ORCID Profile
0000-0002-7517-5548
Current Organisations
Wellcome Trust
,
University of Oxford
,
Health Data Research UK
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Publications
Burden of diabetes and hyperglycaemia in adults in the Americas, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2022
Global, regional, and national burden of suicide mortality 1990 to 2016: systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 06-02-2019
DOI: 10.1136/BMJ.L94
Abstract: To use the estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 to describe patterns of suicide mortality globally, regionally, and for 195 countries and territories by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index, and to describe temporal trends between 1990 and 2016. Systematic analysis. Crude and age standardised rates from suicide mortality and years of life lost were compared across regions and countries, and by age, sex, and Socio-demographic index (a composite measure of fertility, income, and education). The total number of deaths from suicide increased by 6.7% (95% uncertainty interval 0.4% to 15.6%) globally over the 27 year study period to 817 000 (762 000 to 884 000) deaths in 2016. However, the age standardised mortality rate for suicide decreased by 32.7% (27.2% to 36.6%) worldwide between 1990 and 2016, similar to the decline in the global age standardised mortality rate of 30.6%. Suicide was the leading cause of age standardised years of life lost in the Global Burden of Disease region of high income Asia Pacific and was among the top 10 leading causes in eastern Europe, central Europe, western Europe, central Asia, Australasia, southern Latin America, and high income North America. Rates for men were higher than for women across regions, countries, and age groups, except for the 15 to 19 age group. There was variation in the female to male ratio, with higher ratios at lower levels of Socio-demographic index. Women experienced greater decreases in mortality rates (49.0%, 95% uncertainty interval 42.6% to 54.6%) than men (23.8%, 15.6% to 32.7%). Age standardised mortality rates for suicide have greatly reduced since 1990, but suicide remains an important contributor to mortality worldwide. Suicide mortality was variable across locations, between sexes, and between age groups. Suicide prevention strategies can be targeted towards vulnerable populations if they are informed by variations in mortality rates.
Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2018
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global B
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2018
Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2019
Prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends in anaemia burden by severity and cause, 1990–2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2023
Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990–2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2020
Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2023
Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2021
Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2020
Measuring the availability of human resources for health and its relationship to universal health coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Bur
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2022
Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2023
Efficacy of Single-Dose Primaquine With Artemisinin Combination Therapy on Plasmodium falciparum Gametocytes and Transmission: An Individual Patient Meta-Analysis
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 11-08-2020
Abstract: Since the World Health Organization recommended single low-dose (0.25 mg/kg) primaquine (PQ) in combination with artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) in areas of low transmission or artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum, several single-site studies have been conducted to assess efficacy. An in idual patient meta-analysis to assess gametocytocidal and transmission-blocking efficacy of PQ in combination with different ACTs was conducted. Random effects logistic regression was used to quantify PQ effect on (1) gametocyte carriage in the first 2 weeks post treatment and (2) the probability of infecting at least 1 mosquito or of a mosquito becoming infected. In 2574 participants from 14 studies, PQ reduced PCR-determined gametocyte carriage on days 7 and 14, most apparently in patients presenting with gametocytemia on day 0 (odds ratio [OR], 0.22 95% confidence interval [CI], .17–.28 and OR, 0.12 95% CI, .08–.16, respectively). Rate of decline in gametocyte carriage was faster when PQ was combined with artemether-lumefantrine (AL) compared to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) (P = .010 for day 7). Addition of 0.25 mg/kg PQ was associated with near complete prevention of transmission to mosquitoes. Transmission blocking is achieved with 0.25 mg/kg PQ. Gametocyte persistence and infectivity are lower when PQ is combined with AL compared to DP.
Global estimation of anti-malarial drug effectiveness for the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria 1991–2019
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 20-10-2020
DOI: 10.1186/S12936-020-03446-8
Abstract: Anti-malarial drugs play a critical role in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality, but their role is mediated by their effectiveness. Effectiveness is defined as the probability that an anti-malarial drug will successfully treat an in idual infected with malaria parasites under routine health care delivery system. Anti-malarial drug effectiveness (AmE) is influenced by drug resistance, drug quality, health system quality, and patient adherence to drug use its influence on malaria burden varies through space and time. This study uses data from 232 efficacy trials comprised of 86,776 infected in iduals to estimate the artemisinin-based and non-artemisinin-based AmE for treating falciparum malaria between 1991 and 2019. Bayesian spatiotemporal models were fitted and used to predict effectiveness at the pixel-level (5 km × 5 km). The median and interquartile ranges (IQR) of AmE are presented for all malaria-endemic countries. The global effectiveness of artemisinin-based drugs was 67.4% (IQR: 33.3–75.8), 70.1% (43.6–76.0) and 71.8% (46.9–76.4) for the 1991–2000, 2006–2010, and 2016–2019 periods, respectively. Countries in central Africa, a few in South America, and in the Asian region faced the challenge of lower effectiveness of artemisinin-based anti-malarials. However, improvements were seen after 2016, leaving only a few hotspots in Southeast Asia where resistance to artemisinin and partner drugs is currently problematic and in the central Africa where socio-demographic challenges limit effectiveness. The use of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) with a competent partner drug and having multiple ACT as first-line treatment choice sustained high levels of effectiveness. High levels of access to healthcare, human resource capacity, education, and proximity to cities were associated with increased effectiveness. Effectiveness of non-artemisinin-based drugs was much lower than that of artemisinin-based with no improvement over time: 52.3% (17.9–74.9) for 1991–2000 and 55.5% (27.1–73.4) for 2011–2015. Overall, AmE for artemisinin-based and non-artemisinin-based drugs were, respectively, 29.6 and 36% below clinical efficacy as measured in anti-malarial drug trials. This study provides evidence that health system performance, drug quality and patient adherence influence the effectiveness of anti-malarials used in treating uncomplicated falciparum malaria. These results provide guidance to countries’ treatment practises and are critical inputs for malaria prevalence and incidence models used to estimate national level malaria burden.
The efficacy of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and artemether-lumefantrine with and without primaquine on Plasmodium vivax recurrence: A systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 04-10-2019
Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 24-08-2020
DOI: 10.1136/INJURYPREV-2019-043531
Abstract: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.
Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2023
Global trends of hand and wrist trauma: a systematic analysis of fracture and digit amputation using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 13-03-2020
DOI: 10.1136/INJURYPREV-2019-043495
Abstract: As global rates of mortality decrease, rates of non-fatal injury have increased, particularly in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) nations. We hypothesised this global pattern of non-fatal injury would be demonstrated in regard to bony hand and wrist trauma over the 27-year study period. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 was used to estimate prevalence, age-standardised incidence and years lived with disability for hand trauma in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017. In idual injuries included hand and wrist fractures, thumb utations and non-thumb digit utations. The global incidence of hand trauma has only modestly decreased since 1990. In 2017, the age-standardised incidence of hand and wrist fractures was 179 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 146 to 217), whereas the less common injuries of thumb and non-thumb digit utation were 24 (95% UI 17 to 34) and 56 (95% UI 43 to 74) per 100 000, respectively. Rates of injury vary greatly by region, and improvements have not been equally distributed. The highest burden of hand trauma is currently reported in high SDI countries. However, low-middle and middle SDI countries have increasing rates of hand trauma by as much at 25%. Certain regions are noted to have high rates of hand trauma over the study period. Low-middle and middle SDI countries, however, have demonstrated increasing rates of fracture and utation over the last 27 years. This trend is concerning as access to quality and subspecialised surgical hand care is often limiting in these resource-limited regions.
Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41591-021-01498-0
Abstract: Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.
Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 08-01-2020
DOI: 10.1136/INJURYPREV-2019-043296
Abstract: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm—the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.
Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2021
Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2020
Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2023
Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000–2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-06-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41562-021-01108-6
Abstract: Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life—is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for ex le, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030.
Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2020
Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2020
Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2020
Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2023
Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution, 1990–2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2022
A systematic review and an individual patient data meta-analysis of ivermectin use in children weighing less than fifteen kilograms: Is it time to reconsider the current contraindication?
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 17-03-2021
DOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PNTD.0009144
Abstract: Oral ivermectin is a safe broad spectrum anthelminthic used for treating several neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Currently, ivermectin use is contraindicated in children weighing less than 15 kg, restricting access to this drug for the treatment of NTDs. Here we provide an updated systematic review of the literature and we conducted an in idual-level patient data (IPD) meta-analysis describing the safety of ivermectin in children weighing less than 15 kg. A systematic review was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) for IPD guidelines by searching MEDLINE via PubMed, Web of Science, Ovid Embase, LILACS, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, TOXLINE for all clinical trials, case series, case reports, and database entries for reports on the use of ivermectin in children weighing less than 15 kg that were published between 1 January 1980 to 25 October 2019. The protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO): CRD42017056515. A total of 3,730 publications were identified, 97 were selected for potential inclusion, but only 17 sources describing 15 studies met the minimum criteria which consisted of known weights of children less than 15 kg linked to possible adverse events, and provided comprehensive IPD. A total of 1,088 children weighing less than 15 kg were administered oral ivermectin for one of the following indications: scabies, mass drug administration for scabies control, crusted scabies, cutaneous larva migrans, myiasis, pthiriasis, strongyloidiasis, trichuriasis, and parasitic disease of unknown origin. Overall a total of 1.4% (15/1,088) of children experienced 18 adverse events all of which were mild and self-limiting. No serious adverse events were reported. Existing limited data suggest that oral ivermectin in children weighing less than 15 kilograms is safe. Data from well-designed clinical trials are needed to provide further assurance.
Global and regional burden of disease and injury in 2016 arising from occupational exposures: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 13-02-2020
DOI: 10.1136/OEMED-2019-106008
Abstract: This study provides an overview of the influence of occupational risk factors on the global burden of disease as estimated by the occupational component of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 study. The GBD 2016 study estimated the burden in terms of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) arising from the effects of occupational risk factors (carcinogens asthmagens particulate matter, gases and fumes (PMGF) secondhand smoke (SHS) noise ergonomic risk factors for low back pain risk factors for injury). A population attributable fraction (PAF) approach was used for most risk factors. In 2016, globally, an estimated 1.53 (95% uncertainty interval 1.39–1.68) million deaths and 76.1 (66.3–86.3) million DALYs were attributable to the included occupational risk factors, accounting for 2.8% of deaths and 3.2% of DALYs from all causes. Most deaths were attributable to PMGF, carcinogens (particularly asbestos), injury risk factors and SHS. Most DALYs were attributable to injury risk factors and ergonomic exposures. Men and persons 55 years or older were most affected. PAFs ranged from 26.8% for low back pain from ergonomic risk factors and 19.6% for hearing loss from noise to 3.4% for carcinogens. DALYs per capita were highest in Oceania, Southeast Asia and Central sub-Saharan Africa. On a per capita basis, between 1990 and 2016 there was an overall decrease of about 31% in deaths and 25% in DALYs. Occupational exposures continue to cause an important health burden worldwide, justifying the need for ongoing prevention and control initiatives.
Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-12-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-020-03043-4
Abstract: The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) 1–4 . Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) 5–8 . Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km 2 pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts between 2010 and 2019, leaving many LMICs far from the GVAP goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019. MCV1 coverage was lower in rural than in urban locations, although a larger proportion of unvaccinated children overall lived in urban locations strategies to provide essential vaccination services should address both geographical contexts. These results provide a tool for decision-makers to strengthen routine MCV1 immunization programmes and provide equitable disease protection for all children.
Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 20-04-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41591-020-0807-6
Abstract: A double burden of malnutrition occurs when in iduals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of % in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.
Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2020
Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2020
Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2022
The WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network Clinical Trials Publication Library: A Live, Open-Access Database of Plasmodium Treatment Efficacy Trials
Publisher: American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
Date: 08-07-2020
Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2020
Ophthalmic artery Doppler in the complementary diagnosis of preeclampsia: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-05-2023
DOI: 10.1186/S12884-023-05656-9
Abstract: To evaluate the accuracy of different parameters of the ophthalmic artery Doppler (OAD) in the complementary diagnosis of preecl sia (PE). This meta-analysis adhered to the PRISMA guidelines. To investigate the mean difference in OAD values, peak systolic velocity (PSV), end-diastolic velocity (EDV), second systolic velocity peak (P2), resistance index (RI), pulsatility index (PI), and peak ratio (PR), between PE cases (overall and according to severity) and controls, random-effects meta-analyses were conducted for each Doppler parameter, with overall PE and mild and severe PE subgroups. Diagnostic performance and heterogeneity were evaluated with summary receiver operating characteristic (sROC) curves and 95% confidence intervals obtained with bivariate models. Eight studies stratified the results into mild and severe or late and early PE, involving 1,425 pregnant women. PR and P2 had better diagnostic performance than the other indexes, with the PR of AUsROC at 0.885, the sensitivity of 84%, and specificity of 92%, with a low false-positive rate of 0.08 and the P2 with AUsROC of 0.926, the sensitivity of 85% and specificity of 88%. RI, PI, and EDV showed good performance and consistency across studies but lower AUsROC values of 0.833, 0.794, and 0.772, respectively. Ophthalmic artery Doppler is a complementary tool with good performance for the diagnosis of overall and severe preecl sia, with high and best sensitivity and specificity when using PR and P2 parameters.
Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burd
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2021
Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2022
Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2021
Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-01-2021
DOI: 10.1186/S12916-020-01876-4
Abstract: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on in idual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and erging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.
The Vivax Surveyor: Online mapping database for Plasmodium vivax clinical trials
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2017
Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-01-2020
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-019-1878-8
Abstract: Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally 1 . Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood 2 . Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0–59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards 3–5 . The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z -score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization’s median growth reference standards for a healthy population 6 . Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for ex le, states or provinces) 7 the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes 8 . Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa 9 , here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live 1 , aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for ex le, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications.
Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990–2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2023
Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2020
Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990–2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2023
Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-12-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-019-1872-1
Abstract: Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health 1–3 . As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting 4–6 . The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness 7,8 however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health 9–11 . Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of in iduals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but—to our knowledge—no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of in iduals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries 12–14 . By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.
Prevalence and attributable health burden of chronic respiratory diseases, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2020
Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-10-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-019-1545-0
Abstract: Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
Risk of Plasmodium vivax parasitaemia after Plasmodium falciparum infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2019
Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2021
Global, regional, and national burden of allergic disorders and their risk factors in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 201
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 11-07-2023
DOI: 10.1111/ALL.15807
Abstract: Asthma and atopic dermatitis (AD) are chronic allergic conditions, along with allergic rhinitis and food allergy and cause high morbidity and mortality both in children and adults. This study aims to evaluate the global, regional, national, and temporal trends of the burden of asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019 and analyze their associations with geographic, demographic, social, and clinical factors. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we assessed the age‐standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) of both asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019, stratified by geographic region, age, sex, and socio‐demographic index (SDI). DALYs were calculated as the sum of years lived with disability and years of life lost to premature mortality. Additionally, the disease burden of asthma attributable to high body mass index, occupational asthmagens, and smoking was described. In 2019, there were a total of 262 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 224–309 million] cases of asthma and 171 million [95% UI: 165–178 million] total cases of AD globally age‐standardized prevalence rates were 3416 [95% UI: 2899–4066] and 2277 [95% UI: 2192–2369] per 100,000 population for asthma and AD, respectively, a 24.1% [95% UI: −27.2 to −20.8] decrease for asthma and a 4.3% [95% UI: 3.8–4.8] decrease for AD compared to baseline in 1990. Both asthma and AD had similar trends according to age, with age‐specific prevalence rates peaking at age 5–9 years and rising again in adulthood. The prevalence and incidence of asthma and AD were both higher for in iduals with higher SDI however, mortality and DALYs rates of in iduals with asthma had a reverse trend, with higher mortality and DALYs rates in those in the lower SDI quintiles. Of the three risk factors, high body mass index contributed to the highest DALYs and deaths due to asthma, accounting for a total of 3.65 million [95% UI: 2.14–5.60 million] asthma DALYs and 75,377 [95% UI: 40,615–122,841] asthma deaths. Asthma and AD continue to cause significant morbidity worldwide, having increased in total prevalence and incidence cases worldwide, but having decreased in age‐standardized prevalence rates from 1990 to 2019. Although both are more frequent at younger ages and more prevalent in high‐SDI countries, each condition has distinct temporal and regional characteristics. Understanding the temporospatial trends in the disease burden of asthma and AD could guide future policies and interventions to better manage these diseases worldwide and achieve equity in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.
The global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis by cause in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2020
Global and regional burden of chronic respiratory disease in 2016 arising from non-infectious airborne occupational exposures: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 13-02-2020
DOI: 10.1136/OEMED-2019-106013
Abstract: This paper presents detailed analysis of the global and regional burden of chronic respiratory disease arising from occupational airborne exposures, as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study. The burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) due to occupational exposure to particulate matter, gases and fumes, and secondhand smoke, and the burden of asthma resulting from occupational exposure to asthmagens, was estimated using the population attributable fraction (PAF), calculated using exposure prevalence and relative risks from the literature. PAFs were applied to the number of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for COPD and asthma. Pneumoconioses were estimated directly from cause of death data. Age-standardised rates were based only on persons aged 15 years and above. The estimated PAFs (based on DALYs) were 17% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 14%–20%) for COPD and 10% (95% UI 9%–11%) for asthma. There were estimated to be 519 000 (95% UI 441,000–609,000) deaths from chronic respiratory disease in 2016 due to occupational airborne risk factors (COPD: 460,100 [95% UI 382,000–551,000] asthma: 37,600 [95% UI 28,400–47,900] pneumoconioses: 21,500 [95% UI 17,900–25,400]. The equivalent overall burden estimate was 13.6 million (95% UI 11.9–15.5 million) DALYs (COPD: 10.7 [95% UI 9.0–12.5] million asthma: 2.3 [95% UI 1.9–2.9] million pneumoconioses: 0.58 [95% UI 0.46–0.67] million). Rates were highest in males older persons and mainly in Oceania, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and decreased from 1990 to 2016. Workplace exposures resulting in COPD, asthma and pneumoconiosis continue to be important contributors to the burden of disease in all regions of the world. This should be reducible through improved prevention and control of relevant exposures.
Global and regional burden of cancer in 2016 arising from occupational exposure to selected carcinogens: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 13-02-2020
DOI: 10.1136/OEMED-2019-106012
Abstract: This study provides a detailed analysis of the global and regional burden of cancer due to occupational carcinogens from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study. The burden of cancer due to 14 International Agency for Research on Cancer Group 1 occupational carcinogens was estimated using the population attributable fraction, based on past population exposure prevalence and relative risks from the literature. The results were used to calculate attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). There were an estimated 349 000 (95% Uncertainty Interval 269 000 to 427 000) deaths and 7.2 (5.8 to 8.6) million DALYs in 2016 due to exposure to the included occupational carcinogens—3.9% (3.2% to 4.6%) of all cancer deaths and 3.4% (2.7% to 4.0%) of all cancer DALYs 79% of deaths were of males and 88% were of people aged 55 –79 years. Lung cancer accounted for 86% of the deaths, mesothelioma for 7.9% and laryngeal cancer for 2.1%. Asbestos was responsible for the largest number of deaths due to occupational carcinogens (63%) other important risk factors were secondhand smoke (14%), silica (14%) and diesel engine exhaust (5%). The highest mortality rates were in high-income regions, largely due to asbestos-related cancers, whereas in other regions cancer deaths from secondhand smoke, silica and diesel engine exhaust were more prominent. From 1990 to 2016, there was a decrease in the rate for deaths (−10%) and DALYs (−15%) due to exposure to occupational carcinogens. Work-related carcinogens are responsible for considerable disease burden worldwide. The results provide guidance for prevention and control initiatives.
Related Organisations
Wellcome Trust
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
University Of Oxford
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Health Data Research UK
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Related Funding Activities
No related grants have been discovered for Leonardo Roever MHS, PhD, Post-Doctorate, MBA (Data Science).