Socio-economic determinants of future fertility trends in Australia and other developed countries. Future demographic trends will do much to determine Australia's future. Fertility levels will dominate in deciding population numbers, age structure, and the optimum balance between natural increase and immigration. Current ARC-supported research on the theory of demographic transition provides a paradigm for forecasting likely trends, especially when employed with an existing data bank of findings ....Socio-economic determinants of future fertility trends in Australia and other developed countries. Future demographic trends will do much to determine Australia's future. Fertility levels will dominate in deciding population numbers, age structure, and the optimum balance between natural increase and immigration. Current ARC-supported research on the theory of demographic transition provides a paradigm for forecasting likely trends, especially when employed with an existing data bank of findings on social and demographic interrelations. The research is of great national benefit because even small differences in age structure will impact significantly on the size of the labour force, health services, the support of the aged and taxation levels. Relevant policy decisions will need to be made in the near future.Read moreRead less
Interactive Demographic Transition: Analysis and Theory. The demographic transition, or decline in mortality and fertility levels to produce the modern small family and normally long-lived individuals, may well be the most important social change of our time. It has occasioned much research but theory is still in disarray. This is at least partly explained by a disregard for feed-back mechanisms in the form of organized movements supporting and opposing such demographic change. My aim is to r ....Interactive Demographic Transition: Analysis and Theory. The demographic transition, or decline in mortality and fertility levels to produce the modern small family and normally long-lived individuals, may well be the most important social change of our time. It has occasioned much research but theory is still in disarray. This is at least partly explained by a disregard for feed-back mechanisms in the form of organized movements supporting and opposing such demographic change. My aim is to reanalyze data from my own and others? work, taking such interactions into account, to produce a demographic transition theory suited both to historical explanation and the guidance of contemporary policy.Read moreRead less