-2021
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 11-04-2016
DOI: 10.5194/GMD-2016-72
Abstract: Abstract. The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of land surface, snow, and soil moisture feedbacks on climate variability and climate change, and to diagnose systematic biases in the land modules of current Earth System Models (ESMs). The solid and liquid water stored at the land surface has a large influence on the regional climate, its variability and predictability, including effects on the energy, water and carbon cycles. Notably, snow and soil moisture affect surface radiation and flux partitioning properties, moisture storage and land surface memory. They both strongly affect atmospheric conditions, in particular surface air temperature and precipitation, but also large-scale circulation patterns. However, models show ergent responses and representations of these feedbacks as well as systematic biases in the underlying processes. LS3MIP will provide the means to quantify the associated uncertainties and better constrain climate change projections, which is of particular interest for highly vulnerable regions (densely populated areas, agricultural regions, the Arctic, semi-arid and other sensitive terrestrial ecosystems). The experiments are sub ided in two components, the first addressing systematic land biases in offline mode ("LMIP", building upon the 3rd phase of Global Soil Wetness Project GSWP3) and the second addressing land feedbacks attributed to soil moisture and snow in an integrated framework ("LFMIP", building upon the GLACE-CMIP blueprint).
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-04-2009
DOI: 10.1029/2009GL037338
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2022
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 19-06-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Historical in situ sub-daily rainfall observations are essential for the understanding of short-duration rainfall extremes but records are typically not readily accessible and data are often subject to errors and inhomogeneities. Furthermore, these events are poorly quantified in projections of future climate change making adaptation to the risk of flash flooding problematic. Consequently, knowledge of the processes contributing to intense, short-duration rainfall is less complete compared with those on daily timescales. The INTENSE project is addressing this global challenge by undertaking a data collection initiative that is coupled with advances in high-resolution climate modelling to better understand key processes and likely future change. The project has so far acquired data from over 23 000 rain gauges for its global sub-daily rainfall dataset (GSDR) and has provided evidence of an intensification of hourly extremes over the US. Studies of these observations, combined with model simulations, will continue to advance our understanding of the role of local-scale thermodynamics and large-scale atmospheric circulation in the generation of these events and how these might change in the future.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2020
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 20-01-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2010JD014545
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 30-05-2022
DOI: 10.5194/ISPRS-ARCHIVES-XLIII-B3-2022-1045-2022
Abstract: Abstract. Predicting within-field crop yield early in the season can help address crop production challenges to improve farmers’ economic return. While yield prediction with remote sensing has been a research aim for years, it is only recently that observations with the suited spatial and temporal resolutions have become accessible to improve crop yield predictions.Here we developed a yield prediction framework that integrates daily high-resolution (3 m) CubeSat imagery into the APSIM crop model. The approach trains a regression model that correlates simulated yield to simulated leaf area index (LAI) from APSIM. That relationship is then employed to determine the optimum date at which the regression best predicts yield from the LAI. Additionally, our approach can forecast crop yield by utilizing a particle filter to assimilate CubeSat-based LAI in the model APSIM to generate yield maps at 3 m several weeks before the optimum regression date. Our method was evaluated for a rainfed site located in the US Corn belt, using a collection of spatially varying yield data. The proposed approach does not need in situ data to rain the regression, with outcomes reporting that even with a single assimilation step, accurate yield predictions were provided up to 21 days before the optimum regression date. The spatial variability of crop yield was reproduced fairly well, with a good correlation against in situ measurements (R2 = 0.73 and RMSE = 1.69), demonstrating that high-resolution yield predictions early in the season have great potential to meet and improve upon digital agricultural goals.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2646
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 31-05-2016
Abstract: Abstract. In the current human-modified world, or "Anthropocene", the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes. Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and hydrological drought development. We give recommendations for robust drought definitions to clarify timescales of drought and prevent confusion with related terms such as water scarcity and overexploitation. Additionally, our understanding and analysis of drought need to move from single driver to multiple drivers and from uni-directional to multi-directional. We identify research gaps and propose analysis approaches on (1) drivers, (2) modifiers, (3) impacts, (4) feedbacks, and (5) changing baseline of drought in the Anthropocene. The most pressing research questions are related to the attribution of drought to its causes, to linking drought impacts to drought characteristics, and to societal adaptation and responses to drought. Ex le questions include: (i) what are the dominant drivers of drought in different parts of the world?, (ii) how do human modifications of drought enhance or alleviate drought severity?, (iii) how do impacts of drought depend on the physical characteristics of drought versus the vulnerability of people or the environment?, (iv) to what extent are physical and human drought processes coupled, and can feedback loops be identified and altered to lessen or mitigate drought?, (v) how should we adapt our drought analysis to accommodate "changes in the norm" (i.e. what are considered normal conditions) over time? Answering these questions requires exploration of qualitative and quantitative data as well as mixed modelling approaches. The challenges related to drought research and management in the Anthropocene are not unique to drought, but do require urgent attention. We give recommendations drawn from the fields of flood research, ecology, water management, and water resources studies. The framework presented here provides a holistic view on drought in the Anthropocene, which will help improve management strategies for mitigating the severity and reducing the impacts of droughts in future.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 04-03-2021
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU21-12357
Abstract: & & Assimilating biophysical metrics from remote sensing platforms into crop-yield forecasting models can increase overall model performance. Recent advances in remote sensing technologies provide an unprecedented resource for Earth observation that has both, spatial and temporal resolutions appropriate for precision agriculture applications. Furthermore, computationally efficient assimilation techniques can integrate these new satellite-derived products into modeling frameworks. To date, such modeling approaches work at the regional scale, with comparatively few studies examining the integration of remote sensing and crop-yield modeling at intra-field resolutions. In this study, we investigate the potential of assimilating daily, 3 m satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) into the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) for crop yield estimation in a rainfed corn field located in Nebraska. The impact of the number of satellite images and the definition of homogeneous spatial units required to re-initialize input parameters was also evaluated. Results show that the observed spatial variability of LAI within the maize field can effectively drive the crop simulation model and enhance yield forecasting that takes into account intra-field variability. The detection of intra-field biophysical metrics is particularly valuable since it may be employed to infer inefficiency problems at different stages of the season, and hence drive specific and localized management decisions for improving the final crop yield.& &
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 19-05-2020
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2013
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00593.1
Abstract: This is the second part of a three-part paper on North American climate in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that evaluates the twentieth-century simulations of intraseasonal to multidecadal variability and teleconnections with North American climate. Overall, the multimodel ensemble does reasonably well at reproducing observed variability in several aspects, but it does less well at capturing observed teleconnections, with implications for future projections examined in part three of this paper. In terms of intraseasonal variability, almost half of the models examined can reproduce observed variability in the eastern Pacific and most models capture the midsummer drought over Central America. The multimodel mean replicates the density of traveling tropical synoptic-scale disturbances but with large spread among the models. On the other hand, the coarse resolution of the models means that tropical cyclone frequencies are underpredicted in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific. The frequency and mean litude of ENSO are generally well reproduced, although teleconnections with North American climate are widely varying among models and only a few models can reproduce the east and central Pacific types of ENSO and connections with U.S. winter temperatures. The models capture the spatial pattern of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) variability and its influence on continental temperature and West Coast precipitation but less well for the wintertime precipitation. The spatial representation of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is reasonable, but the magnitude of SST anomalies and teleconnections are poorly reproduced. Multidecadal trends such as the warming hole over the central–southeastern United States and precipitation increases are not replicated by the models, suggesting that observed changes are linked to natural variability.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2008
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2021
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2010GL046230
Publisher: CRC Press
Date: 02-10-2013
DOI: 10.1201/B15610-15
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2022
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-2013
DOI: 10.1002/WRCR.20251
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 06-2013
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00176.1
Abstract: Drought is a global problem that has far-reaching impacts, especially on vulnerable populations in developing regions. This paper highlights the need for a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), the elements that constitute its underlying framework (GDEWF), and the recent progress made toward its development. Many countries lack drought monitoring systems, as well as the capacity to respond via appropriate political, institutional, and technological frameworks, and these have inhibited the development of integrated drought management plans or early warning systems. The GDEWS will provide a source of drought tools and products via the GDEWF for countries and regions to develop tailored drought early warning systems for their own users. A key goal of a GDEWS is to maximize the lead time for early warning, allowing drought managers and disaster coordinators more time to put mitigation measures in place to reduce the vulnerability to drought. To address this, the GDEWF will take both a top-down approach to provide global realtime drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting, and a bottom-up approach that builds upon existing national and regional systems to provide continental-to-global coverage. A number of challenges must be overcome, however, before a GDEWS can become a reality, including the lack of in situ measurement networks and modest seasonal forecast skill in many regions, and the lack of infrastructure to translate data into useable information. A set of international partners, through a series of recent workshops and evolving collaborations, has made progress toward meeting these challenges and developing a global system.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Justin Sheffield.