ORCID Profile
0000-0001-6647-5453
Current Organisations
University of the Philippines Manila - National Institutes of Health
,
University of the Philippines Diliman
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Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2023
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 12-2020
DOI: 10.1136/BMJGH-2020-003126
Abstract: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on multiple levels of society. Not only has the pandemic completely overwhelmed some health systems but it has also changed how scientific evidence is shared and increased the pace at which such evidence is published and consumed, by scientists, policymakers and the wider public. More significantly, the pandemic has created tremendous challenges for decision-makers, who have had to implement highly disruptive containment measures with very little empirical scientific evidence to support their decision-making process. Given this lack of data, predictive mathematical models have played an increasingly prominent role. In high-income countries, there is a long-standing history of established research groups advising policymakers, whereas a general lack of translational capacity has meant that mathematical models frequently remain inaccessible to policymakers in low-income and middle-income countries. Here, we describe a participatory approach to modelling that aims to circumvent this gap. Our approach involved the creation of an international group of infectious disease modellers and other public health experts, which culminated in the establishment of the COVID-19 Modelling (CoMo) Consortium. Here, we describe how the consortium was formed, the way it functions, the mathematical model used and, crucially, the high degree of engagement fostered between CoMo Consortium members and their respective local policymakers and ministries of health.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2023
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-02-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-021-21134-2
Abstract: Dexamethasone can reduce mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients needing oxygen and ventilation by 18% and 36%, respectively. Here, we estimate the potential number of lives saved and life years gained if this treatment were to be rolled out in the UK and globally, as well as the cost-effectiveness of implementing this intervention. Assuming SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels of 5% to 15%, we estimate that, for the UK, approximately 12,000 (4,250 - 27,000) lives could be saved between July and December 2020. Assuming that dexamethasone has a similar effect size in settings where access to oxygen therapies is limited, this would translate into approximately 650,000 (240,000 - 1,400,000) lives saved globally over the same time period. If dexamethasone acts differently in these settings, the impact could be less than half of this value. To estimate the full potential of dexamethasone in the global fight against COVID-19, it is essential to perform clinical research in settings with limited access to oxygen and/or ventilators, for ex le in low- and middle-income countries.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 11-07-2023
DOI: 10.1111/ALL.15807
Abstract: Asthma and atopic dermatitis (AD) are chronic allergic conditions, along with allergic rhinitis and food allergy and cause high morbidity and mortality both in children and adults. This study aims to evaluate the global, regional, national, and temporal trends of the burden of asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019 and analyze their associations with geographic, demographic, social, and clinical factors. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we assessed the age‐standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) of both asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019, stratified by geographic region, age, sex, and socio‐demographic index (SDI). DALYs were calculated as the sum of years lived with disability and years of life lost to premature mortality. Additionally, the disease burden of asthma attributable to high body mass index, occupational asthmagens, and smoking was described. In 2019, there were a total of 262 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 224–309 million] cases of asthma and 171 million [95% UI: 165–178 million] total cases of AD globally age‐standardized prevalence rates were 3416 [95% UI: 2899–4066] and 2277 [95% UI: 2192–2369] per 100,000 population for asthma and AD, respectively, a 24.1% [95% UI: −27.2 to −20.8] decrease for asthma and a 4.3% [95% UI: 3.8–4.8] decrease for AD compared to baseline in 1990. Both asthma and AD had similar trends according to age, with age‐specific prevalence rates peaking at age 5–9 years and rising again in adulthood. The prevalence and incidence of asthma and AD were both higher for in iduals with higher SDI however, mortality and DALYs rates of in iduals with asthma had a reverse trend, with higher mortality and DALYs rates in those in the lower SDI quintiles. Of the three risk factors, high body mass index contributed to the highest DALYs and deaths due to asthma, accounting for a total of 3.65 million [95% UI: 2.14–5.60 million] asthma DALYs and 75,377 [95% UI: 40,615–122,841] asthma deaths. Asthma and AD continue to cause significant morbidity worldwide, having increased in total prevalence and incidence cases worldwide, but having decreased in age‐standardized prevalence rates from 1990 to 2019. Although both are more frequent at younger ages and more prevalent in high‐SDI countries, each condition has distinct temporal and regional characteristics. Understanding the temporospatial trends in the disease burden of asthma and AD could guide future policies and interventions to better manage these diseases worldwide and achieve equity in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-05-2023
DOI: 10.1186/S41182-023-00523-X
Abstract: Dengue remains a major public health problem in the Philippines, particularly in urban areas of the National Capital Region. Thematic mapping using geographic information systems complemented by spatial analysis such as cluster analysis and hot spot detection can provide useful information to guide preventive measures and control strategies against dengue. Hence, this study was aimed to describe the spatiotemporal distribution of dengue incidence and identify dengue hot spots by barangay using reported cases from Quezon City, the Philippines from 2010 to 2017. Reported dengue case data at barangay level from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2017 were obtained from the Quezon City Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit. The annual incidence rate of dengue from 2010 to 2017, expressed as the total number of dengue cases per 10,000 population in each year, was calculated for each barangay . Thematic mapping, global cluster analysis, and hot spot analysis were performed using ArcGIS 10.3.1. The number of reported dengue cases and their spatial distribution varied highly between years. Local clusters were evident during the study period. Eighteen barangays were identified as hot spots. Considering the spatial heterogeneity and instability of hot spots in Quezon City across years, efforts towards the containment of dengue can be made more targeted, and efficient with the application of hot spot analysis in routine surveillance. This may be useful not only for the control of dengue but also for other diseases, and for public health planning, monitoring, and evaluation.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-03-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-021-22038-X
Abstract: A Correction to this paper has been published: 0.1038/s41467-021-22038-x.
Location: Philippines
Location: Philippines
Location: Philippines
Location: Philippines
Location: Philippines
No related grants have been discovered for John Robert Medina.