Bayesian Statistical Inference for Implicitly defined Probability Models. Bayesian statistics has recently been used to provide solutions for a large number of hitherto intractable problems in science and technology. The success of Bayesian statistics has mainly been due to the application of so-called Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques. We aim to improve these algorithms, by providing fast, simple and efficient computational implementations. We will use the results to give ins ....Bayesian Statistical Inference for Implicitly defined Probability Models. Bayesian statistics has recently been used to provide solutions for a large number of hitherto intractable problems in science and technology. The success of Bayesian statistics has mainly been due to the application of so-called Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques. We aim to improve these algorithms, by providing fast, simple and efficient computational implementations. We will use the results to give insight by carefully quantifying and modelling uncertainty for such topics as the transmission rate of infectious diseases, the spatial distribution of plant and animal species, investigating biological theory for the genome of a virus, and changes in human fertility.Read moreRead less
New mathematical and statistical methods that inform the control of infectious disease outbreaks. Emerging infectious diseases are an ever-present threat to our community, as highlighted by the recent SARS epidemic and current fears concerning avian influenza. The research proposed by this project will help policy makers implement effective border control and outbreak control against a variety of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, including SARS, influenza and the deliberate release o ....New mathematical and statistical methods that inform the control of infectious disease outbreaks. Emerging infectious diseases are an ever-present threat to our community, as highlighted by the recent SARS epidemic and current fears concerning avian influenza. The research proposed by this project will help policy makers implement effective border control and outbreak control against a variety of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, including SARS, influenza and the deliberate release of an infectious disease such as smallpox. The project will enhance preparedness through a better understanding of the relative merits of different control strategies, and provide new methodology that can dynamically guide border and outbreak control in the midst of an outbreak by making effective use of data. Read moreRead less
Understanding spatial trends in HIV/AIDS infections in South Africa and Australia. This project will develop quantitative methods that will be used to inform public health officials in understanding past and current HIV/AIDS epidemics as well as planning for the future of these epidemics. It will understand not only the behavioural and demographic characteristics of importance as risk factors for HIV infection in South Africa, the epicentre of the global HIV pandemic, but also the geographical s ....Understanding spatial trends in HIV/AIDS infections in South Africa and Australia. This project will develop quantitative methods that will be used to inform public health officials in understanding past and current HIV/AIDS epidemics as well as planning for the future of these epidemics. It will understand not only the behavioural and demographic characteristics of importance as risk factors for HIV infection in South Africa, the epicentre of the global HIV pandemic, but also the geographical spatial locations in which HIV cases are likely to emerge in the future. This project will also forecast the future geographical trends in Australia's changing HIV epidemic in order to plan for intervention strategies and prepare clinical practice appropriately.Read moreRead less
Simulating viral evolution and genetic complexity. This project has direct relevance to understanding the growth of viral infections, and therefore has possible practical applications in disease research and control. Examples of these are emerging diseases in humans such as those caused by HIV-1, SARS coronavirus and Dengue virus, which cause considerable human suffering throughout the world. A major part of current research into these diseases involves attempts to model the evolutionary geneti ....Simulating viral evolution and genetic complexity. This project has direct relevance to understanding the growth of viral infections, and therefore has possible practical applications in disease research and control. Examples of these are emerging diseases in humans such as those caused by HIV-1, SARS coronavirus and Dengue virus, which cause considerable human suffering throughout the world. A major part of current research into these diseases involves attempts to model the evolutionary genetics and dynamics of virus populations in order to understand how to control epidemics, develop vaccines and design drugs. The research program is designed to provide new computational modelling tools for this purpose, which may have wider applications as well.
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Statistical and mathematical modelling to improve health care outcomes in hospitals. The aim of this project is to develop new quantitative techniques based on mathematical and statistical modelling that improve the outcomes of health care in hospitals. Hospital outcomes for patients are sub-optimal due to adverse events such as hospital acquired infections and fully stretched facilities. Research from this project will lead to resource usage being optimised using operations research; the tra ....Statistical and mathematical modelling to improve health care outcomes in hospitals. The aim of this project is to develop new quantitative techniques based on mathematical and statistical modelling that improve the outcomes of health care in hospitals. Hospital outcomes for patients are sub-optimal due to adverse events such as hospital acquired infections and fully stretched facilities. Research from this project will lead to resource usage being optimised using operations research; the transmission of hospital acquired infections being better understood using mathematical models; and better monitoring of adverse events and analyses of studies using statistical tools. Opportunities will be provided for hospital staff to acquire knowledge of the significance of these outcomes .Read moreRead less