ORCID Profile
0000-0002-0680-0098
Current Organisations
NIWA - The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd.
,
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
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Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-07-2023
Abstract: Abstract. Based on Nationally Determined Contributions concurrent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 2-4.5, the IPCC predicts global warming of 2.1–3.5 ∘C (very likely range 10–90th percentile) by 2100 CE. However, global average temperature is a poor indicator of regional warming and global climate models (GCMs) require validation with instrumental or proxy data from geological archives to assess their ability to simulate regional ocean and atmospheric circulation, and thus, to evaluate their performance for regional climate projections. The south-west Pacific is a region that performs poorly when GCMs are evaluated against instrumental observations. The New Zealand Earth System Model (NZESM) was developed from the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM) to better understand south-west Pacific response to global change, by including a nested ocean grid in the south-west Pacific with 80 % greater horizontal resolution than the global-scale host. Here, we reconstruct regional south-west Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP 3.3–3.0 Ma), which has been widely considered a past analogue with an equilibrium surface temperature response of +3 ∘C to an atmospheric CO2 concentration of ∼350–400 ppm, in order to assess the warming distribution in the south-west Pacific. This study presents proxy SSTs from seven deep sea sediment cores distributed across the south-west Pacific. Our reconstructed SSTs are derived from molecular biomarkers preserved in the sediment – alkenones (i.e. U37K′ index) and isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (i.e. TEX86 index) – and are compared with SSTs reconstructed from the Last Interglacial (125 ka), Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) outputs and transient climate model projections (NZESM and UKESM) of low- to high-range SSPs for 2090–2099 CE. Mean interglacial equilibrium SSTs during the mPWP for the south-west Pacific sites were on average 4.2 ∘C (1.8–6.1 ∘C likely range) above pre-industrial temperatures and show good agreement with model outputs from NZESM and UKESM under mid-range SSP 2–4.6 conditions. These results highlight that not only is the mPWP an appropriate analogue when considering future temperature change in the centuries to come, but they also demonstrate that the south-west Pacific region will experience warming that exceeds that of the global mean if atmospheric CO2 remains above 350 ppm.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-02-2023
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-02-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-2023-108
Abstract: Abstract. Based on Nationally-Determined Contributions concurrent with Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, the IPCC predicts global warming between 2.1–3.5°C (very likely range 10th–90th percentile) by 2100 AD. However, global average temperature is a poor indicator of regional warming and Global Climate Models (GCMs) require validation with instrumental or proxy data from geological archives to assess their ability to simulate regional ocean and atmospheric circulation, and thus, to evaluate their performance for regional climate projections. The Southwest Pacific is a region that performs poorly when GCMs are evaluated against instrumental observations. The New Zealand Earth System Model (NZESM) was developed from the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM) to better understand Southwest Pacific response to global change, by including a nested ocean grid in the Southwest Pacific with 80 % greater horizontal resolution than the global-scale host. Here, we reconstruct region Southwest Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) for the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP 3.3–3.0), which has been widely considered a past analogue with an equilibrium surface temperature response of +3 °C to an atmospheric CO2 concentration of ~350–400 ppm, to assess the warming distribution in the Southwest Pacific. This study presents proxy SSTs from seven deep sea sediment cores distributed across the Southwest Pacific. Our reconstructed SSTs are derived from molecular biomarkers preserved in the sediment – alkenones (i.e., U37K' index) and isoprenoid glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (i.e., TEX86 index) and are compared with SSTs reconstructed from the Last Interglacial (125 ka), Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) outputs and transient climate model projections (NZESM and UKESM) of low to high range SSPs for 2090–2099 AD. Mean interglacial equilibrium SSTs during the mPWP for the Southwest pacific sites, were on average, 4.2 °C (1.8–6.1 °C likely range) above pre-industrial and show good agreement with model outputs from NZESM and UKESM under mid-range SSP 2–4.6 conditions. These results highlight that not only is the mPWP an appropriate analogue when considering future temperature change in the centuries to come, but also demonstrate that the Southwest Pacific region will experience warming that exceeds that of the global mean if atmospheric CO2 remains above 350 ppm.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 05-06-2020
Abstract: Abstract. Southern Ocean (SO) shortwave (SW) radiation biases are a common problem in contemporary general circulation models (GCMs), with most models exhibiting a tendency to absorb too much incoming SW radiation. These biases have been attributed to deficiencies in the representation of clouds during the austral summer months, either due to cloud cover or cloud albedo being too low. The problem has been the focus of many studies, most of which utilised satellite datasets for model evaluation. We use multi-year ship-based observations and the CERES spaceborne radiation budget measurements to contrast cloud representation and SW radiation in the atmospheric component Global Atmosphere (GA) version 7.1 of the HadGEM3 GCM and the MERRA-2 reanalysis. We find that the prevailing bias is negative in GA7.1 and positive in MERRA-2. GA7.1 performs better than MERRA-2 in terms of absolute SW bias. Significant errors of up to 21 W m−2 (GA7.1) and 39 W m−2 (MERRA-2) are present in both models in the austral summer. Using ship-based ceilometer observations, we find low cloud below 2 km to be predominant in the Ross Sea and the Indian Ocean sectors of the SO. Utilising a novel surface lidar simulator developed for this study, derived from an existing Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) – active remote sensing simulator (ACTSIM) spaceborne lidar simulator, we find that GA7.1 and MERRA-2 both underestimate low cloud and fog occurrence relative to the ship observations on average by 4 %–9 % (GA7.1) and 18 % (MERRA-2). Based on radiosonde observations, we also find the low cloud to be strongly linked to boundary layer atmospheric stability and the sea surface temperature. GA7.1 and MERRA-2 do not represent the observed relationship between boundary layer stability and clouds well. We find that MERRA-2 has a much greater proportion of cloud liquid water in the SO in austral summer than GA7.1, a likely key contributor to the difference in the SW radiation bias. Our results suggest that subgrid-scale processes (cloud and boundary layer parameterisations) are responsible for the bias and that in GA7.1 a major part of the SW radiation bias can be explained by cloud cover underestimation, relative to underestimation of cloud albedo.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 05-04-2019
DOI: 10.5194/ACP-2019-201
Abstract: Abstract. Southern Ocean (SO) shortwave (SW) radiation biases are a common problem in contemporary general circulation models (GCMs), with most models exhibiting a tendency to absorb too much incoming SW radiation. These biases have been attributed to deficiencies in the representation of clouds during the austral summer months, either due to cloud cover or cloud optical thickness being too low. The problem has been the focus of many studies, most of which utilised satellite datasets for model evaluation. We use multi-year ship based observations and the CERES spaceborne radiation budget measurements to contrast cloud representation and SW radiation in the atmospheric component Global Atmosphere (GA) version 7.0 and 7.1 of the HadGEM3 GCM and the MERRA-2 reanalysis. We find that MERRA-2 is biased in the opposite direction to GA (reflects too much SW radiation). In addition, MERRA-2 performs better in terms of absolute SW bias than nudged runs of GA7.0 and GA7.1 in the 60–70° S latitude band. GA7.1 reduces the SO SW radiation biases relative to GA7.0, but significant errors remain at up to 20 W m−2 between 60 and 70° S in the austral summer months. Using ship-based ceilometer observations, we find low cloud below 2 km to be predominant in the Ross Sea and the Indian Ocean sector of the SO. Utilising a novel surface lidar simulator developed for this study, derived from an existing COSP-ACTSIM spaceborne lidar simulator, we find that GA7.0 and MERRA-2 both underestimate low cloud occurrence relative to the ship observations by 18–25 % on average, though the cloud cover in MERRA-2 is closer to observations by about 7 %. Based on radiosonde observations, we also find the low cloud to be strongly linked to boundary-layer atmospheric stability and the sea surface temperature. GA7.0 and MERRA-2 agree well with observations in terms of boundary-layer stability, suggesting that subgrid-scale parametrisations do not generate enough cloud in response to the thermodynamic profile of the atmosphere and the surface temperature. Our analysis shows that MERRA-2 has a much greater proportion of cloud liquid water in the SO in January than GA7.0, a likely key contributor to the difference in SW radiation. We show that boundary-layer stability and relative humidity fields are very similar in GA7.0 and MERRA-2, and unlikely to be the cause of the different cloud representation, suggesting that subgrid-scale parametrisations are responsible for the difference between the models.
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: New Zealand
Location: New Zealand
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
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