ORCID Profile
0000-0003-1277-6677
Current Organisation
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
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Publisher: Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera
Date: 04-08-2021
DOI: 10.20937/ATM.53051
Abstract: We investigate convective storms over the Sabana de Bogotá, a high-altitude and densely populated area in the Colombian tropical Andes. Convective events are identified using infrared satellite images and in-situ precipitation data. As expected, convection shows a strong early-afternoon peak during the two rainy seasons. Previous studies hypothesize that early-afternoon westerly winds and their moisture advection from the warmer Magdalena Valley are the main explanatory mechanism for intense storms. We find that early-afternoon westerlies are present in 78% of the rainy season days, but convective events develop in only 26% of the days. Thus, although westerlies seem necessary for convection due to the convergence they generate, they only occasionally generate storms, and are therefore not a good predictor. Furthermore, reanalysis data indicate that precipitable water vapor (PWV) at the Magdalena Valley is anomalously low during convective days, suggesting that moisture converges locally instead of being advected from the west. Based on composites of surface wind speed, air temperature, pressure and GPS-derived PWV, we identify the most prominent signals associated to deep convection: a weaker than average wind speed throughout the morning, higher than normal values of surface air temperature towards noon, followed by an anomalous steep increase of PWV and wind speed. These features indicate that convection results from a strong diurnal forcing facilitated by convergence of westerly winds, combined with sufficient water vapor convergence, with a timescale of about 3 hours. This highlights the relevance of high temporal resolution monitoring of PWV offered by Global Navigational Satellite System stations.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2013
Abstract: In numerical simulations of growing congestus clouds, the maximum upward velocities w typically occur in compact toroidal vortices or thermals. These maxima were tracked, and the momentum budget was analyzed within spherical regions centered on them with objectively determined radii approximately enclosing the vortex ring or pair. Such regions are proposed as an advantageous prototype for rising air parcels due to their prolonged identity as evident in laboratory flows. Buoyancy and other forces are generally less than 0.02 m s−2 (0.7 K). In particular, resolved mixing between thermals and their environment fails to produce the drag normally anticipated, often producing even a slight upward force, indicating that parcel models should allow for significantly different dilution rates for momentum than for material properties. A conceptual model is proposed to explain this as a result of the thermals' internal circulation and detrainment characteristics. The implications of momentum dilution for cumulus development are explored using a simple model of a heterogeneous entraining parcel. Without friction, parcels reach the upper troposphere even at a high entrainment rate [~(2 km)−1] if the environment is sufficiently humid, whereas with standard momentum dilution, a much lower entrainment rate is required. Peak condensed water amounts and sensitivities of cloud amount and height to ambient humidity are significantly more realistic in the high-entrainment case. This suggests that revised treatments of friction and momentum could help address the “entrainment paradox” whereby entrainment rates implied by detailed cloud studies are higher than those typically preferred for parcel-based calculations.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 21-06-2011
Abstract: Abstract. We use the Lorenz Energy Cycle (LEC) to evaluate changes in global energetic activity due to CO2-doubling in the coupled atmosphere-ocean ECHAM5/MPI-OM model. Globally, the energetic activity – measured as the total conversion rate of available potential energy into kinetic energy – decreases by about 4 %. This weakening results from a dual response that consists of a strengthening of the LEC in the upper-troposphere and a weakening in the lower and middle troposphere. This is fully consistent with results from a coarser resolution version of the same coupled model. We further use our experiments to investigate the in idual contributions of the transient and stationary eddy components to the main energetics response. The transient eddy terms have a larger contribution to the total energetic activity than the stationary ones. We find that this is also true in terms of their 2 × CO2-response. Changes in the transient eddy components determine the main energetics response, whereas the stationary eddy components have very small contributions. Hence, the dual response – strengthening in the upper troposphere and weakening below – concerns mainly the transient eddy terms. We can relate qualitatively this response to the two main features of the 2 × CO2 warming pattern: (a) the tropical upper-tropospheric warming increases the pole-to-equator temperature gradient – strengthening the energetic activity above – and enhances static stability – weakening the energetic activity below and (b) the high-latitude surface warming decreases the pole-to-equator temperature gradient in the lower troposphere – weakening the energetic activity below. Despite the small contribution from the stationary eddies to the main energetics response, changes in stationary eddy available potential energy (Pse) reflect some features of the warming pattern: stronger land-sea contrasts at the subtropics and weaker land-sea contrasts at the high northern latitudes affect Pse regionally, but do not affect the global energetics response.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2012
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00468.1
Abstract: The warming pattern due to higher greenhouse gas concentrations is expected to affect the global atmospheric energetics mainly via changes in the (i) meridional temperature gradient and (ii) mean static stability. Changes in surface meridional temperature gradients have been previously regarded as the determining feature for the energetics response, but recent studies suggest that changes in mean static stability may be more relevant than previously thought. This study aims to determine the relative importance of these two effects by comparing the energetics responses due to different warming patterns using a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. By means of an additional diabatic forcing, experiments with different warming patterns are obtained: one with a 2xCO2-like pattern that validates the method, one with only the tropical upper-tropospheric warming, and one with only the high-latitude surface warming. The study’s findings suggest that the dominant aspect of the warming pattern that alters the global atmospheric energetics is not its associated meridional temperature gradient changes, but the mean static stability changes. The tropical upper warming weakens the energetics by increasing the mean static stability, whereas the surface warming strengthens it by reducing the mean static stability. The combined 2xCO2-like response is dominated by the tropical upper-tropospheric warming effect, hence the weaker energetic activity. Eddy kinetic energy changes consistently, but the two opposite responses nearly cancel each other in the 2xCO2 case. Therefore, estimates of future changes in storminess may be particularly sensitive to the relative magnitude of the main features of the simulated warming pattern.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2012
Abstract: This paper presents an estimate of the oceanic Lorenz energy cycle derived from a simulation forced by 6-hourly fluxes obtained from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis-1. The total rate of energy generation amounts to 6.6 TW, of which 1.9 TW is generated by the time-mean winds and 2.2 TW by the time-varying winds. The dissipation of kinetic energy amounts to 4.4 TW, of which 3 TW originate from the dissipation of eddy kinetic energy. The energy exchange between reservoirs is dominated by the baroclinic pathway and the pathway that distributes the energy generated by the time-mean winds. The former converts 0.7 to 0.8 TW mean available potential energy to eddy available potential energy and finally to eddy kinetic energy, whereas the latter converts 0.5 TW mean kinetic energy to mean available potential energy. This energy cycle differs from the atmospheric one in two aspects. First, the generation of the mean kinetic and mean available potential energy is each, to a first approximation, balanced by the dissipation. The interaction of the oceanic general circulation with mesoscale eddies is hence less crucial than the corresponding interaction in the atmosphere. Second, the baroclinic pathway in the ocean is facilitated not only by the surface buoyancy flux but also by the winds through a conversion of 0.5 TW mean kinetic energy to mean available potential energy. In the atmosphere, the respective conversion is almost absent and the baroclinic energy pathway is driven solely by the differential heating.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 16-10-2018
Abstract: Mixing is one of the most important processes associated with atmospheric moist convection. It determines the two-way interaction between clouds and their environment, thus having a direct impact on the time evolution of convection. The fractional entrainment rate ε—the main parameter related to mixing—is often parameterized in global circulation models as a function of updraft properties, and at the same time has a strong influence on how convection evolves. Within the framework of cumulus thermal vortices in large-eddy simulations of convection, here we first investigate the validity of some of the most common parameterizations of ε, and then investigate how relevant ε is for the fate of these thermals. We find that 1/R, where R is a measure of the thermal’s radius, best parameterizes ε, but it explains only about 20% of the total variance. On the other hand, we find that both ε and favorable initial conditions—including high initial saturated fraction of the thermals—are key factors that affect the thermals’ ascent rate, mean buoyancy, and distance traveled. The lifetimes of thermals, however, seem not to be affected significantly by either ε or initial conditions, which supports the view of cumulus convection as a succession of many short-lived thermals. Finally, our results suggest that for the majority of in-cloud cumulus thermals the important role of environmental moisture in the deepening of convection results mainly from providing the initial moisture for the short-lived thermals as they initiate at different altitudes above cloud base, rather than favoring their buoyancy as they rise through it.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 2015
Abstract: The fluctuation–dissipation theorem (FDT) has been proposed as a method of calculating the mean response of the atmosphere to small external perturbations. This paper explores the application of the theory under time and space constraints that approximate realistic conditions. To date, most applications of the theory in the climate context used univariate, low-dimensional-state representations of the climate system and an arbitrarily long s le size. The authors explore high-dimensional multivariate FDT operators and the lower bounds of s le size needed to construct skillful operators. It is shown that the skill of the operator depends on the selection of variables and features representing the climate system and that these features change once memory (slab ocean) is added to the system. In addition, it is found that the FDT operator has skill in estimating the response to realistic sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), despite the fact that these patterns were not part of the data used to produce the operator. The response of clouds is also studied for variables that represent cloud properties, the decrease in skill in relation to decrease in s le size still maintains the key features of the response.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-07-2010
Abstract: Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations warm the troposphere. However, it is not clear whether this implies changes in the energetics. To study the energetics responses to CO2 increases, changes in the Lorenz energy cycle (LEC) are evaluated using output from the atmosphere–ocean ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM). Equilibrium 2 × CO2 experiments and 10-yr transient experiments with 3% increase per year are analyzed. Globally, doubling of CO2 results in a decrease in the LEC strength—defined as the total conversion of available potential energy P into kinetic energy K—but also in an increase in the zonal-mean K. These global changes are a consequence of the strengthening of the LEC in the upper troposphere and the weakening of the cycle below. The two opposite responses result from the simulated warming pattern that shows the strongest warming in the upper tropical troposphere and in the lower troposphere at high latitudes. This warming structure causes changes in the horizontal temperature variance and in mean static stability, which increase zonal-mean P in the upper troposphere and decrease it below, triggering the two opposite responses via changes in baroclinic activity. In general, the lower-region weakening is stronger in the Northern Hemisphere, while the upper-region strengthening, and the increase of zonal-mean P and K, is stronger in the Southern Hemisphere. The former is more pronounced in the transient experiments but decreases in the stabilized 2 × CO2 climate.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 18-01-2022
Abstract: Abstract. One fundamental question about atmospheric moist convection processes that remains debated is whether, or under which conditions, a relevant variability in background aerosol concentrations may have a significant dynamical impact on convective clouds and their associated precipitation. Furthermore, current climate models must parameterize both the microphysical and the cumulus convection processes, but this is usually implemented separately, whereas in nature there is a strong coupling between them. As a first step to improve our understanding of these two problems, we investigate how aerosol concentrations modify key properties of updrafts in eight large-eddy-permitting regional simulations of a case study of scattered convection over Houston, Texas, in which convection is explicitly simulated and microphysical processes are parameterized. Dynamical and liquid-phase microphysical responses are investigated using the following two different reference frames: static cloudy updraft grid cells versus tracked cumulus thermals. In both frameworks, we observe the expected microphysical responses to higher aerosol concentrations, such as higher cloud number concentrations and lower rain number concentrations. In terms of the dynamical responses, both frameworks indicate weak impacts of varying aerosol concentrations relative to the noise between simulations over the observationally derived range of aerosol variability for this case study. On the other hand, results suggest that thermals are more selective than cloudy updraft grid cells in terms of s ling the most active convective air masses. For instance, vertical velocity from thermals is significantly higher at upper levels than when s led from cloudy updraft grid points, and several microphysical variables have higher average values in the cumulus thermal framework than in the cloudy updraft framework. In addition, the thermal analysis is seen to add rich quantitative information about the rates and covariability of microphysical processes spatially and throughout tracked thermal lifecycles, which can serve as a stronger foundation for improving subgrid-scale parameterizations.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 19-07-2021
DOI: 10.5194/ACP-2021-586
Abstract: Abstract. One fundamental question about atmospheric moist convection processes that remains debated is whether or under what conditions a relevant variability in background aerosol concentrations may have a significant dynamical impact on convective clouds and their associated precipitation. Furthermore, current climate models must parameterize both the microphysical and the cumulus convection processes, but this is usually implemented separately, whereas in nature there is a strong coupling between them. As a first step to improve our understanding of these two problems, we investigate how aerosol concentrations modify key properties of updrafts in eight large-eddy permitting regional simulations of a case study of scattered convection over Houston, Texas, in which convection is explicitly simulated and microphysical processes are parameterized. Dynamical and liquid-phase microphysical responses are investigated using two different reference frames: static cloudy-updraft grid cells versus tracked cumulus thermals. In both frameworks we observe the expected microphysical responses to higher aerosol concentrations, such as higher cloud number concentrations and lower rain number concentrations. In terms of the dynamical responses, both frameworks indicate weak impacts of varying aerosol concentrations relative to the noise between simulations over the observationally derived range of aerosol variability for this case study. On the other hand, results suggest that analysis of thermals can provide a better pathway to s le the most relevant convective processes. For instance, vertical velocity from thermals is significantly higher at upper levels than when s led from cloudy-updraft grid points, and several microphysical variables have higher average values in the cumulus thermal framework than in the cloudy-updraft framework. In addition, the thermal analysis is seen to add rich quantitative information about the rates and covariability of microphysical processes spatially and throughout tracked thermal lifecycles, which can serve as a stronger foundation for improving subgrid-scale parameterizations. These results suggest that cumulus thermals are more realistic dynamical building blocks of cumulus convection, acting as natural cloud chambers for microphysical processes.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 28-09-2016
Abstract: Although the steady, entraining, updraft plume is widely taken as the foundational concept of cumulus convection, past studies show that convection is typically dominated by thermals that are transient, more isotropic in shape, and possess interior vortical circulations. Here, several thousand such thermals are tracked in cloud-resolving simulations of transient growing convective events. Most tracked thermals are small (with radius R & 300 m), ascend at moderate rates (~ 2–4 m s−1), maintain an approximately constant size as they rise, and have brief (4–5 min) lifetimes, although a few are much larger, faster, and/or longer lived. They show slight vertical elongation, but few, if any, would be described as plumes. As convection deepens, thermals originate higher up, are larger, and rise faster, although radius and ascent rate are only weakly correlated among in idual thermals. The main force opposing buoyancy is a nonhydrostatic pressure drag, not mixing of momentum. This drag can be expressed in terms of a drag coefficient cd that decreases as convection intensifies: deep convective thermals are less d ed, with cd ~ 0.2, while shallow convective thermals are more d ed, with cd ~ 0.6. The expected dependence of cd based on theoretical form and wave drag coefficients for a solid sphere is inconsistent with these results, since it predicts the opposite dependence on the Froude number. Thus, a theory for drag on cumulus thermals is not straightforward. Overall, it is argued that thermals are a more realistic prototype for atmospheric deep convection than plumes, at least for the less organized convection types simulated here.
Publisher: SPIE
Date: 26-08-2007
DOI: 10.1117/12.760496
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 18-10-2023
DOI: 10.1029/2023GL104159
No related grants have been discovered for Daniel Hernandez-Deckers.