Dynamic Asset Pricing and Portfolio Decision Rules under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning. The outcomes of this project will provide two benefits to Australian financial market researchers in academe, in industry and financial market regulators. First, a better theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding and analysing optimal portfolio decision rules in a setting that captures many realistic features of market behaviour such as heterogeneity of investor types and adapt ....Dynamic Asset Pricing and Portfolio Decision Rules under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning. The outcomes of this project will provide two benefits to Australian financial market researchers in academe, in industry and financial market regulators. First, a better theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding and analysing optimal portfolio decision rules in a setting that captures many realistic features of market behaviour such as heterogeneity of investor types and adaptive behaviour by market participants. Second, new tools to more effectively understand and manage portfolio risk in financial markets. Consequently Australia will have a more efficient and competitive financial system. It also has the potential to lead to the development of more finance related industries such as financial market software.Read moreRead less
Approximation and Simulation of Large Diversified Portfolios. The measurement of risk for large diversified portfolios, consisting of primary securities and derivatives, will play a key role in future financial technology. Based on a new characterisation of asymptotic portfolios this project proposes the development, implementation and testing of highly efficient new approximate risk measurement methodologies suitable for portfolios with hundreds or thousands of instruments. Comparisons with sta ....Approximation and Simulation of Large Diversified Portfolios. The measurement of risk for large diversified portfolios, consisting of primary securities and derivatives, will play a key role in future financial technology. Based on a new characterisation of asymptotic portfolios this project proposes the development, implementation and testing of highly efficient new approximate risk measurement methodologies suitable for portfolios with hundreds or thousands of instruments. Comparisons with standard and new simulation methods will demonstrate their superiority. The outcomes of this project will give Australian industry an internationally competitive advantage in the measurement and management of risk for large diversified portfolios such as those of superannuation funds and banks.Read moreRead less
The Pricing and Hedging of Multi-Factor Multi-Commodity Based Swing Options. The partner organisation, an Australian based company, is a leading global player in providing risk management solutions to energy corporations world-wide. The advances of the project will help it to enhance Australia's role as a provider of practical implementation of the most recent academic advances in the area of risk management technology.
Developing a robust model for pricing inter-related volatility-based financial derivative contracts. Volatility-based financial contracts were developed in the late 1990s to provide an easy way for investors to gain exposure to the future level of volatility and thus provide a means by which they could speculate on its future levels and also hedge unpredictable volatility risk. This would potentially save them from losing vast quantities of money. However these products can only be efficient pr ....Developing a robust model for pricing inter-related volatility-based financial derivative contracts. Volatility-based financial contracts were developed in the late 1990s to provide an easy way for investors to gain exposure to the future level of volatility and thus provide a means by which they could speculate on its future levels and also hedge unpredictable volatility risk. This would potentially save them from losing vast quantities of money. However these products can only be efficient products for trading and risk management if they are priced correctly. This project will benefit investors by providing empirically viable models that will be able to be easily implemented to provide accurate and fast pricing solutions.Read moreRead less
The Modelling and Assessment of Credit Default Risk. This project will deliver an enhanced set of methodologies for the quantification and management of credit default risk. These outcomes will benefit researchers both in academia and in Australian financial institutions as research into credit risk has been active in recent years, due to the impending adoption by financial institutions of the Basel II accord on risk assessment. The outcomes will provide a strong academic methodology applied to ....The Modelling and Assessment of Credit Default Risk. This project will deliver an enhanced set of methodologies for the quantification and management of credit default risk. These outcomes will benefit researchers both in academia and in Australian financial institutions as research into credit risk has been active in recent years, due to the impending adoption by financial institutions of the Basel II accord on risk assessment. The outcomes will provide a strong academic methodology applied to credit default risk by Australian financial institutions and the Australian financial regulator. This research has the potential to enhance the competitivemess of Australia's financial sector.Read moreRead less
The pricing and risk management of reverse mortgages in the Australian market. This project will develop new methodologies for the pricing of reverse mortgages and will examine how sensitive prices are to demographic and financial assumptions in our models. This will increase transparency in the reverse mortgage market for retired Australians and ensure they get a fair deal. Increasing pricing transparency will also reduce risks to the issuing banks both by facilitating securitization and by all ....The pricing and risk management of reverse mortgages in the Australian market. This project will develop new methodologies for the pricing of reverse mortgages and will examine how sensitive prices are to demographic and financial assumptions in our models. This will increase transparency in the reverse mortgage market for retired Australians and ensure they get a fair deal. Increasing pricing transparency will also reduce risks to the issuing banks both by facilitating securitization and by allowing more accurate modelling of capital costs for mortgages that remain on their balance sheet.Read moreRead less
Option pricing via path integrals: a new perspective. The risk management of derivative securities is a very exciting challenge for financial market researchers. The knowledge base resulting from this proposal will benefit both large financial institutions and Australia's financial system by creating a more competitive and efficient economic environment, which will inevitably lead to more gross domestic product (GDP) gains.Furthermore a large amount of software and numerical analysis work to be ....Option pricing via path integrals: a new perspective. The risk management of derivative securities is a very exciting challenge for financial market researchers. The knowledge base resulting from this proposal will benefit both large financial institutions and Australia's financial system by creating a more competitive and efficient economic environment, which will inevitably lead to more gross domestic product (GDP) gains.Furthermore a large amount of software and numerical analysis work to be developed during the project can be turned into IP for Australia. This will contribute to catalysing development of internationally competitive financial risk management software industry.Read moreRead less
Pricing, Solvency and Capital Management in Insurance: New Perspectives from the Integration of Actuarial and Financial Economic Theory. This project will investigate the optimal level of capital, pricing and solvency for an insurance company in an equilibrium framework. It will include research on the impact of extreme events and dependence of risks on fair pricing and efficient use of capital. Billions of dollars of capital are under management in insurance companies in Australia alone. The co ....Pricing, Solvency and Capital Management in Insurance: New Perspectives from the Integration of Actuarial and Financial Economic Theory. This project will investigate the optimal level of capital, pricing and solvency for an insurance company in an equilibrium framework. It will include research on the impact of extreme events and dependence of risks on fair pricing and efficient use of capital. Billions of dollars of capital are under management in insurance companies in Australia alone. The convergence of insurance and financial markets and the recently highlighted importance of events such as the World Trade Centre Disaster on September 11, requires that these issues be addressed in an integrated research program combining actuarial and financial economic theory. New insights and understandings of optimal levels and types of capital and impacts on pricing will result. This is critical to the successful management and regulation of insurance and other financial service organisations.Read moreRead less
The modelling and estimation of volatility in energy markets. The growing trend of deregulation of energy markets poses important problems for users and suppliers of energy as well as for government policy makers. In particular it has become necessary to manage the risk of unexpected load and price fluctuations. One of the main challenges concerns the extreme volatility of prices and the evaluation of derivative prices and hedging ratios to take account of volatility. The outcomes of project wil ....The modelling and estimation of volatility in energy markets. The growing trend of deregulation of energy markets poses important problems for users and suppliers of energy as well as for government policy makers. In particular it has become necessary to manage the risk of unexpected load and price fluctuations. One of the main challenges concerns the extreme volatility of prices and the evaluation of derivative prices and hedging ratios to take account of volatility. The outcomes of project will be of benefit to all participants in Australian energy markets who need to use derivative positions to hedge energy risk. This issue has become important due to the increasing national focus on efficient use of energy resources.Read moreRead less
New models and valuation methods for portfolio credit derivatives. Portfolio credit derivatives provide a mechanism to simultaneously transfer credit exposures to a large number of counterparties within a single transaction. However, no generally accepted valuation model for such credit portfolios is currently available. This project aims to develop new mathematically-based technologies to allow institutions such as Westpac (the Industry Partner) to optimally manage their credit exposures. The o ....New models and valuation methods for portfolio credit derivatives. Portfolio credit derivatives provide a mechanism to simultaneously transfer credit exposures to a large number of counterparties within a single transaction. However, no generally accepted valuation model for such credit portfolios is currently available. This project aims to develop new mathematically-based technologies to allow institutions such as Westpac (the Industry Partner) to optimally manage their credit exposures. The outcome will be a class of superior models and operational risk management tools that will ensure the value and risks of these transactions are properly understood and accurately quantified. These models will enhance both the knowledge base of the industry and academic scholarship.
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