ORCID Profile
0000-0003-3978-1134
Current Organisations
Ain Shams University Faculty of Science
,
University of Kansas
,
Ain Shams University
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Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2017
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 06-02-2019
DOI: 10.1136/BMJ.L94
Abstract: To use the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 to describe patterns of suicide mortality globally, regionally, and for 195 countries and territories by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index, and to describe temporal trends between 1990 and 2016. Systematic analysis. Crude and age standardised rates from suicide mortality and years of life lost were compared across regions and countries, and by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index (a composite measure of fertility, income, and education). The total number of deaths from suicide increased by 6.7% (95% uncertainty interval 0.4% to 15.6%) globally over the 27 year study period to 817 000 (762 000 to 884 000) deaths in 2016. However, the age standardised mortality rate for suicide decreased by 32.7% (27.2% to 36.6%) worldwide between 1990 and 2016, similar to the decline in the global age standardised mortality rate of 30.6%. Suicide was the leading cause of age standardised years of life lost in the Global Burden of Disease region of high income Asia Pacific and was among the top 10 leading causes in eastern Europe, central Europe, western Europe, central Asia, Australasia, southern Latin America, and high income North America. Rates for men were higher than for women across regions, countries, and age groups, except for the 15 to 19 age group. There was variation in the female to male ratio, with higher ratios at lower levels of Socio-demographic index. Women experienced greater decreases in mortality rates (49.0%, 95% uncertainty interval 42.6% to 54.6%) than men (23.8%, 15.6% to 32.7%). Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide. Suicide mortality was variable across locations, between sexes, and between age groups. Suicide prevention strategies can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortality rates.
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 16-03-2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.12.20034975
Abstract: Increasing rate of unnecessary caesarean section (CS) is now reported worldwide that intensified the occurrence of adverse health outcomes for mother-child dyads. We investigated the association of CS with some basic health and behaviour outcomes of the mother-child dyads in Bangladesh. We conducted a community based case-control study from May to August 2019. Total of 600 (300 had CS, and 300 had vaginal delivery (VD)) mother-child dyads were interviewed through a structured questionnaire. Method of delivery was the exposure variable classified as CS and VD. The outcome variables were a group of health and behaviour problems of the mothers and their children. A series of binary logistic regression models were carried out to examine the effects of the exposure variable on outcome variables. Mother’s socio-demographic and reproductive characteristics were adjusted in the models. The mean maternal age (±SD) and weight were 25.1 (±5.2) years and 53.1 (±7.2) kilogram, respectively. Higher likelihood of headache, after delivery hip pain, problem of daily activities, and breastfeeding problem were reported among mother had CS in their last birth than VD. Children born through the CS were reported a higher likelihood of breathing problem and frequent illness and a lower likelihood of food demand and sleeping. The occurrence of CS increases the risk of health and behaviour problems among mothers and their children. This suggests the need for polices to avoid unnecessary CS and to increase awareness of adverse effects of CS. Frequent health checkup following CS is also important.
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 20-02-2020
DOI: 10.1136/INJURYPREV-2019-043484
Abstract: Drowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study’s objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017. Unintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning. Globally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes. There has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2022
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2023
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2022
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-12-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-022-34240-6
Abstract: Despite substantial declines since 2000, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria remain among the leading causes of nonfatal and fatal disease burden for children under 5 years of age (under 5), primarily in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The spatial burden of each of these diseases has been estimated subnationally across SSA, yet no prior analyses have examined the pattern of their combined burden. Here we synthesise subnational estimates of the burden of LRIs, diarrhoea, and malaria in children under-5 from 2000 to 2017 for 43 sub-Saharan countries. Some units faced a relatively equal burden from each of the three diseases, while others had one or two dominant sources of unit-level burden, with no consistent pattern geographically across the entire subcontinent. Using a subnational counterfactual analysis, we show that nearly 300 million DALYs could have been averted since 2000 by raising all units to their national average. Our findings are directly relevant for decision-makers in determining which and targeting where the most appropriate interventions are for increasing child survival.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2017
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-11-2019
DOI: 10.1002/HSR2.141
Publisher: American Medical Association (AMA)
Date: 10-2023
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 24-08-2020
DOI: 10.1136/INJURYPREV-2019-043531
Abstract: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2020
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2018
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 13-03-2020
DOI: 10.1136/INJURYPREV-2019-043495
Abstract: As global rates of mortality decrease, rates of non-fatal injury have increased, particularly in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) nations. We hypothesised this global pattern of non-fatal injury would be demonstrated in regard to bony hand and wrist trauma over the 27-year study period. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 was used to estimate prevalence, age-standardised incidence and years lived with disability for hand trauma in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017. In idual injuries included hand and wrist fractures, thumb utations and non-thumb digit utations. The global incidence of hand trauma has only modestly decreased since 1990. In 2017, the age-standardised incidence of hand and wrist fractures was 179 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 146 to 217), whereas the less common injuries of thumb and non-thumb digit utation were 24 (95% UI 17 to 34) and 56 (95% UI 43 to 74) per 100 000, respectively. Rates of injury vary greatly by region, and improvements have not been equally distributed. The highest burden of hand trauma is currently reported in high SDI countries. However, low-middle and middle SDI countries have increasing rates of hand trauma by as much at 25%. Certain regions are noted to have high rates of hand trauma over the study period. Low-middle and middle SDI countries, however, have demonstrated increasing rates of fracture and utation over the last 27 years. This trend is concerning as access to quality and subspecialised surgical hand care is often limiting in these resource-limited regions.
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 24-04-2020
DOI: 10.1136/INJURYPREV-2019-043494
Abstract: Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2023
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 28-07-2021
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PNTD.0008824
Abstract: Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2023
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-06-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41562-021-01108-6
Abstract: Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life—is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for ex le, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 19-12-2022
DOI: 10.1186/S12916-022-02639-Z
Abstract: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15–59 years across SSA. We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-05-2023
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-12-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-020-03043-4
Abstract: The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) 1–4 . Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) 5–8 . Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km 2 pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts between 2010 and 2019, leaving many LMICs far from the GVAP goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019. MCV1 coverage was lower in rural than in urban locations, although a larger proportion of unvaccinated children overall lived in urban locations strategies to provide essential vaccination services should address both geographical contexts. These results provide a tool for decision-makers to strengthen routine MCV1 immunization programmes and provide equitable disease protection for all children.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2017
Publisher: American Medical Association (AMA)
Date: 03-2022
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2022
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2022
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2017
Publisher: Maad Rayan Publishing Company
Date: 07-2021
DOI: 10.34172/AIM.2021.74
Abstract: Background: Transport-related injuries (TIs) are a substantial public health concern for all regions of the world. The present study quantified the burden of TIs and deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) in 2017 by sex and age. Methods: TIs and deaths were estimated by age, sex, country, and year using Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) and DisMod-MR 2.1. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which quantify the total burden of years lost due to premature death or disability, were also estimated per 100000 population. All estimates were reported along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: In 2017, there were 5.5 million (UI 4.9–6.2) transport-related incident cases in the EMR – a substantial increase from 1990 (2.8 million UI 2.5–3.1). The age-standardized incidence rate for the EMR in 2017 was 787 (UI 705.5–876.2) per 100000, which has not changed significantly since 1990 (-0.9% UI -4.7 to 3). These rates differed remarkably between countries, such that Oman (1303.9 UI 1167.3–1441.5) and Palestine (486.5 UI 434.5-545.9) had the highest and lowest age-standardized incidence rates per 100000, respectively. In 2017, there were 185.3 thousand (UI 170.8–200.6) transport-related fatalities in the EMR – a substantial increase since 1990 (140.4 thousand UI 118.7–156.9). The age-standardized death rate for the EMR in 2017 was 29.5 (UI 27.1–31.9) per 100000, which was 30.5% lower than that found in 1990 (42.5 UI 36.8–47.3). In 2017, Somalia (54 UI 30–77.4) and Lebanon (7.1 UI 4.8–8.6) had the highest and lowest age-standardized death rates per 100,000, respectively. The age-standardised DALY rate for the EMR in 2017 was 1,528.8 (UI 1412.5–1651.3) per 100000, which was 34.4% lower than that found in 1990 (2,331.3 UI 1,993.1–2,589.9). In 2017, the highest DALY rate was found in Pakistan (3454121 UI 2297890- 4342908) and the lowest was found in Bahrain (8616 UI 7670-9751). Conclusion: The present study shows that while road traffic has become relatively safer (measured by deaths and DALYs per 100000 population), the number of transport-related fatalities in the EMR is growing and needs to be addressed urgently.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-01-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-019-1878-8
Abstract: Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally 1 . Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood 2 . Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0–59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards 3–5 . The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z -score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization’s median growth reference standards for a healthy population 6 . Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for ex le, states or provinces) 7 the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes 8 . Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa 9 , here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live 1 , aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for ex le, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications.
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 30-11-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-10-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-019-1545-0
Abstract: Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
Publisher: American Medical Association (AMA)
Date: 12-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-07-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41591-020-0972-7
Abstract: An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2022
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2022
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2023
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2022
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 02-03-2020
Abstract: Government and nongovernmental organizations need national and global estimates on the descriptive epidemiology of common oral conditions for policy planning and evaluation. The aim of this component of the Global Burden of Disease study was to produce estimates on prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability for oral conditions from 1990 to 2017 by sex, age, and countries. In addition, this study reports the global socioeconomic pattern in burden of oral conditions by the standard World Bank classification of economies as well as the Global Burden of Disease Socio-demographic Index. The findings show that oral conditions remain a substantial population health challenge. Globally, there were 3.5 billion cases (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI], 3.2 to 3.7 billion) of oral conditions, of which 2.3 billion (95% UI, 2.1 to 2.5 billion) had untreated caries in permanent teeth, 796 million (95% UI, 671 to 930 million) had severe periodontitis, 532 million (95% UI, 443 to 622 million) had untreated caries in deciduous teeth, 267 million (95% UI, 235 to 300 million) had total tooth loss, and 139 million (95% UI, 133 to 146 million) had other oral conditions in 2017. Several patterns emerged when the World Bank’s classification of economies and the Socio-demographic Index were used as indicators of economic development. In general, more economically developed countries have the lowest burden of untreated dental caries and severe periodontitis and the highest burden of total tooth loss. The findings offer an opportunity for policy makers to identify successful oral health strategies and strengthen them introduce and monitor different approaches where oral diseases are increasing plan integration of oral health in the agenda for prevention of noncommunicable diseases and estimate the cost of providing universal coverage for dental care.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2019
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2023
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2022
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 18-12-2019
DOI: 10.1136/INJURYPREV-2019-043299
Abstract: Past research has shown how fires, heat and hot substances are important causes of health loss globally. Detailed estimates of the morbidity and mortality from these injuries could help drive preventative measures and improved access to care. We used the Global Burden of Disease 2017 framework to produce three main results. First, we produced results on incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. Second, we analysed these results to measure mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we reported the measures above in terms of the cause of fire, heat and hot substances and the types of bodily injuries that result. Globally, there were 8 991 468 (7 481 218 to 10 740 897) new fire, heat and hot substance injuries in 2017 with 120 632 (101 630 to 129 383) deaths. At the global level, the age-standardised mortality caused by fire, heat and hot substances significantly declined from 1990 to 2017, but regionally there was variability in age-standardised incidence with some regions experiencing an increase (eg, Southern Latin America) and others experiencing a significant decrease (eg, High-income North America). The incidence and mortality of injuries that result from fire, heat and hot substances affect every region of the world but are most concentrated in middle and lower income areas. More resources should be invested in measuring these injuries as well as in improving infrastructure, advancing safety measures and ensuring access to care.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-10-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-022-33627-9
Abstract: Snakebite envenoming is an important cause of preventable death. The World Health Organization (WHO) set a goal to halve snakebite mortality by 2030. We used verbal autopsy and vital registration data to model the proportion of venomous animal deaths due to snakes by location, age, year, and sex, and applied these proportions to venomous animal contact mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. In 2019, 63,400 people (95% uncertainty interval 38,900–78,600) died globally from snakebites, which was equal to an age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of 0.8 deaths (0.5–1.0) per 100,000 and represents a 36% (2–49) decrease in ASMR since 1990. India had the greatest number of deaths in 2019, equal to an ASMR of 4.0 per 100,000 (2.3—5.0). We forecast mortality will continue to decline, but not sufficiently to meet WHO’s goals. Improved data collection should be prioritized to help target interventions, improve burden estimation, and monitor progress.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2018
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 08-01-2020
DOI: 10.1136/INJURYPREV-2019-043297
Abstract: The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) has historically produced estimates of causes of injury such as falls but not the resulting types of injuries that occur. The objective of this study was to estimate the global incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to facial fractures and to estimate the leading injurious causes of facial fracture. We obtained results from GBD 2017. First, the study estimated the incidence from each injury cause (eg, falls), and then the proportion of each cause that would result in facial fracture being the most disabling injury. Incidence, prevalence and YLDs of facial fractures are then calculated across causes. Globally, in 2017, there were 7 538 663 (95% uncertainty interval 6 116 489 to 9 493 113) new cases, 1 819 732 (1 609 419 to 2 091 618) prevalent cases, and 117 402 (73 266 to 169 689) YLDs due to facial fractures. In terms of age-standardised incidence, prevalence and YLDs, the global rates were 98 (80 to 123) per 100 000, 23 (20 to 27) per 100 000, and 2 (1 to 2) per 100 000, respectively. Facial fractures were most concentrated in Central Europe. Falls were the predominant cause in most regions. Facial fractures are predominantly caused by falls and occur worldwide. Healthcare systems and public health agencies should investigate methods of all injury prevention. It is important for healthcare systems in every part of the world to ensure access to treatment resources.
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 08-01-2020
DOI: 10.1136/INJURYPREV-2019-043296
Abstract: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm—the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2020
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-06-2021
DOI: 10.1186/S12911-021-01501-1
Abstract: Accurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments. We describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings. The proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio-Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number of deaths changes before and after redistribution for four countries: Brazil, the United States, Japan, and France, highlighting the necessity of accounting for garbage-coded deaths in the GBD. We provide a detailed description of redistribution methods developed for CoD data in the GBD these methods represent an overall improvement in empiricism compared to past reliance on a priori knowledge.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2022
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 13-09-2022
Abstract: Prostate cancer (PCa) is the second most prevalent cancer among men worldwide. This study presents estimates of PCa prevalence, incidence, death, years-of-life-lost (YLLs), years-lived-with-disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs), and the burden attributable to smoking during 1990-2019 in North Africa and Middle East using data of Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019. This study is a part of GBD 2019. Using vital registration and cancer registry data, the estimates on PCa burden were modeled. Risk factor analysis was performed through the six-step conceptual framework of Comparative Risk Assessment. The age-standardized rates (95% UI) of PCa incidence, prevalence, and death in 2019 were 23.7 (18.5-27.9), 161.1 (126.6-187.6), and 11.7 (9.4-13.9) per 100,000 population. While PCa incidence and prevalence increased by 77% and 144% during 1990-2019, respectively, the death rate stagnated. Of the 397% increase in PCa new cases, 234% was due to a rise in the age-specific incidence rate, 79% due to population growth, and 84% due to population aging. The YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs of PCa increased by 2% (-11.8-23.1), 108% (75.5-155.1), and 6% (-8.9-28.1). The death rate and DALYs rate attributable to smoking have decreased 12% and 10%, respectively. The DALYs rate attributable to smoking was 37.4 (15.9-67.8) in Lebanon and 5.9 (2.5-10.6) in Saudi Arabia, which were the highest and lowest in the region, respectively. The PCa incidence and prevalence rates increased during 1990-2019 however, the death rate stagnated. The increase in the incidence was mostly due to the rise in the age-specific incidence rate, rather than population growth or aging. The burden of PCa attributable to smoking has decreased in the past 30 years.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-09-2022
DOI: 10.1186/S12916-022-02486-Y
Abstract: Onchocerciasis is a disease caused by infection with Onchocerca volvulus , which is transmitted to humans via the bite of several species of black fly, and is responsible for permanent blindness or vision loss, as well as severe skin disease. Predominantly endemic in parts of Africa and Yemen, preventive chemotherapy with mass drug administration of ivermectin is the primary intervention recommended for the elimination of its transmission. A dataset of 18,116 geo-referenced prevalence survey datapoints was used to model annual 2000–2018 infection prevalence in Africa and Yemen. Using Bayesian model-based geostatistics, we generated spatially continuous estimates of all-age 2000–2018 onchocerciasis infection prevalence at the 5 × 5-km resolution as well as aggregations to the national level, along with corresponding estimates of the uncertainty in these predictions. As of 2018, the prevalence of onchocerciasis infection continues to be concentrated across central and western Africa, with the highest mean estimates at the national level in Ghana (12.2%, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.0–22.7). Mean estimates exceed 5% infection prevalence at the national level for Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan. Our analysis suggests that onchocerciasis infection has declined over the last two decades throughout western and central Africa. Focal areas of Angola, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Uganda continue to have mean microfiladermia prevalence estimates exceeding 25%. At and above this level, the continuation or initiation of mass drug administration with ivermectin is supported. If national programs aim to eliminate onchocerciasis infection, additional surveillance or supervision of areas of predicted high prevalence would be warranted to ensure sufficiently high coverage of program interventions.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2023
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2022
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 13-02-2020
DOI: 10.1136/OEMED-2019-106008
Abstract: This study provides an overview of the influence of occupational risk factors on the global burden of disease as estimated by the occupational component of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 study. The GBD 2016 study estimated the burden in terms of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) arising from the effects of occupational risk factors (carcinogens asthmagens particulate matter, gases and fumes (PMGF) secondhand smoke (SHS) noise ergonomic risk factors for low back pain risk factors for injury). A population attributable fraction (PAF) approach was used for most risk factors. In 2016, globally, an estimated 1.53 (95% uncertainty interval 1.39–1.68) million deaths and 76.1 (66.3–86.3) million DALYs were attributable to the included occupational risk factors, accounting for 2.8% of deaths and 3.2% of DALYs from all causes. Most deaths were attributable to PMGF, carcinogens (particularly asbestos), injury risk factors and SHS. Most DALYs were attributable to injury risk factors and ergonomic exposures. Men and persons 55 years or older were most affected. PAFs ranged from 26.8% for low back pain from ergonomic risk factors and 19.6% for hearing loss from noise to 3.4% for carcinogens. DALYs per capita were highest in Oceania, Southeast Asia and Central sub-Saharan Africa. On a per capita basis, between 1990 and 2016 there was an overall decrease of about 31% in deaths and 25% in DALYs. Occupational exposures continue to cause an important health burden worldwide, justifying the need for ongoing prevention and control initiatives.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 20-04-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41591-020-0807-6
Abstract: A double burden of malnutrition occurs when in iduals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of % in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2022
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2023
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2022
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2023
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2020
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2022
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-12-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-019-1872-1
Abstract: Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health 1–3 . As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting 4–6 . The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness 7,8 however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health 9–11 . Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of in iduals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but—to our knowledge—no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of in iduals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries 12–14 . By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2020
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 13-02-2020
DOI: 10.1136/OEMED-2019-106013
Abstract: This paper presents detailed analysis of the global and regional burden of chronic respiratory disease arising from occupational airborne exposures, as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study. The burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) due to occupational exposure to particulate matter, gases and fumes, and secondhand smoke, and the burden of asthma resulting from occupational exposure to asthmagens, was estimated using the population attributable fraction (PAF), calculated using exposure prevalence and relative risks from the literature. PAFs were applied to the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for COPD and asthma. Pneumoconioses were estimated directly from cause of death data. Age-standardised rates were based only on persons aged 15 years and above. The estimated PAFs (based on DALYs) were 17% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 14%–20%) for COPD and 10% (95% UI 9%–11%) for asthma. There were estimated to be 519 000 (95% UI 441,000–609,000) deaths from chronic respiratory disease in 2016 due to occupational airborne risk factors (COPD: 460,100 [95% UI 382,000–551,000] asthma: 37,600 [95% UI 28,400–47,900] pneumoconioses: 21,500 [95% UI 17,900–25,400]. The equivalent overall burden estimate was 13.6 million (95% UI 11.9–15.5 million) DALYs (COPD: 10.7 [95% UI 9.0–12.5] million asthma: 2.3 [95% UI 1.9–2.9] million pneumoconioses: 0.58 [95% UI 0.46–0.67] million). Rates were highest in males older persons and mainly in Oceania, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and decreased from 1990 to 2016. Workplace exposures resulting in COPD, asthma and pneumoconiosis continue to be important contributors to the burden of disease in all regions of the world. This should be reducible through improved prevention and control of relevant exposures.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2021
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 13-02-2020
DOI: 10.1136/OEMED-2019-106012
Abstract: This study provides a detailed analysis of the global and regional burden of cancer due to occupational carcinogens from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study. The burden of cancer due to 14 International Agency for Research on Cancer Group 1 occupational carcinogens was estimated using the population attributable fraction, based on past population exposure prevalence and relative risks from the literature. The results were used to calculate attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). There were an estimated 349 000 (95% Uncertainty Interval 269 000 to 427 000) deaths and 7.2 (5.8 to 8.6) million DALYs in 2016 due to exposure to the included occupational carcinogens—3.9% (3.2% to 4.6%) of all cancer deaths and 3.4% (2.7% to 4.0%) of all cancer DALYs 79% of deaths were of males and 88% were of people aged 55 –79 years. Lung cancer accounted for 86% of the deaths, mesothelioma for 7.9% and laryngeal cancer for 2.1%. Asbestos was responsible for the largest number of deaths due to occupational carcinogens (63%) other important risk factors were secondhand smoke (14%), silica (14%) and diesel engine exhaust (5%). The highest mortality rates were in high-income regions, largely due to asbestos-related cancers, whereas in other regions cancer deaths from secondhand smoke, silica and diesel engine exhaust were more prominent. From 1990 to 2016, there was a decrease in the rate for deaths (−10%) and DALYs (−15%) due to exposure to occupational carcinogens. Work-related carcinogens are responsible for considerable disease burden worldwide. The results provide guidance for prevention and control initiatives.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2023
No related grants have been discovered for Abdallah Samy.