ORCID Profile
0000-0002-6606-5507
Current Organisation
University of Otago Wellington
Does something not look right? The information on this page has been harvested from data sources that may not be up to date. We continue to work with information providers to improve coverage and quality. To report an issue, use the Feedback Form.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 16-03-2021
DOI: 10.1111/POPS.12746
Abstract: Belief in conspiracies is not restricted to the fringe dwellers of society. International research suggests that such beliefs are quite common and that conspiracy theories may serve three basic psychological motives (i.e., epistemic, existential, and relational) for in iduals. Yet, little is known about conspiracy theory awareness or belief in Australasia. We report the first large systematic investigation of system‐justifying motives using two nationally representative s les of Australians ( n = 1011) and New Zealanders ( n = 754). Our findings show that almost all are aware of local and international conspiracies, the majority endorse one or more, and that all three psychological motives consistently relate to conspiracy belief, but not to awareness. In a series of hierarchical multiple regressions, we find that relational (i.e., increased anomie and disillusionment with the government) and existential motives (i.e., less trust in others and increased religiosity) are uniquely and relatively more important than epistemic needs (i.e., decreased analytic thinking) as predictors of increased local and international conspiracy belief. Findings are discussed in terms of the importance of understanding conspiracy theories as an ideological belief system that may function to serve underlying psychological motives.
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 16-04-2021
DOI: 10.1177/09636625211007013
Abstract: Public opinion regarding scientific developments such as genetically modified food can be mixed. We suggest such science-based technological innovations are rejected by some because they are perceived to be advanced as part of a conspiracy. In nationally representative s les (Australia n = 1011 New Zealand n = 754), we report the associations between five conspiracism facets and anti-science attitudes. Results indicate broad public opposition to genetically modified food and use of nuclear power, but more acceptance of renewable power, potable recycled water, 5G networks, and childhood vaccinations. There were small to moderate associations between the rejection of scientific innovations and conspiracism. Multivariate models estimating unique associations of conspiracism facets with anti-science attitudes suggested several novel and important relationships, particularly for childhood vaccination, genetically modified food, and 5G networks. We discuss the importance of examining factors such as conspiracism in understanding what may motivate and sustain rejection of scientific evidence-based claims about socially contentious technological innovations.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 03-05-2020
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 03-07-2022
Publisher: Center for Open Science
Date: 31-03-2022
Abstract: Psychological research has produced a significant body of knowledge about the antecedents and consequences of inter-in idual belief in conspiracy theories. What is less clear, however, is the extent to which in iduals’ beliefs in conspiracy theories vary over time (i.e., intra-in idual variation). In this descriptive and exploratory study, we therefore aimed to describe intra-in idual variability in belief in conspiracy theories. We collected data from 498 Australians and New Zealanders using an online longitudinal survey, with data collected at monthly intervals over six months (March to September 2021). Our measure of conspiracy theories included items describing ten unfounded conspiracy theories with responses on a 5-point Likert scale. While there was substantial variance in beliefs between different participants (i.e., inter-in idual variance), there was much less intra-in idual variance (intraclass r = 0.91). This suggests that beliefs in conspiracy theories were highly stable in our s le. This stability implies that longitudinal studies testing hypotheses about the causes and consequences of belief in conspiracy theories may require large s les of participants and time points to achieve adequate power. It also implies that explanations of belief in conspiracy theories need to accommodate the observation that belief in such theories varies much more between people than within people.
Publisher: Center for Open Science
Date: 15-02-2023
Abstract: Replication is an important “credibility control” mechanism for clarifying the reliability of published findings. However, replication is costly, and it is infeasible to replicate everything. Accurate, fast, lower cost alternatives such as eliciting predictions from experts or novices could accelerate credibility assessment and improve allocation of replication resources for important and uncertain findings. We elicited judgments from experts and novices on 100 claims from preprints about an emerging area of research (COVID-19 pandemic) using a new interactive structured elicitation protocol and we conducted 35 new replications. Participants’ average estimates were similar to the observed replication rate of 60%. After interacting with their peers, novices updated both their estimates and confidence in their judgements significantly more than experts and their accuracy improved more between elicitation rounds. Experts’ average accuracy was 0.54 (95% CI: [0.454, 0.628]) after interaction and they correctly classified 55% of claims novices’ average accuracy was 0.55 (95% CI: [0.455, 0.628]), correctly classifying 61% of claims. The difference in accuracy between experts and novices was not significant and their judgments on the full set of claims were strongly correlated (r=.48). These results are consistent with prior investigations eliciting predictions about the replicability of published findings in established areas of research and suggest that expertise may not be required for credibility assessment of some research findings.
Publisher: Center for Open Science
Date: 02-06-2022
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic supercharged the spread of fake news, misinformation, and conspiracy theories worldwide. Using a national probability s le of adults from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study during 2020 (17–99 years old M = 48.59, SD = 13.86 63% women, 37% men N = 41,487), we examined the associations between agreement with general conspiracy beliefs and political indicators of intention to vote and satisfaction with government, alongside political factors including trust in politicians, political efficacy, identity centrality, and political ideology. Left-wing political ideology, trust in politicians, and political efficacy accounted for most of the explained variance in satisfaction with the government. General conspiracy belief was also a unique contributor to lower satisfaction with the government. We also found a curvilinear relationship between political ideology with heightened belief in conspiracies at both ideological extremes and the centre. Findings are discussed in terms of the consequences of conspiracy belief on democratic engagement.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 27-01-2022
DOI: 10.1111/BJSO.12518
Abstract: A substantial minority of the public express belief in conspiracy theories. A robust phenomenon in this area is that people who believe one conspiracy theory are more likely to believe in others. But the reason for this “positive manifold” of belief in conspiracy theories is unclear. One possibility is that a single underlying latent factor (e.g. “conspiracism”) causes variation in belief in specific conspiracy theories. Another possibility is that beliefs in various conspiracy theories support one another in a mutually reinforcing network of beliefs (the “monological belief system” theory). While the monological theory has been influential in the literature, the fact that it can be operationalised as a statistical network model has not previously been recognised. In this study, we therefore tested both the unidimensional factor model and a network model. Participants were 1553 American adults recruited via Prolific. Belief in conspiracies was measured using an adapted version of the Belief in Conspiracy Theories Inventory. The fit of the two competing models was evaluated both by using van Bork et al.’s (Psychometrika, 83, 2018, 443, Multivariate Behavioral Research, 56, 2019, 175) method for testing network versus unidimensional factor models, as well as by evaluating goodness of fit to the s le covariance matrix. In both cases, evaluation of fit according to our pre‐registered inferential criteria favoured the network model.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for John Kerr.